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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
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Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509209 times)
S3052
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May 07, 2011, 08:39:06 PM
 #581

...the withdrawal limit of 1000$ per day is a joke for investors...
MagicalTux, the owner of MtGox, has repeatedly made it clear that serious traders can make arrangements with him for a higher limit.

I am aware of this and this is good, but still far from ideal.

If an investor would hear this from a typical broker he still would not have great confidence and as a result may not trade on this very platform, because there are no clear criteria under which conditions higher transactions are allowed.

Transparency is key.

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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pjwaffle
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May 07, 2011, 10:04:19 PM
 #582

Of course, if the exchange does not work, price does not work (change..)

Overall, the current situation of the exchanges including MtGox as the biggest, is far from working properly.

This can be one fundamental reason why BTC prices may go down significantly. Confidence into the exchanges must be high to attract new funds from investors.

Confidence is shaken now with all the DDOS.

Secondly, the withdrawal limit of 1000$ per day is a joke for investors. No serious investor will put hundreds of thousands of funds into an exchange if he can not take out funds within hours (max 1-3 days) to shift asset allocation quickly.

(This is no blame to people operating the exchanges. They are great entrepreneurs, do this often for free and doing a great job, but this is not enough, given the fact that 11,000 new coins are generated daily, 77,000 weekly, 335,000 monthly = 1.2 million $ at current BTC/USD rate)



I agree, these limits will cause a major drop on liquidity, and a decline in prices. (in addition to the already-insane bubble! Tongue)
FreeMoney
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May 08, 2011, 04:17:22 AM
 #583

Of course, if the exchange does not work, price does not work (change..)

Overall, the current situation of the exchanges including MtGox as the biggest, is far from working properly.

This can be one fundamental reason why BTC prices may go down significantly. Confidence into the exchanges must be high to attract new funds from investors.

Confidence is shaken now with all the DDOS.

Secondly, the withdrawal limit of 1000$ per day is a joke for investors. No serious investor will put hundreds of thousands of funds into an exchange if he can not take out funds within hours (max 1-3 days) to shift asset allocation quickly.

(This is no blame to people operating the exchanges. They are great entrepreneurs, do this often for free and doing a great job, but this is not enough, given the fact that 11,000 new coins are generated daily, 77,000 weekly, 335,000 monthly = 1.2 million $ at current BTC/USD rate)



I agree, these limits will cause a major drop on liquidity, and a decline in prices. (in addition to the already-insane bubble! Tongue)

Jeez, it's annoying and I don't like that he cares about interpretations of the elders scribbles, but it's not going to effect the market at all. You send and email you get your money fast. It's easy.

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S3052
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May 08, 2011, 06:56:24 AM
 #584

Fortunately for bitcoin, there is still so much rising publicity and interest that no major drop in prices is happening.

It would still be good to continuously improve liquidity and easy of transcations as this will help bitcoin to get its fair value ... which could be in the thousands when measured in USD if more and more businesses accept it.

>15years analysis experience

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ribuck
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May 08, 2011, 08:46:31 AM
 #585

... help bitcoin to get its fair value ... which could be in the thousands when measured in USD ...
You have a financial interest in the market's response to your Technical Analysis, I presume. I mean, you're not a disinterested outsider, are you?
S3052
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May 08, 2011, 10:45:27 AM
 #586

I have never made any secret about the fact that I like the bitcoin idea and hold some bitcoins.

At the same time, I always provide a fair analysis in both, up and downside directions.


>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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May 08, 2011, 10:55:28 AM
 #587

If I remember correctly S3052 said it at very low rates at the beginning too.
So here is more an ideological interest than the financial interest. And I do
not think that the ideological interest may affect the integrity of the analysis.
His analysis predicts a growth and a decline at different times, so it is not
directed to only one side. There is nothing wrong that he has a few bitcoins.

"Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment." © S3052
ribuck
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May 08, 2011, 12:11:21 PM
 #588

There is nothing wrong that he has a few bitcoins.
There's nothing at all wrong with S3052 holding coins, even if it's more than "a few". I just prefer to see it out in the open, that's all.

If S3052 had chosen to respond "none of your business", that would have been OK too.
Stephen Gornick
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May 08, 2011, 04:10:43 PM
 #589

...the withdrawal limit of 1000$ per day is a joke for investors...
MagicalTux, the owner of MtGox, has repeatedly made it clear that serious traders can make arrangements with him for a higher limit.

From #bitcoin-otc on 2011-05-08:

(10:18:45 PM) MagicalTux: btw, people who live in europe and have nationality of a country located in europe can have their daily withdrawal limit (both in EUR and BTC) increased up to 50k$ by providing the required proofs, more infos at info@mtgox.com


pjwaffle
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May 08, 2011, 04:32:14 PM
 #590

...the withdrawal limit of 1000$ per day is a joke for investors...
MagicalTux, the owner of MtGox, has repeatedly made it clear that serious traders can make arrangements with him for a higher limit.

From #bitcoin-otc on 2011-05-08:

(10:18:45 PM) MagicalTux: btw, people who live in europe and have nationality of a country located in europe can have their daily withdrawal limit (both in EUR and BTC) increased up to 50k$ by providing the required proofs, more infos at info@mtgox.com



I don't live in Europe, and I would never send the "required proofs"... How many people would?

That's the question.
eMansipater
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May 08, 2011, 08:31:16 PM
 #591

lol, I would.  Not everybody is concerned with anonymity/privacy--I just want to see it succeed as an incredibly effective technology.  If you're trying to avoid taxes or something like that it's a decision that has nothing to do with the technology of bitcoin.  Personally, I'd advise against it.

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May 08, 2011, 10:51:52 PM
 #592

The "big players" sitting on the sidelines now due to a lack of liquidity would love to provide KYC information in exchange for the removal or raising of transaction size limits, I'm sure.
mikegogulski
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May 09, 2011, 01:09:56 AM
 #593


From #bitcoin-otc on 2011-05-08:

(10:18:45 PM) MagicalTux: btw, people who live in europe and have nationality of a country located in europe can have their daily withdrawal limit (both in EUR and BTC) increased up to 50k$ by providing the required proofs, more infos at info@mtgox.com


No love for legally-resident-in-Europe stateless persons, refugees or asylees, but it's a start!

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LMGTFY
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May 09, 2011, 09:42:41 AM
 #594


From #bitcoin-otc on 2011-05-08:

(10:18:45 PM) MagicalTux: btw, people who live in europe and have nationality of a country located in europe can have their daily withdrawal limit (both in EUR and BTC) increased up to 50k$ by providing the required proofs, more infos at info@mtgox.com


No love for legally-resident-in-Europe stateless persons, refugees or asylees, but it's a start!
Or foreign nationals legally resident in Europe, which affects non-European expatriates - Commonwealth citizens (e.g. Canadians, Australians), South Africans, etc, in Europe on working visas. I'd imagine the City of London, for example, is full of non-Europeans (apparently London-proper is the second-largest "New Zealand" city in terms of population - with more New Zealanders in it than the capital of New Zealand!)

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May 09, 2011, 04:06:54 PM
 #595

http://hostinga.imagecross.com/image-hosting-00/3828chart_pricechannel_flat.png

I keep looking at this and wondering if we're going to get any kind of meaningful pullback soon or if we're just going to drift sideways for the next couple months.  If we follow the pattern of the last two runs it looks to me like we could drift downward until early july or so down to about 2, then a huge rally would take us past 5.  Or maybe we'll just shoot for 5 now?  Exponential growth makes me nervous . . .  Tongue
ribuck
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May 09, 2011, 04:44:49 PM
 #596

Exponential growth makes me nervous . . .  Tongue
Exponential shrinkage is what would make me nervous . . .
FreeMoney
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May 09, 2011, 05:02:01 PM
 #597

http://hostinga.imagecross.com/image-hosting-00/3828chart_pricechannel_flat.png

I keep looking at this and wondering if we're going to get any kind of meaningful pullback soon or if we're just going to drift sideways for the next couple months.  If we follow the pattern of the last two runs it looks to me like we could drift downward until early july or so down to about 2, then a huge rally would take us past 5.  Or maybe we'll just shoot for 5 now?  Exponential growth makes me nervous . . .  Tongue

That channel has always seemed pretty convincing to me, but I just was thinking about the difference between those peaks. The first was on very thin volume. The orderbook completely emptied, if the guy who sold at .50 had listed .60 that channel would be at a way different angle, and I don't mean relative to now, but relative to the volumes before the peak. The second was more actively traded. So if you look for the price where a similar relative volume was actually traded and get a reasonable 'adjusted peak' you would see a steeper channel.

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Enky1974
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May 09, 2011, 05:33:34 PM
 #598

This is my version of the channel
http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/7425/channelp.png
sorry for the average quality but it's still clear. the channel at dec 2011 will range from 5$ to 20$ i drew 3 horizontal lines at 5,10,20$

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MoonShadow
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May 09, 2011, 05:57:12 PM
 #599

Exponential growth makes me nervous . . .  Tongue
Exponential shrinkage is what would make me nervous . . .

It probably makes him nervous because exponential growth might imply an exponential slide.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

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May 09, 2011, 07:56:10 PM
 #600

I prediction is that anytime sold we will fall below 3$, 2.3~2.5$ perhaps even. than slowly back to 3$, stay there a while, then a rise up to 4.8$ ish and we'll see if we break the 5$

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