Cricket match prediction discussions

[JSRAW]

Recent rights auctions were for the whole Indian subcontinent and according to broadcasters 95-97% are from India only and the way things are going in the subcontinent (Flood, economic, political unrest in Pakistan/Sri lanka) they are only relying on Indian market.

Edit

These numbers are from broadcasters.

I am quite surprised. GDP per capita in India is comparable to similar figures from neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. Sri Lanka maybe down due to the recent economic meltdown. Given this, I expected the share from Pakistan and Bangladesh to be at least 1/3rd of that of India, given their combined population of more than 400 million. Even if it is not 35%, it can be 30% or at least 20%. I didn't expected this <5% figure. Is there any solid reason behind this discrepancy?

Well according to ICC and countless sources Pakistan-Bangladesh-SriLanka combined global contribution is around 7-10% max even on good days so you can imagine when it comes down to the Subcontinent level then percentage and numbers are bound to go down drastically. BTW according to broadcasters, 95 - 97 % are conservative numbers (for India).

It's not like all 400million watch cricket there. Generous numbers IMO would be 20-40 Million. The basic standard would be Ind vs Pak (2019) match which attracted more than 300 Million viewers.

Point to note that there is no metric to calculate how many people watching live action on single tv set, big screen, pubs, OTT etc so it comes down to TV ratings and Clicks on OTT platform.

[Sithara007]

^^^ Anyway, we will get a good idea about their revenue share, when the ICC conducts the third round of media rights bidding. India is done for now, and they received $3.04 billion. US, UK and Australia will go next (probably by the end of this year), and this will be followed by rest of the world. My guess is $0.5 to $1.0 billion from the remaining regions.

It is very difficult to measure market value of sports broadcasting in Pakistan. The only metric that I have with me is the figure of $24 million, which was paid by A Sports and PTV Sports for the PSL (two year deal, covering 2022-23). That comes to around $12 million per year. On the other hand the IPL rights were sold for around $1.2 billion per year, which is 100 times higher.

That said, back in 2020, the PCB managed to sell a three-year rights package for international and domestic (excluding PSL) matches for $200 million to PTV Sports (the previous deal with SONY, for 2015-20 was worth just $60 million or $12 million per year).

[JSRAW]

Now I'm expecting some noise from the BCCI if the rest of the world media rights manages to collect just around $0.5 Billion, maybe some sort of additional compensation or some other demands from the BCCI.

Well by looking at PSL's numbers, I guess it gives us a fair idea about how much revenue the ICC tournament could generate from Pakistan.

[YinShuiSiYuan]

^^^ Anyway, we will get a good idea about their revenue share, when the ICC conducts the third round of media rights bidding. India is done for now, and they received $3.04 billion. US, UK and Australia will go next (probably by the end of this year), and this will be followed by rest of the world. My guess is $0.5 to $1.0 billion from the remaining regions.

It is very difficult to measure market value of sports broadcasting in Pakistan. The only metric that I have with me is the figure of $24 million, which was paid by A Sports and PTV Sports for the PSL (two year deal, covering 2022-23). That comes to around $12 million per year. On the other hand the IPL rights were sold for around $1.2 billion per year, which is 100 times higher.

That said, back in 2020, the PCB managed to sell a three-year rights package for international and domestic (excluding PSL) matches for $200 million to PTV Sports (the previous deal with SONY, for 2015-20 was worth just $60 million or $12 million per year).

Well PCB or no other board is close to BCCI in terms of generating revenue and thats what make BCCI strongest board in the world and has special powers in ICC. BCCI generates revenue that is more then sum of all boards. I dont think its fair to compare what PCB is generating with BCCI,

[JSRAW]

^^^ Anyway, we will get a good idea about their revenue share, when the ICC conducts the third round of media rights bidding. India is done for now, and they received $3.04 billion. US, UK and Australia will go next (probably by the end of this year), and this will be followed by rest of the world. My guess is $0.5 to $1.0 billion from the remaining regions.

It is very difficult to measure market value of sports broadcasting in Pakistan. The only metric that I have with me is the figure of $24 million, which was paid by A Sports and PTV Sports for the PSL (two year deal, covering 2022-23). That comes to around $12 million per year. On the other hand the IPL rights were sold for around $1.2 billion per year, which is 100 times higher.

That said, back in 2020, the PCB managed to sell a three-year rights package for international and domestic (excluding PSL) matches for $200 million to PTV Sports (the previous deal with SONY, for 2015-20 was worth just $60 million or $12 million per year).

Well PCB or no other board is close to BCCI in terms of generating revenue and thats what make BCCI strongest board in the world and has special powers in ICC. BCCI generates revenue that is more then sum of all boards. I dont think its fair to compare what PCB is generating with BCCI,

No one is comparing or particularly talking about PCB vs BCCI per se. These sorts of comparisons come only when the discussion is concentrated around the cricketing financial ecosystem, so please don't mind and this specific discussion is about recent ICC cricketing rights.

[Marvell1]

^^^ Anyway, we will get a good idea about their revenue share, when the ICC conducts the third round of media rights bidding. India is done for now, and they received $3.04 billion. US, UK and Australia will go next (probably by the end of this year), and this will be followed by rest of the world. My guess is $0.5 to $1.0 billion from the remaining regions.
It is very difficult to measure market value of sports broadcasting in Pakistan. The only metric that I have with me is the figure of $24 million, which was paid by A Sports and PTV Sports for the PSL (two year deal, covering 2022-23). That comes to around $12 million per year. On the other hand the IPL rights were sold for around $1.2 billion per year, which is 100 times higher.
That said, back in 2020, the PCB managed to sell a three-year rights package for international and domestic (excluding PSL) matches for $200 million to PTV Sports (the previous deal with SONY, for 2015-20 was worth just $60 million or $12 million per year).

Well PCB or no other board is close to BCCI in terms of generating revenue and thats what make BCCI strongest board in the world and has special powers in ICC. BCCI generates revenue that is more then sum of all boards. I dont think its fair to compare what PCB is generating with BCCI,

No one is comparing or particularly talking about PCB vs BCCI per se. These sorts of comparisons come only when the discussion is concentrated around the cricketing financial ecosystem, so please don't mind and this specific discussion is about recent ICC cricketing rights.

I do not expect the money to be very high. At least nowhere close to 4 billion. I don't expect this to cross 1 billion dollars.
It might increase depending on the current situation, the current economic situation of the world to be exact. Everything is more costly now.

Now I'm expecting some noise from the BCCI if the rest of the world media rights manages to collect just around $0.5 Billion, maybe some sort of additional compensation or some other demands from the BCCI.

Well by looking at PSL's numbers, I guess it gives us a fair idea about how much revenue the ICC tournament could generate from Pakistan.

No one is going to be able to generate money for ICC like India. And honestly now one is even going to be able to come close to India in terms of revenue.
PSL, PCL, and BPL can not even generate the revenue that India alone can generate. And India is going to flex about that for sure.
As per as I think it is also not going to be very surprised if they even try to take a little advantage of that as well.

[Theones]

PSL, PCL, and BPL can not even generate the revenue that India alone can generate. And India is going to flex about that for sure.
As per as I think it is also not going to be very surprised if they even try to take a little advantage of that as well.

PAkistan won match against India in Asia Cup tonight
What an amazing cricket we have watched to night. PAkistan won by 5 wickets.
India too played really well. Well done India

[jostorres]

PSL, PCL, and BPL can not even generate the revenue that India alone can generate. And India is going to flex about that for sure.
As per as I think it is also not going to be very surprised if they even try to take a little advantage of that as well.

PAkistan won match against India in Asia Cup tonight
What an amazing cricket we have watched to night. PAkistan won by 5 wickets.
India too played really well. Well done India

There is no doubt right now PSL, CPL and BPL these three leagues can't go near to IPL as they are world's fifth-biggest economy and world's most populated country these two biggest advantages are going into their favor, and they are taking good advantage of these with having window for IPL and now asking for more share in media rights which is ICC having for next four years.

Even no one can complain about this all but still here ICC needs to work on fair policy for all countries and try to have level in treatment as well because this is very important for them the spirit of this game and better value in future now as USA is also trying to enter this which is good and surely this can increase revenue of ICC because too many Indian, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Sri Lankan are settled which will increase popularity of this game.

[mm2543363580]

Even no one can complain about this all but still here ICC needs to work on fair policy for all countries and try to have level in treatment as well because this is very important for them the spirit of this game and better value in future now as USA is also trying to enter this which is good and surely this can increase revenue of ICC because too many Indian, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Sri Lankan are settled which will increase popularity of this game.

Let's for a. moment appreciate both the teams for showing amazing cricket today
Pakistan is experiencing a crucial flood in most of his region - and there is political turmoil too since last 6 months.
I believe this win will bring a bit of happiness to the people of Pakistan - congrats everyone..

[Smack That Ace]

PSL, PCL, and BPL can not even generate the revenue that India alone can generate. And India is going to flex about that for sure.
As per as I think it is also not going to be very surprised if they even try to take a little advantage of that as well.

PAkistan won match against India in Asia Cup tonight
What an amazing cricket we have watched to night. PAkistan won by 5 wickets.
India too played really well. Well done India

There is no doubt right now PSL, CPL and BPL these three leagues can't go near to IPL as they are world's fifth-biggest economy and world's most populated country these two biggest advantages are going into their favor, and they are taking good advantage of these with having window for IPL and now asking for more share in media rights which is ICC having for next four years.

Even no one can complain about this all but still here ICC needs to work on fair policy for all countries and try to have level in treatment as well because this is very important for them the spirit of this game and better value in future now as USA is also trying to enter this which is good and surely this can increase revenue of ICC because too many Indian, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Sri Lankan are settled which will increase popularity of this game.

There is no chance that the ICC is going to work on your policy for every team in cricket. As we saw previously in this Asia Cup, when Pakistan lost against India, ICC posted a lot of posts on their Facebook timeline supporting India following the loss. I have not seen the ICC do the same thing for Pakistan in my opinion. That certainly shows the severity of discrimination that exists within the ICC. I do not think that the way the ICC does things will lead to any equality between the teams in cricket based on how they conduct themselves. Below is a link to the official Facebook page of the International Cricket Council. You can check if you wish to do so

https://www.facebook.com/icc


ReGarDs

DUke

[SirLancelot]

Even no one can complain about this all but still here ICC needs to work on fair policy for all countries and try to have level in treatment as well because this is very important for them the spirit of this game and better value in future now as USA is also trying to enter this which is good and surely this can increase revenue of ICC because too many Indian, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Sri Lankan are settled which will increase popularity of this game.

Let's for a. moment appreciate both the teams for showing amazing cricket today
Pakistan is experiencing a crucial flood in most of his region - and there is political turmoil too since last 6 months.
I believe this win will bring a bit of happiness to the people of Pakistan - congrats everyone..

We have too many entertaining matches in this Asia Cup and this was also one of them with first match of this cup which played between these two teams on last Sunday was also very entertaining then we have two Afghanistan matches first against Bangladesh and then against Sri Lanka have another level of entertainment now this match again give good and performance from both teams and at the End Pakistan were winner which is good at this crucial time when they are suffering from many setback like floods and political unrest.

Even I am feeling they are in this situation for last few decades specially after 9/11 when USA attack Taliban in Afghanistan after this region is having not good news for anyone but now things are going worst hopefully we have some good news in near future from this region and this will also change into better living place.

[BobK71]

Even no one can complain about this all but still here ICC needs to work on fair policy for all countries and try to have level in treatment as well because this is very important for them the spirit of this game and better value in future now as USA is also trying to enter this which is good and surely this can increase revenue of ICC because too many Indian, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Sri Lankan are settled which will increase popularity of this game.

Let's for a. moment appreciate both the teams for showing amazing cricket today
Pakistan is experiencing a crucial flood in most of his region - and there is political turmoil too since last 6 months.
I believe this win will bring a bit of happiness to the people of Pakistan - congrats everyone..

Even I am feeling they are in this situation for last few decades specially after 9/11 when USA attack Taliban in Afghanistan after this region is having not good news for anyone but now things are going worst hopefully we have some good news in near future from this region and this will also change into better living place.

It is to be said ‍ৃat present those political parities who are talk about the democracy they won't deserve the democracy. The same situation is going on in most countries of Asia, especially in India, Pakistan, Myanmar and Bangladesh. In this case, the conflict does not seem to be stable in the same situation, it will be increased. This sordid politics is now spreading, which is now dominate the cricket as well. There is nothing to say how excitement occur in India Pakistan match. But the arrogance always works between them. Anyway we want peace and unity. It will be good for everyone.

[mm2543363580]

Even I am feeling they are in this situation for last few decades specially after 9/11 when USA attack Taliban in Afghanistan after this region is having not good news for anyone but now things are going worst hopefully we have some good news in near future from this region and this will also change into better living place.

Yes! one of my Pakistani friends said that is the only good news team have given us during this time of unrest and trouble.
We are experiencing some exciting matches during this time of mental stress and trouble.

[Sithara007]

The deal between Disney-Star and Zee is quite confusing. They won the ICC media rights (Indian sub-continent) for $3.04 billion (which according to most experts is around 2 times the fair price), and then they managed to sell the TV rights to Zee. According to the Business Standard, Zee will be paying slightly greater than $1.5 billion to Disney-Star. Now Disney's winning bid doesn't look too bad. They just wanted the rights for their online streaming platform (Hotstar) and that is the reason why they gave away the TV rights to Zee. Now Indian TV subscribers need to shell out another 100-120 rupees every month to subscribe to the Zee Sports channels.

[JSRAW]

Yeah, they sub-licensed rights to the Zee. I guess they already had some back-door talks with the Zee before the auction took place and now looks a good deal. Having said that considering 2nd,3rd, 4th bidding everyone would still say that Disney overpaid.

Some could also argue that Disney played their cards rights and didn't go along with other broadcaster agenda, which was to take auction to e-auction.

[Sithara007]

Yeah, they sub-licensed rights to the Zee. I guess they already had some back-door talks with the Zee before the auction took place and now looks a good deal. Having said that considering 2nd,3rd, 4th bidding everyone would still say that Disney overpaid.

Some could also argue that Disney played their cards rights and didn't go along with other broadcaster agenda, which was to take auction to e-auction.

The intention from Reliance and others was to take it to the second round (e-auction). In order to avoid it, Disney-Star had to make sure that there is more than 10% difference with the second ranking bid. And IMO, I don't think that they overpaid by much. If the 5-year IPL bid can go for $6 billion, then I don't think that $3-4 billion for 4-year ICC deal is overrated. ICC tournaments have their own aura, and people like me hardly watch IPL nowadays. IPL is getting repetitive and too lengthy. ICC tournaments have the "fresh" feeling and their duration is optimal.

[JSRAW]

Yeah, they sub-licensed rights to the Zee. I guess they already had some back-door talks with the Zee before the auction took place and now looks a good deal. Having said that considering 2nd,3rd, 4th bidding everyone would still say that Disney overpaid.

Some could also argue that Disney played their cards rights and didn't go along with other broadcaster agenda, which was to take auction to e-auction.

The intention from Reliance and others was to take it to the second round (e-auction). In order to avoid it, Disney-Star had to make sure that there is more than 10% difference with the second ranking bid. And IMO, I don't think that they overpaid by much. If the 5-year IPL bid can go for $6 billion, then I don't think that $3-4 billion for 4-year ICC deal is overrated. ICC tournaments have their own aura, and people like me hardly watch IPL nowadays. IPL is getting repetitive and too lengthy. ICC tournaments have the "fresh" feeling and their duration is optimal.

That's one of the reasons everyone saying that they overpaid.

Because at the end of the day they paid way too much if we are considering only a 10% threshold limit.

[Juggy777]

Yeah, they sub-licensed rights to the Zee. I guess they already had some back-door talks with the Zee before the auction took place and now looks a good deal. Having said that considering 2nd,3rd, 4th bidding everyone would still say that Disney overpaid.

Some could also argue that Disney played their cards rights and didn't go along with other broadcaster agenda, which was to take auction to e-auction.

The intention from Reliance and others was to take it to the second round (e-auction). In order to avoid it, Disney-Star had to make sure that there is more than 10% difference with the second ranking bid. And IMO, I don't think that they overpaid by much. If the 5-year IPL bid can go for $6 billion, then I don't think that $3-4 billion for 4-year ICC deal is overrated. ICC tournaments have their own aura, and people like me hardly watch IPL nowadays. IPL is getting repetitive and too lengthy. ICC tournaments have the "fresh" feeling and their duration is optimal.

That's one of the reasons everyone saying that they overpaid.

Because at the end of the day they paid way too much if we are considering only a 10% threshold limit.

@JSRAW I disagree here because Disney could lose user’s and the OTT platform is very lucrative, hence if Disney can strike some good ad deals then they’ll be able to get nice profits in the long run, and thanks to this deal they’re now bound to get new user’s and even existing user’s will probably renew their subscriptions.

@Sithara007 not sure if Disney actually thought like you did, therefore my theory yet remains the same that Disney did it because they knew that they could actually recover the money, and earn profits as OTT ads are very lucrative.

[Sithara007]

@Sithara007 not sure if Disney actually thought like you did, therefore my theory yet remains the same that Disney did it because they knew that they could actually recover the money, and earn profits as OTT ads are very lucrative.

I agree with you!

Indian economy is growing at a breakneck speed ever since NDA came to power in 2014. Salaries have gone up by 3-4 times and inflation has remained at 4-5%. Sports sector in particular has witnessed extremely rapid growth. And this was witnessed during the IPL franchise auction and IPL media rights auction as well. And compared to cable TV, online streaming has witnessed greater growth. In India, the lower middle class is moving up towards the higher middle class group and this group is spending considerable amounts on OTT platforms.

[JSRAW]

~snip~

@JSRAW I disagree here because Disney could lose user’s and the OTT platform is very lucrative, hence if Disney can strike some good ad deals then they’ll be able to get nice profits in the long run, and thanks to this deal they’re now bound to get new user’s and even existing user’s will probably renew their subscriptions.

@Sithara007 not sure if Disney actually thought like you did, therefore my theory yet remains the same that Disney did it because they knew that they could actually recover the money, and earn profits as OTT ads are very lucrative.

Ofc it's all about adding new subscribers or maintaining the existing base intact.

Hotstar jumped close to 60 Million subscribers when they had IPL to show for Primetime (7:30 PM -11:00 PM slot). With ICC tournaments it's not the case even anymore (except 1 WC and 1 Champions trophy).

They could still make money out of 2 ICC tournaments that are scheduled in the subcontinent but the argument is they could have saved like billion dollars during the auction.