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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
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Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 508994 times)
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May 09, 2011, 08:12:39 PM
 #601

Exponential growth makes me nervous . . .  Tongue
Exponential shrinkage is what would make me nervous . . .

It probably makes him nervous because exponential growth might imply an exponential slide.

I'd like to see a nice steady bull market with some healthy pullbacks.  Pushing the top of an exponential range smacks of frothiness and could set us up for a crash.  Look what happened to silver recently.  Of course BTC is so thinly traded and is such a disruptive technology we could go much higher without any significant correction.  The agonizing question: Do I wait to buy more at a lower price or is this the lower price . . .
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May 09, 2011, 08:39:19 PM
 #602

I'd like to see a nice steady bull market with some healthy pullbacks.  Pushing the top of an exponential range smacks of frothiness and could set us up for a crash.  Look what happened to silver recently.  Of course BTC is so thinly traded and is such a disruptive technology we could go much higher without any significant correction.  The agonizing question: Do I wait to buy more at a lower price or is this the lower price . . .
Buy 50% now , if it will correct a bit buy the remaining 50% of the 100% amount of usd you wanna invest in btc.

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May 09, 2011, 08:45:55 PM
 #603

Ya, Dollar cost averaging is a good idea in something this volatile.

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May 09, 2011, 09:11:29 PM
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I'd like to see a nice steady bull market with some healthy pullbacks.  Pushing the top of an exponential range smacks of frothiness and could set us up for a crash.  Look what happened to silver recently.  Of course BTC is so thinly traded and is such a disruptive technology we could go much higher without any significant correction.  The agonizing question: Do I wait to buy more at a lower price or is this the lower price . . .
Unlike stocks and industry commodities, the wealth measuring tools such as gold/silver/bitcoin can never have "bubbles", the commonly referred gold-bubble of 1980 would never exist in a gold standard world.

Barring any manipulation, their values should purely depend on how much a percentage of the world population accepts them as storage of value and media of exchange.

In today's dollar dominant fiat environment, I believe the prices of gold, silver and bitcoin are greatly undervalued, for different reasons. The formers are manipulated down by government policies, the latter is just not well known to the public, also the would-be manipulators haven't figured out how to manipulate bitcoin "physical" market without those fancy derivative tools. Want to have margin trading, options, and more liquidity? be careful what you wish for.

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May 09, 2011, 09:28:25 PM
 #605

I find BTC grossly over-speculated atm. BTC value should be set so that it is semi-profitable to mine

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May 09, 2011, 09:34:49 PM
 #606

What is "over speculation"? What data led you to your conclusion? If this is purely your opinion, I think it would be best if you would state so explicitly.
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May 09, 2011, 09:48:30 PM
 #607

I find BTC grossly over-speculated atm. BTC value should be set so that it is semi-profitable to mine

Price determines difficulty which should theoretically always settle at semi-profitability. However, due to difficulty adjustments not being real-time, there will always be some amount of dislocation. So I'm not sure how you can use that as a basis for the claim of "over-speculation".
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May 09, 2011, 09:54:05 PM
 #608

I find BTC grossly over-speculated atm. BTC value should be set so that it is semi-profitable to mine
Don't let the tail wag the dog, whereas the acceptance of bitcoin as value measurement is the "dog" and mining is the tail.
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May 10, 2011, 01:33:20 AM
 #609

I just dont understand how bitcoin value can jump by 5x~7x like this and NOT be over valued... And after big rises, almost every time there is a correction phase. IMO, thsi point has come, it shows in the charts too

Bitcoin seems to be too much of an up down thing, we gotta stabilize unless we want a sudden selling panic once BTC is less profitable! And you say because difficulty is not in real time.... difficulty just changed, I do not see the BTC value going up.... why? the over-speculation engulfed it without a problem

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May 10, 2011, 01:38:46 AM
 #610

I just dont understand how bitcoin value can jump by 5x~7x like this and NOT be over valued... And after big rises, almost every time there is a correction phase. IMO, thsi point has come, it shows in the charts too

Bitcoin seems to be too much of an up down thing, we gotta stabilize unless we want a sudden selling panic once BTC is less profitable! And you say because difficulty is not in real time.... difficulty just changed, I do not see the BTC value going up.... why? the over-speculation engulfed it without a problem

It could have been undervalued before?  It's really hard to say whether something is overspeculated until after the fact.  Outside of currency trading, btc is worth basically what you can purchase with it, yes?

That means one medium sized retailer accepting bitcoin is immediately adding,10-20M USD (or whatever the retail value of their stock is) to the value of bitcoin. 
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May 10, 2011, 01:39:03 AM
 #611

nster: How many bitcoins do you have? I'll buy them from you at a discount, before the crash happens, for completely altruistic reasons. Wink
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May 10, 2011, 01:50:44 AM
 #612

nster: How many bitcoins do you have? I'll buy them from you at a discount, before the crash happens, for completely altruistic reasons. Wink

I sold 500$ worth today and am keeping 250BTC knowing that bitcoin will rise one way or another past the 4$ mark, dunno if it there is a correction thats going to be done or not yet, and I wanted a bit of safe ground, as well as $$ to invest into BTC is there is such a correction anytime soon

I'm 18, so this is alot of my money lol, I still have faith in BTC Smiley I just gottta criticize it

I've dealt with stocks, but even day to day trading with BTC is sooooooooooo much easier than stocks, let alone longer term

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May 10, 2011, 02:04:00 AM
 #613

I just dont understand how bitcoin value can jump by 5x~7x like this and NOT be over valued... And after big rises, almost every time there is a correction phase. IMO, thsi point has come, it shows in the charts too

Bitcoin seems to be too much of an up down thing, we gotta stabilize unless we want a sudden selling panic once BTC is less profitable! And you say because difficulty is not in real time.... difficulty just changed, I do not see the BTC value going up.... why? the over-speculation engulfed it without a problem

Why would price go up as a result of difficulty increasing, when I just stated price determines difficulty? Seems that difficulty increasing due to the recent rising price is exactly in line with what I'm saying.

Bitcoins are still utilized by a very small userbase, maybe 15-30,000 people. The only way for new users to start using Bitcoins are to sell goods, most notably USD, in exchange. This increases demand for Bitcoins and causes a rise in the price. The more popular Bitcoin becomes, the greater the amount of people that will demand it, and the greater the price of Bitcoins. Other than that, there is no 'fundamental' price that Bitcoin should be valued at. At the levels of liquidity we're at now and the relatively small nature of the Bitcoin market, it is understandable that we will see wild swings. Not to mention, that even modest adoption of Bitcoin by a few medium sized investors could significantly move the market higher. It's not hard to imagine several scenarios that could easily cause the market to explode higher, a high profile mainstream media feature, adoption by a single large poker site, a large investor taking a gamble on an ideologically agreeable good, money launderers figuring out the benefits, or some other catalyst that could occur TOMORROW.

Honestly, if the libertarian Koch brothers understood the implications of Bitcoin, then throwing just a million USD (play money to them) to blow up the Bitcoin market and resulting media frenzy would do more for their causes then the tens of millions they donate to CATO, etc. every year.
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May 10, 2011, 02:35:05 AM
 #614

I just dont understand how bitcoin value can jump by 5x~7x like this and NOT be over valued... And after big rises, almost every time there is a correction phase. IMO, thsi point has come, it shows in the charts too

Bitcoin seems to be too much of an up down thing, we gotta stabilize unless we want a sudden selling panic once BTC is less profitable! And you say because difficulty is not in real time.... difficulty just changed, I do not see the BTC value going up.... why? the over-speculation engulfed it without a problem

Why would price go up as a result of difficulty increasing, when I just stated price determines difficulty? Seems that difficulty increasing due to the recent rising price is exactly in line with what I'm saying.

Bitcoins are still utilized by a very small userbase, maybe 15-30,000 people. The only way for new users to start using Bitcoins are to sell goods, most notably USD, in exchange. This increases demand for Bitcoins and causes a rise in the price. The more popular Bitcoin becomes, the greater the amount of people that will demand it, and the greater the price of Bitcoins. Other than that, there is no 'fundamental' price that Bitcoin should be valued at. At the levels of liquidity we're at now and the relatively small nature of the Bitcoin market, it is understandable that we will see wild swings. Not to mention, that even modest adoption of Bitcoin by a few medium sized investors could significantly move the market higher. It's not hard to imagine several scenarios that could easily cause the market to explode higher, a high profile mainstream media feature, adoption by a single large poker site, a large investor taking a gamble on an ideologically agreeable good, money launderers figuring out the benefits, or some other catalyst that could occur TOMORROW.

Honestly, if the libertarian Koch brothers understood the implications of Bitcoin, then throwing just a million USD (play money to them) to blow up the Bitcoin market and resulting media frenzy would do more for their causes then the tens of millions they donate to CATO, etc. every year.

our adoption likeliness will be very low until we stabilize... companies cant afford there 4$ BTC to be worth 2.5$/BTC the next

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May 10, 2011, 02:38:30 AM
 #615

I'd like to see a nice steady bull market with some healthy pullbacks.  Pushing the top of an exponential range smacks of frothiness and could set us up for a crash.  Look what happened to silver recently.  Of course BTC is so thinly traded and is such a disruptive technology we could go much higher without any significant correction.  The agonizing question: Do I wait to buy more at a lower price or is this the lower price . . .
Unlike stocks and industry commodities, the wealth measuring tools such as gold/silver/bitcoin can never have "bubbles", the commonly referred gold-bubble of 1980 would never exist in a gold standard world.

Barring any manipulation, their values should purely depend on how much a percentage of the world population accepts them as storage of value and media of exchange.

In today's dollar dominant fiat environment, I believe the prices of gold, silver and bitcoin are greatly undervalued, for different reasons. The formers are manipulated down by government policies, the latter is just not well known to the public, also the would-be manipulators haven't figured out how to manipulate bitcoin "physical" market without those fancy derivative tools. Want to have margin trading, options, and more liquidity? be careful what you wish for.



You can't manipulate markets for free. It doesn't matter what tools you have, moving the price from where it 'ought' be costs money. They've got money by the balls right now and we're trying to fix that. Options and futures will smooth the market. I know it looks like they don't in the official markets but it's because everyone has incentive to get on the same side, ride it until it busts and get bailed out. That's not what we'll get with bitcoin, your losses will be yours.

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
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May 10, 2011, 02:39:29 AM
 #616

our adoption likeliness will be very low until we stabilize... companies cant afford there 4$ BTC to be worth 2.5$/BTC the next

Great market for a bitbull to sell 15 day puts for a couple %..
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May 10, 2011, 02:41:13 AM
 #617


our adoption likeliness will be very low until we stabilize... companies cant afford there 4$ BTC to be worth 2.5$/BTC the next

When the market is mature it'll be trivial to hedge that. Decide how much a drop would be too harmful, buy puts there. You can afford it by giving up some of your upside by selling OOTM options.

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May 10, 2011, 03:09:57 AM
 #618

our adoption likeliness will be very low until we stabilize... companies cant afford there 4$ BTC to be worth 2.5$/BTC the next

You mean until fiat currencies stabilize Cheesy

Einstein's theory of relativity and all Cheesy

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May 10, 2011, 03:38:17 AM
 #619

That's not what we'll get with bitcoin, your losses will be yours.
How do you know that will be the case? you assume all market participants are individuals like you and me, free from any organizational or governmental background..... remember bitcoin is and will remain to be a tiny market for quite a while, you don't need a big budget to "get it under control" with proper tools.
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May 10, 2011, 04:22:00 AM
 #620

well, fuck my life... 5$? really? I basically lost 150$ right now ,because I sold a few hours too early?

This is what I hate about BTC Sad Someone decides to buy alot and voila, his BTC is already worth over 50% more

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