Thank you Hairy, thank you heslo.
I have had almost no appetite, but this morning I woke up around six o clock (after going to sleep at about 3 in the afternoon, yes that's how much I sleep) and was hungry as a bear after winter, and had a craving for a hamburger.
So, Bic mac and co, coffee with lots of milk, and apple pie. The biggest meal i have had for weeks.
Is that how much you usually sleep or because of the virus? No, it's because of the virus. I do sleep a lot normally, but seldom more than ten ours. |
|
|
|
|
Thank you Hairy, thank you heslo.
I have had almost no appetite, but this morning I woke up around six o clock (after going to sleep at about 3 in the afternoon, yes that's how much I sleep) and was hungry as a bear after winter, and had a craving for a hamburger.
So, Bic mac and co, coffee with lots of milk, and apple pie. The biggest meal i have had for weeks.
|
|
|
|
Just popped in to tell you that I'm slowly getting my sense of smell back, never lost taste, but everything tasted bland and insipid.
Had a big mac today and it tasted good (don't worry, I used the drive through).
Did you get COVID-19? Maybe you mentioned it, but I missed it, too busy with stuff IRL... Yes I did, never got tested but I have all the symptoms. No you didn't miss anything, I haven't said anything about it until now. Fever, headache, loss of smell, tired as a bear in winter, and cough, witch I from now on will spell koff, bikårs aj kant be bodered to think in English spelling rajt nau. Going back to bed, take care guys. Edit: Got it from my brother and/or his wife, he's about five or six days ahead of me, and he said yesterday that he was feeling pretty good, but he's not in a risk group, so fingers crossed. His wife on the other hand, is in bed with a high fever. |
|
|
|
|
Just popped in to tell you that I'm slowly getting my sense of smell back, never lost taste, but everything tasted bland and insipid.
Had a big mac today and it tasted good (don't worry, I used the drive through).
|
|
|
|
I am going to post something quite unpopular. It will make some people mad at me. This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now. I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.
The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response. The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast. With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state. Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days. In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.
We have extremely bad economic data. On some readings, the data is worse than the Great Depression. This puts the political leadership at both State and Federal level under enormous pressure to reopen. So I can understand why they are doing it, particularly given there is not the appetite for the social welfare schemes which have been rolled out in other countries to support workers staying in their jobs.
But know this. By half-arsing the lockdown and pulling out too early, and then triggering a crushing second wave in late summer / early fall, the economy will get refucked. The number one mistake is thinking that fighting the virus and supporting the economy are mutually opposed aims. They aren't. Crush the virus and you can have a thriving economy back. Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy. Because when your hospitals overflow and your doctors are all dying and there are bodies in the street, there will not be a functioning economy. Reopening now, before adequate testing and tracing is available, and while case loads are still rising, is an act of surrender.
The consequences are not going to flow immediately. Things are going to feel just fine through the next couple of months of summer. It will be warm out. People will say that the warm weather killed the virus. Everyone will be outdoors, drinking beer and having a nice time. Food and bev will start to do a roaring trade again. People will think we are winning. There will be cluster outbreaks which will be blamed on poor management by the Governors. Some regional hospitals will be overwhelmed, but they will be a long way away.
But come late summer or early fall, shit is going to start to become visibly bad. We know the second wave of the Spanish Flu killed far more than the first wave. 195,000 Americans died of the Spanish Flu in the month of October 1918. There are 328 million people in the US. The Lancet estimates the Case Fatality Rate of coronavirus at 1.38%. Australia's actual Case Fatality Rate is 1.33%, which is one of the lowest CFRs in the world, reflecting a world class health care which is not under stress and massive testing, increasing the size of the denominator. If half of the US population catches coronavirus, and the CFR is optimistically 1.33%, then that is 4.3 million deaths across America. If the hospitals collapse, the death toll has the potential to get much higher.
I think the reality is we will not get there, and there will be a series of smaller state level, or town level lockdowns. This rolling wave of small lockdowns will fuck the economy good and will spark open conflict between the White House and State / local government.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand. I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November. The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%. Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy. Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders. People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.
My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020. Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage). So be defensive and don't hold open long positions past the halvening.
Good luck and stay safe.
A. Sweden disagrees B. The actual fatality rate among infected is somewhere between 0,36 and 0,2 according to the latest studies in Europe. Not this again... Most of these fatalities stay one or two weeks in a hospital, take up quite some resources like ventilators and have to be quarantined in ICUs. Do you grasp the gravitiy of this? You are an idiot. We are doing this right now, right here. We have doubled our number of ICU beds in less than a month, and we are not using them all, not even close. Is that so hard for you to grasp? Or do you just like to be locked up buy your government? you are Austrian after all, you guys love hard disciplin, so history shows us. Just compare the infection charts of Austria and see who's doing it wrong, in respect to the fact we were a main european covid hub in february. It's even not over yet, and Hairy already pointed out that numbers aren't to be easily compared because of different base variables (number of testings). At least i'm clever enough for an idiot to understand this  EDIT: The rest of your "argument" is just nonsense based on prejudice. You don't seem to understand that we don't want a low infection rate, we want a slow infection rate. We accept the virus as part of our reality, we don't lock anybody up, all businesses are open as usual, distancing is practiced, but it is a recommendation, not a law, no cop will arrest you if you hug anyone. And I really, really, prefer it this way. |
|
|
|
Liechtenstein had a total lockdown and their deaths were only 2905 from COVID. So obviously total lockdown is the way to go considering the number of deaths is lower.
Yes, I suppose 2905 out of 38,000 is a whole lot less than 3220 out of 10,000,000. Seen any good movies lately? You are not good at detecting irony, are you. |
|
|
|
A. Sweden disagrees
B. The actual fatality rate among infected is somewhere between 0,36 and 0,2 according to the latest studies in Europe.
Sweden has a Case Fatality Rate of 12.3%. Obviously the real CFR is lower than that, but impossible to tell what it really is due to lack of testing.  So? You can't use Swedens fatality rates for anything, only cases in hospital are being tested, that gives you numbers that are useless. As I said, the latest European studies in Germany and Italy, among other places, where there are villages/regions where just about everyone is tested, show a fatality rate among infected of about 0,36-0,2 % And where the hell did you get the idea that healthy people who get infected will die in 60 days? You are starting to sound like Ibian |
|
|
|
I am going to post something quite unpopular. It will make some people mad at me. This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now. I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.
The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response. The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast. With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state. Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days. In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.
We have extremely bad economic data. On some readings, the data is worse than the Great Depression. This puts the political leadership at both State and Federal level under enormous pressure to reopen. So I can understand why they are doing it, particularly given there is not the appetite for the social welfare schemes which have been rolled out in other countries to support workers staying in their jobs.
But know this. By half-arsing the lockdown and pulling out too early, and then triggering a crushing second wave in late summer / early fall, the economy will get refucked. The number one mistake is thinking that fighting the virus and supporting the economy are mutually opposed aims. They aren't. Crush the virus and you can have a thriving economy back. Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy. Because when your hospitals overflow and your doctors are all dying and there are bodies in the street, there will not be a functioning economy. Reopening now, before adequate testing and tracing is available, and while case loads are still rising, is an act of surrender.
The consequences are not going to flow immediately. Things are going to feel just fine through the next couple of months of summer. It will be warm out. People will say that the warm weather killed the virus. Everyone will be outdoors, drinking beer and having a nice time. Food and bev will start to do a roaring trade again. People will think we are winning. There will be cluster outbreaks which will be blamed on poor management by the Governors. Some regional hospitals will be overwhelmed, but they will be a long way away.
But come late summer or early fall, shit is going to start to become visibly bad. We know the second wave of the Spanish Flu killed far more than the first wave. 195,000 Americans died of the Spanish Flu in the month of October 1918. There are 328 million people in the US. The Lancet estimates the Case Fatality Rate of coronavirus at 1.38%. Australia's actual Case Fatality Rate is 1.33%, which is one of the lowest CFRs in the world, reflecting a world class health care which is not under stress and massive testing, increasing the size of the denominator. If half of the US population catches coronavirus, and the CFR is optimistically 1.33%, then that is 4.3 million deaths across America. If the hospitals collapse, the death toll has the potential to get much higher.
I think the reality is we will not get there, and there will be a series of smaller state level, or town level lockdowns. This rolling wave of small lockdowns will fuck the economy good and will spark open conflict between the White House and State / local government.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand. I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November. The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%. Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy. Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders. People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.
My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020. Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage). So be defensive and don't hold open long positions past the halvening.
Good luck and stay safe.
A. Sweden disagrees B. The actual fatality rate among infected is somewhere between 0,36 and 0,2 according to the latest studies in Europe. Not this again... Most of these fatalities stay one or two weeks in a hospital, take up quite some resources like ventilators and have to be quarantined in ICUs. Do you grasp the gravitiy of this? You are an idiot. We are doing this right now, right here. We have doubled our number of ICU beds in less than a month, and we are not using them all, not even close. Is that so hard for you to grasp? Or do you just like to be locked up buy your government? you are Austrian after all, you guys love hard disciplin, so history shows us. |
|
|
|
I am going to post something quite unpopular. It will make some people mad at me. This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now. I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.
The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response. The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast. With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state. Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days. In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.
We have extremely bad economic data. On some readings, the data is worse than the Great Depression. This puts the political leadership at both State and Federal level under enormous pressure to reopen. So I can understand why they are doing it, particularly given there is not the appetite for the social welfare schemes which have been rolled out in other countries to support workers staying in their jobs.
But know this. By half-arsing the lockdown and pulling out too early, and then triggering a crushing second wave in late summer / early fall, the economy will get refucked. The number one mistake is thinking that fighting the virus and supporting the economy are mutually opposed aims. They aren't. Crush the virus and you can have a thriving economy back. Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy. Because when your hospitals overflow and your doctors are all dying and there are bodies in the street, there will not be a functioning economy. Reopening now, before adequate testing and tracing is available, and while case loads are still rising, is an act of surrender.
The consequences are not going to flow immediately. Things are going to feel just fine through the next couple of months of summer. It will be warm out. People will say that the warm weather killed the virus. Everyone will be outdoors, drinking beer and having a nice time. Food and bev will start to do a roaring trade again. People will think we are winning. There will be cluster outbreaks which will be blamed on poor management by the Governors. Some regional hospitals will be overwhelmed, but they will be a long way away.
But come late summer or early fall, shit is going to start to become visibly bad. We know the second wave of the Spanish Flu killed far more than the first wave. 195,000 Americans died of the Spanish Flu in the month of October 1918. There are 328 million people in the US. The Lancet estimates the Case Fatality Rate of coronavirus at 1.38%. Australia's actual Case Fatality Rate is 1.33%, which is one of the lowest CFRs in the world, reflecting a world class health care which is not under stress and massive testing, increasing the size of the denominator. If half of the US population catches coronavirus, and the CFR is optimistically 1.33%, then that is 4.3 million deaths across America. If the hospitals collapse, the death toll has the potential to get much higher.
I think the reality is we will not get there, and there will be a series of smaller state level, or town level lockdowns. This rolling wave of small lockdowns will fuck the economy good and will spark open conflict between the White House and State / local government.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand. I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November. The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%. Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy. Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders. People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.
My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020. Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage). So be defensive and don't hold open long positions past the halvening.
Good luck and stay safe.
A. Sweden disagrees B. The actual fatality rate among infected is somewhere between 0,36 and 0,2 according to the latest studies in Europe. |
|
|
|
Scary times ahead.
Nah. The middle classes are crap and uptight. I should know as I used to be one. We will move back into a world that we were built to understand. We will till the fields in the day time. In the evening the laird comes round and fucks your wife. And you if he's been drinking. You are scaring me, we have a local lord here and I have no wife. The house of Thott at Skabersjö estate actually. https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tott |
|
|
|
That would make a nice pin, (without the mask of course). |
|
|
|
yes, did not know how to conjure it from my keyboard.
It is a perfectly normal letter located right next to the L your keyboard must be missing some keys. No, on any civilized keyboard Ö is next to L. |
|
|
|
Man, the British guy with the banner is dressed like he's going to Alaska, while Mark Karpelès is dressed like he's going to the beach... Is it the fat or what? Yes it is. When I was younger I was a scrawny little thing and I was always cold. After my arthritis hindered me from exercising I got more like Mark and now I'm always hot, I wear t-shirts way in to the end of fall. |
|
|
|
Went shopping today I saw a giant hashtag. What is the meaning?  |
|
|
|
The pictures I say of these brutes were scarier.  They seem like they are playing out their personal fantasy more than anything else. Yes, but right now their personal fantasy and reality is one and the same, and that must be a great feeling for them. They are going to pester their grandchildren with these stories forever, |
|
|
|
besides, it is the pound sign, you fucking millennial twerps, put down the phone and get a fucking job
NO! I will wait for my corns to rise in number forever! You mean rise in # forever. |
|
|
|
hashtags are fucking stupid
One merit for you. |
|
|
|
I do not, I don't even know who Vegeta is (well, I understand that he is some kind of comic figure, but that's all I know). And I also do not know the thing with hashtag, seriously.
https://blog.hootsuite.com/social-media-glossary-definitions/A hashtag is a word or phrase preceded by the '#' sign. Hashtags are used on social media to tag posts as part of a larger conversation (such as #HODL) or topic (such as #Bitcoin). Clicking a hashtag reveals the latest posts that include the tag. Hashtags are searchable, and serve a similar role to keywords. hey Arrie..welcome to the internet Seriously? hashtags are clickable? I had no idea. Thanks for the information. And for your information, I was introduced to the internet in 2000 and there was no damn hashtags back then  |
|
|
|
By the way, we all know that vegetas power level is way above 9000 right?
Yes, bitcoin did make a big jump in last 24 hours.  No I mean it was Goku that had a power level over 9000. Vegeta was at least 3 times stronger at the time. 9k should be called a Kakarot. Goku, Vegeta, Kakarot. Are you having a stroke? And while we are on the subject of nonsense, can somebody please tell me what the thing with # is? Why do people put that hashtag in front of things? why is that a thing? To me # means "number" as in phone # 55509569. And also something used to access certain services on your landline telephone ...do you by chance not know who Kakarot is? I do not, I don't even know who Vegeta is (well, I understand that he is some kind of comic figure, but that's all I know). And I also do not know the thing with hashtag, seriously. |
|
|
|
By the way, we all know that vegetas power level is way above 9000 right?
Yes, bitcoin did make a big jump in last 24 hours. No I mean it was Goku that had a power level over 9000. Vegeta was at least 3 times stronger at the time. 9k should be called a Kakarot. Goku, Vegeta, Kakarot. Are you having a stroke? And while we are on the subject of nonsense, can somebody please tell me what the thing with # is? Why do people put that hashtag in front of things? why is that a thing? To me # means "number" as in phone # 55509569. And also something used to access certain services on your landline telephone |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
