Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[FooDSt4mP]

As Jim Rogers says, "I'll sell, and then it will double again!  And I'm one of the bulls!"

Here I am holding cash  

think about the dudes that just bailed out selling down to $.50 very recently  

And panic selling ensues..  (*sigh of relief)

I'll be at the bottom to mop it up..

I dont even know if its over   I bet you would feel better with some high volume selling resistance  between here and $2, cause right now somebody buys $5(hehe ;P) worth and were back at $2 again

There's about $2500 USD worth the visible asks to blow through to reach $2... a bit more than $5.  There is similar pressure on the buying side though, so I expect it to sit for a while around 1.7-1.8 before deciding where to go.

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[coined]

As Jim Rogers says, "I'll sell, and then it will double again!  And I'm one of the bulls!"

Here I am holding cash  

think about the dudes that just bailed out selling down to $.50 very recently  

And panic selling ensues..  (*sigh of relief)

I'll be at the bottom to mop it up..

I dont even know if its over   I bet you would feel better with some high volume selling resistance  between here and $2, cause right now somebody buys $5(hehe ;P) worth and were back at $2 again

There's about $2500 USD worth the visible asks to blow through to reach $2... a bit more than $5.  There is similar pressure on the buying side though, so I expect it to sit for a while around 1.7-1.8 before deciding where to go.

the $5 figure was obviously(i thought) a joke, i just meant relatively low compared to the volume of trades that have been happening lately. and not enough on its own to stop it reaching $2

[FooDSt4mP]

True, there is fairly low ask pressure, and it's lower now (5 minutes later) than when I posted.  Unfortunately, the bids are in the same boat.  I don't know enough to tell what is going on, but my best guess is that we will see the price sink slightly until Monday morning rolls around and all the mtgox deposits hit.  The bulls have just run out of cash for now.  Then, we will rally just a bit more before we top out and consolidate for a while.  I don't know though, and if you make trades on my advice you should consider yourself stupid .

[LZ]

We traded $33,406.51 in last 4 hours. To exceed $2.0 we need only $22,701.60. It seems more than possible.

[epii]

It looks like the volume for yesterday was over twice the previous record in dollar terms, over $100k.  Wow.

[dust]

True, there is fairly low ask pressure, and it's lower now (5 minutes later) than when I posted.  Unfortunately, the bids are in the same boat.  I don't know enough to tell what is going on, but my best guess is that we will see the price sink slightly until Monday morning rolls around and all the mtgox deposits hit.  The bulls have just run out of cash for now.  Then, we will rally just a bit more before we top out and consolidate for a while.  I don't know though, and if you make trades on my advice you should consider yourself stupid .

This is a good point.  There is no way to get large amounts of USD into the exchanges on weekends, whereas people can always transfer btc to sell easily.

[S3052]

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[bitdragon]

True, there is fairly low ask pressure, and it's lower now (5 minutes later) than when I posted.  Unfortunately, the bids are in the same boat.  I don't know enough to tell what is going on, but my best guess is that we will see the price sink slightly until Monday morning rolls around and all the mtgox deposits hit.  The bulls have just run out of cash for now.  Then, we will rally just a bit more before we top out and consolidate for a while.  I don't know though, and if you make trades on my advice you should consider yourself stupid .

This is a good point.  There is no way to get large amounts of USD into the exchanges on weekends, whereas people can always transfer btc to sell easily.

Euro deposits will not hit until Tuesday as it is Easter Monday tomorrow-
I'm waiting for a few pennies to arrive;

[epii]

Special short term update

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/04/bitcoin-market-analysis-short-term-update-april-24th-2011-by-s3052/

Please donate here if you wish to see the Bitcoin Market Coverage continued:
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Curious about something.  I just read this article (since I've been wanting to learn more of your terminology): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangle_%28technical_analysis%29

I don't understand why you describe the descending triangle that you drew in your analysis as a "bullish" triangle, when it says "if you do see it in an uptrend it should be paid attention to as it can act as a powerful reversal signal".  

(Not that I doubt your analysis.)

[S3052]

As previously mentioned, corrections can take 11 different forms, including triangles. Triangles themselves, can also take different shapes (acending descending, symmetrical and there also exist "running" triangles).

It is always possible that break out of triangles after an uptrend can be on the downside, but there are two reasons why I made the bullish call
(1) Bitcoins "love triangles". If you go back to the history of the bitcoin technical analysis, you will see that probably >90% of all triangles were resolved to the upside.

(2) Last days trend was extremely bullish with record buying volume. Typically, triangles form at the end of bullish phases (Elliott 4th wave position), but will be followed by one more rally (Elliott 5th wave).

Anyway, I may be wrong this time. All analysis is based on probabilities and this one was the highest probability call.

[deadlizard]

Just wondering which time frames you watch most carefully.
I'm watching a shooting star form on the daily and weekly charts which are overbought.
and the 15 minute chart looks like it's turned around on you.
But I have a habit of being wrong more than 90% of the time

[BrightAnarchist]

Anyway, I may be wrong this time. All analysis is based on probabilities and this one was the highest probability call.

Do you have a way of objectively quantifying that probability... To calculate an alpha?

Not unless you can build a pattern-matching system that performs T.A. and back-test it over enough data. Otherwise, no, you cannot do any rigorous statistical analysis.

Plus, predicting direction is not the same as a trading strategy. You need a fully-fledged strategy to calculate alpha, not a prediction method.

[S3052]

Just wondering which time frames you watch most carefully.
I'm watching a shooting star form on the daily and weekly charts which are overbought.
and the 15 minute chart looks like it's turned around on you.
But I have a habit of being wrong more than 90% of the time

I am watching always 2 arrays of time frames:
short term (hourly, 15min and shorter)
mid/long term (daily, weekly)
And then putting the conclusions together of those sets of information.


And on top of all the time frames and indicators, I use my experience gained over the past 12 years, which results in a kind of gut feeling (which essentially is a synthesis of what the brain has soaked in and filtered and saved..). This one I cant really explain ...

By the way, I am more active in the forum than usual since I have 1 week off my normal job. Although I really like being more active here, don't expect the same frequency of responses in the next weeks.


On the question about the direction of the BTC/USD market, I have just completed an in-depth longterm analysis.

Tops are typically hardest to pick, no matter of short or mid/long term tops. My highest probability view is that we have not seen a top yesterday. The uptrend is very robust.
http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/04/bitcoin-market-analysis-special-long-term-update-april-24th-2011-by-s3052/

[Bimmerhead]

In your blog posting did you mean to say that we are oversold, or overbought?

[S3052]

Overbought. It is corrected now (thanks for spotting the typo)

[pjwaffle]

I'm bearish/neutral at the moment.

[S3052]

Bitcoin Techncial Update. Bull flag with most likely break out to the upside.

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/

[sturle]

Bitcoin Techncial Update. Bull flag with most likely break out to the upside.

A dark ask at 1.6 (very low compared to the smallest visible ask when it showed up) kept the bulls back until the bears woke up.  The bears are not in control either.  My guess is there will still be cheap coins to buy at or below 1.6 until tomorrow when the Europeans are back from their Easter holidays and banks start processing transactions again.

[S3052]

Yes, the pattern down from the high is not bearish.

Low volume, slow move downwards.

It seems we get another bull run soon. Just depends from where it exactly will start.

[S3052]

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