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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 503724 times)
Cheeseman
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April 27, 2011, 04:22:54 PM
 #441

We hit the 1.95 mark. It will be interesting to see if the bulls can break through the $2 mark...I think we will start seeing orders go through at $2 today, but we will be back into the $1.6 range by this weekend. It will take another difficulty increase or two to see USD/BTC surpass the $2 mark.
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"The nature of Bitcoin is such that once version 0.1 was released, the core design was set in stone for the rest of its lifetime." -- Satoshi
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April 27, 2011, 10:02:47 PM
 #442


"Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment." © S3052
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April 27, 2011, 10:12:50 PM
 #443

All it takes is a ~20k $ order to evaporate the 2 $ level and generate upside potential way beyond that. Given the healthy technicals, a further acceleration to 5$, 10$ should not surprise people too much.

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LZ
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April 28, 2011, 04:34:49 AM
 #444

My short term forecast was correct. Embarrassed

Okay, anyway... It is going to rise UP in long term.

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April 28, 2011, 04:07:22 PM
 #445


"Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment." © S3052
deadlizard
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April 28, 2011, 04:13:12 PM
 #446

what the eff. $2 - $2.40 in a matter of seconds  Shocked

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April 28, 2011, 04:29:57 PM
 #447

And it is probably just the beginning. Shocked

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April 28, 2011, 04:38:14 PM
 #448

I'm glad I managed to buy 600 BTC today before the rally at $1.9.

I'm not as glad that I still have more to buy with money that is coming in next week.
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April 28, 2011, 06:03:40 PM
 #449

I have stopped daytrading/weektrading for the time being.  Selling is just too risky.

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April 28, 2011, 06:40:35 PM
 #450

Selling is just too risky.

Agreed. I have got it wrong every time that I have sold, and I have ended up buying back into Bitcoin at a higher price.
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April 28, 2011, 07:11:23 PM
 #451

We are definitely seeing a bitcoin bubble here. People are buying into the hype, but once they lose interest and sell off, the market will be down to about dollar parity again. BTC still doesn't have nearly enough buying power to justify a $2.20 exchange rate. I could understand if emerging and innovative services started appearing that drove the use of bitcoins, but prices are wildly out of control for no reason currently. Prices lately haven't even been corresponding to increases in difficulty (ie scarcity).

From a technical perspective, it appears that the bubble is not going to pop for some time. With very little resistance up until $3, we could see prices skyrocket again by this time next week.

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April 28, 2011, 07:21:44 PM
 #452

We are definitely seeing a bitcoin bubble here. People are buying into the hype, but once they lose interest and sell off, the market will be down to about dollar parity again. BTC still doesn't have nearly enough buying power to justify a $2.20 exchange rate.

And you know this, how?  Can you see the trade volume on Silk Road?  In Russia?  In China?  Just because the visable market is small, doesn't mean that the trade volume is entirely speculation.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
Cheeseman
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April 28, 2011, 07:38:01 PM
 #453

We are definitely seeing a bitcoin bubble here. People are buying into the hype, but once they lose interest and sell off, the market will be down to about dollar parity again. BTC still doesn't have nearly enough buying power to justify a $2.20 exchange rate.

And you know this, how?  Can you see the trade volume on Silk Road?  In Russia?  In China?  Just because the visable market is small, doesn't mean that the trade volume is entirely speculation.

And that may be part of the problem. There is no significant business in America/Europe that we can see. I can't see Silk Road or business from China/Russia contributing to much of the $50,000 per day volume we have been seeing traded daily. Hell, the market is too bubbly for money laundering imo. And this is just my opinion - I'm not claiming to have any omniscient powers.

 
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April 28, 2011, 07:59:11 PM
 #454

I could understand if emerging and innovative services started appearing that drove the use of bitcoins, but prices are wildly out of control for no reason currently. 

The way I see it, bitcoin itself is the innovative service.  Value stored in bitcoin is more secure than any dot com, bank, or centralized authority vulnerable to fraud or the recent PSN-style penetration.  It is unseizable, untaxable, and cheaper and more accessible than offshore accounts.  Yes the value stored is speculation, but as we are seeing, with that risk also comes reward.

As long as bitcoins are liquid, the ability to buy goods with them directly has little extra benefit.  Value storage is their main purpose and main business, bitcoin itself is the innovation, and services beyond exchanging are just extra icing.


I still share the concern about bubble formation, but the record strong volume (certainly in dollar terms if not bitcoins) seems to indicate a healthy market.  However, it also seems that as experts are saying about silver, some consolidation would be healthy too.





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April 28, 2011, 08:44:12 PM
 #455

And that may be part of the problem. There is no significant business in America/Europe that we can see. I can't see Silk Road or business from China/Russia contributing to much of the $50,000 per day volume we have been seeing traded daily. Hell, the market is too bubbly for money laundering imo. And this is just my opinion - I'm not claiming to have any omniscient powers.

How would you "see" business? That is, how would you know how many Bitcoins are being traded for goods and services each day? The only thing you can say is that there is at MOST X BTC exchanged for goods and services each day, with X being equal to the total value of all transactions in that day's blocks.

Trading volume has no inherent relation to monetary exchange volume.
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April 28, 2011, 08:44:24 PM
 #456

but once they lose interest and sell off, the market will be down to about dollar parity again.
I do not agree, the exchange rate may easily soar to $3 or even $5 and then level off at $2.6 or $4.4.

Selling is just too risky.
Agreed. I have got it wrong every time that I have sold, and I have ended up buying back into Bitcoin at a higher price.
Absolutely agree. I remember how I sold bitcoins for $0.4, but the exchange rate then rised to $1. Undecided

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April 28, 2011, 08:51:29 PM
 #457

Whatever you call it I wouldn't say it's a bubble.  The entire Bitcoin economy isn't even a blip on the radar yet, and while the price will likely swing wildly for a long time to come, if Bitcoin goes anywhere near mainstream these prices will be left in the dust. That said my suspicion is that this will soon attract (if it hasn't already) some professional traders that will be looking to manipulate the price down in order to accumulate.  Look for a sharp dip that cuts the price dramatically, possibly accompanied by some awful rumor or attack on Mt. Gox or something.  The weak hands will get shaken out of the market and we'll be primed for a huge rally.  Just my 2 (bit)cents.  Smiley
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April 28, 2011, 08:57:48 PM
 #458

The only thing you can say is that there is at MOST X BTC exchanged for goods and services each day, with X being equal to the total value of all transactions in that day's blocks.
Not even that. Bitcoins can change hands within wallet systems, i.e. I can send BTC to another Mt Gox account without a block chain transaction.

So goods and services trading in BTC could theoretically be higher than total value of all block chain transactions.

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April 28, 2011, 09:03:04 PM
 #459

A friend of mine coined an excellent term for the current surge:  it's a heisenbubble.

It's definitely a bubble, in the sense that people are buying based on learning about it and speculating, rather than any apparent economic surge.  However.......if someone does decide to build something truly innovative on top of BitCoin that wasn't possible before, the current value will be left in the dust.  So it's uncertain if it's truly a bubble or not.  Given the high rate of BitCoin influx from mining and the general impatience of speculators, it's mostly a matter of when exactly the breakthrough application of BitCoin arrives.

Until then.......heisenbubble.

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April 28, 2011, 09:26:17 PM
 #460

Until then.......heisenbubble.

And a carrot.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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