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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509470 times)
FreeMoney
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November 30, 2010, 06:36:21 AM
 #141

My statement was based on the number of people who regularly complain that it's not quick and easy to get funds into MtGox. (Note that I said "I think", not "I guarantee".)

It's my own experience too. If I could get PayPal funds into MtGox "instantly", I would buy bitcoins there.
There is a lot of demand for MtGox USD or LR in this community, and trade for PayPal.  This is does not help getting more funds to Mt. Gox, because the funds are already there.  It would help if Mt. Gox had more funding options.  E.g. Liqpay, which is preferred by some.

There are other ways to trade Bitcoins.  Why don't people use Bitcoin Market or #bitcoin-otc if they want to pay with other currencies?  If the price difference is high, then use it!  Get LR the slow way, buy coins at Mt. Gox and sell them for PayPal.

The way to "use' this opportunity would be to get money onto MtGox to buy and sell on BCM. People are suggesting that getting money onto MtGox is the hard part.

On a related note. I'd like to buy some MtGox for PP if anyone is interested.

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ribuck
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November 30, 2010, 11:29:51 AM
 #142

It occurs to me that this drop might be due to a single person who is trading on margin with MtGox. A small price drop might have forced him to quickly liquidate his coins.
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November 30, 2010, 11:32:52 AM
 #143

My statement was based on the number of people who regularly complain that it's not quick and easy to get funds into MtGox. (Note that I said "I think", not "I guarantee".)

It's my own experience too. If I could get PayPal funds into MtGox "instantly", I would buy bitcoins there.
There is a lot of demand for MtGox USD or LR in this community, and trade for PayPal.  This is does not help getting more funds to Mt. Gox, because the funds are already there.  It would help if Mt. Gox had more funding options.  E.g. Liqpay, which is preferred by some.

There are other ways to trade Bitcoins.  Why don't people use Bitcoin Market or #bitcoin-otc if they want to pay with other currencies?  If the price difference is high, then use it!  Get LR the slow way, buy coins at Mt. Gox and sell them for PayPal.

The way to "use' this opportunity would be to get money onto MtGox to buy and sell on BCM. People are suggesting that getting money onto MtGox is the hard part.

On a related note. I'd like to buy some MtGox for PP if anyone is interested.
Getting money into Mt. Gox isn't very difficult, but it costs.  You could buy BTC for PayPal at BCM or #bitcoin-otc, take your BTC to Mt. Gox and exchange there.  If this increases demand at BCM, someone will surely do the PPUSD -> LRUSD conversion for you, and get the money back to Mt. Gox with a profit.  This will again lead to increasing money inflow and BTC outflow at Mt. Gox, which leads to increasing prices and a growing BTC economy.  In the end every BTC owner profits.

Sjå http://bitmynt.no for veksling av bitcoin mot norske kroner.  Trygt, billig, raskt og enkelt sidan 2010.
I buy with EUR and other currencies at a fair market price when you want to sell.  See http://bitmynt.no/eurprice.pl
I support the roadmap.  If a majority of miners ever try to forcefully take control of Bitcoin through a hard fork without 100% consensus, I will immediately split out and dump all my forkcoins, and buy more real Bitcoin.
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November 30, 2010, 12:28:57 PM
 #144

It is funny to see how everybody scream "IT GOES DOWN", "COLLAPSE", "OH NOO". Gyus, nothing happen. Relax.

It was predictable for many days ago, there were big resistance at 0.3, because nobody wanted to buy so high and uptrend force wanished.

When you see long term graph, current price is on natural level from view of 'bottom' trendline. To be honest, I did not see so clear price action for long time ago. I think 0.2 is strong support, so we will see range moves for few days above 0.2.

By the way, many of you expect that rising difficulty (=rising price of mining) and price of BTCs are in correlation. They probably are not, it is example of seeming correlation. Same example as price of gold has no relation to price of its mining itself. Don't expect that BTC will rise forever...

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November 30, 2010, 01:28:28 PM
 #145

It was predictable for many days ago...
But where was your prediction then? Take a look at S3052's comments from 26 November, and see if you still think it was obvious and predictable!

My prediction was in my mind and on my mtgox account in form of sell @0.3 and buy @0.21 Smiley. I don't care about others, it is just funny to see panic at first hand. I'm trading on NASDAQ, but it is much more anonymous and without feedback like this Smiley.

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November 30, 2010, 01:36:32 PM
 #146

I don't care about others, it is just funny to see panic at first hand.

Careful guys, he's with the Government.

:p
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November 30, 2010, 01:44:58 PM
 #147

Careful guys, he's with the Government.

Haha Smiley
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December 01, 2010, 08:24:53 PM
 #148

http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=78

Here is the new update. I also comment on an alternative scenario.

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December 02, 2010, 09:58:57 AM
 #149

http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=78

Here is the new update. I also comment on an alternative scenario.
The new funding option for Mt. Gox should influence prices in a positive direction.  It is now much easier for people in the Euro-zone to get money into Mt. Gox, and buy bitcoins there.  The coins can then be transfered to BCM and sold for PPUSD there at a higher price, or sold in other markets.  The price gap between PPUSD and LRUSD will lower, since european PayPal users can withdraw their PP funds to their bank account and buy more bitcoins at Mt. Gox for a low fee.  This will ultimately push the price at Mt. Gox upwards, and access to bitcoins is getting easier for everyone.

Sjå http://bitmynt.no for veksling av bitcoin mot norske kroner.  Trygt, billig, raskt og enkelt sidan 2010.
I buy with EUR and other currencies at a fair market price when you want to sell.  See http://bitmynt.no/eurprice.pl
I support the roadmap.  If a majority of miners ever try to forcefully take control of Bitcoin through a hard fork without 100% consensus, I will immediately split out and dump all my forkcoins, and buy more real Bitcoin.
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December 02, 2010, 01:10:57 PM
 #150

to help make the past support lines clearer:

One off NP-Hard.
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December 02, 2010, 01:16:23 PM
 #151

The new funding option for Mt. Gox should influence prices in a positive direction.  It is now much easier for people in the Euro-zone to get money into Mt. Gox, and buy bitcoins there. 

New funding option? Did I miss something?

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December 02, 2010, 01:48:12 PM
 #152

I restarted the poll again to determine the "BITinvestor" sentiment again.

So please vote again!

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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sturle
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December 02, 2010, 02:12:15 PM
 #153

The new funding option for Mt. Gox should influence prices in a positive direction.  It is now much easier for people in the Euro-zone to get money into Mt. Gox, and buy bitcoins there. 

New funding option? Did I miss something?
Add Funds, bottom of page:

 Add Euros
 This process is done by bank transfer with minimal fees but is still manual. Send us an email.

Sjå http://bitmynt.no for veksling av bitcoin mot norske kroner.  Trygt, billig, raskt og enkelt sidan 2010.
I buy with EUR and other currencies at a fair market price when you want to sell.  See http://bitmynt.no/eurprice.pl
I support the roadmap.  If a majority of miners ever try to forcefully take control of Bitcoin through a hard fork without 100% consensus, I will immediately split out and dump all my forkcoins, and buy more real Bitcoin.
S3052
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December 03, 2010, 08:54:11 PM
 #154

tonights update is very brief for two reasons:
first, I don't feel well and second, more importantly, because prices are still rangebound.
Unless buying volume rises massively, BTC/USD remains stuck between 0.24and 0.28.
it requires approx. 30,000 $ to take out resistance between 0.28 and 0.35/0.40.
who dares to add funds and buy???

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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S3052
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December 04, 2010, 04:25:54 PM
 #155

The technical situation is getting more bearish.

MACD and RSI point downwards (see attached charts)

There is still a risk for a deep sell-off towards 0.11-0.14 $.

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S3052
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December 06, 2010, 07:44:52 AM
 #156

break down below 0.20, currently at 0.185 $.

It is quite probable that we are in a sell off towards 0.10-0.11 $.

Sentiment is highly bullish which is a contrary indicator, confirming the direction is DOWN.

This development again confirms that investors should never become complacent and ignore that both , huge rallies and also crash type declines are always possible, with all investment vihicles, including bitcoins.
Full analysis tonight.

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chickenado
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December 06, 2010, 08:39:43 AM
 #157

The technical situation is getting worse.

Worse for whom? For the early adopter aristocracy? I'm gonna cry my eyes out...

For us newcomers it's finally a chance to get hold of some bargain Bitcoins too. Smiley
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December 06, 2010, 08:56:31 AM
 #158

Typically in the technical analysis, "technically worse" means bearish and "technically better" means bullish. But I agree it can be misleading. Because for short sellers, DOWN means it is positive for them.

But I have corrected my wording to make sure it gets even more unbiased.


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BioMike
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December 06, 2010, 08:17:30 PM
 #159

Any idea about the cause? Is it related to the remark of mtgox, that if they didn't have the dark pool, the price would be around $0.06?
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December 06, 2010, 08:50:03 PM
 #160

Mtgox comment came while the price has also reached 0.185, so no, it is not related to his comment.

It's just a logical consequences of less buying volume than selling volume. Unless this changes prices will not rally. And secondly, the market technicals (price direction, volume trends, technical indicators) are quite bearish. In those cases, traders and investors are typically not recommended to "cathc the falling knife".
This condition can persist quite some time, without finding fundamental reasons for it. It's herding....

Lastly, sentiment is still too bullish for a persistent rally, most people in this forum "talk the market up" which is not a good sign. (recall how people said at prices reaching 0.1 $ that the rally from 0.06 is too steep.. prices rallied much more (+500%) before reversing.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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