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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 504149 times)
MoonShadow
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December 06, 2010, 09:26:27 PM
 #161

Any idea about the cause? Is it related to the remark of mtgox, that if they didn't have the dark pool, the price would be around $0.06?

Doubtful.  Most likely it is the result of the combination of the market effects of the QEII news wearing off, the ongoing base expansion of Bitcoin, and normal market fluctuations.  Truth be told, no one can really say for certian until after the fact; which is also generally true with the stock markets.  Those market pundits that get paid so much money to go on news shows to explain the twists of the markets are really just offering up an educated guess, but aren't going to display their own uncertainty, because outward confidence is what much of their own income is dependent upon.  Elliot wave theory doesn't depend on causes, but simply makes predictions based on analysis of the market price movements.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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December 06, 2010, 09:27:43 PM
 #162

Both events coincided with the fraud.

Better start to focus on the https://www.bitcoinmarket.com/ too, because as far as I know there is no newbies due to the closure of registration

New bitcoin lottery: probiwon.com
- Может, ты ещё и в Невидимую Руку Рынка веруешь? - Зачем же веровать в то, что можно наблюдать непосредственно?
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December 06, 2010, 09:38:32 PM
 #163


Doubtful.  Most likely it is the result of the combination of the market effects of the QEII news wearing off, the ongoing base expansion of Bitcoin, and normal market fluctuations.  Truth be told, no one can really say for certian until after the fact; which is also generally true with the stock markets.  Those market pundits that get paid so much money to go on news shows to explain the twists of the markets are really just offering up an educated guess, but aren't going to display their own uncertainty, because outward confidence is what much of their own income is dependent upon.  Elliot wave theory doesn't depend on causes, but simply makes predictions based on analysis of the market price movements.

Exaclty. This Elloitt wave principle, coupled with other technical analysis and sentiment measures proved to be successful for me over the past decade, in all the bull and bear markets.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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December 06, 2010, 11:36:15 PM
 #164

http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=92

Here is tonights update.

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December 08, 2010, 10:15:14 PM
 #165

http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=96

here is tonight's update.

Please donate a couple of coins to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

Your S3052

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December 10, 2010, 09:30:22 PM
 #166

I am away from my computer  and will not be able to issue tonights update in full.
I will make up for that tomorrow.

In short, the upside discussed Wednesday has not yet materialized, because the consolidation continued .
at the same time , selling volume is low which shows some bullish divergence.
if some serious buyers step in, the upside can materialize quickly.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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December 11, 2010, 11:50:22 AM
 #167

Here the new update:

http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=102

Donate a couple of coins to keep it alive.
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December 13, 2010, 07:36:07 PM
 #168


here is tonight's update.



http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=107




Please donate a couple of coins to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9


Your S3052

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December 15, 2010, 08:37:38 PM
 #169

here is tonight's update.

http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=112


As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update. Please donate a couple of coins to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

The trend is UP since the Dec 7 low. Next targets are 0.28-0.29 $ (+20% from today's price) and 0.30-0.35$.

Only if the big support around 0.17-0.20 is breached again materially, the sell off may resume towards 0.1 - 0.14 $.

Otherwise the longterm rally is intact.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
The big news tonight is that BTC/USD has reclaimed the longterm trendline, which is running around 0.23 $ and slowly rising.


2. Short term update

The second news today is that (as predicted in last update), prices broke out of the downward sloping trendline as evidenced in above chart (black circle).

As indicated above, next target is 0.28-0.29 $, followed by 0.30$ and 0.35$ , before the ATH can be attacked (0.50 $). Longterm upper channel trendline is currently at around 1.40 $/BTC (I will show in one of the next updates a longer term view inlcuding some comments on price targets).


Next update Friday, Dec 17th.

Your S3052



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December 17, 2010, 10:04:22 PM
 #170

Brief update as I am travelling:

RALLY is on track. Next target 0.28-0.29 $.


More to come latest Sunday.

>15years analysis experience

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December 19, 2010, 07:14:41 PM
 #171

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.

First, let me apologize for the delay of the full update since I had to travel unexpectedly.
Second, thanks to all of you who are donating. It really keeps me motivated since I am doing this on top of my 24/7 main job and a big family..
Keep donating to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

Our forecast remains overall on track . The trend is UP since the Dec 7 low. Next targets are 0.28-0.29 $ (+20% from today's price) and 0.30-0.35$.

Only if the big support around 0.17-0.20 is breached again materially, further declines are possible towards 0.1 - 0.14 $.

Otherwise the longterm rally is intact.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
As mentioned before, BTC/USD has reclaimed the longterm trendline, which is running around 0.235 $ and slowly rising.
Today I am adding another refresher from the Elliott Wave analysis I did over the weekend (for theory and explainations see also elliottwave.com): After a clear 5-wave impulsive wave (which we can label intermediate wave I) to the Nov 9 high, we have completed a clear 3-wave (a-b-c) correction to the Dec 7 low (intermendiate wave II). And now, we have started the next bigger wave up (intermediate wave III). Third waves are typically the strongest waves and can lead to big price action.
If this is really a thrid wave, the price target is at least the upper trendline from the parallel trendchannel that can be drawn in the logarithmic chart. Currently, this line crosses at around 1.0-1.4 $.


2. Short term update

Over the past few days, prices move along the trendline. Price action is supported by strong volume on the upside and low volume on the downside, which is bullish.


Next short term target is 0.28-0.29 $, followed by 0.30$ and 0.35$ , before the ATH can be attacked (0.50 $).


all charts can be found here
http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=120

Next update Monday, Dec 19th.

Your S3052



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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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December 19, 2010, 07:15:24 PM
 #172

please don't forget to vote on the sentiment question.

thanks

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December 20, 2010, 09:33:28 PM
 #173

here is tonight's update.

http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=127[/b]]http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=127

Please donate a couple of coins to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9


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December 22, 2010, 08:11:47 PM
 #174

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.
Keep donating to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

Our forecast remains fully on track . The trend is UP since the Dec 7 low. Prices have today broken out further to the upside and are moving towards the targets of 0.30-0.35$. This will not be a straight line, with some consolidations on the way (like over the past hours).

Only if the big support around 0.17-0.20 is breached again materially, further declines are possible towards 0.1 - 0.14 $.

Otherwise the longterm rally is intact.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
no change. trend is clearly UP

2. Short term update

Let's focus on the 5d chart which shows a key support at 0.24 $.

Upper short term resistance is now 0.262-0.275. Once this level is cleared, prices will likley move towards 0.22 and then 0.30-0.35.



Next update Friday, Dec 24th. Let's see what christmas gift you get from me in the Dec 24 uodate and what I get from you guys :-) I am excited :-)

Your S3052

for the charts, go to:
http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=134



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December 24, 2010, 09:01:57 PM
 #175

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update with a special christman volume analysis.
Keep donating to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=138

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December 25, 2010, 12:23:06 AM
 #176

@S3052

I have sent you a PM, please check.

One off NP-Hard.
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December 27, 2010, 08:53:51 PM
 #177

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update. (for personal reasons I will not be able to analyse the market closely until Jan 1st, 2011. I will try to alert in case somethinh major happens, but I cannot guarantee.
Keep donating to keep it alive.
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charts on http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=145

Our forecast remains fully on track . The trend is UP since the Dec 7 low. Prices are moving towards the targets of 0.30-0.35$. This will not be a straight line, with some consolidations on the way.

Only if the big support around 0.17-0.20 is breached again materially, further declines are possible towards 0.1 - 0.14 $.

Otherwise the longterm rally is intact.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
We are in rally mode. As evidenced by the below chart, prices are above the key trendline (red) and have also broken out of a downsloping trendline (green). Prices are on their way towards 0.30-0.35 and then 0.50 $ (all time high). Further upside to 1.00 $ parity is probably, especially if further funds are inflowing.


2. Short term update

Upper short term resistance of 0.25-0.26 has just been cleared. The dark pool ASK at 0.25 has been evaporated. Prices will likley move towards 0.30-0.35.

Next regular update Sunday, Jan 1st.

Your S3052



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January 02, 2011, 09:28:36 PM
 #178

Welcome in an exciting year for Bitcoins. I wish you a great, happy and healthy year 2011.
Tonight I want to particularly thank tcatm for the great charting website, which enabled a true stepchange in BTC market analysis and I am sure you all use and tell your friends who are interested to follow BTCs.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/

Now to tonight's Technical BTC Update, the first in 2011 (charts can be found here: http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=153).
Please donate some BTCs to keep it alive.

1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

Our forecast remains fully on track . The trend is UP since the Dec 7 low. Prices have strongly moved higher on rising volume and hit 0.30 $ (up more than 600% over the past 5 months).

Only if the big support around 0.17-0.20 is breached again materially, further declines are possible towards 0.1 - 0.14 $.

Otherwise the longterm rally is intact.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
We are in an almost textbook-type rally. Prices are on their way towards 0.35 $ (stronger resistance) and then 0.50 $ (all time high, very weak resistance as trading volume at the peak was negligable, see Nov 7 peak chart, 2nd chart in this post). Upside almost seems unlimited if markets continue to be that strong and further funds will be inflowing. I will update on price targets when we get beyond the 0.50 $ high. We are currently in a third of a third wave up which typically surprise on the upside, and in turn it is dangerous to bet on the downside.


2. Short term update

Forecast also fully on track on a short term basis. Upper short term resistance of 0.25-0.26 has just been cleared. The dark pool ASK at 0.25 has been evaporated. Prices will likely move towards 0.35 once psychological resistance at 0.30 $ is taken out. Expect this resistance to be minor.

Next regular update Wednesday, Jan 5th.

Your S3052

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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January 02, 2011, 09:34:35 PM
 #179

For your info:
I am also active on forexfactory http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4280291#post4280291


and we got an interesting comment from one member:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4280020&postcount=58

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January 03, 2011, 03:32:41 AM
 #180

For your info:
I am also active on forexfactory http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4280291#post4280291


and we got an interesting comment from one member:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4280020&postcount=58


faith-backed, pfft.

People gotta lose this "backed" mentality imo. Gold is not backed, it IS gold. Bitcoin is not backed, it IS bitcoin. And bitcoin has a higher value density Smiley

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
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