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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 533253 times)
MoonShadow
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December 06, 2010, 09:26:27 PM
 #161

Any idea about the cause? Is it related to the remark of mtgox, that if they didn't have the dark pool, the price would be around $0.06?

Doubtful.  Most likely it is the result of the combination of the market effects of the QEII news wearing off, the ongoing base expansion of Bitcoin, and normal market fluctuations.  Truth be told, no one can really say for certian until after the fact; which is also generally true with the stock markets.  Those market pundits that get paid so much money to go on news shows to explain the twists of the markets are really just offering up an educated guess, but aren't going to display their own uncertainty, because outward confidence is what much of their own income is dependent upon.  Elliot wave theory doesn't depend on causes, but simply makes predictions based on analysis of the market price movements.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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probiwon.com


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December 06, 2010, 09:27:43 PM
 #162

Both events coincided with the fraud.

Better start to focus on the https://www.bitcoinmarket.com/ too, because as far as I know there is no newbies due to the closure of registration

New bitcoin lottery: probiwon.com
- Может, ты ещё и в Невидимую Руку Рынка веруешь? - Зачем же веровать в то, что можно наблюдать непосредственно?
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December 06, 2010, 09:38:32 PM
 #163


Doubtful.  Most likely it is the result of the combination of the market effects of the QEII news wearing off, the ongoing base expansion of Bitcoin, and normal market fluctuations.  Truth be told, no one can really say for certian until after the fact; which is also generally true with the stock markets.  Those market pundits that get paid so much money to go on news shows to explain the twists of the markets are really just offering up an educated guess, but aren't going to display their own uncertainty, because outward confidence is what much of their own income is dependent upon.  Elliot wave theory doesn't depend on causes, but simply makes predictions based on analysis of the market price movements.

Exaclty. This Elloitt wave principle, coupled with other technical analysis and sentiment measures proved to be successful for me over the past decade, in all the bull and bear markets.

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December 06, 2010, 11:36:15 PM
 #164

http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=92

Here is tonights update.

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December 08, 2010, 10:15:14 PM
 #165

1

S3052
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December 10, 2010, 09:30:22 PM
 #166

I am away from my computer  and will not be able to issue tonights update in full.
I will make up for that tomorrow.

In short, the upside discussed Wednesday has not yet materialized, because the consolidation continued .
at the same time , selling volume is low which shows some bullish divergence.
if some serious buyers step in, the upside can materialize quickly.

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December 11, 2010, 11:50:22 AM
 #167

1

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December 13, 2010, 07:36:07 PM
 #168

1

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December 15, 2010, 08:37:38 PM
 #169

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December 17, 2010, 10:04:22 PM
 #170

Brief update as I am travelling:

RALLY is on track. Next target 0.28-0.29 $.


More to come latest Sunday.

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December 19, 2010, 07:14:41 PM
 #171

1

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December 19, 2010, 07:15:24 PM
 #172

please don't forget to vote on the sentiment question.

thanks

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December 20, 2010, 09:33:28 PM
 #173

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December 22, 2010, 08:11:47 PM
 #174

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December 24, 2010, 09:01:57 PM
 #175

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da2ce7
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Live and Let Live


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December 25, 2010, 12:23:06 AM
 #176

@S3052

I have sent you a PM, please check.

One off NP-Hard.
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December 27, 2010, 08:53:51 PM
 #177

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S3052
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January 02, 2011, 09:28:36 PM
 #178

Welcome in an exciting year for Bitcoins. I wish you a great, happy and healthy year 2011.
Tonight I want to particularly thank tcatm for the great charting website, which enabled a true stepchange in BTC market analysis and I am sure you all use and tell your friends who are interested to follow BTCs.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/

Now to tonight's Technical BTC Update, the first in 2011 (charts can be found here: http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=153).


Our forecast remains fully on track . The trend is UP since the Dec 7 low. Prices have strongly moved higher on rising volume and hit 0.30 $ (up more than 600% over the past 5 months).

Only if the big support around 0.17-0.20 is breached again materially, further declines are possible towards 0.1 - 0.14 $.

Otherwise the longterm rally is intact.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
We are in an almost textbook-type rally. Prices are on their way towards 0.35 $ (stronger resistance) and then 0.50 $ (all time high, very weak resistance as trading volume at the peak was negligable, see Nov 7 peak chart, 2nd chart in this post). Upside almost seems unlimited if markets continue to be that strong and further funds will be inflowing. I will update on price targets when we get beyond the 0.50 $ high. We are currently in a third of a third wave up which typically surprise on the upside, and in turn it is dangerous to bet on the downside.


2. Short term update

Forecast also fully on track on a short term basis. Upper short term resistance of 0.25-0.26 has just been cleared. The dark pool ASK at 0.25 has been evaporated. Prices will likely move towards 0.35 once psychological resistance at 0.30 $ is taken out. Expect this resistance to be minor.

Next regular update Wednesday, Jan 5th.

Your S3052

S3052
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January 02, 2011, 09:34:35 PM
 #179

For your info:
I am also active on forexfactory http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4280291#post4280291


and we got an interesting comment from one member:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4280020&postcount=58

FreeMoney
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January 03, 2011, 03:32:41 AM
 #180

For your info:
I am also active on forexfactory http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4280291#post4280291


and we got an interesting comment from one member:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4280020&postcount=58


faith-backed, pfft.

People gotta lose this "backed" mentality imo. Gold is not backed, it IS gold. Bitcoin is not backed, it IS bitcoin. And bitcoin has a higher value density Smiley

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
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