Prediction 2: $24,177.25
bech32 address: bc1qeuvhugrlu8g34e8wl3s8dtm2k8mjf0khvqxmaf

I find this risky for various reasons:
* that company can be hacked (it will become a target an bugs can exist)
* AWS can get hacked
* some Amazon employee may try to look in there (dirrect access, correlations, sniffing)
* that company employees may take a look
* that company may get bankrupt
* mail accounts tend to be more hacked than many other online services
* and .. is this a custodian wallet? what if their hot wallet is hacked directly or they run with the coins?

Plus, yeah I don't believe in magic 

I think that what an exchange cares about is their own costs and maybe an edge against the competition.
So LN makes sense for them as long as it saves their costs (not yours) or if too many other exchanges are adding it.

Now, since LN withdrawals would save them costs, they seem to add LN there. Then they have to do their math very good and see how it's cheaper for them to rebalance/replenish their LN node to keep processing withdrawals. And one solution for that could be allowing the LN deposits (now I don't know how unbalanced is their deposits vs withdrawals ratio and that matters a lot in this).


So you have a "good" history of overpaying for your transactions. This doesn't mean you should underpay exactly now, but it may worth taking a look at mempool.space now and then and also learn more about how the fees work. Maybe also make sure you use a good wallet.


Keep in mind that any reason to pause withdrawals can be in exchanges' favor (the money is in their pocket and they can use it if they want to).
And keep in mind that since the exchanges don't like to see their transactions stuck for long, such a pause may only allow them change the fixed fee they use or improve their code for a dynamic fee that works for them.


It's not that easy. People will have to open a channel (i.e. on-chain transaction) or send coins to a custodian that has also LN capabilities (i.e. again on-chain tx, unless they first receive a withdrawal). Plus learn about a new wallet.
I do still expect quite some inertia in this.


Of course that they (still) prefer people withdraw wrapped bitcoin (especially on their chain) instead of the real deal.

From my knowledge of LN (please correct me if I'm wrong) the proper way to keep a channel up "forever" is to allow both deposits and withdrawals to it.
So it would not be a surprise if they will allow deposits too, sooner or later, since they may need to re-balance their node less often if they work like that.

Yep. Big fees, low price (because the reward has just doubled, right?), plus the prospect of artificially high difficulty when this money turns into more gears.
So... what's next? Disable Taproot with the message "sorry folks, this was a bad idea"?

...And I seem to need top post this once again. The coins are not in the wallet, they're "on the network".
So if you restore 100 wallets from the same seed, all will have access to the coins. That's why, if you plan to sell the old computer/HDD, even if at first you restore your wallet on the new device, it should be safer if you send your coins to a newly created wallet on new device (but not at the fees we have nowadays).

And if the amount of coins is significant and you are not a technical person, it may be safer to buy a hardware wallet and send your coins to that. Wallets with big money, on computers accessing the internet, especially Windows computers, are not a great idea nowadays.

Mersi, am participat. Am avut activitati de aer liber la sfarsitul saptamanii, asa ca a ramas pe locul doi forumul.
Si am facut si curatenie astazi. Ca, da, era necesara.

Edit: la concursul Utopia am ratat intrarea; poate ca o sa puna concursul urmator inainte sa se termine week-end-ul

Prediction 1: $36,828.34
bech32 address: bc1qeuvhugrlu8g34e8wl3s8dtm2k8mjf0khvqxmaf

64 NeuroticFish

Thank you for the raffles!

Cumva anuntul din topicul concursului a fost ratat de aplicatia de notificari, asa ca multumesc de 2 ori pentru felicitari
E interesant ca mai nou chiar merg de placere pe acolo, chiar daca nu prea vorbesc (nici eu) pe canal. In schimb "discut" in privat cu botul de chatGPT pe care l-au integrat 

At some point I had a significant amount of money at an exchange (bad idea, but I was lucky). I was trading without much of a clue what I'm doing (again, bad idea, but, again, I was lucky and I didn't lose) and I was lending using the exchange's feature (which has be proven later to have bugs and I think that some people have lost money).

Of course, the less risky step was to... sell some of my coins now and then or simply buy goods for bitcoin.
While the initial (rather stupid) moves were lucky and I didn't lose money with that, if I wouldn't have been spending... I would have had now quite a nice amount.

Yeah. He's in trouble again and asking again his questions.
He caught me too off guard for short time, but no more. He has to learn to at least re-read the answers he has already got.
Mea culpa, you were right.


  give it a little time, it shall pass.

Sadly for your effort in this, I really think that all OP cared about was a couple of click on that link.
I mean, come on, "confusing" (effort for) reordering of 12 words with (the effort for) actually finding the correct ones (from the BIP39 list) and also their positions already tells that OP has mixed up the apples with the oranges.
So yep, this sums it up:

* If the money is not under your own (and only your) control, it may very well never be yours.
* Anybody can write nice numbers onto a website. That doesn't necessarily mean they will ever give you any money related to those numbers.
* Handling money, doing business... this kind of things have to be done while one is cool. Rushing it, FOMO-ing, can easily end badly (mistakes, lack of double-checking egerything, money loss).

82 NeuroticFish

Thank you.

For start, it's not wise to keep your bitcoins in others' custody.
And without that there's no staking.

So the answer is: no. The custodian businesses are not regulated enough, they've not properly insured and the history shows that the real risk they transfer to their customers is far too big compared to the returns.
And since just keeping/holding bitcoin tends to give very nice returns over long enough periods of time... why taking unnecessary risks?

Under how many names you try to get this "donation" (heh)?
Does this look familiar? 

Sadly this also shows how badly I also start forgetting lately

If we look at Ledger's site we read:


If we Google for USB A port we find out how it looks like: it's the usual USB port from your laptop.


However, a Ledger Nano S/S plus should work with any data cable with the right plugs. At least mine does.

I'm not sure I can see any good reason people would transfer money to a complete newbie's website, no matter how shiny it is.
You may want to do something to get people start trusting you...

Plus: maybe it's just me, but I didn't find any company info on that website.

If you indeed want to do a honest business then you may have to do it better than this. However, you can take the advises or ignore them, no biggie.