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Question: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
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Author Topic: #1 most popular Bitcoin Price Forecasts (+1,492% gains, +750% more than B&H)  (Read 343141 times)
bitcoinBull
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April 28, 2011, 09:54:05 PM
 #461


It's definitely a bubble, in the sense that people are buying based on learning about it and speculating, rather than any apparent economic surge.  However.......if someone does decide to build something truly innovative on top of BitCoin that wasn't possible before, the current value will be left in the dust. 


Two implicit presumptions are slipping by in this thesis.  Here's why they're false:  1) The trading of bitcoin is the economic surge.  Bitcoin will only be further integrated with the rest of the economy as a value storage and transfer system, not develop its own entire separate economy.  2). Bitcoin itself is the truly innovative system which was not possible before.  Anything more is by extension.  The services which will be built on top are comparatively straightforward.

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April 28, 2011, 09:59:29 PM
 #462

As promised, here is tonight's bitcoin technical analysis and market update. I would like to take this opportunity to thank all followers for the encouragement and also the occasional donations. Don't stop, though :-)


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April 29, 2011, 12:35:52 AM
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It's definitely a bubble, in the sense that people are buying based on learning about it and speculating, rather than any apparent economic surge.  However.......if someone does decide to build something truly innovative on top of BitCoin that wasn't possible before, the current value will be left in the dust. 


Two implicit presumptions are slipping by in this thesis.  Here's why they're false:  1) The trading of bitcoin is the economic surge.  Bitcoin will only be further integrated with the rest of the economy as a value storage and transfer system, not develop its own entire separate economy.  2). Bitcoin itself is the truly innovative system which was not possible before.  Anything more is by extension.  The services which will be built on top are comparatively straightforward.

Right... think international transactions:

Me
USD->BTC
Merchant
BTC->Local fiat

Now I can buy anything anywhere in the world without paying large currency conversion fees.

As we slide down the banister of life, this is just another splinter in our ass.
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April 29, 2011, 12:40:27 AM
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Now I can buy anything anywhere in the world without paying large currency conversion fees.

The end goal of Bitcoin is to enable you to buy anything anywhere in the world without currency conversion at all.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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April 29, 2011, 12:48:59 AM
 #465


Now I can buy anything anywhere in the world without paying large currency conversion fees.

The end goal of Bitcoin is to enable you to buy anything anywhere in the world without currency conversion at all.

Focusing on the destination isn't as helpful as focusing on the path in front of you.

As we slide down the banister of life, this is just another splinter in our ass.
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April 29, 2011, 12:50:29 AM
 #466


Now I can buy anything anywhere in the world without paying large currency conversion fees.

The end goal of Bitcoin is to enable you to buy anything anywhere in the world without currency conversion at all.

Focusing on the destination isn't as helpful as focusing on the path in front of you.

Sometimes a spoon is just a spoon.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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April 29, 2011, 12:58:45 AM
 #467

International transactions are the primary application which got me excited about BitCoin months ago--in order for BitCoin to actually take off in that space it will need some kind of trust system, a more stable valuation (achievable by the sale of more advanced products like futures), physical/virtual/financial products denominated in bitcoins that people in the relevant countries want to buy, and/or some sort of framework/organisation for bitcoin exchangers.  The window for this is not universal and magical.  If it takes too long to materialise, the ongoing introduction of bitcoins from mining will lower the value before it does.  There are also (less likely) circumstances in which it doesn't materialise at all.

Consider the case of Napster--it launched the peer to peer revolution but failed itself.  Bitcoin is much more well-designed than Napster, but I personally think it could be at least relegated to the sidelines if an existing government announced 1:1 backed fiatcoin prior to it becoming well-established, for example.  Predicting the future is always something that ought to be done with a little bit of humility.

The question of whether trading of bitcoins alone is an economic surge is empirically simple:  wait.  If BitCoin has truly taken hold as a reliable store of value, then the valuation of bitcoins will not drop with continued mining.  Personally I think you only have to look at what happened after parity the first time to see that BitCoins aren't quite there yet, but I may be wrong.  We shall wait and see!  Either way, I'll be happy since my goal is the success of bitcoin.  Maybe my cautiousness will prove valuable to the market as I re-buy the coins I'm selling at current prices, or maybe BitCoin will continue to surge forward with my bank account thinner than it would have been and I'll be happy nonetheless to see it fly.  Slowing the rise slightly has a very good cost/benefit analysis for my set of goals Smiley .

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April 29, 2011, 01:33:41 AM
 #468

Quote
If it takes too long to materialise, the ongoing introduction of bitcoins from mining will lower the value before it does.

I would be very surprised if this happened at this point since the demand is out pacing supply by a wide margin.  People have clearly decided that bitcoins have value (for a number of reasons) and are clamoring to get them.  Napster failed because it was centralized and therefore easy to attack.  Bitcoin like Bittorrent is decentralized and very difficult to attack.  I personally believe the genie is out of the bottle here and nothing short of a major technical flaw (which I am unqualified to judge) will derail this train.  The store of value will be proven over time and the other qualities that make it useful as money out compete any other form I can think of.   
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April 29, 2011, 03:33:52 AM
 #469

Extension of the log Price Channel:

http://hostinga.imagecross.com/image-hosting-00/3828chart_pricechannel_flat.png

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April 29, 2011, 10:13:51 AM
 #470

A friend of mine coined an excellent term for the current surge:  it's a heisenbubble.

To me it looks more like a bohrble.

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April 29, 2011, 11:17:08 AM
 #471

A friend of mine coined an excellent term for the current surge:  it's a heisenbubble.

To me it looks more like a bohrble.
It isnt a bubble, it is just a system that is growing at an exponetial rate, at some point it will saturate and eventually retrace a bit. Prices as shown here http://hostinga.imagecross.com/image-hosting-00/3828chart_pricechannel_flat.png are moving inside an exponential channel, only above it you might consider it a price bubble, not now at 2-2.5 $/BTC.

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April 29, 2011, 04:26:34 PM
 #472

A friend of mine coined an excellent term for the current surge:  it's a heisenbubble.

To me it looks more like a bohrble.
It isnt a bubble, it is just a system that is growing at an exponetial rate, at some point it will saturate and eventually retrace a bit. Prices as shown here http://hostinga.imagecross.com/image-hosting-00/3828chart_pricechannel_flat.png are moving inside an exponential channel, only above it you might consider it a price bubble, not now at 2-2.5 $/BTC.

Let hope that the bitcoin economy also grows at the same rate.

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April 29, 2011, 09:33:21 PM
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A friend of mine coined an excellent term for the current surge:  it's a heisenbubble.

To me it looks more like a bohrble.
It isnt a bubble, it is just a system that is growing at an exponetial rate, at some point it will saturate and eventually retrace a bit. Prices as shown here http://hostinga.imagecross.com/image-hosting-00/3828chart_pricechannel_flat.png are moving inside an exponential channel, only above it you might consider it a price bubble, not now at 2-2.5 $/BTC.

So does that mean it's a bubble now?  It broke the channel to the upside.

As we slide down the banister of life, this is just another splinter in our ass.
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April 29, 2011, 09:40:03 PM
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It is simultaneously a bubble, and not a bubble. Only once we observe it (from the future) will we know for sure...
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April 29, 2011, 09:47:32 PM
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It is simultaneously a bubble, and not a bubble. Only once we observe it (from the future) will we know for sure...

We still have yet to open the black box and see if the cat is alive.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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April 29, 2011, 10:28:19 PM
 #476

Looks like we are about to see a rally above $3 very soon. Volume at the $2.95 and $3 levels are being bought up VERY quickly.
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April 29, 2011, 11:23:49 PM
 #477

Yes, I think it will go to $3, $4, $5, etc. And it is not a bubble. The exchange rate just goes to its real place. Smiley

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April 30, 2011, 02:22:13 AM
 #478

Yes, it is not a bubble if bitcoin were embarassingly undervalued anywhere below USD$XXX ... fill in any number you want here to quantify the demand for a crypto-currency of the bitcoin flavour.

EDIT: quantifying the monetisation of virtual commodity has no historical precedence, charts out the window, we're off to la la land ... Cheesy

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April 30, 2011, 04:44:04 AM
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April 30, 2011, 02:25:26 PM
 #480

Here is a special Bitcoin technical update,given the very strong, but potentially overheating trend.

Please donate here if you wish to see the Bitcoin Market Coverage continued:
1P8iS7WLx5n4ixThBRCPEPk9A3dR8bV6qt
 
Longterm: RALLY. But we may still not have fully broken the upper channel line, depending on how the line is drawn.
Short term: Possibly correction down.

http://bit.ly/j4EerB

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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