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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509474 times)
brocktice
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May 14, 2011, 10:38:08 PM
 #761

S3052, I think people will be paying a whole lot more attention to what you're saying from now on  Grin

I have and continue to pay attention, but lately it's just been so crazy and volatile that imo all bets are off.

http://media.witcoin.com/p/1608/8----This-is-nuts

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allinvain
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May 14, 2011, 11:17:29 PM
 #762

wow we're back to the $6 range...pump and dump or just regular volatility?

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May 14, 2011, 11:37:55 PM
 #763

wow we're back to the $6 range...pump and dump or just regular volatility?

Back up above $7 again. Hope nobody panic sold.

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May 15, 2011, 12:03:42 AM
 #764

S3052, what you think?

"Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment." © S3052
allinvain
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May 15, 2011, 12:42:42 AM
 #765

wow we're back to the $6 range...pump and dump or just regular volatility?

Just big buyers and regular volatility...

Crazy stuff man. This makes the VIX indicator look like an asymptotic curve.


coined
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May 15, 2011, 12:52:30 AM
 #766

I wonder if this panic selling can continue beyond monday/tuesday since the buyers can't get their money transfered in on the weekends,  during the last weekdays all the big sells were followed with massive even bigger buys soon after(surprising us all everytime   Grin), it looks to be much harder for the buyers to do anything about a panic sell off on the weekends, is that a fair observation?

again im just a pleb with no trading experience watching and wondering  Tongue
Current-C
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May 15, 2011, 01:23:02 AM
 #767

I'd love to see a pullback to at least 5 but my suspicion is that we'll see a consolidation in the 7 range with slight upward drift for a little over a week.  This will set us up for a decisive attack on 10.
allinvain
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May 15, 2011, 01:31:34 AM
 #768

I wonder if this panic selling can continue beyond monday/tuesday since the buyers can't get their money transfered in on the weekends,  during the last weekdays all the big sells were followed with massive even bigger buys soon after(surprising us all everytime   Grin), it looks to be much harder for the buyers to do anything about a panic sell off on the weekends, is that a fair observation?

again im just a pleb with no trading experience watching and wondering  Tongue

That's why the bitcoin exchanges should be closed on the weekend like the Forex market - ie close Friday open Sunday Smiley


DukeOfEarl
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May 15, 2011, 02:05:43 AM
 #769

That's why the bitcoin exchanges should be closed on the weekend like the Forex market - ie close Friday open Sunday Smiley

This is more of a case that the Forex should be open 24/7.  So the rest of us can sell when the news comes out rather than only the big players.

duke
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May 15, 2011, 03:08:14 AM
 #770

Agree with you.

And it is even more than that:
The current rate of mining creates 7,000-10,000 bitcoins per day, 50,000 - 70,000 per week, 200,000 - 280,000 per month. This creates a lot of supply which, if not absorbed by buyers of bitcoins results in a  lot of technical overhead pressure on BTC/fiat currencies.
On the other hand, for a completely decentralized "fiat" currency, attracting 160K~224K inflow per month -- like in the past few months -- is quite remarkable.

There are no rich people competing to hoard BTC, which is a healthy thing at this stage. The trading volume shows this is still a very thin market but that can change on a dime any time.
 

Yeah, it's been surprising to watch it all unfold.  It never really was destined to last.  Still, I would contest the assumption that there are no wealthy players involved in Bitcoin.  All that we can really say is that no wealthy players have invested excessively in Bitcoin.
Now you've seen how it looks like when a few rich duds come to town.
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May 15, 2011, 04:18:24 AM
 #771

That's why the bitcoin exchanges should be closed on the weekend like the Forex market - ie close Friday open Sunday Smiley

This is more of a case that the Forex should be open 24/7.  So the rest of us can sell when the news comes out rather than only the big players.

duke

I suppose that can be the case as well, but most news releases come out during the weekday business days. A few items like international conferences and such do happen on Saturday when the markets are closed.


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May 15, 2011, 07:57:35 AM
 #772



Interim update.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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kokjo
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You are WRONG!


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May 15, 2011, 08:01:23 AM
 #773



Interim update.
so? prices will drop more Cheesy glad to hear that.

Sell! Sell! Sell!

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
PseudoCode
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May 15, 2011, 12:17:59 PM
 #774

a couple of questions for S3052 - One thing I have noticed about Bitcoin, is that whenever a large sale of coins happens, dropping the value significantly, is how *quickly* it rebounds, as many others seem to take the opportunity to snap up the newly liberated coins at a lower price.

Is this rapid-recovery tendency a likely indicator of an ever-increasing userbase driving demmand inexorably higher and quickly taking up the slack when a large speculator gets cold feet about continued growth and decides to dump a heap of coins and take their profit ?   

Is the viral spread of news and adoption of bitcoins enough to make it behave *unlike* the normal stock market (that everyone knows exists but only a small percentage of people decide to start playing in normally )and hence explain the rapid-recovery tendency ?
Villem Anton
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May 15, 2011, 03:27:25 PM
 #775

S3052, a tip would be to look at volume in terms of USD. The picture is quite different and it clearly shows that in terms of USD turnover the last few days have been record high. The argument for this is that most new people will decide to invest X USD worth of bitcoins. So the activity should be considered in USD which is quite different when we have seen huge increase in BTC/USD recently.
silversurfer
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May 15, 2011, 03:48:35 PM
 #776

S3052, a tip would be to look at volume in terms of USD. The picture is quite different and it clearly shows that in terms of USD turnover the last few days have been record high. The argument for this is that most new people will decide to invest X USD worth of bitcoins. So the activity should be considered in USD which is quite different when we have seen huge increase in BTC/USD recently.

I agree, this is more relevant.  Volume was record this week.  

Good luck getting money from your bank to Mt. Gox on a weekend.  Wait til next week to sell if that's what you want to do.  

Talk is cheap.  Put your money where your mouth is.

That which is falling should also be pushed.
kinghajj
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May 15, 2011, 10:43:26 PM
 #777

I think this chart says it all, really.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2010-10-09zeg2011-05-16zvzcvzlztgSzm1g10zm2g25
eMansipater
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May 16, 2011, 05:30:13 AM
 #778

All bets are off now that bitcoin is on BoingBoing and they are quoting Calacanis' very bullish newsletter

Quote
Bitcoin is a P2P currency that could topple governments, destabilize economies and create uncontrollable global bazaars for contraband. (...) After month of research and discovery, we've learned the following:
1. Bitcoin is a technologically sound project.
2. Bitcoin is unstoppable without end-user prosecution.
3. Bitcoin is the most dangerous open-source project ever created.
4. Bitcoin may be the most dangerous technological project since the internet itself.
5. Bitcoin is a political statement by technotarians (technological libertarians).*
6. Bitcoins will change the world unless governments ban them with harsh penalties.


from http://www.boingboing.net/2011/05/15/bitcoin-a-new-peer-t.html

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marcus_of_augustus
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May 16, 2011, 05:52:30 AM
 #779


I agree it could be disruptive but I'm not sure that the liberal use of the word "dangerous" is warranted, being as it is subjective in that context.

A liberating force for good maybe dangerous to entrenched status quo interests. But breaking their oppressive stranglehold on the economic freedom of humanity is not dangerous for humanity, it's positively liberating.


S3052
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May 16, 2011, 05:55:19 AM
 #780

This is what I started in another thread:http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=8453.msg123329#msg123329


All,

some of you have seen my Bitcoin Technical / Market analysis.

After 9 months of service since October 2010 (see http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0), I want to build on it and expand it. .
I will still plan to keep my 2x per week regular updates on bitcoinwatch for all people.

What is new is that as some of you have suggested, I will offer a subscription based analysis.

This subscription service provides:
  • Weekly in depth Bitcoin (BTC/USD) analysis
  • Covers all time frames
  • Includes Elliott Wave analysis and trading recommendations based on that
  • Offers on top trading alerts
  • Allows 1x per month a tailored analysis for your specific trading needs


The subscription will be handled simply by me sharing the analysis with you per email in a pdf format. You can register via PM, sharing an email contact, and paying the monthly subscription in Bitcoins. The service will start in June `11. Initially I take maximum 20 people. Price will be 5 BTC / month. Send me a private mail to register on first come, first serve basis.

For info, I have already given individual, specific trading recommendations to some people tailored to their needs and they are very satisfied.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
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