Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[S3052]

Happy to run an Elliott Wave analysis, but as said, I need some support donations because that will take a couple of hours of in depth work, starting from May 2010, the start of trading and running many charts.

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[epii]

@S3052
Do you consider the small surge today to still be consistent with your short-term forecast of a break downwards?  Or would you say the less likely scenario is taking place?  Or is it too early to say?

[pjwaffle]

Happy to run an Elliott Wave analysis, but as said, I need some support donations because that will take a couple of hours of in depth work, starting from May 2010, the start of trading and running many charts.

I wish I had any bitcoins... I would happily donate them to ya :/

[bitdragon]

I donated a meager 8.88 coins for such an elliott analysis-

[NOTAL]

@S3052
Do you consider the small surge today to still be consistent with your short-term forecast of a break downwards?  Or would you say the less likely scenario is taking place?  Or is it too early to say?

I still think it looks like it will break downwards. Look at the market depth, (http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html), there is not much resistance down to about 2.8, and there is a lot more asks than bids. Looks like downward pressure to me.

Of course, I don't know what I'm talking about, and even if I did, a single big buyer (or seller) could cause a huge break either way.

[epii]

@S3052
Do you consider the small surge today to still be consistent with your short-term forecast of a break downwards?  Or would you say the less likely scenario is taking place?  Or is it too early to say?

I still think it looks like it will break downwards. Look at the market depth, (http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html), there is not much resistance down to about 2.8, and there is a lot more asks than bids. Looks like downward pressure to me.

Of course, I don't know what I'm talking about, and even if I did, a single big buyer (or seller) could cause a huge break either way.

Yeah, that was my interpretation of the depth (plus, the other markets are trading significantly lower than Mt. Gox today), but I too don't know what I'm talking about. 

[S3052]

recent price pattern looks still better if BTC/USD breaks down lower.
I'd give this a 65% probability over the next 7 days.

[Current-C]

recent price pattern looks still better if BTC/USD breaks down lower.
I'd give this a 65% probability over the next 7 days.

What's your price projection for the low?

[LZ]

It seems that the exchange rate may go down this weekend.

[NOTAL]

It seems that the exchange rate may go down this weekend.

FTFY
(MtGox is down again . . . sigh. . .)

[ribuck]

Technical analysis means absolutely nothing without a liquid exchange.

[LZ]

Yes, I think so. I can not work because of these attacks.

[S3052]

Of course, if the exchange does not work, price does not work (change..)

Overall, the current situation of the exchanges including MtGox as the biggest, is far from working properly.

This can be one fundamental reason why BTC prices may go down significantly. Confidence into the exchanges must be high to attract new funds from investors.

Confidence is shaken now with all the DDOS.

Secondly, the withdrawal limit of 1000$ per day is a joke for investors. No serious investor will put hundreds of thousands of funds into an exchange if he can not take out funds within hours (max 1-3 days) to shift asset allocation quickly.

(This is no blame to people operating the exchanges. They are great entrepreneurs, do this often for free and doing a great job, but this is not enough, given the fact that 11,000 new coins are generated daily, 77,000 weekly, 335,000 monthly = 1.2 million $ at current BTC/USD rate)

[bitcool]

Curious, DDoS is nothing new, why they have such a difficult time staying up? cost of implementing the prevention method? 

[bitcool]

Curious, DDoS is nothing new, why they have such a difficult time staying up? cost of implementing the prevention method? 

EDIT: just read this thread http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=7494.0 I hope mtgox is really back for good.

[Enky1974]

.........Secondly, the withdrawal limit of 1000$ per day is a joke for investors. No serious investor will put hundreds of thousands of funds into an exchange if he can not take out funds within hours (max 1-3 days) to shift asset allocation quickly....

this issue must definitely be addressed or mtgox will remain a joke as a leading btc exchange, to go higher from here we need those kind of big investors or prices will plummet soon.

[BitterTea]

The only reason (that I'm aware) of the $1000 withdrawal limit is attempted compliance with FinCEN regulations. Without the withdrawal limit, MtGox would classify as a money transmitting business (instead of a provider of stored value) and be subject to many more financial regulations.

Either we need somebody big to enter the game, or we need an anonymous exchange of some sort, that will not operate under financial regulation. I just don't see one of these hobbyist (I mean that in the most positive way possible) exchanges going big time and subjecting itself to the complexities of US (or other state) financial law.

[S3052]

Some big order came in this afternoon, leading to a breakout to the upside above 3.65$

We may test the highs of 4.15 $.

[allinvain]

The only reason (that I'm aware) of the $1000 withdrawal limit is attempted compliance with FinCEN regulations. Without the withdrawal limit, MtGox would classify as a money transmitting business (instead of a provider of stored value) and be subject to many more financial regulations.

Either we need somebody big to enter the game, or we need an anonymous exchange of some sort, that will not operate under financial regulation. I just don't see one of these hobbyist (I mean that in the most positive way possible) exchanges going big time and subjecting itself to the complexities of US (or other state) financial law.

Why is it that mtgox has to abide by the rules of FinCEN which is a US institution! MT Gox is owned and operated in Japan from what I know, so once again what is it with this deference toward US financial authorities - you know not everything has to revolve around the US 

I for one would prefer no withdrawal or deposit limit BUT in exchange I'd be willing to accept the implementation of KYC rules (know your customer) That's a small price to pay for increased transaction freedom. This way authorities feel safer that bitcoins are not being laundred for shady purposes via these large exchanges (if they wanted to launder it they should do it person to person ie direct payments).

[ribuck]

...the withdrawal limit of 1000$ per day is a joke for investors...

MagicalTux, the owner of MtGox, has repeatedly made it clear that serious traders can make arrangements with him for a higher limit.