Bitcoin Forum
September 28, 2016, 06:48:12 PM *
News: Due to DDoS attacks, there may be periodic downtime.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Poll
Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 [26] 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 ... 157 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 504047 times)
Alex Beckenham
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 154


View Profile
May 01, 2011, 05:32:56 AM
 #501

I sold all of my BTC onto #bitcoin-otc for around $3.50 per BTC just now...I plan to use those profits to buy back into the market at a lower price.

You mean $3.49?

Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1475088492
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1475088492

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1475088492
Reply with quote  #2

1475088492
Report to moderator
da2ce7
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1217


Live and Let Live


View Profile
May 01, 2011, 06:05:14 AM
 #502

I sold all of my BTC onto #bitcoin-otc for around $3.50 per BTC just now...I plan to use those profits to buy back into the market at a lower price.

I would never sell all my Bitcoin in speculation...

One off NP-Hard.
error
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 574



View Profile
May 01, 2011, 09:28:01 AM
 #503

It should be interesting to see how investors react to MTGOX being down for three days. Apparently they will be back up by Monday, but it still doesn't look good. Plus coinpal going down indefinitely around the same time sucks as well.

 My guess is that we will have several days of fear selling followed by a strong rally back up. I sold all of my BTC onto #bitcoin-otc for around $3.50 per BTC just now...I plan to use those profits to buy back into the market at a lower price.

I don't believe a word of this.

If you really did sell, you just lost a ton of money.

15UFyv6kfWgq83Pp3yhXPr8rknv9m6581W
LZ
Staff
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470


Satoshi everywhere!


View Profile WWW
May 01, 2011, 11:14:44 AM
 #504

If you really did sell, you just lost a ton of money.
Yes, because weekends can not reflect the real situation as workweeks.

ah the mysterious first generation miners, are they over the moon with joy today?
They deserve it because they had more risks wasting time and money.

"Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment." © S3052
da2ce7
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1217


Live and Let Live


View Profile
May 01, 2011, 11:28:53 AM
 #505

BTC/USD is above both channels mow (normal scale 1.6$, log scale around 3$). It is crucial now to stay above. A break below will make this a BULL TRAP and give a quite negative indication.

So it is important that Bitcoin doesn't break $3, $1.6.  That is a very large range.  So now we should see resistance at the upper line of the price channel?

One off NP-Hard.
bitcoinBull
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 826


rippleFanatic


View Profile
May 01, 2011, 11:53:01 AM
 #506

This week we have pure speculation and technical analysis are badly inaccurate.

The cost of mining is what makes up the fundamentals, which is the third component of three things taught to evaluate in trading: fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment.

Recently the price has tripled, but network difficulty (the cost of mining) has not kept up.

I'm calling a top.  It now makes more sense to invest in a mining rig (see Attack of the miners: http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6836.0;all) than to buy bitcoins at the current price.

I think the price will correct until it approaches an equilibrium with the difficulty factor.

College of Bucking Bulls Knowledge
S3052
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1932


BTC Up or Down? go to www.bullbearanalytics.com


View Profile WWW
May 01, 2011, 12:19:32 PM
 #507

BTC/USD is above both channels mow (normal scale 1.6$, log scale around 3$). It is crucial now to stay above. A break below will make this a BULL TRAP and give a quite negative indication.

So it is important that Bitcoin doesn't break $3, $1.6.  That is a very large range.  So now we should see resistance at the upper line of the price channel?

Yes, that is correct. Resistance / support is the upper trendline of the price channel.

It is true that at this stage, we cannot know for certain which channel line the market thinks is more important. The log scale around 3$ +-0.15 or the nominal trend line around 1.6 $.

I will run a deeper analysis on Monday, trying to shed some light on this.

In the meanwhile, it is evident that prices turned down from the parabolic rise. In a way, BTC/USD may have entered a similar path like Silver. Silver will likely crash down hard once the parabolic rise is over. Either from current levels around 48$, or after another rise into the 55-60$ area.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
Current-C
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 124



View Profile
May 01, 2011, 04:10:00 PM
 #508

Quote
That said my suspicion is that this will soon attract (if it hasn't already) some professional traders that will be looking to manipulate the price down in order to accumulate.  Look for a sharp dip that cuts the price dramatically, possibly accompanied by some awful rumor or attack on Mt. Gox or something.

This could turn out to be a heck of a call if this sell-off continues.    Grin
Cheeseman
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 23


View Profile
May 01, 2011, 04:51:28 PM
 #509

I sold all of my BTC onto #bitcoin-otc for around $3.50 per BTC just now...I plan to use those profits to buy back into the market at a lower price.

I would never sell all my Bitcoin in speculation...
I would never turn down a quick profit in speculation Wink

Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.
LMGTFY
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 644



View Profile
May 02, 2011, 10:51:13 AM
 #510

I sold all of my BTC onto #bitcoin-otc for around $3.50 per BTC just now...I plan to use those profits to buy back into the market at a lower price.

I would never sell all my Bitcoin in speculation...
I would never turn down a quick profit in speculation Wink

Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.
I wouldn't turn down the chance of a quick profit speculating either, but I wouldn't risk all my bitcoins. Recently (though it seems so long ago now...) I sold around 10% of my bitcoins at 1.95, and bought back around 1.7. I wouldn't have risked 100% of my bitcoins, though - that's how to get slaughtered!

That said, I guess you've proved your point - you can currently buy back in at a healthy profit :-)

This space intentionally left blank.
S3052
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1932


BTC Up or Down? go to www.bullbearanalytics.com


View Profile WWW
May 02, 2011, 08:35:00 PM
 #511

And again I have reset the market sentiment poll.


Up?
Same as now?
Down?
I don't know?

click on the poll above

Please VOTE

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
LZ
Staff
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470


Satoshi everywhere!


View Profile WWW
May 02, 2011, 08:47:20 PM
 #512

S3052, what you think about the current situation? It seems that DDoS affects the market.

"Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment." © S3052
S3052
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1932


BTC Up or Down? go to www.bullbearanalytics.com


View Profile WWW
May 02, 2011, 09:52:59 PM
 #513

Here we go:

The link to the update and yes, the uncertainty around MtGox may trigger profit taking.

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/05/bitcoin-market-analysis-may-2nd-2011-by-s3052/

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
pjwaffle
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 111


View Profile
May 02, 2011, 10:00:09 PM
 #514

Here we go:

The link to the update and yes, the uncertainty around MtGox may trigger profit taking.

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/05/bitcoin-market-analysis-may-2nd-2011-by-s3052/

I have a question, you seemed to use the elliott wave principle on one of your charts (charts.ly)... Why are they not applicable to bitcoins?
S3052
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1932


BTC Up or Down? go to www.bullbearanalytics.com


View Profile WWW
May 02, 2011, 10:13:41 PM
 #515

They are applicable as BTC is from a technical standpoint not different from other markets. At the same time, BTC/USD price pattern history is still young and it is always open to various interpretations as to in which wave we are currently. We can easily count different scenarios: (i) We are in a 3rd wave up, which implies a further continuation. (ii) we are in the last 5th wave up with one more high before the end of that wave, (iii) Or we have completed the last 5th wave already at the last high and will soon see the longest correction since the start of trading, or (iv)...
This all depends on whether we include the bitcoinmarket trading before MtGox started or not.. You see, it is quite complex at this stage.

I can issue a more in depth Elliott Wave analysis if there is enough interest in the community and some people want to donate some coins, as this will require at least 3 hours which is difficult for me. (I need to add volume, sentiment measures, other indicators on top of Elliott to most accurately determine in which wave we are and narrow down the scenarios - and most importantly, come up with a favorite scenario).

Just let me know.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
pjwaffle
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 111


View Profile
May 02, 2011, 10:15:33 PM
 #516

They are applicable as BTC is from a technical standpoint not different from other markets. At the same time, BTC/USD price pattern history is still young and it is always open to various interpretations as to in which wave we are currently. We can easily count different scenarios: (i) We are in a 3rd wave up, which implies a further continuation. (ii) we are in the last 5th wave up with one more high before the end of that wave, (iii) Or we have completed the last 5th wave already at the last high and will soon see the longest correction since the start of trading, or (iv)...
This all depends on whether we include the bitcoinmarket trading before MtGox started or not.. You see, it is quite complex at this stage.

I can issue a more in depth Elliott Wave analysis if there is enough interest in the community and some people want to donate some coins, as this will require at least 3 hours which is difficult for me. (I need to add volume, sentiment measures, other indicators on top of Elliott to most accurately determine in which wave we are and narrow down the scenarios - and most importantly, come up with a favorite scenario).

Just let me know.

Alright, I agree with the price history being a bit small, I was just curious!

I did by the way, send you an email with my evaluations of the USD/CHF pair.

(I'm afraid I didn't include an elliott wave analysis Sad )
LZ
Staff
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470


Satoshi everywhere!


View Profile WWW
May 03, 2011, 03:12:02 PM
 #517


"Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment." © S3052
ribuck
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 826


View Profile
May 03, 2011, 03:15:27 PM
 #518

I was expecting a price drop at MtGox because of a loss of confidence due to the extended outage. To my surprise, MtGox re-opened with similar pricing to when it closed. I take that as a bullish indicator.
LZ
Staff
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470


Satoshi everywhere!


View Profile WWW
May 03, 2011, 03:51:15 PM
 #519

I do not think that it could drop too low.

"Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment." © S3052
proudhon
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1148



View Profile
May 03, 2011, 05:09:40 PM
 #520

I was expecting a price drop at MtGox because of a loss of confidence due to the extended outage. To my surprise, MtGox re-opened with similar pricing to when it closed. I take that as a bullish indicator.

I think most of the people trading at MtGox understand the circumstances of the outages and their understanding of the circumstances mitigates their potential loss of confidence.  For better or worse, MtGox is getting entrenched, and something really nice is going to have to come along to disrupt that.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 [26] 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 ... 157 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!