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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509914 times)
da2ce7
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April 30, 2011, 02:46:30 PM
 #481

Here is a special Bitcoin technical update,given the very strong, but potentially overheating trend.

Keep up the great work! Donated 5btc Smiley

One quick question, when do we know if it has clearly broken out of the price channel?  If we keep in this price channel the market really cannot move to $5 till July...

One off NP-Hard.
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coined
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April 30, 2011, 04:34:27 PM
 #482

some dude just bought everything up to $4.15 i think, he didnt read the technical analysis obviously  Wink
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April 30, 2011, 04:52:24 PM
 #483

He just will sell at $5 or higher.

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April 30, 2011, 04:54:23 PM
 #484

Jesus christ what was that?  Shocked

I apparently put a sell order at 3.4658 last night thinking that was about where the spike would go if it went above 3. Let's find out just how far off I was.

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April 30, 2011, 04:55:40 PM
 #485

some dude just bought everything up to $4.15 i think, he didnt read the technical analysis obviously  Wink
there goes the Kuwaiti dinar  Grin

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coined
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April 30, 2011, 05:02:21 PM
 #486

He just will sell at $5 or higher.

thats some good specifics right there, thanks for that info  Wink, so he will sell between $5 and ANY NUMBER ABOVE $5 AT ANY DATE!!!  Grin Grin
LMGTFY
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April 30, 2011, 05:07:06 PM
 #487

Here is a special Bitcoin technical update,given the very strong, but potentially overheating trend.

Keep up the great work! Donated 5btc Smiley

One quick question, when do we know if it has clearly broken out of the price channel?  If we keep in this price channel the market really cannot move to $5 till July...
On the hourly chart (the one S3052 was using) the price needs to close one hour above the channel. If it breaks above the channel and then falls back within the same time-period, it hasn't broken out. (So, in this case, there has been a break above the channel, as the time period - the hour - has ended with the closing price above the channel).

...at least, that's how I understand it. I hope S3052 will see me right if I'm wrong!

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proudhon
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April 30, 2011, 05:20:17 PM
 #488

Here is a special Bitcoin technical update,given the very strong, but potentially overheating trend.

Keep up the great work! Donated 5btc Smiley

One quick question, when do we know if it has clearly broken out of the price channel?  If we keep in this price channel the market really cannot move to $5 till July...
On the hourly chart (the one S3052 was using) the price needs to close one hour above the channel. If it breaks above the channel and then falls back within the same time-period, it hasn't broken out. (So, in this case, there has been a break above the channel, as the time period - the hour - has ended with the closing price above the channel).

...at least, that's how I understand it. I hope S3052 will see me right if I'm wrong!

I just want to make sure I understand things correctly.  If there's a break above the channel (that last longer than an hour), then we're in a rally, and prices will likely go quite a bit higher.  Is that right?  On the other hand, if there's a break below the lower trend line, then we'll see a prices go down significantly.  Am I getting this right?
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April 30, 2011, 05:24:41 PM
 #489

I just want to make sure I understand things correctly.  If there's a break above the channel (that last longer than an hour), then we're in a rally, and prices will likely go quite a bit higher.  Is that right?  On the other hand, if there's a break below the lower trend line, then we'll see a prices go down significantly.  Am I getting this right?
All I can comment on is what constitutes a break, but yes, that's my understanding of S3052's analysis.

Incidentally, it's not so much that the break above lasts more than hour - simply that when one time period ends the price is above it. The price could, say, go above the channel at 1 minute past the hour, then fall back below at 59 minutes past, and that wouldn't be a break. On the other hand, if the price went above at 59 minutes past - and remained there for >1 minute - then that would be a break. Again, this is just my understanding of technical analysis and I am by no means knowledgeable.

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Prze_koles
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April 30, 2011, 05:30:04 PM
 #490

This week we have pure speculation and technical analysis are badly inaccurate.

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April 30, 2011, 05:33:03 PM
 #491

Prze_koles beat me to it, lol

the fundamentals are making the technicals worthless (worth less? Tongue )

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coined
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April 30, 2011, 05:43:19 PM
 #492

moa got it right i think, were in uncharted territory here, alot of these buyers might never have even known what a bitcoin was two weeks ago, its not like a normal market in that sense. maybe the new price is normal given the new amount of people that know about it, the old growth estimate just got the increased awareness wrong?, its like finding a new packed continent on earth and the people have never heard of gold and now they want to buy... that may just mess up your projections,

or maybe not since i'm just a twit thinking out loud Cheesy
proudhon
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April 30, 2011, 05:59:44 PM
 #493

moa got it right i think, were in uncharted territory here, alot of these buyers might never have even known what a bitcoin was two weeks ago, its not like a normal market in that sense. maybe the new price is normal given the new amount of people that know about it, the old growth estimate just got the increased awareness wrong?, its like finding a new packed continent on earth and the people have never heard of gold and now they want to buy... that may just mess up your projections,

or maybe not since i'm just a twit thinking out loud Cheesy

This is kind of what I'm beginning to think is going on.  We've all just underestimated the exposure and the interest people have in bitcoin.  Interest may be increasing more than the community thought a few weeks ago, and, as a result, the population of buyers has increased sufficiently relative to the supply.  In which case, this isn't a speculative bubble.
kiba
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April 30, 2011, 06:03:04 PM
 #494

Remember, we're reaching a new norm of a thousand posts a day. That mean 30,000 posts every month.

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April 30, 2011, 07:04:41 PM
 #495

Remember, we're reaching a new norm of a thousand posts a day. That mean 30,000 posts every month.
+1  Cheesy

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S3052
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April 30, 2011, 07:12:38 PM
 #496

Here is the second Bitcoin technical update today,given the very strong, but potentially overheating trend.

Please donate here if you wish to see the Bitcoin Market Coverage continued:


1P8iS7WLx5n4ixThBRCPEPk9A3dR8bV6qt



Longterm: RALLY. We are above the channel trendline in both, normal (1.6$) and log scale (around 3$).
Shortterm: RALLY with two options how to continue in the next hours / days (see chart)
http://bit.ly/lrSHAv


Two more things:
1) Overall, thanks to the entire bitcoin community for the great discussions, even if sometimes controversial (I like that). And thanks to the donations which keep me motivated to spend my evenings and weekend outside of normal work.

2) I covered the question from da2ce7 about the channel in the update. BTC/USD is above both channels mow (normal scale 1.6$, log scale around 3$). It is crucial now to stay above. A break below will make this a BULL TRAP and give a quite negative indication.

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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marcus_of_augustus
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April 30, 2011, 09:38:41 PM
 #497

Quote
We are above the channel trendline in both, normal (1.6$) and log scale (around 3$).


We've gone super-exponential .... seller's strike continues, the question is at what price do the big seller's come out of the woodwork? Those guys have mined the first 2.5 million coins for example.

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April 30, 2011, 09:48:41 PM
 #498

We've gone super-exponential .... seller's strike continues, the question is at what price do the big seller's come out of the woodwork? Those guys have mined the first 2.5 million coins for example.
They're not going to buy dollars. They're going to buy a heroic amount of shrooms. The dealers will hold on to much of those bitcoins because the raw materials for shroom production are cheap. Therefore they'll sell the bitcoins slowly on an as needed basis.

Use my Trade Hill referral code: TH-R11519

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April 30, 2011, 10:02:47 PM
 #499

ah the mysterious first generation miners, are they over the moon with joy today? or are some of them on suicide watch after the recent rally's since they sold 500k BTC for a pencil...
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May 01, 2011, 04:41:15 AM
 #500

It should be interesting to see how investors react to MTGOX being down for three days. Apparently they will be back up by Monday, but it still doesn't look good. Plus coinpal going down indefinitely around the same time sucks as well.

 My guess is that we will have several days of fear selling followed by a strong rally back up. I sold all of my BTC onto #bitcoin-otc for around $3.50 per BTC just now...I plan to use those profits to buy back into the market at a lower price.
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