How many ppcoins do you have in that wallet, and for how long have they been sitting there without moving?

(Note that any outgoing transaction can move funds of arbitrary incoming transactions in your wallet.)

since 17.03.13 ongoing incoming from mining (~2k)

any outgoing transaction can move funds of arbitrary incoming transactions

sorry , I don't understand this - why?

(have I to run always the ppcoind or always send ppcoins around?)

for me proof of stake is still a mystery

You

**should** run ppcoind all the time, but

**shouldn't** move around any funds if you want to mine proof of stake.

I'll assume that your balance consists of ~50 mined blocks with ~400 ppcoins each, and that you have mined them at a mostly constant rate.

This means that you mine about ~0.7 blocks per day, so ~29 of your blocks are older than 30 days. The younger ones are not eligible for proof of stake generation yet.

The proof of stake difficulty drops linear with the number of coin days destroyed in the "invested" funds, but it ignores the first 30 days. So if you have 400 coins that are 31 days old, the number of coin days destroyed for this calculation would be (31 - 30) * 400 = 400. This means that the chance to find a block (for each second) is 400 / (2^32 * pos_difficulty). The difficulty is ~3.22 at the moment, so your chance to find a block in one second using these funds is ~0.0000029%. Extrapolated to a day that is ~0.25%.

However this doesn't mean that you would find a block using these funds every 400 days (1/0.0025), because the probabilty increases as the funds get older. So on the next day, the probability to find a block would already be 0.5%, then 0.75%, and so on. (Up to a maximum of 60 counting days IIRC.)

Now this holds true for all of your unspent coins. So if we assume that you have 28 blocks that are older than 30 days, with these ages (in days):

31, 32, 34, 35, 37, 38, 40, 41, 42, 44, 45, 47, 48, 50, 51, 52, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 64, 65, 67, 68, 70

The probabilities of all of those will of course add up. If I calculated things correctly, this would mean that if your ppcoind would have been running all day (with an unlocked wallet), you should have generated about 1.5 proof of stake blocks (on average) today.

Sunny, please correct me if I'm wrong...