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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
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Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 503948 times)
S3052
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February 07, 2011, 09:27:48 PM
 #221

And again, it is Monday and I have reset the market sentiment poll.


Up?
Same as now?
Down?
I don't know?

click on the poll above

Please VOTE again!

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February 08, 2011, 08:18:02 PM
 #222

Based on logscale trendline analysis (see Monday's log scale chart), next big targets are in the 1.5$ to 1.7$ range, which is significant more upside (almost another 100%).

I agree that the recent consolidation is bullish, but there are 38,000 BTC in sell orders on Mt. Gox (not including dark pools) separating us from USD 1.5.  Where will all the demand come from to overtake this?  Or will the sell orders be withdrawn and re-entered at a higher price once traders get whiff of another rally?

"A small body of determined spirits fired by an unquenchable faith in their mission can alter the course of history." --Gandhi
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February 08, 2011, 08:46:08 PM
 #223

Based on logscale trendline analysis (see Monday's log scale chart), next big targets are in the 1.5$ to 1.7$ range, which is significant more upside (almost another 100%).

I agree that the recent consolidation is bullish, but there are 38,000 BTC in sell orders on Mt. Gox (not including dark pools) separating us from USD 1.5.  Where will all the demand come from to overtake this?  Or will the sell orders be withdrawn and re-entered at a higher price once traders get whiff of another rally?

I'm no expert, but it could happen if (a) the growing interest I'm seeing on twitter, etc continues and (b) sell orders also move up as you suggest.

http://media.witcoin.com/p/1608/8----This-is-nuts

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S3052
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February 10, 2011, 06:46:22 PM
 #224

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4388081&posted=1#post4388081

I also usually post here to spread the word in the financial community.

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February 11, 2011, 06:34:53 PM
 #225

**** Quick Alert ****
BTC/USD Prices have again broken 1$ and the overall picture looks very bullish.
We may be just ahead of another significant rally, now that parity is cleared again after some consolidation over the past few days.

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S3052
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February 11, 2011, 07:07:20 PM
 #226

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update. (Un)fortunately my flight in Madrid is delayed so I am using the opportunity to write this article).

Please donate to keep it alive: (I need some BTC to make this worthwhile for me longterm):

1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

In a nutshell, the rally is very strong and is likely to again accelerate. After a brief consolidation around 1.00$ (+-0.10$), the Bitcoin Bulls ("BitBulls") are back.

Analysis

1. Long term outlook

Strong volume is backing the rally. The market recorded the highest ever volume day in currency on Feb 9 and also the entire week is at all time high volumes (see chart below).

Next target is 1.5$ (upper channel logarithmic trendline), then followed by 2$, 5$, 10$ (these are only psychological stopping points). But any of these levels could be evaporated by fund inflows - as the bitcoin market is still tiny compared to all other financial markets.

charts: http://mtgox.com/blog

As long as price do not break the 0.4 area, there is no doubt about the bitcoin rally.


2. Short term update

Short term support is now the 1$ mark, and then the 0.80-0.83 area.



Next update: Monday, 14th.

Your S3052

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February 13, 2011, 09:47:34 AM
 #227

Do you think we will really touch 5-10$ soon? Isn't this a target for the next 5-10 years?

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S3052
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February 14, 2011, 08:17:06 PM
 #228

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.

Please donate to keep it alive (some BTC s per edition are needed to make this worthwhile):

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As indicated on Friday, the bitcoin rally is very strong and the market is comfortably in the hands of the "BitBulls".



Analysis
1. Long term outlook

After making a new all time high at 1.10 $ together with high volumes, the market has consolidated over the weekend.

This does not change the outlook given last week: "Next target is 1.5$ (upper channel logarithmic trendline), then followed by 2$, 5$, 10$ (these are only psychological stopping points). But any of these levels could be evaporated by fund inflows - as the bitcoin market is still tiny compared to all other financial markets." These price targets should not be confused with time targets. I will try to give some outlook on time targets as well soon. However, be aware that price targets are better to forecast than time targets.

Strong bitcoin publicity over the past days can in all likelyhood attract more and bigger investors who can propel the market much higher, given the small size of the market relative to almost all other financial markets. Depending on money flows and investor & market psychology, some price targets can be reached VERY fast or slow...


As long as price do not break the 0.4 area, the bitcoin rally is intact.


2. Short term update

Since the Feb 10 high, prices paint a texbook-type ascending triangle just under 1.10 $.

Typically, this leads to a break out to the upside.


Short term support remains at 1$, and then the 0.80-0.83 area.



Next update: Wednesday, 16th.

Your S3052

charts here:
http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=237

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February 16, 2011, 11:00:44 PM
 #229

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.

Please donate to keep it alive and keep this worthwhile for me:


1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

The rally has been pausing after the huge rally and most probably will break out of the congestion area soon.

Analysis

1. Long term outlook

After making a new all time high at 1.10 $ together with high volumes, the market has consolidated over the past 7 trading days in a narrow range (1.08-1.03 $). Volume in the consolidation is lower, which is BULLISH.

Next significant target is 1.5$ (upper channel logarithmic trendline), then followed by 2$, 5$, 10$ . any of these levels could be evaporated by fund inflows - as the bitcoin market is still tiny compared to all other financial markets.

There is daily more evidence on rising bitcoin awareness (see Gavin's great IGNITE speech). This can attract more and bigger investors who can propel the market much higher, given the small size of the market relative to almost all other financial markets.


As long as price do not break the 0.4 area, the bitcoin rally is intact.

2. Short term update

Since the Feb 10 high, prices consolidate between 1.08-1.03 $. The contracting Bollinger Bands (grey zone in chart below) indicate the a breakout is getting more likely with every trading day. The consolidation pattern can still be counted as a triangle, but the pattern of consolidations can take the shape of 11 different forms (see elliottwave.com). Is is almost impossible to predict if we are in a triangle, a-b-c zigzag correction, flat or any variation of these. But it does not matter. As long as prices do not break down below 1 $ significantly (which is huge support now), the most likely next direction is UP (a break of 1.052 is the first sign, a break above 1.10 $ would be a confirmation).

Some people may ask: why 1.052? This is the upper end of the Bollinger Band and yesterday there was a big dark sell order at that level. Hence, for people who want to buy bitcoins below 1.10 $ it may be a good opportunity if prices break higher soon. Further, the slow stochastics have already turned up.


Next update: Friday, 18th.

http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=246

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S3052
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February 18, 2011, 10:49:29 PM
 #230

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.

Please donate to keep it alive and keep this worthwhile for me:

1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

Bitcoin have started a correction today after breaking the decisive 1$ mark as highlighted previously.

Analysis

1. Long term outlook

The originally bullish consolidation pattern has turned into a breakdown below 1$.
Some key indicators have turned bearish so we may see more days/weeks of correction/consolidation (MACD crossed downwards, and EMA 13 has been broken to the downside)

Still, as long as prices do not break the 0.4 area, the bitcoin rally is intact.


2. Short term update

After the breakdown below 1$, prices have stopped at the 0.8$ mark which has been previously an area of strong buying volume.
This 0.8$ are is now support, and the 1$ mark the resistance.
If 0.8$ does not hold, the next area of support is in the 0.5$ - 0.55$ zone (lower bollinger band).
If prices break out above 1$ the rally can continue to 1.1$ (all time high( and then higher towards 1.5$, 2$, etc.





Next update: Monday, 21st.


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S3052
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February 19, 2011, 09:05:50 AM
 #231

The market sentiment poll is reset again.


Up?
Same as now?
Down?
I don't know?

click on the poll above

Please VOTE! This enriches and improves my BTC/USD forecasts and ultimately helps the community

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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February 20, 2011, 07:49:08 PM
 #232

I reviewed the longterm charts and thought I should share this with you immediately.

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As mentioned in Friday's update, Bitcoin/USD have started a correction after breaking below the decisive 1$ mark as highlighted previously. The key question is how far could this correction go?

To get a better picture, I reviewed the longterm chart, using logarithmic scale which is most appropriate for this strongly rising market.

Key indicators continue to be strongly bearish: The MACD crossed downwards strongly for the first time in record, and Exponential Moving Average 13 has turned down.

When drawing the already often shown and proven longterm trendline through the last significant lows, it is clear that there is potential downside towards 0.5 $.

As long as prices do not break above  the downsloping EMA 13 (at 0.89 $), the downtrend is intact.

A break above 1.0 $ enables a further rally to 1.1$ (all time high, and then higher towards 1.5$, 2$, etc.)

chars here: http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=255

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February 20, 2011, 08:35:49 PM
 #233


So BUY at USD 0.5 = 1 BTC?  Huh

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February 20, 2011, 10:40:35 PM
 #234

Technically, all he's saying is that if prices go down they may pause at that level before they either fall further or start rising again. You can't use it to predict if prices will go up or down from that level.
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February 21, 2011, 09:23:08 PM
 #235

todays update is very short since no change vs by special update from yesterday

The correction is still underway

Another leg down is likely towards 0.7, and possibly down yo 0.5$.

Only a quick rise above 0.89 $ or better 1.0 $ can change this outlook.


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February 22, 2011, 08:05:21 PM
 #236

todays update is very short since no change vs by special update from yesterday

The correction is still underway

Another leg down is likely towards 0.7, and possibly down yo 0.5$.

Only a quick rise above 0.89 $ or better 1.0 $ can change this outlook.


Usually and old resistance become support, 0.50 it's the key line; above it it's good, under it it's bad:)
I think we will stay in the range of 0.5-1 for quite a bit, we need more partecipants reflected in volume activity to see a new phase well beyond 1$.

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February 22, 2011, 08:10:49 PM
 #237

Your comments make a lot of sense

From a long term view,

* Big support is 0.5

* Strong resistance is 1.0 - 1.1 (all time high)

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February 23, 2011, 07:22:38 PM
 #238

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.

Please donate to keep it alive and keep this worthwhile for me:

1P8iS7WLx5n4ixThBRCPEPk9A3dR8bV6qt


BTC/USD are in a correction phase. Bullish sentiment is still 62.2% as measured in my poll since Feb 19 which is still typically to high for the start of a sustained rally. It seems that too many people are invested and not so many can buy and carry a strong rally above resistance levels. This does not mean a rally cannot start from here, but sentiment does not support it.

Key indicators continue to be strongly bearish: The MACD crossed downwards strongly for the first time in record, and Exponential Moving Average 13 has a downward slope.

 

Analysis
1. Longterm outlook:

Prices are trapped between the previous all time high of 0.5 $ and the latest high at 1.1 $. As long as the 0.5 $ level is not broken, we continue to be in a rally. But as long as the 1.1 $ - 1.0 $ area is not broken to the upside, we remain in a correction.

The 0.4-0.5 $  is strong longterm resistance: It is strong because of two reasons: It is horizontal support and logarithmic  trendline resistance.



2. Short term updateShort term, we see the following key levels:

a) Resistance:

* 0.95 $: Right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern (bearish). A break down below 0.8 $ may spark strong selling. The target for that is the same distance from the 1.1 $ high versus 0.8 $ = 0.3 $ downside potential, leading to the 0.5 $ target. This may then be associated with strong and high volume selling.



b) Support

*0.8 $: This level needs to hold to invalidate the head and shoulder bearish pattern.


Next update: Friday, 25th.

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February 25, 2011, 10:13:03 PM
 #239

Here a very brief Technical BTC Update.

Please donate to keep it alive and keep this worthwhile for me:

1P8iS7WLx5n4ixThBRCPEPk9A3dR8bV6qt


BTC/USD remain in a correction phase.

While the short term head and shoulders bearish pattern has been invalidated with the break above 0.95 $, the intermediate correction isprobably  not over.
There is a strong likelyhood that we see another leg down toward 0.8 , or even 0.5 eventually.

Only a strong rise above the 1.0 - 1.1 $ area brings the bull back into the lead.



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February 27, 2011, 06:40:50 PM
 #240



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