That's for others to decide. Me? I only know that I don't know anything...

The good thing about data is that you really cannot argue with it: You can google the recent study showing the minimal increment in adoption of BTC (and none of non-BTC has ANY rate of adoption at all, lets make that perfectly clear). I believe it is -BTC- at only 5% more than it was in 2013, for all or 2014... so that's not arguable, is it?

BTCT is a place visited by the initiated only, not by any regular people at all -other than the newly interested, which are normally people without any money at all and average age 16. It in no way, shape or form reflects the levels of adoption of cryptocurrencies out there in the real world.

I don't have NXT, hate the client -because exchanges do-, so I cannot invest in this, can I?

I fully disagree: Regulation -and subsequent full compliance- is not just inevitable but necessary to eliminate the bad players. And, regardless of opinion, in USA it isn't just coming, it is already here, so I believe he is ahead of the curve and very intelligent in pre-empting rather than following.

Furthermore, altcoins -including BTC-, have failed miserably to serve an actual real life purpose so far. Adoption is minimal -and dwindling- and use case very limited (although expanding slowly). The idea behind PayCoin to line up tens of thousands of merchants IS indeed the right one towards the full adoption and usage in the real world. A real world that want to be protected against scams and don't care if it is centralized, decentralized or dances samba.

It is a major, major undertaking and he have jumped the gun on a couple of key things ... which will cost him, no question. But will the project fully materialize, survive and eventually thrive? No one knows at this stage.

I for one believe he has better chances than any other out there... but it is by no means an easy undertaking.

That's what makes life interesting, isn't it?

In any case, I try to reason quite profusely why I have an opinion and not a different one; you, on the other hand, emit your opinion solely based on the premise that you believe Garza is and will ultimately be, a scam artist forced to fly the US and lose everything he has here... just to scam people for whatever he can in the premine sale. To me that is peanuts, compared with what he will make doing the right thing, so I don't believe Garza is a particularly virtuous man, but an intelligent one. And that's why I believe he will do what is best and most profitable for himself.

But, again, that's just the reasoning for my opinion. I don't know what the reasoning for your is, so I cannot either compare or judge it on its merits if any.

Edit to add: If he gave XPY out of his will, with no obligation to do so, I believe it is a very nice gesture since they may not cost him anything buit they most definitely have current, corroborated exchangeable value.

Again, while he may have some customer that are not very happy -I have not found one, frankly- there are TONS of them quite happy to do repeated business with his company.... and with his new projects. He must have some nice kind of kool-aid at the ready...

I he says "gee guys, market forces, sorry, tried my best." it equals class action lawsuit, first, regulators after his ass immediately following. He loses all assets and has to flee or go to jail. So, sorry, but no easy way out with the money. He either puts up of loses everything, including his freedom. Like Bernie Madoff. Why would he do that when it costs him nothing to make good on his warranty AND he still will have his business AND new, very profitable ones, plus millions and millions of coins worth much more? Makes no sense at all...

In his forums he chooses to avoid conflict, which is different from avoiding "reasonable questions". Engaging in the forum would inevitable lead to enormous waste to time and effort... for no positive outcome, so why would he do it? He just updated what comes next for the project. There's absolutely no reason to answer 100 times the same questions and getting enraged by the same assumptions/speculation... why would he do that either?

At this point he's obviously not doing anything to manipulate the market in any way and just the bare minimum to keep the invested community updated as to the current development of the project. Which is wise and efficient. Let the chips fall where the may. Those doubting the outcome, will continue selling; those who expect positive things in the future will continue holding and price will reflect these market forces at play for the time being. No more story beyond raw speculation at this time.

My investment in XPY is very modest... even if I price it at the $20 exchange rate. And, like I said before, I trade it frequently. My most recent sale took place for a quick 13% profit a couple days ago and I sold at the 0.0087 level. I do have some coins I purchased much higher though... very modest nonetheless, as I stated before.

Trying to figure out others, especially extraordinarily successful individuals such as Garza, by assuming that "you" would do what they do, is an exercise in futility for what you do and have done has brought you to your present reality and what he has done up until now has brought him to quite a significantly different one. So no point in answering what would I do.  I can tell you what I believe, instead, which can be very off or very close to what he will do, in case you are interested... here it goes:

-- With the money he has already collected selling XPY to investors, he has SEVERAL MONTHS leeway to start exchanging 1 XPY for $20 in BTC. Many months or regaining 100% credibility -or close to that-, at no real expense to him because the exchange would be funded by that money already collected.

-- With that credibility reinstated and fool proofed, the price of XPY surely would go considerably higher, thus resulting in much more value for whatever is the remaining premined stake he holds: win-win. And still not a single penny coming out of his pocket.

-- Paybase will become a very solidly established exchange, fully compliant and with many more accounts than any other, certainly many more than Coinbase. put on that business the value that you deem reasonable... I believe it will be worth a fortune.

These are just three of the many possibilities -non- exclusive of each other- that I am sure he is or has considering/ed. All legit. All costing ZERO. All full of possibilities of sustained, great riches.

Now, following your line of thought, he will choose to exile himself and his family while keeping whatever money he's able to scam... it just doesn't stack up, to me, that is, as a viable alternative for him. Or for anyone else. You see, to me it is cheaper -saving legal costs, alone-, way cheaper, for him to do the right thing, the one he has announces and guaranteed he will do, more efficient -no exile, no legal battles- and ultimately much more profitable.

But that is just me, of course. And that is why I remain very modestly invested in XPY -and trading most of it when given the chance-. There are reasons, as you can see, sustaining my opinion and my position... I don't really see any supporting the former in your case.

I thinki you have it all wrong... Starting February 1st, you will have 30 days to claim your $20 per PayCoin by following the instructions that will be fully revealed on February 1st. So nothing actually will happen in 5 days, except people reactions to the official announcement of the rules to be followed.

This update/announcement also mentioned other products/features waiting for implementation (regulatory green light). So far -and will be for another month and 5 days-, he is on track with his commitments so, quite frankly, I find your assumptions and those of so many here, baseless speculation.

Wait and see would be the right attitude at this point but, who cares about right attitudes, right?

The  what it was for weeks. time to "feel for them" though will be when/if Garza doesn't comes through with his guarantee AND if the price is not over $20 by then. It seems to me price is stabilized and has found a bottom.  But i could be wrong.

What is true is that volume has come down to less than 10% of what it was for weeks.

By all means feel free to believe whatever you deem more suitable.

And this would surprise you I take?

Just how much would your opinion change if the price of BTC would be double, or triple, the current one, min a month or two? Do you remember the price at the time those promises were made?

Now, the current guarantee is in US Dollars, which makes things significantly different.

But, like I said, you are way more certain of the final outcome than I am... which is good because that way you avoid the investment subject altogether and not be caught regardless. Good for you.

Others though, would prefer to assume the risk hoping NOT to have to request the guaranteed pay out (because the price would be higher).

Within less than two weeks, we will have a much clearer picture.

Hopefully you are right and I'm wrong.  We will soon see either way.

Relatively speaking. Considering that the last 24 hours' volume has been basically 10% of what it has been since launch, it would appear that most people is just waiting.

But I don't know so you may be right, you appear to be certain about many more things than I do.

The influence in the price for the last couple of days is beyond evident. But it is ok if you choose to believe that MegaChat has nothing to do with it.

It seems to be a total waste of time to exchange anything here for the usual suspects are so set in advancing their agendas that regardless of any reality, no matter how evident, it would be an exercise in futility. Oh well...

If you are not going to believe the answer, what is the purpose of the question? Baffling...

XPY will reach $20 not in 6 months but in 2 weeks. At least for those benefiting from GAW's guarantee. In my opinion, Garza has no alternative but to make good on that warranty, so we will see long before 6 months pass.

You are misinformed. The new "savior" of the project is that chap of the funny cards, Julian Yap...

To the moon and shit, you know...

I visit and participate in a few threads, this one being one. I have traded this coin a few times and bought a little a couple of days ago hoping to sell above 8,000. Still have it.

I did not say that vior doesn't have value, what I implied is that the case-use, as of now, has limited if any value at all given the size and quality of its competition... which, by the way, is quite reflected in the price move since the MegaChat news hit. Will it has any value aside from the calls? I don't know... certainly not now. So, frankly, I believe it will rather quickly disappear into oblivion.... but I have been wrong before, so it may not only survive but even thrive... depending on what it becomes OTHER than a phone/video call means.

I don't plan on being around for long if that's what interests you. My expectations for profit in the trade have been already been quite diminished and will exit as soon as viable.

I hope this opinion of mine doesn't sink the price as some pretend it will do for I would much rather sell much higher than hold the bag, you follow?

No, I believe BTC will remain -and flourish-, for a long time, as a real alternative to FIAT. The others, well, they are definitely not "long term", but let them actually come to happen first... they are not ready for primetime -or anytime- just yet. Storj is both dumb and doomed, so scratch that one out; the pother two show some promise. Let's wait and see what they actually bring when they arrive. Whatever they bring, you can rest assured it won't be long term. It will be, best case scenario, NXT II. Sounds familiar?