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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 503756 times)
dserrano5
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July 07, 2011, 09:38:25 PM
 #1001

I voted "same as now", meaning "between 10 and 17". I think the $10 level needs to be tested again to either lose it or form a double low.

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S3052
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July 07, 2011, 10:27:36 PM
 #1002

So far we're seeing a continuation of yesterdays rally, although its not on as big of volume as yesterdays but it still credible. The $16.5-$17 level still proves to a key resistance level.
true.
we may see a rally to higher levels again


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cloon
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July 08, 2011, 05:35:37 AM
 #1003

So far we're seeing a continuation of yesterdays rally, although its not on as big of volume as yesterdays but it still credible. The $16.5-$17 level still proves to a key resistance level.
true.
we may see a rally to higher levels again



I think shortterm it'll go down (if everyone gets crazy around 10$) until monday/tuesday, then go up again and continue maintrend
right?

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MKW2012
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July 08, 2011, 02:49:39 PM
 #1004

So far we're seeing a continuation of yesterdays rally, although its not on as big of volume as yesterdays but it still credible. The $16.5-$17 level still proves to a key resistance level.
true.
we may see a rally to higher levels again



I think shortterm it'll go down (if everyone gets crazy around 10$) until monday/tuesday, then go up again and continue maintrend
right?

Yeah it looks like are our rally was short lived. I'll be waiting to see how far the weekend bears can push it lower and hopefully getting in around Tuesdays intra-day low if it holds as support. 
StewartJ
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July 08, 2011, 03:36:37 PM
 #1005

The way the prices have fluctuated in light of the last 5 days, I see this as an "Intraday" trading market, trading around the big low for the week, and then selling at the end of the rally a day or two later, IHMO.

Thoughts on this?

SJ
NOTAL
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July 08, 2011, 03:47:52 PM
 #1006

I voted "same as now", meaning "between 10 and 17". I think the $10 level needs to be tested again to either lose it or form a double low.

I think the $10 level has proven to have some strong support. It's already made a double low, June 12th and July 5th (ignoring the whole hacking incident/flash crash which I don't think we can call a real price). I was really glad to see $10 tested again on the 5th and hold. Since the rally up from $10 has lost steam, I tend to agree that we'll probably see fluctuations in the "10 to17" range.
MKW2012
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July 08, 2011, 04:26:56 PM
 #1007

The way the prices have fluctuated in light of the last 5 days, I see this as an "Intraday" trading market, trading around the big low for the week, and then selling at the end of the rally a day or two later, IHMO.

Thoughts on this?

SJ

I couldn't agree more. The volatility lately has made it a day trader heaven. Tuesdays intra-day low is the line in the sand for now, but even if it breaks $10 is not far from it which holds as a psychological support level. IMO
StewartJ
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July 08, 2011, 06:07:38 PM
 #1008

The way the prices have fluctuated in light of the last 5 days, I see this as an "Intraday" trading market, trading around the big low for the week, and then selling at the end of the rally a day or two later, IHMO.

Thoughts on this?

SJ

I couldn't agree more. The volatility lately has made it a day trader heaven. Tuesdays intra-day low is the line in the sand for now, but even if it breaks $10 is not far from it which holds as a psychological support level. IMO


Thanks for validating.

I had it in my mind originally that I would be watching and trading hour to hour with this stuff.

But the chart data patterns point to more profitable ventures with more long-term trades throughout the week, i.e getting in on the weekly low, then selling for profit that day or the next... and then repeat.

Will be interesting to see what patterns emerge for the Weekend and Next Week.


SJ
dserrano5
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July 08, 2011, 06:50:40 PM
 #1009

I voted "same as now", meaning "between 10 and 17". I think the $10 level needs to be tested again to either lose it or form a double low.

I think the $10 level has proven to have some strong support. It's already made a double low, June 12th and July 5th (ignoring the whole hacking incident/flash crash which I don't think we can call a real price). I was really glad to see $10 tested again on the 5th and hold. Since the rally up from $10 has lost steam, I tend to agree that we'll probably see fluctuations in the "10 to17" range.

I half agree with you. While it may already have tested the $10 twice, I personally believe that the crash has substantially changed the rules of the game, and would love to see that level being checked again, for the second second (sic) time.

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July 08, 2011, 11:19:03 PM
 #1010

The way the prices have fluctuated in light of the last 5 days, I see this as an "Intraday" trading market, trading around the big low for the week, and then selling at the end of the rally a day or two later, IHMO.

Thoughts on this?

SJ

I couldn't agree more. The volatility lately has made it a day trader heaven. Tuesdays intra-day low is the line in the sand for now, but even if it breaks $10 is not far from it which holds as a psychological support level. IMO


Thanks for validating.

I had it in my mind originally that I would be watching and trading hour to hour with this stuff.

But the chart data patterns point to more profitable ventures with more long-term trades throughout the week, i.e getting in on the weekly low, then selling for profit that day or the next... and then repeat.

Will be interesting to see what patterns emerge for the Weekend and Next Week.


SJ


Volatility -> profit -> stability Smiley
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July 09, 2011, 11:48:51 AM
 #1011

as with many too obvious things and indicators, the weekend dip does not appear to happen. This may causse some buying rush when people realize that they can't get coins cheaper. It I'd always dangerous to look at 1 single indicator

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proudhon
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July 09, 2011, 12:11:34 PM
 #1012

as with many too obvious things and indicators, the weekend dip does not appear to happen. This may causse some buying rush when people realize that they can't get coins cheaper. It I'd always dangerous to look at 1 single indicator

The "weekend" is young.  It seems like the big "weekend" selloffs have been happening later (i.e. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday).
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July 09, 2011, 04:15:46 PM
 #1013

as with many too obvious things and indicators, the weekend dip does not appear to happen. This may causse some buying rush when people realize that they can't get coins cheaper. It I'd always dangerous to look at 1 single indicator

The "weekend" is young.  It seems like the big "weekend" selloffs have been happening later (i.e. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday).

That may be a function of more traders getting a better idea of what their liquidity levels need to be for the weekend.

Sorry for not being clearer before (my mobile device is crap):

The weekend dip is a myth. Just because we have seen some weekend weakness for a couple of times does not make a good indicator.

More important is the summary of many technical aspects and then build a consolidated picture using many tools. Just using one tool will severely punish those people focusing too much on this one thing.

Because even if it works a couple of times, the next time this tool will fail and people sticking too rigidly to it will be washed out of the market.

Technical analysis is an art, not a computer program. (this should not sound arrogant, I am not saying I am a perfect analyst, but I have experienced many of these issues a decade ago when I started).

Just forget about the weekend effect in bitcoins (or at least use it in conjunction with other analyses).

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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StewartJ
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July 09, 2011, 04:18:30 PM
 #1014

as with many too obvious things and indicators, the weekend dip does not appear to happen. This may causse some buying rush when people realize that they can't get coins cheaper. It I'd always dangerous to look at 1 single indicator

The "weekend" is young.  It seems like the big "weekend" selloffs have been happening later (i.e. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday).

That may be a function of more traders getting a better idea of what their liquidity levels need to be for the weekend.


The Saturday chart indicates not much in the way of trading activity...

Trading at $14.20 all morning, with a couple of 20 cents upward spikes and then the predictable smack-downs, now were at $14.46.

May I ask, is this pretty much going to par for the course with BTC weekend trading?

SJ

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July 09, 2011, 04:21:16 PM
 #1015

This depends on trader psychology. But as mentioned in my subscription service. We are seeing a short term bullish formation with a breakout of a bullish flag. I expect this to happen in the next 24-48 hours.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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chuckypalumbo
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July 09, 2011, 04:27:10 PM
 #1016

as with many too obvious things and indicators, the weekend dip does not appear to happen. This may causse some buying rush when people realize that they can't get coins cheaper. It I'd always dangerous to look at 1 single indicator

The "weekend" is young.  It seems like the big "weekend" selloffs have been happening later (i.e. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday).

That may be a function of more traders getting a better idea of what their liquidity levels need to be for the weekend.


The Saturday chart indicates not much in the way of trading activity...

Trading at $14.20 all morning, with a couple of 20 cents upward spikes and then the predictable smack-downs, now were at $14.46.

May I ask, is this pretty much going to par for the course with BTC weekend trading?

SJ



It's summer, it's the weekend, people are out doing things with their family or friends. I'd say it's gonna be par for the course.

If you're looking to sign up for an exchange try Bitcoin7 or Tradehill, referral codes are listed below. Sign up for Tradehill and get 10% off of every trade you ever make.

https://www.bitcoin7.com/?ref=6383

http://www.tradehill.com/?r=TH-R15532
StewartJ
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July 09, 2011, 04:30:03 PM
 #1017

This depends on trader psychology. But as mentioned in my subscription service. We are seeing a short term bullish formation with a breakout of a bullish flag. I expect this to happen in the next 24-48 hours.

Interesting analysis.  

Based on recent history I am anticipating a Monday or Tuesday $2-$3 sell-off.  Or maybe I am wishing for a sell off?   Smiley  

I am going to be watching this closely and see how it pans out.

S.
datguywhowanders
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July 09, 2011, 06:56:01 PM
 #1018

This depends on trader psychology. But as mentioned in my subscription service. We are seeing a short term bullish formation with a breakout of a bullish flag. I expect this to happen in the next 24-48 hours.

Two questions for you.

1) Is your subscription service free?

2) You seem knowledgeable about this sort of stuff. What would you recommend reading as an introduction to the sort of analysis you do? I don't have a strong background in either economics or trading, but I'd like to learn.

Donations Welcome: 163id7T8KZ6MevqT86DjrBF2kfCPrQsfZE
czz
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July 09, 2011, 09:26:09 PM
 #1019

How do I subscribe to your service?

Bitcoin address: 1GAEheqiqsMz2oTpnzMV5A4PLzyDWgXPDf
MKW2012
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July 10, 2011, 04:32:11 AM
 #1020

Not much action today with extremely low volume. We'll probably see the same type of action tomorrow, I'll be waiting to see what early Monday brings before taking an action.   
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