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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
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Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509212 times)
sandos
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May 16, 2011, 09:56:53 AM
 #781

We are in a "x-mas tree" pattern

aaah, come on, now you're just making stuff up.

I think it's the shape of italy's west coast.



Note that time might reverse when we hit Genova. BTC still on track even then Wink

(S3052, don't take this the wrong way, plz)

This post would have you earned you a tip from if this was witcoin! Love it.
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S3052
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May 16, 2011, 06:02:54 PM
 #782

This is what I started in another thread:http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=8453.msg123329#msg123329


All,

some of you have seen my Bitcoin Technical / Market analysis.

After 9 months of service since October 2010 (see http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0), I want to build on it and expand it. .
I will still plan to keep my 2x per week regular updates on bitcoinwatch for all people.

What is new is that as some of you have suggested, I will offer a subscription based analysis.

This subscription service provides:
  • Weekly in depth Bitcoin (BTC/USD) analysis
  • Covers all time frames
  • Includes Elliott Wave analysis and trading recommendations based on that
  • Offers on top trading alerts
  • Allows 1x per month a tailored analysis for your specific trading needs


The subscription will be handled simply by me sharing the analysis with you per email in a pdf format. You can register via PM, sharing an email contact, and paying the monthly subscription in Bitcoins. The service will start in June `11. Initially I take maximum 20 people. Price will be 5 BTC / month. Send me a private mail to register on first come, first serve basis.

For info, I have already given individual, specific trading recommendations to some people tailored to their needs and they are very satisfied.

Thanks for your trust already. I have already 5 out of 20 subscribers.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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coined
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May 16, 2011, 07:14:14 PM
 #783

should we be expecting somebody to buy everything up to $10 in one go any moment? thats a pattern lately, everytime the sells mount up relative to the buys and take over the chart, we all see the "sell pressure" and conclude a downwards trend is about to happen, or this correction were all waiting on, it begins to happen a bit and then BAM! somebody buys everything that was on the page, thats been how most of the big upward spikes happened in the last weeks, the big buyers seem to be waiting for these moments when the sells start piling up so they can get them in one buy, maybe its safer than them driving up the market even faster with a 100k buy order sitting there,

again im just a pleb with no experience thinking out loud   Grin it could very well be the start of a huge sell hitting parity in 3 days  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Cheeseman
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May 16, 2011, 08:19:23 PM
 #784

We may see record high prices this week with all of the media attention from Reddit/BoingBoing that took down the site/forums earlier today. I don't think we'll see this new attention reflected in BTC price until late this week, as it takes a couple days to get money to the exchanges.
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May 16, 2011, 08:35:39 PM
 #785

We may see record high prices this week with all of the media attention from Reddit/BoingBoing that took down the site/forums earlier today. I don't think we'll see this new attention reflected in BTC price until late this week, as it takes a couple days to get money to the exchanges.

I placed a $1000 bet on this yesterday, we'll see how it goes. Smiley

http://media.witcoin.com/p/1608/8----This-is-nuts

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S3052
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May 16, 2011, 08:45:18 PM
 #786

As promised, here is tonight's technical analysis.


Donations accepted here:
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http://bit.ly/iOcbmg

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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proudhon
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May 17, 2011, 05:27:38 AM
 #787

We may see record high prices this week with all of the media attention from Reddit/BoingBoing that took down the site/forums earlier today. I don't think we'll see this new attention reflected in BTC price until late this week, as it takes a couple days to get money to the exchanges.

I placed a $1000 bet on this yesterday, we'll see how it goes. Smiley

I guess you're betting that s3052 is wrong.
brocktice
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May 17, 2011, 01:29:53 PM
 #788

We may see record high prices this week with all of the media attention from Reddit/BoingBoing that took down the site/forums earlier today. I don't think we'll see this new attention reflected in BTC price until late this week, as it takes a couple days to get money to the exchanges.

I placed a $1000 bet on this yesterday, we'll see how it goes. Smiley

I guess you're betting that s3052 is wrong.

Seems that way. I can't see how this enormous publicity will not lead to an increase in prices over the next week or so. I'm sure there's some way, but the probability of it dropping rather than increasing seems small to me.

http://media.witcoin.com/p/1608/8----This-is-nuts

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eof
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May 17, 2011, 01:37:49 PM
 #789

I wonder what people think now that we have held just under 8 for a bit?  I think judging the market based on the depth is a joke; 1k to be in the darkpool is very low entry at this point and I suspect there is more depth there than out in the open.

I am still long on btc; but I hedged a bit against a downswing by converting some btc into a mining rig.  However, each day horizontal makes the downswing much less likely as the demand for btc from new entrants, I believe (based on back of the napkin math) will easily attain 60k a day.

All the large holders of BTC (with the exception of the earliest investors and entrepreneurs) are pretty much by definition believers in BTC and I think, are far more likely to be looking long long long.  With only 7200 coins a day trickling into the economy and more and more money chasing after them, after everyone who has taken their profit has sold: 62.2k new dollars into the bitcoin economy == an 8.5 valuation.  

I think we will continue to see levels like that and higher, and thus btc will likely rally again as soon as would-be investors are convinced they aren't going to get the 20% discount they were hoping for.


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May 18, 2011, 06:22:04 PM
 #790

Quote
I'd love to see a pullback to at least 5 but my suspicion is that we'll see a consolidation in the 7 range with slight upward drift for a little over a week.  This will set us up for a decisive attack on 10.

So far this call is on track.  If we pull back from here it won't last long and my suspicion is we could test 10 sooner than later.  Some big names are starting to give bitcoin their attention. 
Current-C
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May 18, 2011, 07:01:10 PM
 #791

I, personally, assume that all TA gurus simply front run their analysis and basically talking up their books. From time to time at least. IMO it all should be taken with a HUGE grain of salt.

s3052 put in lot of effort to get himself into a position of an Oracle capable of issuing self fulfilling prophecies. Kudos to him for that.

Still lots of fun watching all these struggles from the sidelines.



I suppose that's possible but I'd be surprised if even s3052 wields enough influence to move the market with any degree of consistency.  I think you could probably do more to move the price by starting rumors in the main discussion threads.  My thought is that the price will be impacted most in the months to come by the waves of new people becoming interested in bitcoins who probably won't pay any attention to what is said here. 

Anyhow if you make all of your trading decisions based on one person's TA of the market (especially this one) you probably won't be trading for long. 
FreeMoney
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May 18, 2011, 10:19:15 PM
 #792

I, personally, assume that all TA gurus simply front run their analysis and basically talking up their books. From time to time at least. IMO it all should be taken with a HUGE grain of salt.

s3052 put in lot of effort to get himself into a position of an Oracle capable of issuing self fulfilling prophecies. Kudos to him for that.

Still lots of fun watching all these struggles from the sidelines.



It would be pretty damn silly to let your readers front run you, so yeah, I think so.

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
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May 18, 2011, 10:52:56 PM
 #793

Hmm price is sagging quite a bit. I guess those supposed big deposits haven't cleared mt. gox yet? Tongue

s3052, what do you think are the current support and resistance levels?

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May 19, 2011, 01:01:32 AM
 #794

buyers are probably chomping at the bit waiting for the influx of dwolla/gox money
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May 19, 2011, 03:44:09 AM
 #795

short term chart looks gross. proceed with caution men.
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May 19, 2011, 06:00:48 AM
 #796

Hmm price is sagging quite a bit. I guess those supposed big deposits haven't cleared mt. gox yet? Tongue

s3052, what do you think are the current support and resistance levels?

Here you go
http://twitter.com/#!/BitcoinAnalyst

In a nutshell, given the huge sell orders and the changed short term trend to down, buyers do not need to rush to buy now from a technical perspective.
We are in a similar situation as Nov '10 - Dec '10 and Mar - Apr '10. Prices continue down and this can last a couple of months.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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coined
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May 19, 2011, 01:14:57 PM
 #797

If I had to choose a future between a consistent btc price increase or total network hashing power increase over next month or 3, I would choose the hashing power(as long as all the new guys don't just jump on deepbit and give him 75%....) we need the security of the network to catch up to the new attention bitcoin is getting right now, the value of btc is nothing without it, so a steady down trend or hold in btc prices while the network catches up is fine with me for the foreseeable future, that's close to what happened after we hit parity the first time is it not? overbought to parity = lots of attention, steady down trend correction while network got stronger and stronger, leading to this recent rally putting us back in the same position.

bear in mind folks I'm not an expert... on anything, it's just what i would feel more comfortable with Grin
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May 19, 2011, 01:25:14 PM
 #798

I don't think the network hashing power is too low by any stretch.  Though, I also help newbies help weaken deepbit's share.
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May 19, 2011, 06:55:21 PM
 #799

As promised, here is tonight's technical analysis.


Donations a bit here:
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http://bit.ly/kPhS2s

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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May 20, 2011, 05:07:16 AM
 #800

Alright I'm going to reiterate my call that we're going to break out of the trading range to the upside and push through ten, with a high around 12.  Hoping I'm wrong and we follow s3052's call to 5 or lower -- I'd love to buy more at that price.  Feel free to use this as a contrarian indicator  Smiley
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