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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 503745 times)
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May 20, 2011, 06:51:19 PM
 #801

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May 20, 2011, 06:58:01 PM
 #802

I am still waiting to get my coins back. my precious.
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May 20, 2011, 07:46:08 PM
 #803

I was skeptical of some of your predictions for a while, S3052, but this latest "unexpected" sell-off is really winning me over.

Vires In Numeris.
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May 20, 2011, 08:11:11 PM
 #804

I was skeptical of some of your predictions for a while, S3052, but this latest "unexpected" sell-off is really winning me over.

I "earned" 12BTCs from it.  Wink
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May 20, 2011, 08:40:07 PM
 #805

Hmm!  Note the similarity between October/November and April/May in this graph:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2010-09-01zeg2011-05-21zvzlztgSzm1g10zm2g25

Vires In Numeris.
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May 20, 2011, 09:07:42 PM
 #806

All,

I will be away from computers the next 2 days and wanted to leave a short update.

As mentioned, BTC/USD are in a short/medium downtrend from the 8.9$ high. Key downside support levels are

4.7-5.3$ (but this actually is a weaker support that might not hold for very long)
3.5-3.66$ (medium strong support)
1.1$ (very strong)

Only a new high above 8.9$ and better, a break of 10$ will clearly signal the continuation of the (still intact) longterm rally.

have a great weekend and I will share the usual analysis as planned on Monday.

Your S3052

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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May 20, 2011, 10:08:00 PM
 #807

I'm hoping a slide down to 5$, hopefully even 4$, but not much more than that.

167q1CHgVjzLCwQwQvJ3tRMUCrjfqvSznd Donations are welcome Smiley Please be kind if I helped
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May 21, 2011, 12:29:19 AM
 #808

I'm hoping a slide down to 5$, hopefully even 4$, but not much more than that.

You intend to snap up some coins at that price range?

So what does everyone think is the strongest reason for this massive selloff?

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May 21, 2011, 01:01:59 AM
 #809

I'm hoping a slide down to 5$, hopefully even 4$, but not much more than that.

You intend to snap up some coins at that price range?

So what does everyone think is the strongest reason for this massive selloff?

Increased difficulty means miners need to sell more to cover cost, and my guess is some major buyers are not buying anymore (already got their investment).
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May 21, 2011, 01:11:04 AM
 #810

 
I'm hoping a slide down to 5$, hopefully even 4$, but not much more than that.

You intend to snap up some coins at that price range?

So what does everyone think is the strongest reason for this massive selloff?

Maybe these guys who liked bitcoin enough to totally forget about it and then find 40kBTC on their hard drive.

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
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May 21, 2011, 01:41:09 AM
 #811

I suspect fake sales are driving down BTC. Examine large spikes that hardly move the price that also use ‘Dark pool and normal’. Co-conspirators or one person with fictitious accounts….    Wish I’d thought of it.

Todd Bethell, CFM, MBA
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May 21, 2011, 01:51:16 AM
 #812

I suspect fake sales are driving down BTC. Examine large spikes that hardly move the price that also use ‘Dark pool and normal’. Co-conspirators or one person with fictitious accounts….    Wish I’d thought of it.

Good argument against dark pools... If you have enough capital on both sides, you can control the price for only the cost of fees.  The market may not follow your lead, but this market has a lot of inexperienced players.

As we slide down the banister of life, this is just another splinter in our ass.
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May 21, 2011, 01:55:50 AM
 #813

I am against dark pools. If we are to have a true an open exchange all price data should be immediately available to all market participants. No backroom deals!

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May 21, 2011, 02:00:00 AM
 #814

Yes, I am now against the dark pools. When I had a chance to vote I voted for them. But now that I have been 'run over' 3 or 4 times, to the tune of 10,000+ btc I have changed my mind. Magicaltux said I can't change my vote a month after the fact. What kind of democracy is this anyways?   Wink

Todd Bethell, CFM, MBA
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May 21, 2011, 02:02:01 AM
 #815

I suspect fake sales are driving down BTC. Examine large spikes that hardly move the price that also use ‘Dark pool and normal’. Co-conspirators or one person with fictitious accounts….    Wish I’d thought of it.

Good argument against dark pools... If you have enough capital on both sides, you can control the price for only the cost of fees.  The market may not follow your lead, but this market has a lot of inexperienced players.

This is why I made the call awhile back that when the pro's enter the market we'll see a sharp price decline.  People that have the money and know-how to move markets are not going to buy at the top.  Could be that right now or just profit taking by some early entrants.
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May 21, 2011, 02:05:53 AM
 #816


Something's brewing .... keep cool  Cool

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May 21, 2011, 02:15:19 AM
 #817

I suspect fake sales are driving down BTC. Examine large spikes that hardly move the price that also use ‘Dark pool and normal’. Co-conspirators or one person with fictitious accounts….    Wish I’d thought of it.

How can you do that?  I don't quite understand how this would work.
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May 21, 2011, 02:18:27 AM
 #818

I'm not sure about "Dark pool and normal", but for "Dark pool only", you could have two accounts and sell a large quantity for a lower price than current bids to your other account.  Sure, you pay the fees on both sides, but when people see the order go through they see it as a legit trade and adjust their price expectations accordingly.

As we slide down the banister of life, this is just another splinter in our ass.
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May 21, 2011, 05:26:34 AM
 #819

I suspect fake sales are driving down BTC. Examine large spikes that hardly move the price that also use ‘Dark pool and normal’. Co-conspirators or one person with fictitious accounts….    Wish I’d thought of it.

Good argument against dark pools... If you have enough capital on both sides, you can control the price for only the cost of fees.  The market may not follow your lead, but this market has a lot of inexperienced players.

This is why I made the call awhile back that when the pro's enter the market we'll see a sharp price decline.  People that have the money and know-how to move markets are not going to buy at the top.  Could be that right now or just profit taking by some early entrants.

How are new entrants going to push the price down? Won't they need to sell coins to do that? Won't they need to buy them first? Won't that push up the price?

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
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May 21, 2011, 10:34:53 AM
 #820


I'm hoping a slide down to 5$, hopefully even 4$, but not much more than that.

You intend to snap up some coins at that price range?

So what does everyone think is the strongest reason for this massive selloff?

Maybe these guys who liked bitcoin enough to totally forget about it and then find 40kBTC on their hard drive.

Interesting thought, there's probably something to it.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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