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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509535 times)
caveden
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January 03, 2011, 08:12:53 AM
 #181

People gotta lose this "backed" mentality imo. Gold is not backed, it IS gold. Bitcoin is not backed, it IS bitcoin. And bitcoin has a higher value density Smiley

+1

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BitterTea
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January 04, 2011, 10:55:43 AM
 #182

S3052, would it be possible to break down these analyses/charts for someone without specific knowledge in this area, or at least provide a link to some information that would help me to understand them?

Thanks.
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January 04, 2011, 12:04:07 PM
 #183

Certainly. Let me quickly respond, giving you a couple of links.

1) For an overview of almost all common technical analysis methods, I recommend the book:
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications (New York Institute of Finance)

http://www.amazon.com/Technical-Analysis-Financial-Markets-Comprehensive/dp/0735200661/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1294141681&sr=1-1

When you search more about technical analysis on google, I am sure you find more.
i.e.
http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/



2) For Elliott Wave analysis, see elliottwave.com
I recommend the book:
http://www.elliottwave.com/books/ewp/default.aspx?code=WPMS&articleid=0


In one of my next analysis , I will try to explain a bit more. At the same time, please recognize that I do this on top of a 12h / 5d job for free (except some donations). Although I would like to do more, I physically can't do it unless someone enables me to not need sleep any more...

>15years analysis experience

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BitterTea
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January 04, 2011, 12:15:16 PM
 #184

Although I would like to do more, I physically can't do it unless someone enables me to not need sleep any more...
BitSleep, the new distributed sleep currency, coming soon!

Thanks for the information, I will look into it and look forward to your further analysis. I appreciate what you're doing!
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January 04, 2011, 01:59:26 PM
 #185


BitSleep, the new distributed sleep currency, coming soon!


LOVE IT :-)

I'd buy bitsleep in bulk.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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January 05, 2011, 11:58:28 PM
 #186

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.
Please donate some BTCs to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

Today is an abbreviated analysis as I am working on a hot bitcoin related project as well..

Overall, the rally is fully intact.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bcmPPUSD#vzcvztgSzm1g10zm2g25

Prices consolidate in a bullish flag on a very high level. The low volume over the past days is actually a bullish sign.
This makes the breakout above 0.30 $ the most likely scenario.
Tonight I am posting a chart from bitcoinmarket as this is very interesting (thanks again to bitcoincharts.com for the great charting tool): You see that we are very close to a new all time high, as prices did not fluctuate as much as on MtGox on this very low volume, insignificant peak at 0.50 $. (Still, MtGox remains the biggest exchange in terms of volume and showing the most variety of fund additions.)
We are only 0.04 $ away from a new all time high there.

Have a great BITday.
Next update Friday, Jan 7th.
Your S3052

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brocktice
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January 06, 2011, 02:21:28 PM
 #187

Tonight I am posting a chart from bitcoinmarket as this is very interesting (thanks again to bitcoincharts.com for the great charting tool): You see that we are very close to a new all time high, as prices did not fluctuate as much as on MtGox on this very low volume, insignificant peak at 0.50 $. (Still, MtGox remains the biggest exchange in terms of volume and showing the most variety of fund additions.)
We are only 0.04 $ away from a new all time high there.

Hi, thanks for the update. I'm a little confused about this. If the price is currently between 0.29 and 0.3, how are we 0.04 away from a new all time high? 0.3 + 0.04 = 0.34, not 0.5. I'm sure I'm just missing something relating to volume here, but I can't make it out from what you wrote.

http://media.witcoin.com/p/1608/8----This-is-nuts

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January 06, 2011, 02:45:32 PM
 #188

I was specifically referring to bitcoinmarket.com price developments.

When clicking on the link I shared last night, (again posted below), you will realize that the all time high on bitcoinmarket.com was not 0.5 but 0.35.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bcmPPUSD#vzcvztgSzm1g10zm2g25

To be 100% honest, the 0.50 high on MtGox was in my experience a "fake high" as 1 or max 2 traders pushed it up with ridiculously low volumes.
That's why I always look at the bigger picture including other exchanges. In this case, I strongly believe that the 0.35 $ high is more important that the 0.50 $ high on MtGox.

The consequence would be that once 0.35 $ will be cleared, the market could easily break 0.50 $ in some point. My view is confirmed if you look into the order book at all exchanges which is very thin beyond 0.35$.

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html





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January 07, 2011, 09:02:34 PM
 #189

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.
Please donate some BTCs to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

charts and full analysis here:

http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=167


Today is very simple for me. See below what I have forecasted on Jan 5th: "Overall, the rally is fully intact.
Prices consolidate in a bullish flag on a very high level. The low volume over the past days is actually a bullish sign.
This makes the breakout above 0.30 $ the most likely scenario."
This exactly happened in the past 24hours.

Analysis
1. Long term outlook
The longterm rally is intact. We are in an almost textbook-type rally. Prices are on their way towards 0.35 $ (stronger resistance) and then 0.50 $ (all time high) and Parity 1.00 $. Upside almost seems unlimited if markets continue to be that strong and further funds will be inflowing. I will update on price targets when we get beyond the 0.50 $ high. We are currently in a third of a third wave up which typically surprise on the upside, and in turn it is dangerous to bet on the downside.
MACD indicators and 13day exponential moving average confirm the rally.


2. Short term update

Forecast also fully on track on a short term basis. See how evident the 0.30$ resistance was. Prices were rejected multiple times over the past 10 days and today broke out up to 0.32$ in high volume (12,286 $).

Prices will likely move towards 0.35 $now that 0.30 $ is taken out. Expect this 0.35$ resistance to be minor.


Next regular update Monday, Jan 10th.

Your S3052




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January 10, 2011, 10:34:20 PM
 #190

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.

Please donate to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

In a nutshell, we continue to be in a strong bitcoin rally. The key message today is "IT ONLY TAKES $ 11k to PARITY", of course with the caveat that this is based on the visible order book at MtGox only, assuming that it stays like that and that there are no big dark pools.

In any case, we have seen declines of selling orders below 0.40 $ from 100,000 bitcoins 3 weeks ago down to only 25,000.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
The longterm rally is intact. We are in an almost textbook-type rally. Prices are on their way towards 0.35 $. The all time high at 0.50 $ (only at MtGox) does not pose a significant resistance as explained in one of the last updates. Key next target is Parity 1.00 $. But even this resistance is only psychological. Technically, we may see rallies up to 1.3-1.5 in the near term (resembling the upper side of a parallel trendchannel, as highlighted in one of the previous analysis).
Both, MACD indicator and 13 day moving average point upwards. Bollinger band channel is also rising.


Further evidence of the rally is that BTC have already made a new all time high of 0.40 $/BTC at bitcoinmarket.


2. Short term update

Forecast also fully on track on a short term basis. No change vs. last update, the volume trend remains healthy. Significant volume almost exclusively happend on the upside which is bullish.

Short term resistance is 0.30 $, next target 0.35 $. Once this level is takken out, the rally is likely to accelerate (see order book). Surprises continue to be more likely on the upside.

charts on http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=172

Next update Wednesday, Jan 12th.

Your S3052

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jimbobway
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January 11, 2011, 06:49:57 AM
 #191

very nice!

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S3052
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January 12, 2011, 09:47:09 PM
 #192

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update. Of note, I literally have 25mins tonight left, but I wanted to stick to my promise, especially also given what happened today on BTC/USD.
Please donate to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

In a nutshell, the forecast is well on track and we continue to be in a strong bitcoin rally. Today we saw another huge accumulation day, with almost 10,000 USD buying volume to the upside, making another high at just under 0.36 $.
Analysis


1. Long term outlook
The longterm rally is intact. This is what I said on Monday: "We are in an almost textbook-type rally. Prices are on their way towards 0.35 $"... and today it happened. The all time high at 0.50 $ (only at MtGox) can be reached fast and does not pose a significant resistance. Key next target is Parity 1.00 $. But even this resistance is only psychological. Technically, we may see rallies up to 1.3-1.5 in the near term (resembling the upper side of a parallel trendchannel, as highlighted in one of the previous analysis).


2. Short term update

Forecast also fully on track on a short term basis. No change vs. last update, the volume trend remains healthy. Significant volume almost exclusively happend on the upside which is bullish.

Now that 0.36 $ has been reached, the rally is likely to accelerate (see order book). Surprises continue to be more likely on the upside.

When looking at the hourly chart http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=179,you clearly see the huge buying volume on the upside. The small corrections to the downside are always only mini-volumes, potentially driven by some traders who are trying to keep prices down as they may not be invested enough.


Next update Friday, Jan 14th.

Your S3052

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January 14, 2011, 08:39:02 PM
 #193

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.
Please donate to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

We continue to be in a strong bitcoin rally, as explained in past analyses. As you can see, the analyses remain very consistent, so don't be disappointed if I use similar expressions all over again (I am a technical market analyst, no poet). Today we saw yet another strong accumulation day, with 10,543 USD volume mostly on the upside. At the time this is pubslished, BTC / USD are making a new all time closing high at 0.40 $.

Analysis
1. Long term outlook

The longterm rally is intact. Key next big target is Parity 1.00 $. But even this resistance is only psychological. Technically, we may see rallies up to 1.3-1.5 in the near term (resembling the upper side of a parallel trendchannel, as highlighted in one of the previous analysis).
Another bullish sign is the MACD indicator which shows a "hook up", indicating an accelerating rally. The approach to 1 $ will not go in a straight line as daytraders play the markets, cashing in a couple of percent if they are good. This is not bad per default as it brings liquidity into the market.


2. Short term update
The bullish outlook from the weekly and daily charts is confirmed in the short term view as well. No change vs. last update, the volume trend remains healthy. Significant volume almost exclusively happens on the upside which is bullish.

Wednesday I said: "Now that 0.36 $ has been reached, the rally is likely to accelerate (see order book). Surprises continue to be more likely on the upside." We reached 0.44 $ intraday high today (+22% in 2 days!).

Next update Monday, Jan 17th.

Your S3052

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January 14, 2011, 09:43:28 PM
 #194

Thanks for the donation of one of you!

And secondly, the poll is reset so you can vote again freshly on "What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?" See poll on the top of this thread.

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January 17, 2011, 10:27:16 PM
 #195

Just a quick update (as family member just got sick, I am hoping to give a full update Wednesday)

I want at least to give a brief update: Prices are correcting at the moment. Support should be in the 0.28-0.30 $ area.

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January 20, 2011, 06:31:38 PM
 #196

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update covering the past days (I could not give a detailed analysis before due to family issues).
Please donate to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

We continue to be in a bitcoin rally. However, we are currently in a correction phase, at least in the short term.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
The longterm rally is intact, as long as 0.28-0.29 $ is not broken to the downside.
Overall , there are are two alternate options.
1) The first one is a continued rally towards high targets: Parity 1.00 $, 1.3-1.5 $.
2) The second one is that we may see the biggest correction in the past 3-6 months.

The key trigger point is the 0.28-0.29 level. A sustained break below will activate the downside scenario.



2. Short term update

Short term we are in a correction towards the red trendline in the above displayed longterm chart to 0.28-0.29 $. If enough buyers step in at this level, the longterm rally may be kept alive.

If not, a deep correction to much lower levels (0.17, 0.10 $) are in the cards.

Next update Monday, Jan 24th.

Your S3052




charts here: http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=191

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January 21, 2011, 06:00:05 PM
 #197

********Alert*********

the market has spoken and decided that the rally goes on and is accelerating

Prices respected the trendline and has broken out to the upside

Further upside surprises likely

Parity by end January still possible

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January 21, 2011, 09:07:38 PM
 #198

********Alert*********

the market has spoken and decided that the rally goes on and is accelerating

Prices respected the trendline and has broken out to the upside

Further upside surprises likely

Parity by end January still possible

Excellente.  Muy bien.

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January 23, 2011, 05:17:38 PM
 #199

New all time closing high at MtGox.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgCzm1g10zm2g25

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January 23, 2011, 06:30:03 PM
 #200



Wild.    This is happening much faster than MOST but not all people predicted.   
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