Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[S3052]

Hourly chart posted.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=264527

Bitcoin Forecast and Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Looks like another triangle is forming in the hourly chart since early Sunday (Nov 7) (BTC seems to like triangles). Breakout on the upside will enable a short term target of 0.6 - 0.8, before the parity can be reached in the more medium term (days).

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[S3052]

BTC/RUB is showing a very strong rally as well.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4153225&posted=1#post4153225

Soon, one BTC will buy one bottle of Vodka :-)

[S3052]

I think the largest is ForexFactory.com, and another I've used is babypips.com

Thanks for the great tip. Within 12 hours, we have 400 views and a couple of comments from the ForexFactory community (and probably some of this forum who I pulled to ForexFactory :-)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=264527

[S3052]

New short term update posted.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4154993#post4154993

[brocktice]

OneFixt is now claiming in IRC the opposite of your analysis. I'm curious to see the outcome.

[S3052]

great to get competition.

Can you share what his bitcoin forecast and bitcoin analysis is or how I can view it?

[S3052]

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4156088&posted=1#post4156088

[brocktice]

Here's some IRC log, prior to this he claimed it would be a good idea to sell now. I've also cleaned it up and corrected a numerical error he later corrected.

Code:

14:19 < OneFixt> Firstly, what I did not know this morning but what is apparent now, is that MtG is allowing withdrawals.
14:19 < OneFixt> That lone is enough to give us a deep correction.
14:19 < OneFixt> alone*
14:23 < OneFixt> There has been divergence in OBV (on balance volume), price has been going up based on the actions of few players rather than market sentiment, 
we are at the end of a 3rd Elliott Wave and about to have a major correction, supply to the tune of half a million coins has entered the market, sentiment 
is 100% bullish meaning that people have already bought and nobody is left to keep driving
14:23 < OneFixt> up the price, bot and large player trading patterns which have pushed the price up in the past have failed to move the market recently.
14:24 < OneFixt> Things like that.
14:26 < OneFixt> I will be _wrong_ if a) ask volume disappears (possibly because of my stirring up the waters)  or b) $50k USD is spent in one huge transaction.

[brocktice]

By the way, what options are you using on the charting site to get those bubble-looking shaded areas?

[tcatm]

By the way, what options are you using on the charting site to get those bubble-looking shaded areas?

Select a "Price Band"

[S3052]

I am using bollinger bands as part of many tools to derive bitcoin forecasts and bitcoin technical analysis.

And to be clear, prices can break out of the triangle in both directions.

If prices break 0.3 significantly to the downside, we enter a correction that has strong targets of 0.17, and then the channel trendline around 0.13 (as I highlighted in my previous updates)

And, my colleague at IRC is right, to get a significant breakout, new buyers need to come in and spend approx. $50k.

[brocktice]

Thanks for the clarification!

[S3052]

As promised, here tonight's bitcoin forecast and bitcoin technical analysis.

The overall picture of a rally does not change at all, despite today’s volatility and crash type decline over the last hours.
BTC is in its early stages and with low overall volumes, volatility is high. The more BTC grows in terms of people/businesses using/accepting them, the lower volatility will get.


Analysis Nov 2 (48h chart attached)
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows.
I am raising support level to 0.10-0.13 $ based on the longterm lograrithmic uptrend line (as posted a while ago). As long as prices do not close below this level, we are in an uptrend.
If this level is broken, a deeper correction to the 0.06 level is then possible.
Strong longterm upside targets are 0.50 $ and parity 1.00 $.

2. Short term update
Prices consolidated in a triangle over past 48hrs before breaking down. Based on triangle analysis, price target for this corrective wave is 0.3 (triangle base) - [0.5 (high) - 0.3 (triangle base)] = about 0.10$ which fits nicely with the above mentioned channel up-sloping trend line.
There will be small bounces on the way down. Small bounce levels are 0.25, 0.20, 0.17, 0.13. I expect the target of 0.10-0.13 to be hit in the next 1-3 days.
Only a rise above 0.30 (hourly close) will make BTC continue the rally short term.

[mpkomara]

mtgox just pooped on your triangles and bollinger bands. 

[OneFixt]

What mpkomara meant to say was that correctly pinpointing areas of consolidation does not necessarily allow us to predict the direction or timing of the next breakout - and he's absolutely correct. 

Trendlines, channels, and triangles are invaluable in helping us to sort the market into highly probable areas of support and resistance, but they alone cannot tell us whether the support/resistance will hold and for how long.  We can only have one piece of the puzzle at a time, the answer to either "Where?" or "When?".

Today we had the answer to "When?", and the answer was "Now!" as we consolidated near the critical price of .309 (the .618 - golden ratio - level between 0 and all-time high of .5), but many people assumed that we also had the answer to "Where?", they assumed that answer was "Up!".

In reality, we had two equally probable answers of "Up!" and "Down!", and to choose one over the other required real-time analysis of money flow, public sentiment, automated trading patterns, and the intensifying battles among BTCs most active and influential traders and investors across the exchanges.

This definitive answer to "Where?" - being "Down!" - is what I called out today, at first privately and then publicly in IRC, after taking into account these many real-time factors. 

So today's action on MtGox did not at all invalidate S3052's "triangles" - they have been and still are giving us an accurate and professional assessment of potential targets and areas of support and resistance, as well as letting us know when to expect a breakout.  Just remember that you need to add timing to price direction and price direction to timing, or you might end up buying for the long-term only to lose 50% of your investment to a short-term correction.

[S3052]

couldn't agree more with you, and that is why I am adding polls here to understand sentiment, and incorporating volume reads, money flows, and other indicators , the order book, elliott waves, etc.
when I saw the order book, it was very clear that the most probable direction for the bitcoin forecast was not up in the short term.

[sturle]

couldn't agree more with you, and that is why I am adding polls here to understand sentiment, and incorporating volume reads, money flows, and other indicators , the order book, elliott waves, etc.
when I saw the order book, it was very clear that the most probable direction was not up in the short term.

Looking at the order book with my untrained eyes, I see a lot of resistance against a price level above about 0.325, and free fall below a small resistance at 0.3 on the downside.  I can't see the bottom.  Current price is approx 0.312/0.323.  I'll be surprised if it doesn't fall soon, and far deeper this time, and I don't need any special waves or triangles to predict this.  I could be wrong, of course..

I wonder what the point is with all those orders of 1000 or 800 spread 0.00001 USD apart.  Is it supposed to hide the orders from the graph, or something?  The orders certainly lighten up the list right below the graph.

[Timo Y]

Looking at the order book with my untrained eyes, I see a lot of resistance against a price level above about 0.325, and free fall below a small resistance at 0.3 on the downside.  I can't see the bottom. 

Don't trust the order book.

At mtgox it doesn't cost anything to make an order a safe distance away from the last price and to withdraw it as soon as the market moves, so it's reasonable to assume some people are trying to manipulate the market in this way.

Also, it's reasonable to assume that traders wanting to sell/buy large quantities will want to keep this information secret for as long as possible, so they are not going to make a huge order all at once.

[FreeMoney]

Looking at the order book with my untrained eyes, I see a lot of resistance against a price level above about 0.325, and free fall below a small resistance at 0.3 on the downside.  I can't see the bottom. 

Don't trust the order book.

At mtgox it doesn't cost anything to make an order a safe distance away from the last price and to withdraw it as soon as the market moves, so it's reasonable to assume some people are trying to manipulate the market in this way.

Also, it's reasonable to assume that traders wanting to sell/buy large quantities will want to keep this information secret for as long as possible, so they are not going to make a huge order all at once.

True, but you do have to have the coins on site, so they do represent unneeded coins. And there is the risk that someone will just buy a huge amount in one click and you won't escape the sale. Plus I haven't noticed big phantom orders disappearing.

I'm not saying to trust the order book as a great predictor though, it is easy to drop orders in on market moves and we don't know where those will be.

[sturle]

I'm not saying to trust the order book as a great predictor though, it is easy to drop orders in on market moves and we don't know where those will be.

It isn't perfect, and sometimes people dumps loads of USD or BTC which moves the market more than it is possible to predict.  Large blockers of 10k or more are rarely sold out in one large movement.  When there is one just above current market price, and none below, the market can only move quickly in one direction.  Turned out I was right this time.  The price dropped all the way from 0.32 to 0.2 in minutes.  It may happen again.  Upwards resistance is strong from about 0.295.  I can't see any blockers downwards.