Cricket match prediction discussions

[Marvell1]

Some of the fans have blasted the ICC for it's poorly organized qualification structure for the 2024 T20 World Cup.

https://twitter.com/BdJcricket/status/1589216546651803651

Netherlands managed to finish within the top-8, which means that they qualify directly to the next edition. It also means that Two slots from Europe qualifier are most likely to be taken up by Ireland and Scotland. The controversy is with the EAP qualifier. One dedicated slot is provided to them and there is simply no competition for PNG. Apart from PNG, the next highest ranked team is Vanuatu at rank of 45. Also in Africa two slots are likely to be taken up by Zimbabwe and Namibia, leaving no place for other teams like Kenya. For the Americas slot, Canada has it easy. However, just two slots are allotted to Asia, and there is a lot of competition there.

Is the system of increasing slot numbers absolutely impossible or irrelevant?

Really think that there should be more teams playing in the World Cup. It was a great job from the Netherlands to finish so high in the top eight. I hope people can understand as well as I see that there is not much actual competition going on outside Asia to play for the World Cup. And that is really concerning for the ICC.

Outside of Asia, only a few countries actually play cricket regularly. I wonder why ICC does not make the group stage a lot wider with all the smaller countries like Kenya, Namibia, and others so that those countries also have a chance to show their potential.

[eaLiTy]

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I believe the only solution here is to hire an independent third party that can assess the ground situation, and if they believe that it’s safe then team India should visit and play in Pakistan. Furthermore if team India then too refuses then ICC should heavily fine them, and lastly suspend them from the next ICC tournament to send out a strong message.

Do you really think that the ICC will suspend India from their ICC tournaments, i highly doubt that, they might levy a fine but i doubt there will be any suspension if they fail to turn up for the tournament citing security reasons.

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PCB did try that route in court and according to my knowledge, they lost every time and even had to pay fine + reimbursement to BCCI.

The reason they lost was that they failed to provide proof or a single piece of paper against BCCI.

Yes, a fine of $1.6 million was paid by PCB because they claim that a binding Memorandum of Understanding was singed while they failed to produce that and BCCI claimed that it was just a proposal.

[JSRAW]

~
I believe the only solution here is to hire an independent third party that can assess the ground situation, and if they believe that it’s safe then team India should visit and play in Pakistan. Furthermore if team India then too refuses then ICC should heavily fine them, and lastly suspend them from the next ICC tournament to send out a strong message.

Do you really think that the ICC will suspend India from their ICC tournaments, i highly doubt that, they might levy a fine but i doubt there will be any suspension if they fail to turn up for the tournament citing security reasons.

I personally endorse this idea of suspension of BCCI from the ICC, just for drama. I'll grab the popcorn and enjoy the entertaining drama cup lol 

But hypothetically if it happens then BCCI will create its own version (ICC) of a new club and most of the cricketing nation won't mind switching sides.

[Sithara007]

I personally endorse this idea of suspension of BCCI from the ICC, just for drama. I'll grab the popcorn and enjoy the entertaining drama cup lol 

But hypothetically if it happens then BCCI will create its own version (ICC) of a new club and most of the cricketing nation won't mind switching sides.

Not as easy as it sounds. In a hypothetical scenario, the BCCI can expand the IPL to 20 teams and have a span of 4-5 months, and then get all the top players around the world to play in it. But there is no guarantee that this model will be sustainable. From what I have heard, the IPL is close to saturation point. Indians still prefer international cricket over club/franchise cricket. IPL will never get the same viewership as World Cup matches. For example, the match between Australia and Ireland in Super-12 had a peak viewership of 11 million in Hotstar. IPL matches rarely get this much.

[JSRAW]

I personally endorse this idea of suspension of BCCI from the ICC, just for drama. I'll grab the popcorn and enjoy the entertaining drama cup lol 

But hypothetically if it happens then BCCI will create its own version (ICC) of a new club and most of the cricketing nation won't mind switching sides.

Not as easy as it sounds. In a hypothetical scenario, the BCCI can expand the IPL to 20 teams and have a span of 4-5 months, and then get all the top players around the world to play in it. But there is no guarantee that this model will be sustainable. From what I have heard, the IPL is close to saturation point. Indians still prefer international cricket over club/franchise cricket. IPL will never get the same viewership as World Cup matches. For example, the match between Australia and Ireland in Super-12 had a peak viewership of 11 million in Hotstar. IPL matches rarely get this much.

Australia vs Ireland hitting 11 million mark on Hotstar is surprising to me, you got any media link to back it up?

Skeptical about this number because India vs Pak premier match only touched 18 million, which is a lot actually but doesn't look juicy when compared to Aus vs Ire.

[Cryptock]

Today Pakistan vs New Zealand Match
 Both teams played well and outstanding. But Pakistan won semi finals by their balling and betting performance. So let's see Final Match which team won the Final Match??

It was an easy win at the end for Pakistan and they are through to the final - today England and India will compete. Most people predict that India and Pakistan will be playing FINAL. And there will be gambling and betting and lots of money moving around at the back..

[Sithara007]

Australia vs Ireland hitting 11 million mark on Hotstar is surprising to me, you got any media link to back it up?

Skeptical about this number because India vs Pak premier match only touched 18 million, which is a lot actually but doesn't look juicy when compared to Aus vs Ire.

I was watching it live on Hotstar and they usually display the viewer numbers. It is not just the Australia vs Ireland match. I witnessed viewership crossing the 10 million mark in a number of other matches as well (many of them not involving India). It proves that Indian fans are interested in the other teams as well and there is no requirement that for matches to be viewed by a large number of people in India they should involve the national team. BTW, today is a working day and the viewership right now is ~12 million.

[YinShuiSiYuan]

Today Pakistan vs New Zealand Match
 Both teams played well and outstanding. But Pakistan won semi finals by their balling and betting performance. So let's see Final Match which team won the Final Match??

It was an easy win at the end for Pakistan and they are through to the final - today England and India will compete. Most people predict that India and Pakistan will be playing FINAL. And there will be gambling and betting and lots of money moving around at the back..

Pakistan really gave their best yesterday, batting wise,balling, fielding ,all was perfect. They displayed some excellent cricket and beat Newzealand easily. Now let's see who'll win today India or England and join Pakistan in finals.

[JSRAW]

Australia vs Ireland hitting 11 million mark on Hotstar is surprising to me, you got any media link to back it up?

Skeptical about this number because India vs Pak premier match only touched 18 million, which is a lot actually but doesn't look juicy when compared to Aus vs Ire.

I was watching it live on Hotstar and they usually display the viewer numbers. It is not just the Australia vs Ireland match. I witnessed viewership crossing the 10 million mark in a number of other matches as well (many of them not involving India). It proves that Indian fans are interested in the other teams as well and there is no requirement that for matches to be viewed by a large number of people in India they should involve the national team. BTW, today is a working day and the viewership right now is ~12 million.

Oh well, then i guess I've to take your words for granted.

But still, it seems dodgy to me unless, if that day was a bank holiday or something saying this because it's kinda rare. I was just watching Eng vs Ind Semis (death overs) and still, it didn't cross 18 Million mark despite being a knockout.

[Sithara007]

Oh well, then i guess I've to take your words for granted.

But still, it seems dodgy to me unless, if that day was a bank holiday or something saying this because it's kinda rare. I was just watching Eng vs Ind Semis (death overs) and still, it didn't cross 18 Million mark despite being a knockout.

LOL.. Now I am getting confused. I remember seeing the 1.1 cr mark in Hotstar. I don't know whether it was a technical error or something like that. It was a working day and therefore the numbers were even more surprising. But then, I remember seeing 7-8 million regularly for Super-12 matches not involving India. But the 18 million peak viewership number was a record (India vs Pakistan in Super-12). I confirmed it:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/cricket/icc-mens-t20-world-cup/indiat20-world-cup/t20-world-cup-india-pakistan-blockbuster-creates-new-viewership-record/articleshow/95052786.cms

Previous record was 14 million during the Asia cup, for the match between the same set of teams.

[JSRAW]

Oh well, then i guess I've to take your words for granted.

But still, it seems dodgy to me unless, if that day was a bank holiday or something saying this because it's kinda rare. I was just watching Eng vs Ind Semis (death overs) and still, it didn't cross 18 Million mark despite being a knockout.

LOL.. Now I am getting confused. I remember seeing the 1.1 cr mark in Hotstar. I don't know whether it was a technical error or something like that. It was a working day and therefore the numbers were even more surprising. But then, I remember seeing 7-8 million regularly for Super-12 matches not involving India. But the 18 million peak viewership number was a record (India vs Pakistan in Super-12). I confirmed it:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/cricket/icc-mens-t20-world-cup/indiat20-world-cup/t20-world-cup-india-pakistan-blockbuster-creates-new-viewership-record/articleshow/95052786.cms

Previous record was 14 million during the Asia cup, for the match between the same set of teams.

Don't know about glitches but IMO those numbers are too good to be true for the insignificant fixture and also it wasn't a prime time slot.

I hardly watch a full T-20 match (only powerplay and death overs) but yeah 7-8 Million sounds convincing to me and I guess Ind vs Pak is a no brainer for anyone when it comes to number games.



 

[Cryptock]

Australia vs Ireland hitting 11 million mark on Hotstar is surprising to me, you got any media link to back it up?

Skeptical about this number because India vs Pak premier match only touched 18 million, which is a lot actually but doesn't look juicy when compared to Aus vs Ire.

I was watching it live on Hotstar and they usually display the viewer numbers. It is not just the Australia vs Ireland match. I witnessed viewership crossing the 10 million mark in a number of other matches as well (many of them not involving India). It proves that Indian fans are interested in the other teams as well and there is no requirement that for matches to be viewed by a large number of people in India they should involve the national team. BTW, today is a working day and the viewership right now is ~12 million.

But it was hard luck for India - people were so excited to see India and Pakistan in Final. I am happy that is not happening, because Pakistani team hardly win against India - Thank God its PAkistan VS England. Although England is very good team. But Pakistan should try to win because they have been very lucky to through to the world cup.

[bitgov]

Oh well, then i guess I've to take your words for granted.

But still, it seems dodgy to me unless, if that day was a bank holiday or something saying this because it's kinda rare. I was just watching Eng vs Ind Semis (death overs) and still, it didn't cross 18 Million mark despite being a knockout.

LOL.. Now I am getting confused. I remember seeing the 1.1 cr mark in Hotstar. I don't know whether it was a technical error or something like that. It was a working day and therefore the numbers were even more surprising. But then, I remember seeing 7-8 million regularly for Super-12 matches not involving India. But the 18 million peak viewership number was a record (India vs Pakistan in Super-12). I confirmed it:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/cricket/icc-mens-t20-world-cup/indiat20-world-cup/t20-world-cup-india-pakistan-blockbuster-creates-new-viewership-record/articleshow/95052786.cms

Previous record was 14 million during the Asia cup, for the match between the same set of teams.

But India losing the Semi Final is not what fans wanted - they wanted to watch India and Pakistan play Final together
That would have been the biggest bet of century have that had happened.

[Sithara007]

But India losing the Semi Final is not what fans wanted - they wanted to watch India and Pakistan play Final together
That would have been the biggest bet of century have that had happened.

Would have got repetitive. We had multiple matches between India and Pakistan during the Asia Cup, and then we had another match during the T20 World Cup. There may be viewer fatigue. It will be interesting to see how many are going to tune in to watch the final match in Hotstar, given the fact that India has been kicked out of the world cup. The media rights holders (for both TV and online streaming platforms) would have hoped that India would feature in the final, but that didn't happened. Now it needs to be seen how that will impact their advertisement revenues.

[wiss19]

But India losing the Semi Final is not what fans wanted - they wanted to watch India and Pakistan play Final together
That would have been the biggest bet of century have that had happened.

Would have got repetitive. We had multiple matches between India and Pakistan during the Asia Cup, and then we had another match during the T20 World Cup. There may be viewer fatigue. It will be interesting to see how many are going to tune in to watch the final match in Hotstar, given the fact that India has been kicked out of the world cup. The media rights holders (for both TV and online streaming platforms) would have hoped that India would feature in the final, but that didn't happened. Now it needs to be seen how that will impact their advertisement revenues.

No doubt Indian absence from final going to have big impact on viewer's presence on both TV and online streaming and media right holders are going to suffer big amount because Indians are crazy about this game with specially they love to be watch Indian players even I still believe this could be going good but still not like which happen in presence of India but sadly every time you can't go with this other teams are also coming here for play and win which already happening and media rights holders surely understand this all.

For me right now after India Pakistan is the biggest market and with now we have final between England vs Pakistan we can expect good number of fans around the world will watch this final and have good entertainment which is also going to be not bad at all.

[Sithara007]

For me right now after India Pakistan is the biggest market and with now we have final between England vs Pakistan we can expect good number of fans around the world will watch this final and have good entertainment which is also going to be not bad at all.

In terms of population, Pakistan is the second largest country after India. But in terms of revenue potential, they are much below Australia and England. The reason is that cable TV revenues are much lower in Pakistan. The live content needs to be shared with the national TV, and therefore viewership for private cable channels are low. On top of that, there are too many restrictions and regulations. Internet coverage is also lower and therefore the online streaming platforms are not as popular as they are in India.

[YinShuiSiYuan]

For me right now after India Pakistan is the biggest market and with now we have final between England vs Pakistan we can expect good number of fans around the world will watch this final and have good entertainment which is also going to be not bad at all.

In terms of population, Pakistan is the second largest country after India. But in terms of revenue potential, they are much below Australia and England. The reason is that cable TV revenues are much lower in Pakistan. The live content needs to be shared with the national TV, and therefore viewership for private cable channels are low. On top of that, there are too many restrictions and regulations. Internet coverage is also lower and therefore the online streaming platforms are not as popular as they are in India.

That's true Pakistan is still very under developed technology wise and availability of basic Internet facilities still there are places where no network coverages are there and all they have is thier television.  So online streaming platform like Hotstar will have comparatively less viewers.

[JSRAW]

For me right now after India Pakistan is the biggest market and with now we have final between England vs Pakistan we can expect good number of fans around the world will watch this final and have good entertainment which is also going to be not bad at all.

In terms of population, Pakistan is the second largest country after India. But in terms of revenue potential, they are much below Australia and England. The reason is that cable TV revenues are much lower in Pakistan. The live content needs to be shared with the national TV, and therefore viewership for private cable channels are low. On top of that, there are too many restrictions and regulations. Internet coverage is also lower and therefore the online streaming platforms are not as popular as they are in India.

Bingo!

The exact same setup is present in India (cheap cable) but a big population helps the BCCI and broadcaster's cause, also Prime time IPL slot helps them to cut down their losses if there are any (unlikely) and the new OTT Platforms took the revenue model to another level.

[Sithara007]

Bingo!

The exact same setup is present in India (cheap cable) but a big population helps the BCCI and broadcaster's cause, also Prime time IPL slot helps them to cut down their losses if there are any (unlikely) and the new OTT Platforms took the revenue model to another level.

In India, penetration rates are much higher. There are more than 100 million households with cable TV access in India (around 40% of the total population), while in Pakistan this number is just 15 million (around 25% to 30% of the population). Less than 5% of the households are having access to broadband, and unlike the case with India, 3G/4G data is quite expensive. So this hampers the popularity of online streaming platforms such as SONY LIV and Hotstar. There are ~115 million 3G/4G users in Pakistan, compared to 1,150 million in India.

[JSRAW]

Bingo!

The exact same setup is present in India (cheap cable) but a big population helps the BCCI and broadcaster's cause, also Prime time IPL slot helps them to cut down their losses if there are any (unlikely) and the new OTT Platforms took the revenue model to another level.

In India, penetration rates are much higher. There are more than 100 million households with cable TV access in India (around 40% of the total population), while in Pakistan this number is just 15 million (around 25% to 30% of the population). Less than 5% of the households are having access to broadband, and unlike the case with India, 3G/4G data is quite expensive. So this hampers the popularity of online streaming platforms such as SONY LIV and Hotstar. There are ~115 million 3G/4G users in Pakistan, compared to 1,150 million in India.

Overall agree but I would like to add one important thing about the former part of your post if we are playing the % game.

It's okay but at the same time no one, literally, no one could actually quantify the actual number of spectators. For ex i watched Ind vs Pak opening match at the roadside Dhaba (last 3 overs) with like 100 people standing in the parking.