Cricket match prediction discussions

[BobK71]

Even no one can complain about this all but still here ICC needs to work on fair policy for all countries and try to have level in treatment as well because this is very important for them the spirit of this game and better value in future now as USA is also trying to enter this which is good and surely this can increase revenue of ICC because too many Indian, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Sri Lankan are settled which will increase popularity of this game.

Let's for a. moment appreciate both the teams for showing amazing cricket today
Pakistan is experiencing a crucial flood in most of his region - and there is political turmoil too since last 6 months.
I believe this win will bring a bit of happiness to the people of Pakistan - congrats everyone..

Even I am feeling they are in this situation for last few decades specially after 9/11 when USA attack Taliban in Afghanistan after this region is having not good news for anyone but now things are going worst hopefully we have some good news in near future from this region and this will also change into better living place.

It is to be said ‍ৃat present those political parities who are talk about the democracy they won't deserve the democracy. The same situation is going on in most countries of Asia, especially in India, Pakistan, Myanmar and Bangladesh. In this case, the conflict does not seem to be stable in the same situation, it will be increased. This sordid politics is now spreading, which is now dominate the cricket as well. There is nothing to say how excitement occur in India Pakistan match. But the arrogance always works between them. Anyway we want peace and unity. It will be good for everyone.

[mm2543363580]

Even I am feeling they are in this situation for last few decades specially after 9/11 when USA attack Taliban in Afghanistan after this region is having not good news for anyone but now things are going worst hopefully we have some good news in near future from this region and this will also change into better living place.

Yes! one of my Pakistani friends said that is the only good news team have given us during this time of unrest and trouble.
We are experiencing some exciting matches during this time of mental stress and trouble.

[Sithara007]

The deal between Disney-Star and Zee is quite confusing. They won the ICC media rights (Indian sub-continent) for $3.04 billion (which according to most experts is around 2 times the fair price), and then they managed to sell the TV rights to Zee. According to the Business Standard, Zee will be paying slightly greater than $1.5 billion to Disney-Star. Now Disney's winning bid doesn't look too bad. They just wanted the rights for their online streaming platform (Hotstar) and that is the reason why they gave away the TV rights to Zee. Now Indian TV subscribers need to shell out another 100-120 rupees every month to subscribe to the Zee Sports channels.

[JSRAW]

Yeah, they sub-licensed rights to the Zee. I guess they already had some back-door talks with the Zee before the auction took place and now looks a good deal. Having said that considering 2nd,3rd, 4th bidding everyone would still say that Disney overpaid.

Some could also argue that Disney played their cards rights and didn't go along with other broadcaster agenda, which was to take auction to e-auction.

[Sithara007]

Yeah, they sub-licensed rights to the Zee. I guess they already had some back-door talks with the Zee before the auction took place and now looks a good deal. Having said that considering 2nd,3rd, 4th bidding everyone would still say that Disney overpaid.

Some could also argue that Disney played their cards rights and didn't go along with other broadcaster agenda, which was to take auction to e-auction.

The intention from Reliance and others was to take it to the second round (e-auction). In order to avoid it, Disney-Star had to make sure that there is more than 10% difference with the second ranking bid. And IMO, I don't think that they overpaid by much. If the 5-year IPL bid can go for $6 billion, then I don't think that $3-4 billion for 4-year ICC deal is overrated. ICC tournaments have their own aura, and people like me hardly watch IPL nowadays. IPL is getting repetitive and too lengthy. ICC tournaments have the "fresh" feeling and their duration is optimal.

[JSRAW]

Yeah, they sub-licensed rights to the Zee. I guess they already had some back-door talks with the Zee before the auction took place and now looks a good deal. Having said that considering 2nd,3rd, 4th bidding everyone would still say that Disney overpaid.

Some could also argue that Disney played their cards rights and didn't go along with other broadcaster agenda, which was to take auction to e-auction.

The intention from Reliance and others was to take it to the second round (e-auction). In order to avoid it, Disney-Star had to make sure that there is more than 10% difference with the second ranking bid. And IMO, I don't think that they overpaid by much. If the 5-year IPL bid can go for $6 billion, then I don't think that $3-4 billion for 4-year ICC deal is overrated. ICC tournaments have their own aura, and people like me hardly watch IPL nowadays. IPL is getting repetitive and too lengthy. ICC tournaments have the "fresh" feeling and their duration is optimal.

That's one of the reasons everyone saying that they overpaid.

Because at the end of the day they paid way too much if we are considering only a 10% threshold limit.

[Juggy777]

Yeah, they sub-licensed rights to the Zee. I guess they already had some back-door talks with the Zee before the auction took place and now looks a good deal. Having said that considering 2nd,3rd, 4th bidding everyone would still say that Disney overpaid.

Some could also argue that Disney played their cards rights and didn't go along with other broadcaster agenda, which was to take auction to e-auction.

The intention from Reliance and others was to take it to the second round (e-auction). In order to avoid it, Disney-Star had to make sure that there is more than 10% difference with the second ranking bid. And IMO, I don't think that they overpaid by much. If the 5-year IPL bid can go for $6 billion, then I don't think that $3-4 billion for 4-year ICC deal is overrated. ICC tournaments have their own aura, and people like me hardly watch IPL nowadays. IPL is getting repetitive and too lengthy. ICC tournaments have the "fresh" feeling and their duration is optimal.

That's one of the reasons everyone saying that they overpaid.

Because at the end of the day they paid way too much if we are considering only a 10% threshold limit.

@JSRAW I disagree here because Disney could lose user’s and the OTT platform is very lucrative, hence if Disney can strike some good ad deals then they’ll be able to get nice profits in the long run, and thanks to this deal they’re now bound to get new user’s and even existing user’s will probably renew their subscriptions.

@Sithara007 not sure if Disney actually thought like you did, therefore my theory yet remains the same that Disney did it because they knew that they could actually recover the money, and earn profits as OTT ads are very lucrative.

[Sithara007]

@Sithara007 not sure if Disney actually thought like you did, therefore my theory yet remains the same that Disney did it because they knew that they could actually recover the money, and earn profits as OTT ads are very lucrative.

I agree with you!

Indian economy is growing at a breakneck speed ever since NDA came to power in 2014. Salaries have gone up by 3-4 times and inflation has remained at 4-5%. Sports sector in particular has witnessed extremely rapid growth. And this was witnessed during the IPL franchise auction and IPL media rights auction as well. And compared to cable TV, online streaming has witnessed greater growth. In India, the lower middle class is moving up towards the higher middle class group and this group is spending considerable amounts on OTT platforms.

[JSRAW]

~snip~

@JSRAW I disagree here because Disney could lose user’s and the OTT platform is very lucrative, hence if Disney can strike some good ad deals then they’ll be able to get nice profits in the long run, and thanks to this deal they’re now bound to get new user’s and even existing user’s will probably renew their subscriptions.

@Sithara007 not sure if Disney actually thought like you did, therefore my theory yet remains the same that Disney did it because they knew that they could actually recover the money, and earn profits as OTT ads are very lucrative.

Ofc it's all about adding new subscribers or maintaining the existing base intact.

Hotstar jumped close to 60 Million subscribers when they had IPL to show for Primetime (7:30 PM -11:00 PM slot). With ICC tournaments it's not the case even anymore (except 1 WC and 1 Champions trophy).

They could still make money out of 2 ICC tournaments that are scheduled in the subcontinent but the argument is they could have saved like billion dollars during the auction.

 

[laurenB7742]

Yeah, they sub-licensed rights to the Zee. I guess they already had some back-door talks with the Zee before the auction took place and now looks a good deal. Having said that considering 2nd,3rd, 4th bidding everyone would still say that Disney overpaid.
Some could also argue that Disney played their cards rights and didn't go along with other broadcaster agenda, which was to take auction to e-auction.

The intention from Reliance and others was to take it to the second round (e-auction). In order to avoid it, Disney-Star had to make sure that there is more than 10% difference with the second ranking bid. And IMO, I don't think that they overpaid by much. If the 5-year IPL bid can go for $6 billion, then I don't think that $3-4 billion for 4-year ICC deal is overrated. ICC tournaments have their own aura, and people like me hardly watch IPL nowadays. IPL is getting repetitive and too lengthy. ICC tournaments have the "fresh" feeling and their duration is optimal.

That's one of the reasons everyone saying that they overpaid.
Because at the end of the day they paid way too much if we are considering only a 10% threshold limit.

When we look at the difference between the first bid and the second bid, it is easy to see that there is a huge difference between the two bids. There was no way anyone could have expected this much of a difference. And that is always going to be in the back of their minds. There is no doubt in my mind that they will feel the loss of 1.7 billion dollars. However, they cannot change what has already been done. From now on, they should try to optimize the outcome of the project in order to achieve the best results.

[dezoel]

There is no chance that the ICC is going to work on your policy for every team in cricket. As we saw previously in this Asia Cup, when Pakistan lost against India, ICC posted a lot of posts on their Facebook timeline supporting India following the loss. I have not seen the ICC do the same thing for Pakistan in my opinion. That certainly shows the severity of discrimination that exists within the ICC. I do not think that the way the ICC does things will lead to any equality between the teams in cricket based on how they conduct themselves. Below is a link to the official Facebook page of the International Cricket Council. You can check if you wish to do so

https://www.facebook.com/icc

There are many factors for this Indian fan base in the biggest in ICC countries with this they are the biggest in earning for ICC as well just because of this mostly they celebrate Indian wins and in special case if this happens against Pakistan then they have more celebrations because then sentiments are more increased, and they have better viewership's and likes on their social media pages which is good for them and their parents which are Pig-4 right now.

On other side Pakistan has never been ideal country for any sports just because of political and uncertainty and natural disasters are also having big impact on them for years as they completely fail to settle things which are important for development and having better business sentiments for common peoples which are very important for having better results and income from any country.

[Sithara007]

Ofc it's all about adding new subscribers or maintaining the existing base intact.

Hotstar jumped close to 60 Million subscribers when they had IPL to show for Primetime (7:30 PM -11:00 PM slot). With ICC tournaments it's not the case even anymore (except 1 WC and 1 Champions trophy).

They could still make money out of 2 ICC tournaments that are scheduled in the subcontinent but the argument is they could have saved like billion dollars during the auction.

In my hometown, which falls within the tier-2 category, I have huge number of people cancelling their cable TV subscription and going for OTT platforms. Nowadays people don't care spending a few thousand rupees to watch quality stuff. Disney-Star paid $250 million per year last time, and that was in 2014. 8 years have passed and I would expect the rates to go up by 3x-4x, given the rapid growth in Indian consumer wealth. My conclusion is that Disney-Star paid a fair amount, while Sony and Reliance under-estimated the bid.

[GigaBit]

No one is going to be able to generate money for ICC like India. And honestly now one is even going to be able to come close to India in terms of revenue.
PSL, PCL, and BPL can not even generate the revenue that India alone can generate. And India is going to flex about that for sure.
As per as I think it is also not going to be very surprised if they even try to take a little advantage of that as well.

No other country can give the financial support that India gives to ICC right now because they have a big market in cricket. It is true that other leagues such as PSL, BPL and CPL will not be able to pay the same amount of money as India pay. However, the financial aspect should not be brought to the larger interest of cricket. This will have the negative effect of a kind of dominating aspect among those who share more revenue which is not good for the cricket.

[JSRAW]

Ofc it's all about adding new subscribers or maintaining the existing base intact.

Hotstar jumped close to 60 Million subscribers when they had IPL to show for Primetime (7:30 PM -11:00 PM slot). With ICC tournaments it's not the case even anymore (except 1 WC and 1 Champions trophy).

They could still make money out of 2 ICC tournaments that are scheduled in the subcontinent but the argument is they could have saved like billion dollars during the auction.

In my hometown, which falls within the tier-2 category, I have huge number of people cancelling their cable TV subscription and going for OTT platforms. Nowadays people don't care spending a few thousand rupees to watch quality stuff. Disney-Star paid $250 million per year last time, and that was in 2014. 8 years have passed and I would expect the rates to go up by 3x-4x, given the rapid growth in Indian consumer wealth. My conclusion is that Disney-Star paid a fair amount, while Sony and Reliance under-estimated the bid.

Agree with the former part of your comment.

for the latter, I guess it would make sense when all numbers are out from the ICC officials in DEC. IMO other competitors didn't actually underestimated anything, they just wanted an e-auction and Disney was desperate to get some content for Hotstar for obvious reasons.

When we look at the difference between the first bid and the second bid, it is easy to see that there is a huge difference between the two bids. There was no way anyone could have expected this much of a difference. And that is always going to be in the back of their minds. There is no doubt in my mind that they will feel the loss of 1.7 billion dollars. However, they cannot change what has already been done. From now on, they should try to optimize the outcome of the project in order to achieve the best results.

That's what happens in a close bid.

[Sithara007]

~~~
In my hometown, which falls within the tier-2 category, I have huge number of people cancelling their cable TV subscription and going for OTT platforms. Nowadays people don't care spending a few thousand rupees to watch quality stuff. Disney-Star paid $250 million per year last time, and that was in 2014. 8 years have passed and I would expect the rates to go up by 3x-4x, given the rapid growth in Indian consumer wealth. My conclusion is that Disney-Star paid a fair amount, while Sony and Reliance under-estimated the bid.

Agree with the former part of your comment.

for the latter, I guess it would make sense when all numbers are out from the ICC officials in DEC. IMO other competitors didn't actually underestimated anything, they just wanted an e-auction and Disney was desperate to get some content for Hotstar for obvious reasons.

Until a couple of years back, Hotstar was ahead in Sports OTT market by a huge margin. Now they are facing stiff competition (not just from Sony LIV, but also from minor competitors such as Fancode). Platforms such as Sony Liv do have higher quality and variety compared to Hotstar. And in the next 4-5 years I am sure that OTT will grow much bigger than the cable TV segment (especially for Sports), and Hotstar wants to cling on to the market share at any cost. And given the huge premium they paid for the Indian subcontinent, I won't be surprised if rest of the world goes for more than $1 billion.

[JSRAW]

~~~
In my hometown, which falls within the tier-2 category, I have huge number of people cancelling their cable TV subscription and going for OTT platforms. Nowadays people don't care spending a few thousand rupees to watch quality stuff. Disney-Star paid $250 million per year last time, and that was in 2014. 8 years have passed and I would expect the rates to go up by 3x-4x, given the rapid growth in Indian consumer wealth. My conclusion is that Disney-Star paid a fair amount, while Sony and Reliance under-estimated the bid.

Agree with the former part of your comment.

for the latter, I guess it would make sense when all numbers are out from the ICC officials in DEC. IMO other competitors didn't actually underestimated anything, they just wanted an e-auction and Disney was desperate to get some content for Hotstar for obvious reasons.

Until a couple of years back, Hotstar was ahead in Sports OTT market by a huge margin. Now they are facing stiff competition (not just from Sony LIV, but also from minor competitors such as Fancode). Platforms such as Sony Liv do have higher quality and variety compared to Hotstar. And in the next 4-5 years I am sure that OTT will grow much bigger than the cable TV segment (especially for Sports), and Hotstar wants to cling on to the market share at any cost. And given the huge premium they paid for the Indian subcontinent, I won't be surprised if rest of the world goes for more than $1 billion.

As mentioned in my previous post that Hotstar does have a monopoly in OTT market, close to 60 Million paid subscribers so no argument there whatsoever.

Let me put it this way, why i think they overpaid (not saying that they can't make money, just focusing on overpaid issue)

- Do you think that casual or even hardcore cricket fans watch every match in the ICC tournament? 99.99% would say no because fans love to watch their respective team (sometimes they even miss the action) and marquee, knockout encounters like Semifinals/ Finals.

-There are total of 179 matches in 4 ICC tournaments and India is playing 26 matches in 4 ICC tournaments then we have additional 8 semifinals and 4 finals (knockouts).

- From the broadcaster's point of view if they are targeting the Indian market only, then they have only 26 (Ind) + 8(Semis) + 4(finals) = 38 Important matches out of 179 in the ICC tournaments.

- If we look at important matches only (38) then according to $3.02 Billion bid it every match is worth close to $80 Million.

- And if we are looking at every ICC match which is 179 then every game is worth approx $16.8 Million. Point to note that 1 IPL match worth is $13-ish million, that's a recent benchmark.

Remember 179 - 38 = 141 non India/ non knockouts.

Now tell me which broadcaster will pay close to $17 million bucks for Aus vs SL, Pak vs SL, SA vs BAN or even Eng vs Aus for Indian or any market?

[Sithara007]

^^^ IPL can't be compared with ICC tournaments such as ODI World Cup. First of all ODI matches last for 100 overs, while the IPL matches last only for 40% of that much. And also, IPL season is too long (2.5 months). Even the hardcore fans don't follow all the matches. On the other hand, World Cup usually lasts for less than a month, and fans like me follow most of the matches. And it is wrong to assume that an average cricket fan will be equally interested in all the IPL franchises. He will be having one or two favorite franchises and will be more interested in their matches.

[JSRAW]

^^^ IPL can't be compared with ICC tournaments such as ODI World Cup. First of all ODI matches last for 100 overs, while the IPL matches last only for 40% of that much.

Sounds like you are changing the goalpost by cherry-picking. We are talking about the economics of cricket and IPL is a recent example that's why I used that as a reference. ICC calendar has only one 50-overs tourny (India is playing 9 matches), 2 tournaments are T-20 format and probably they will go same with the champions trophy (not sure about format but India is playing 3 matches in group)

And also, IPL season is too long (2.5 months). Even the hardcore fans don't follow all the matches. On the other hand, World Cup usually lasts for less than a month, and fans like me follow most of the matches. And it is wrong to assume that an average cricket fan will be equally interested in all the IPL franchises. He will be having one or two favorite franchises and will be more interested in their matches.

That's exactly my point that fans hardly follow a complete tournament and stick to their fav franchise/country. It's equally true for ICC tournament.

Even dead rubber IPL matches generate average 5 million viewers in Hotstar. I hardly doubt that will be the case for every WC match, unless it's India or knockout fixtures. Just to give you an example Ind vs NZ WC semi-final witnessed 25 Million viewers at its peak, in comparison to the famous final Eng vs NZ, it barely touched 5 million that too with super over.

IDK about you or others but I don't see any logical reasoning when I see $17 Million per game in WC (This rate will go down drastically like $2-$5 million soon when the complete bidding process finishes tho) and when we count different timezone for 2 WC then It gets worse. I've presented all the numbers and it's available in the public domain for everyone to see.

IMO The best solution ICC could come up with is to organize main fixtures around Indian friendly timezone and I am sure Disney will try to push for it. On the other hand, Disney will also hope that these Indian WC match + WC Knockouts + IPL Knockouts keep their existing subscription base intact.

[Sithara007]

^^^ Subscriber base is going up by 8 million plus in a single quarter, and that means additional revenues of more than 100 million USD from new subscribers for that period alone. They have the rights until 2027. By then, they may be assuming that subscriber base will cross 100 million mark, which would mean guaranteed annual revenues of more than $1.2 billion. IPL + ICC streaming rights will cost them around that much, but then they can earn additional amounts from advertisements as well.

[Theones]

^^^ Subscriber base is going up by 8 million plus in a single quarter, and that means additional revenues of more than 100 million USD from new subscribers for that period alone. They have the rights until 2027. By then, they may be assuming that subscriber base will cross 100 million mark, which would mean guaranteed annual revenues of more than $1.2 billion. IPL + ICC streaming rights will cost them around that much, but then they can earn additional amounts from advertisements as well.

Has anyone seen Kohli speech today after the match - he looked very different and very serious person.
An I the only one who has noticed that -or others felt the same way.
Asia cup has taken the social media like strom - is it the same in your country?