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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 510065 times)
BitterTea
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May 11, 2011, 01:59:33 AM
 #641

Can I make a request? Can we quit it with the random people posting only a screenshot of the MtGox chart with some arrows and BUY written on it?

That is not technical analysis, that is you projecting your desires for the future of Bitcoin.
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epii
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May 11, 2011, 02:03:57 AM
 #642

Can I make a request? Can we quit it with the random people posting only a screenshot of the MtGox chart with some arrows and BUY written on it?

That is not technical analysis, that is you projecting your desires for the future of Bitcoin.
+1

By the way, it looks like at least a few bears just woke up...

Vires In Numeris.
Blitz­
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May 11, 2011, 02:06:24 AM
 #643

Can I make a request? Can we quit it with the random people posting only a screenshot of the MtGox chart with some arrows and BUY written on it?

That is not technical analysis, that is you projecting your desires for the future of Bitcoin.
Okay. Grin Was just having fun.

Not sure where we are headed now. If 5$ won’t hold, my bet would be on a bigger correction.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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May 11, 2011, 02:17:55 AM
 #644

If prices turn back into the trendline below 5 $ on increasing downside momentum, BTC/USD may experience its biggest correction ever, possibly down to 1$.

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Garrett Burgwardt
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May 11, 2011, 02:21:00 AM
 #645

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0Z5zebyVrI
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May 11, 2011, 02:38:39 AM
 #646

Yeah. I think it is time to SELL. Undecided

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nster
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May 11, 2011, 02:46:57 AM
 #647

There's a big buyer trying to push the market upwards, I doubt he'll give up so easily

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May 11, 2011, 02:52:49 AM
 #648

There's a big buyer trying to push the market upwards, I doubt he'll give up so easily

Then we'd better buy before he... oh, wait.

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May 11, 2011, 02:56:42 AM
 #649

Or he played enough and wants to lock in his profit. Undecided

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May 11, 2011, 03:48:58 AM
 #650

We reached 6$. I give up trying to predict this market. It’s pure insanity. Grin

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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May 11, 2011, 03:57:09 AM
 #651

We reached 6$. I give up trying to predict this market. It’s pure insanity. Grin

IF bitcoin is destined to become the global currency of the world, than it will be pure insanity for a long time.

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May 11, 2011, 04:12:08 AM
 #652

Trades are all over the place in the wee hours of the morning.  Low of $4.60 and high of $6.06.  The low was set before the high.  At one point I saw the spread was over a dollar, highest bid at $4.90 and lowest ask at $5.90.

My guess is that this is the result of two would-be market manipulators.  One hoping to spark a rally by setting record highs with a big market buy, and the other hoping to spark a sell-off by clearing out the bids with a big market sell.  Both executing their trades within minutes of each other.


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May 11, 2011, 04:35:19 AM
 #653

There's a big buyer trying to push the market upwards, I doubt he'll give up so easily


Really? You've ruled out the possibility that he wants to get a lot of coins?

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May 11, 2011, 04:37:35 AM
 #654

Trades are all over the place in the wee hours of the morning.  Low of $4.60 and high of $6.06.  The low was set before the high.  At one point I saw the spread was over a dollar, highest bid at $4.90 and lowest ask at $5.90.

My guess is that this is the result of two would-be market manipulators.  One hoping to spark a rally by setting record highs with a big market buy, and the other hoping to spark a sell-off by clearing out the bids with a big market sell.  Both executing their trades within minutes of each other.


Six consecutive weeks of rising prices, i bet on the bull manipulator:)
Of course a sudden drop in price might incites further selling, after all this market it's thin and pretty hard to predict for now but i'm more bullish then bearish. Consider that sellers can monopolize the trading in a stock for a brief period of time, creating a sudden drop in price but then value buyers will step in once the price falls to a point deemed "too low", and bid the shares back up, i think we are seeing right now lots of long term investors attracted by the bitcoin opportunity and others ready to step in once a fast drop materialize.
I'm not much worried.

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May 11, 2011, 06:09:56 AM
 #655

And again I have reset the market sentiment poll.


Up?
Same as now?
Down?
I don't know?

click on the poll above

Please VOTE

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May 11, 2011, 07:14:29 AM
 #656

There's a big buyer trying to push the market upwards, I doubt he'll give up so easily
Why do people think it's this easy to manipulate a market? It would be stupid for one person to buy thousands of BTC just to push the price up, because as soon as he tries to sell such a large amount of coins again the market will crash and he will lose a fortune.
Alex Beckenham
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May 11, 2011, 07:22:42 AM
 #657

There's a big buyer trying to push the market upwards, I doubt he'll give up so easily
Why do people think it's this easy to manipulate a market? It would be stupid for one person to buy thousands of BTC just to push the price up, because as soon as he tries to sell such a large amount of coins again the market will crash and he will lose a fortune.

Not if he pushed the price up by buying publicly on somewhere like mt gox, then sold all his coins privately for $6 each.

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May 11, 2011, 08:52:21 AM
 #658

Not if he pushed the price up by buying publicly on somewhere like mt gox, then sold all his coins privately for $6 each.
You could just as well call that market manipulation by the buyer to keep the price from rising.
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May 11, 2011, 01:47:11 PM
 #659

Here's something interesting.

Take a look at the "Mt Gox All Time Chart" with the "Show Volume" option. Look at the bottom of the orange dots over the past few weeks:



The daily volume varies a lot, but even on quiet days it has been around a minimum of 3000 BTC. Then suddenly in April there's a step jump up to a minimum of around 13000 BTC. And this is when the price started to rise rapidly.

My hypothesis is that a single buyer wants a lot of bitcoins, and has started buying exactly 10,000 coins per day since then. When that buyer has enough coins, the upwards pressure will be removed.

At that time, one of two things will happen. If there has been enough growth of interest in Bitcoin in the meantime, the price will continue to increase but at a slower rate. Otherwise, there will be some price reduction.

As we don't know how many coins this buyer wants, it's impossible to predict when they will stop buying. But I will certainly be on the lookout for a reduction in the daily volume on the quiet days.
Enky1974
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May 11, 2011, 02:20:16 PM
 #660

Here it's more clear, weekly chart since the beginning, done with sierrachart. Impressive 3 weeks expansion with more then 500k btc that changed hands.

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