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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 503944 times)
nster
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May 13, 2011, 04:46:02 PM
 #701

The blue line is under the pink one... doesn't that mean prices should fall?  Cheesy

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May 13, 2011, 04:47:53 PM
 #702

The blue line is under the pink one... doesn't that mean prices should fall?  Cheesy
No, it means you're pregnant.

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nster
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May 13, 2011, 04:51:31 PM
 #703

The blue line is under the pink one... doesn't that mean prices should fall?  Cheesy
No, it means you're pregnant.

But I'm a virgin! maybe it happened when I was in the hot tub with my friends :/

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May 13, 2011, 04:57:06 PM
 #704

> you try and sell 100000 coins and the last 90k or so are essentially worthless

 Not true. The daily volume is around 30k so just keep selling yours over 3 or 4 days for the lowest ask. The price will drop a little but not to nothing. I'm sure you could drop 100k BTC for an average of $5 BTC over the course of a few days.



oh yeah of course, i meant all at once.

Like that thread with the guy with 371,000 of them.  I'd just sell like 1000/day for a year and retire
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May 13, 2011, 05:02:42 PM
 #705

The blue line is under the pink one... doesn't that mean prices should fall?  Cheesy

the MACD indicator typically is a trailing (not leading) indicator. This means that prices may already be back on the rise, even if there is a divergence in the MACD.

I just want to reiterate two things


1) We are still in a long and short term rally phase. No evidence yet for any reversal.

2) As we have entered an exponential rising phase, the risk for a big drop has increased substantially. Be very careful when trading this market now. It has changed its nature big time.
We will see bulls and bears fighting with each other heavily until this is resolved.

This is not a market for unexperienced traders (any more).



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Live and enjoy experiments


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May 13, 2011, 05:30:41 PM
 #706

The blue line is under the pink one... doesn't that mean prices should fall?  Cheesy
No, it means you're pregnant.
Exactly. Mixing pregnancy and fall can have serious consequences.
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May 13, 2011, 05:41:27 PM
 #707

The blue line is under the pink one... doesn't that mean prices should fall?  Cheesy

the MACD indicator typically is a trailing (not leading) indicator. This means that prices may already be back on the rise, even if there is a divergence in the MACD.

I just want to reiterate two things


1) We are still in a long and short term rally phase. No evidence yet for any reversal.

2) As we have entered an exponential rising phase, the risk for a big drop has increased substantially. Be very careful when trading this market now. It has changed its nature big time.
We will see bulls and bears fighting with each other heavily until this is resolved.

This is not a market for unexperienced traders (any more).




I get the sense that a few experienced and wealthy traders just had funds cleared into MtGox and we're now seeing the results.
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May 13, 2011, 05:52:49 PM
 #708

This is not a market for unexperienced traders (any more).
[/b][/color]

Yeah, I sold some BTC a few weeks ago, not a majority of my account or anything, but a few k. Now kicking myself. I think I'm going to follow bruce wagner's advice and just hold on for the ride.

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May 13, 2011, 06:01:14 PM
 #709

This is not a market for unexperienced traders (any more).
[/b][/color]

Yeah, I sold some BTC a few weeks ago, not a majority of my account or anything, but a few k. Now kicking myself. I think I'm going to follow bruce wagner's advice and just hold on for the ride.

I hold bitcoin till the bitter end or world domination.  Wink

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May 13, 2011, 07:16:47 PM
 #710

I did a bit more analysis on the exponential rise and took a well known market for reference.

We are in a "x-mas tree" pattern, which very frequently happens after exponential rises.
I would not be surprised if we see a mirror image on Bitcoins in the next 2-3 weeks,
from whatever high will be marked
(perhaps it is the current one at 8.45 $ or we see another pop up higher.)







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May 13, 2011, 07:26:27 PM
 #711

@S3052
Assuming this is the case, how do you judge when the "tree" is going to peak?

Vires In Numeris.
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May 13, 2011, 07:30:41 PM
 #712

The tree breaks once the exponentially rising lines is broken to the downside.

This runs currently between 7.4-7.6$.

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ribuck
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May 13, 2011, 07:34:14 PM
 #713

I predict it's going to fall all the way to $10 by Monday then eventually $100.

As epii says, you can't pick the peak till after it has happened, because exponential curves have the same shape at all parts.
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May 13, 2011, 07:36:58 PM
 #714

@S3052
Assuming this is the case, how do you judge when the "tree" is going to peak?

Looking at the depth of market, it seems to be stalling under 8$... it may be now

big Ask resistance at 8$, low Bid resistance :/

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epii
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May 13, 2011, 08:15:38 PM
 #715

Here's my take: I think it's consistent with all common wisdom that Bitcoin will have a reversal soon, I think it would be beneficial to Bitcoin in the long term to have a reversal now, and I know it would be beneficial to me personally.

That being said, I'm not willing to go right out and predict one.  Every time I've bet on Bitcoin reversing, it's screwed me.  The psychology of Bitcoin investors is something totally unique and unpredictable except on very short timescales.  Looking at what has happened up to now, there is no evidence to justify betting on anything except growth.

Vires In Numeris.
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May 13, 2011, 08:24:10 PM
 #716

I did a bit more analysis on the exponential rise and took a well known market for reference.
We are in a "x-mas tree" pattern, which very frequently happens after exponential rises.
I would not be surprised if we see a mirror image on Bitcoins in the next 2-3 weeks,
from whatever high will be marked
(perhaps it is the current one at 8.45 $ or we see another pop up higher.)

Well this may or may not  be the case, but BTC and silver are very different things. Silver's been around as a common currency since at least the middle ages, and probably quite a bit longer, so the bitcoin uptake may continue more or less unabated if new people keep buying in.

http://media.witcoin.com/p/1608/8----This-is-nuts

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mewantsbitcoins
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May 13, 2011, 08:26:24 PM
 #717

I'm no expert in these matters, but IMO it's very simple. The only time Bitcoin dropped in value was when Mtgox was DDoSed. All the other fluctuations correlate with articles in press and other exposure to the masses or lack thereof. I think the value will be increasing for a long time to come as long as there is a steady influx of new users
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May 13, 2011, 08:49:19 PM
 #718

The price dropped before the ddos. It was unchanged during the ddos.

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May 13, 2011, 08:51:17 PM
 #719

I'm no expert in these matters, but IMO it's very simple. The only time Bitcoin dropped in value was when Mtgox was DDoSed. All the other fluctuations correlate with articles in press and other exposure to the masses or lack thereof. I think the value will be increasing for a long time to come as long as there is a steady influx of new users
this are my thoughts exactly.
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May 13, 2011, 08:59:34 PM
 #720

@S3052 : I would agree with your analysis IF there the market wasn't so thin. One large sell order can crash the entire market, and one large buy order can push it over the next dollar amount. It would take a LOT more capital to do that to silver.

However I do feel that it will stagnate for a while or drop in value until Bitcoin receives more media attention. If it ever appears in mainstream media (Fox, CNN, TIME), the price would easily double. At the current rate/hype we are way overbought.
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