Cricket match prediction discussions

[JSRAW]

There was some provision on tenders that bidders are allowed to bid lower than the base price. This KSR guy is pretty reliable on money numbers, might not be accurate but 99% time he comes very close.

The recent bid was for just 4 years, in comparison to the previous deal which was 8 years (around $2 Billion or something) so it's possible that SONY bid was lower.

This is another thread from him. https://twitter.com/KShriniwasRao/status/1564226662656626689

Anyway, I guess the ICC got more than what they were expecting. Personally I was expecting somewhere in the range of $2.0 to $2.5 billion, given that the reserve price of $1.44 sounded a bit optimistic. Looks as if Disney-Star desperately wanted to win the media rights, since Ten Sports has grabbed the rights to bilateral series with most of the national boards. This bid by Disney-Star just proves how desperate they are. I am interested to know how much the ICC may get from the other regions. US/UK is also a lucrative market and is going in the next round.

After all, they have to keep engaged their 10s of million paid subscribers so desperation is very much understandable. Having said that the way other competitors submitted their bids conservatively, it does seems that Disney really overpaid here, another interesting factor is the timezone of 2024 T-20 WC (USA, WI), it's not suitable for IST.

[Juggy777]

There was some provision on tenders that bidders are allowed to bid lower than the base price. This KSR guy is pretty reliable on money numbers, might not be accurate but 99% time he comes very close.

The recent bid was for just 4 years, in comparison to the previous deal which was 8 years (around $2 Billion or something) so it's possible that SONY bid was lower.

This is another thread from him. https://twitter.com/KShriniwasRao/status/1564226662656626689

Anyway, I guess the ICC got more than what they were expecting. Personally I was expecting somewhere in the range of $2.0 to $2.5 billion, given that the reserve price of $1.44 sounded a bit optimistic. Looks as if Disney-Star desperately wanted to win the media rights, since Ten Sports has grabbed the rights to bilateral series with most of the national boards. This bid by Disney-Star just proves how desperate they are. I am interested to know how much the ICC may get from the other regions. US/UK is also a lucrative market and is going in the next round.

After all, they have to keep engaged their 10s of million paid subscribers so desperation is very much understandable. Having said that the way other competitors submitted their bids conservatively, it does seems that Disney really overpaid here, another interesting factor is the timezone of 2024 T-20 WC (USA, WI), it's not suitable for IST.

@JSRAW all OTT platform are facing serious competition hence I can understand why they over paid, and further this industry is very lucrative and thus what may look expensive for us may actually be a bargain for them considering that they’ll make a lot more as advertisers are paying premium amounts to advertise on OTT platform’s.

Big fours are formed because rest of the boards surrendered there rights to them. Recently women cricket is included in common wealth games but not men. The real reason is big 3 don't wanna cricket to have more counties that can challenge there authority.

They are afraid that their revenue may get impacted. If cricket is included in multi-sport events such as Olympics, then there is not much financial benefit for the ICC (or for the national boards). In the end, cricket is being administered by businessmen and their sole consideration is money. That is the reason why they don't want men's cricket in Olympics. Another reason is that for Olympics direct qualification is not allowed. Each and every team needs to take part in the qualifier tournament. This is not acceptable for boards such as the BCCI.

The biggest part of this all talk is they are afraid of get impacted in revenue which they don't want specially BCCI because they are big gainer and with this all they are not feeling good it's all understandable so if they are not happy then surely others can go by their own way which is also not bad at all.

BCCI not participated in these events because if they are not happy then surely they can leave this all for others which is also not bad and if they want to do then surely they can go with option like Under-23 teams or all teams can send their A team which is also not bad at all because in soccer they are mostly sending their Under-23 teams which are also good for the all countries and BCCI is not happy with qualifier it's really disgusting they have to follow all rules which are applicable and others are going through with them.

@Sithara007 I believe another fear is that Olympic’s could over shadow IPL in the long run, and BCCI will not allow any other tournament to steal IPL’s limelight hence it’s understandable why BCCI is so opposed to men’s team’s participation in the Olympic’s.

[kro55]

Big fours are formed because rest of the boards surrendered there rights to them. Recently women cricket is included in common wealth games but not men. The real reason is big 3 don't wanna cricket to have more counties that can challenge there authority.

They are afraid that their revenue may get impacted. If cricket is included in multi-sport events such as Olympics, then there is not much financial benefit for the ICC (or for the national boards). In the end, cricket is being administered by businessmen and their sole consideration is money. That is the reason why they don't want men's cricket in Olympics. Another reason is that for Olympics direct qualification is not allowed. Each and every team needs to take part in the qualifier tournament. This is not acceptable for boards such as the BCCI.

The biggest part of this all talk is they are afraid of get impacted in revenue which they don't want specially BCCI because they are big gainer and with this all they are not feeling good it's all understandable so if they are not happy then surely others can go by their own way which is also not bad at all.
BCCI not participated in these events because if they are not happy then surely they can leave this all for others which is also not bad and if they want to do then surely they can go with option like Under-23 teams or all teams can send their A team which is also not bad at all because in soccer they are mostly sending their Under-23 teams which are also good for the all countries and BCCI is not happy with qualifier it's really disgusting they have to follow all rules which are applicable and others are going through with them.

@Sithara007 and @wiss19 But aren’t having cricket as an Olympic sport going to increase the popularity of cricket?
Which in the future is going to increase the revenue eventually?
ICC is a big sports body and they should understand this. And they should also know that the big four are doing this just because they don’t want to lose their authority over the ICC.

@WatChe, It is true that if the other cricket boards just did not surrender their rights to the big four, there wouldn’t have been any big four.
But right now it is too late to come out of that situation. ICC is the one who needs to take steps.

[Sithara007]

After all, they have to keep engaged their 10s of million paid subscribers so desperation is very much understandable. Having said that the way other competitors submitted their bids conservatively, it does seems that Disney really overpaid here, another interesting factor is the timezone of 2024 T-20 WC (USA, WI), it's not suitable for IST.

They desperately wanted to tap in to the American market and that is the reason why they made United States co-hosts for 2024 world cup (thereby giving automatic qualification). I don't understand this logic. In that case when India hosts the next T20 World Cup, the BCCI can give 1-2 matches each to Nepal, Maldives, Bhutan and Myanmar, there by enabling these countries to qualify automatically.

BTW, I made some rough calculations regarding the ICC fund allocation for next cycle.

Disney-Star paid the ICC $2.1 billion for the last 8-year cycle (2015-23). And this was for world-wide rights. The amount allotted for distribution to member associations stood at $1.7 billion (with the remaining amount eaten up by administrative costs and other expenses).

This time, they are paying $3.04 billion just for India. If we give a conservative estimate of 80% of the revenues coming from India, ICC should be able to get around $3.75 billion for the next 4 years from media rights sale alone. That is around 350% higher (per year) than what was last time.

So ideally the fund allocation from the ICC should go up by 350% for all the countries from 2024 onwards. But the catch is that the BCCI can claim that 80% of the revenues come from India and therefore they should get a similar share.

[JSRAW]

After all, they have to keep engaged their 10s of million paid subscribers so desperation is very much understandable. Having said that the way other competitors submitted their bids conservatively, it does seems that Disney really overpaid here, another interesting factor is the timezone of 2024 T-20 WC (USA, WI), it's not suitable for IST.

They desperately wanted to tap in to the American market and that is the reason why they made United States co-hosts for 2024 world cup (thereby giving automatic qualification). I don't understand this logic. In that case when India hosts the next T20 World Cup, the BCCI can give 1-2 matches each to Nepal, Maldives, Bhutan and Myanmar, there by enabling these countries to qualify automatically.

Yeah, one of the main reasons but except desi audience, I don't think the average American is remotely interested in cricket and by doing so they are losing the Indian audience due to the timezone.

Not sure if it's possible for BCCI cause of technical (ICC) and Financial (Broadcasters) reasons.

BTW, I made some rough calculations regarding the ICC fund allocation for next cycle.

Disney-Star paid the ICC $2.1 billion for the last 8-year cycle (2015-23). And this was for world-wide rights. The amount allotted for distribution to member associations stood at $1.7 billion (with the remaining amount eaten up by administrative costs and other expenses).

This time, they are paying $3.04 billion just for India. If we give a conservative estimate of 80% of the revenues coming from India, ICC should be able to get around $3.75 billion for the next 4 years from media rights sale alone. That is around 350% higher (per year) than what was last time.

So ideally the fund allocation from the ICC should go up by 350% for all the countries from 2024 onwards. But the catch is that the BCCI can claim that 80% of the revenues come from India and therefore they should get a similar share.

Sounds about right.

I guess BCCI won't claim such a thing because they have never demanded a similar share even when BIG-3 system was in play.

BCCI will play safe and I'm sure they will try to expand IPL to more teams and duration from the next cycle. Having said that BCCI vs ICC struggle over tax issue is going to be interesting. India is hosting ODI WC.

[Sithara007]

Sounds about right.

I guess BCCI won't claim such a thing because they have never demanded a similar share even when BIG-3 system was in play.

BCCI will play safe and I'm sure they will try to expand IPL to more teams and duration from the next cycle. Having said that BCCI vs ICC struggle over tax issue is going to be interesting. India is hosting ODI WC.

Tax issue is going to be tricky. The probability is that BCCI will reimburse at least a part of the tax bill to ICC. That said, I don't understand this issue fully. I don't think that the TV rights can be taxed in India. So it is going to be the sponsorship and ticket sales. Is this amount going to be very high? But one thing is sure. The tax rates in India are too high, and that was one of the reasons why in 2021 the IPL was shifted to UAE. But even after taxes, the gate collection from India will be higher than the same from other countries.

[JSRAW]

Sounds about right.

I guess BCCI won't claim such a thing because they have never demanded a similar share even when BIG-3 system was in play.

BCCI will play safe and I'm sure they will try to expand IPL to more teams and duration from the next cycle. Having said that BCCI vs ICC struggle over tax issue is going to be interesting. India is hosting ODI WC.

Tax issue is going to be tricky. The probability is that BCCI will reimburse at least a part of the tax bill to ICC. That said, I don't understand this issue fully. I don't think that the TV rights can be taxed in India. So it is going to be the sponsorship and ticket sales. Is this amount going to be very high? But one thing is sure. The tax rates in India are too high, and that was one of the reasons why in 2021 the IPL was shifted to UAE. But even after taxes, the gate collection from India will be higher than the same from other countries.

For 2023 WC it should be around $70-100 Million. Government just wants to tax cricket because here in India cricket is the only sport that generates revenue for every party and they don't want to miss out.

ICC wants tax exemption and threatens BCCI of pulling out or detecting the amount from their existing share. Nah it was because of covid.

[doomloop]

@Sithara007 and @wiss19 But aren’t having cricket as an Olympic sport going to increase the popularity of cricket?
Which in the future is going to increase the revenue eventually?
ICC is a big sports body and they should understand this. And they should also know that the big four are doing this just because they don’t want to lose their authority over the ICC.

@WatChe, It is true that if the other cricket boards just did not surrender their rights to the big four, there wouldn’t have been any big four.
But right now it is too late to come out of that situation. ICC is the one who needs to take steps.

There is no doubt Olympics is going to be good for popularity of this game and have good attraction for many countries but as many members already mention it's directly going to be interaction with IPL which is not favorable for BCCI just because of this they are not going to allow this with their biggest share in this game they are doing all bad tactics for having their strong hold on this game and B-4 is strongly favoring them because they also have good profit from this IPL.

Here ICC is completely crap with having no good power and good market other than India for doing any positive thing even they can go ahead, but they are not taking any risk which is going to be the worst case for them in near future they must think about positively if they want to have good profit in the future.

[kro55]

-snip

There is no doubt Olympics is going to be good for popularity of this game and have good attraction for many countries but as many members already mention it's directly going to be interaction with IPL which is not favorable for BCCI just because of this they are not going to allow this with their biggest share in this game they are doing all bad tactics for having their strong hold on this game and B-4 is strongly favoring them because they also have good profit from this IPL.

Here ICC is completely crap with having no good power and good market other than India for doing any positive thing even they can go ahead, but they are not taking any risk which is going to be the worst case for them in near future they must think about positively if they want to have good profit in the future.

Cricket is inevitably dying. Even ICC will have to acknowledge that if they are being honest. But at the same time, they are also not doing anything to save this game.

At this moment if cricket was added to the Olympics, it would have been a great step taken for the best future of cricket. But it is very sad to say that I don’t see any urgency from ICC to do that. The bigger cricket boards are quite opposite of this. So I really don’t know what’s going to happen with cricket.

But one thing is sure with the introduction of the T-10 format cricket is going to get a lot more followers. A lot more teams are also going to be interested in cricket as well. But that might be happening at least two or three years later. Right now Olympics is the best option.

[Sithara007]

Cricket is inevitably dying. Even ICC will have to acknowledge that if they are being honest. But at the same time, they are also not doing anything to save this game.

At this moment if cricket was added to the Olympics, it would have been a great step taken for the best future of cricket. But it is very sad to say that I don’t see any urgency from ICC to do that. The bigger cricket boards are quite opposite of this. So I really don’t know what’s going to happen with cricket.

But one thing is sure with the introduction of the T-10 format cricket is going to get a lot more followers. A lot more teams are also going to be interested in cricket as well. But that might be happening at least two or three years later. Right now Olympics is the best option.

There was a lot of drama surrounding inclusion in the 2028 Olympics. ICC officials were claiming that they are trying their best to get cricket included for the 2028 Games. But then the International Olympic Committee (IOC) came up with a statement a few months ago, rejecting those claims. IOC stated that the ICC has shown no interest in getting cricket included, despite repeated reminders. Once this statement came out, the ICC guys panicked and they put forward an official application for the inclusion of cricket for the 2028 Games.  

[JSRAW]

Continuation of existing ICC media rights discussion.

I was listening to Twitter Spaces last night and it feels like a new narrative is going to build up in the coming days when ICC finalizes its media rights for everyone.

According to ICC Indian market makes up to 70% of their revenue and the rest of the world (majority of portion UK, Aus) contributes 30%.

The tricky situation is that if ICC fails to attract the remaining 30%, which is close to $900Million (based on a recent Indian media rights deal) then Indian share in generating revenue is going to up, the question is how much up it would go? If by any chance it goes close to 85-90% then expect more drama.

[Vaskiy]

Cricket is inevitably dying. Even ICC will have to acknowledge that if they are being honest. But at the same time, they are also not doing anything to save this game.

At this moment if cricket was added to the Olympics, it would have been a great step taken for the best future of cricket. But it is very sad to say that I don’t see any urgency from ICC to do that. The bigger cricket boards are quite opposite of this. So I really don’t know what’s going to happen with cricket.

But one thing is sure with the introduction of the T-10 format cricket is going to get a lot more followers. A lot more teams are also going to be interested in cricket as well. But that might be happening at least two or three years later. Right now Olympics is the best option.

There was a lot of drama surrounding inclusion in the 2028 Olympics. ICC officials were claiming that they are trying their best to get cricket included for the 2028 Games. But then the International Olympic Committee (IOC) came up with a statement a few months ago, rejecting those claims. IOC stated that the ICC has shown no interest in getting cricket included, despite repeated reminders. Once this statement came out, the ICC guys panicked and they put forward an official application for the inclusion of cricket for the 2028 Games.  

ICC doesn't want cricket to be included into Olympics. ICC doesn't want to loss it's control. The main one behind this seems to be BCCI, because they need to be on power as well as enjoy the money made out of cricket. For sure the leading cricket nations will fail while playing cricket in Olympics. There is no chance of adding ODI, because it isn't easy as playing T20.

[Sithara007]

Continuation of existing ICC media rights discussion.

I was listening to Twitter Spaces last night and it feels like a new narrative is going to build up in the coming days when ICC finalizes its media rights for everyone.

According to ICC Indian market makes up to 70% of their revenue and the rest of the world (majority of portion UK, Aus) contributes 30%.

The tricky situation is that if ICC fails to attract the remaining 30%, which is close to $900Million (based on a recent Indian media rights deal) then Indian share in generating revenue is going to up, the question is how much up it would go? If by any chance it goes close to 85-90% then expect more drama.

The Indian diaspora is getting bigger and bigger with each passing year. For example, in the United States, there were 4.46 million Indian Americans in the United States as per the 2020 Census, while 2.84 million was the number in 2010. On top of that, there are migrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh, West Indies.etc, who are interested in cricket. US is going to be a premium market this time around. I don't think that there will be similar growth in revenues from the UK, since cricket is sliding down in popularity there.

[JSRAW]

Continuation of existing ICC media rights discussion.

I was listening to Twitter Spaces last night and it feels like a new narrative is going to build up in the coming days when ICC finalizes its media rights for everyone.

According to ICC Indian market makes up to 70% of their revenue and the rest of the world (majority of portion UK, Aus) contributes 30%.

The tricky situation is that if ICC fails to attract the remaining 30%, which is close to $900Million (based on a recent Indian media rights deal) then Indian share in generating revenue is going to up, the question is how much up it would go? If by any chance it goes close to 85-90% then expect more drama.

The Indian diaspora is getting bigger and bigger with each passing year. For example, in the United States, there were 4.46 million Indian Americans in the United States as per the 2020 Census, while 2.84 million was the number in 2010. On top of that, there are migrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh, West Indies.etc, who are interested in cricket. US is going to be a premium market this time around. I don't think that there will be similar growth in revenues from the UK, since cricket is sliding down in popularity there.

I doubt if they are going to fetch a hefty amount from the USA despite a fair amount of immigrants. Disney is the US based so have to wait if they put out a tender for tv rights or OTT (preferred option) for just the US market.

Pundits are expecting $500 Million (many are being generous) from UK and Aus so let's see. 

[Sithara007]

Pundits are expecting $500 Million (many are being generous) from UK and Aus so let's see. 

I would still go with the figure of 80% market share from India. This would mean $3 billion from India and $750 million from rest of the world. Now I don't think that the majority will come from UK-AUS. Pakistan and Bangladesh may contribute at least $300 million, and then middle-east is also a lucrative market. I am expecting around $300 million from UK-AUS-NZ. US may contribute to somewhere around $100-200 million (including Canada). And I won't be surprised if the ICC manages to get somewhere around $1 billion from the rest of the world.

[JSRAW]

Pundits are expecting $500 Million (many are being generous) from UK and Aus so let's see.  

I would still go with the figure of 80% market share from India. This would mean $3 billion from India and $750 million from rest of the world. Now I don't think that the majority will come from UK-AUS. Pakistan and Bangladesh may contribute at least $300 million, and then middle-east is also a lucrative market. I am expecting around $300 million from UK-AUS-NZ. US may contribute to somewhere around $100-200 million (including Canada). And I won't be surprised if the ICC manages to get somewhere around $1 billion from the rest of the world.

Recent rights auctions were for the whole Indian subcontinent and according to broadcasters 95-97% are from India only and the way things are going in the subcontinent (Flood, economic, political unrest in Pakistan/Sri lanka) they are only relying on Indian market.

Edit

These numbers are from broadcasters.

[fuguebtc]

Continuation of existing ICC media rights discussion.

I was listening to Twitter Spaces last night and it feels like a new narrative is going to build up in the coming days when ICC finalizes its media rights for everyone.

According to ICC Indian market makes up to 70% of their revenue and the rest of the world (majority of portion UK, Aus) contributes 30%.

The tricky situation is that if ICC fails to attract the remaining 30%, which is close to $900Million (based on a recent Indian media rights deal) then Indian share in generating revenue is going to up, the question is how much up it would go? If by any chance it goes close to 85-90% then expect more drama.

It’s quite simple, isn’t it? ICC cannot tell them anything because they are the ones giving ICC a huge amount of money. And if ICC does decide to take a bold step and impose authority on the bigger cricket boards, especially India, obviously there will be a lot of drama around cricket. And ICC cannot quite frankly do that because they just don’t have that cross-over authority that they should have. So yes I think we can expect more drama if something like that happens.

[JSRAW]

Continuation of existing ICC media rights discussion.

I was listening to Twitter Spaces last night and it feels like a new narrative is going to build up in the coming days when ICC finalizes its media rights for everyone.

According to ICC Indian market makes up to 70% of their revenue and the rest of the world (majority of portion UK, Aus) contributes 30%.

The tricky situation is that if ICC fails to attract the remaining 30%, which is close to $900Million (based on a recent Indian media rights deal) then Indian share in generating revenue is going to up, the question is how much up it would go? If by any chance it goes close to 85-90% then expect more drama.

It’s quite simple, isn’t it? ICC cannot tell them anything because they are the ones giving ICC a huge amount of money. And if ICC does decide to take a bold step and impose authority on the bigger cricket boards, especially India, obviously there will be a lot of drama around cricket. And ICC cannot quite frankly do that because they just don’t have that cross-over authority that they should have. So yes I think we can expect more drama if something like that happens.

Yes, they can't but they do a lot of things behind closed doors. Also there is a narrative in cricketing world that India is ruining everything dear in Cricket and Evil BCCI.

But the reality is India is a net provider, not a destroyer and subsidizes world cricket. This picture is going to be more clear once ICC officially releases all the numbers.

[wiss19]

ICC doesn't want cricket to be included into Olympics. ICC doesn't want to loss it's control. The main one behind this seems to be BCCI, because they need to be on power as well as enjoy the money made out of cricket. For sure the leading cricket nations will fail while playing cricket in Olympics. There is no chance of adding ODI, because it isn't easy as playing T20.

ICC and B-4's greediness killing this game, and mostly it's done by BCCI because they are feeling they are major party, and they have right now to do all things which are better for them, and they are not allowing any other to be competed with them which is surely a big dilemma for this game and sports authority.
 
Even there is no doubt they are major contributor, but they need to understand all changes and have to give priority to major things which help this game overall not just by themselves they are increasing teams in IPL and want bigger window which is surely not fair but with the help of B-4 it's all going in their favor and now revenue is also big problem as BCCI want big share from this as they are major contributor, and they will achieve because again here all in their favour with this all we are not going to be good and better in marketing because BCCI don't like this.

[Sithara007]

Recent rights auctions were for the whole Indian subcontinent and according to broadcasters 95-97% are from India only and the way things are going in the subcontinent (Flood, economic, political unrest in Pakistan/Sri lanka) they are only relying on Indian market.

Edit

These numbers are from broadcasters.

I am quite surprised. GDP per capita in India is comparable to similar figures from neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. Sri Lanka maybe down due to the recent economic meltdown. Given this, I expected the share from Pakistan and Bangladesh to be at least 1/3rd of that of India, given their combined population of more than 400 million. Even if it is not 35%, it can be 30% or at least 20%. I didn't expected this <5% figure. Is there any solid reason behind this discrepancy?