Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[S3052]

...the withdrawal limit of 1000$ per day is a joke for investors...

MagicalTux, the owner of MtGox, has repeatedly made it clear that serious traders can make arrangements with him for a higher limit.

I am aware of this and this is good, but still far from ideal.

If an investor would hear this from a typical broker he still would not have great confidence and as a result may not trade on this very platform, because there are no clear criteria under which conditions higher transactions are allowed.

Transparency is key.

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[pjwaffle]

Of course, if the exchange does not work, price does not work (change..)

Overall, the current situation of the exchanges including MtGox as the biggest, is far from working properly.

This can be one fundamental reason why BTC prices may go down significantly. Confidence into the exchanges must be high to attract new funds from investors.

Confidence is shaken now with all the DDOS.

Secondly, the withdrawal limit of 1000$ per day is a joke for investors. No serious investor will put hundreds of thousands of funds into an exchange if he can not take out funds within hours (max 1-3 days) to shift asset allocation quickly.

(This is no blame to people operating the exchanges. They are great entrepreneurs, do this often for free and doing a great job, but this is not enough, given the fact that 11,000 new coins are generated daily, 77,000 weekly, 335,000 monthly = 1.2 million $ at current BTC/USD rate)

I agree, these limits will cause a major drop on liquidity, and a decline in prices. (in addition to the already-insane bubble! )

[FreeMoney]

Of course, if the exchange does not work, price does not work (change..)

Overall, the current situation of the exchanges including MtGox as the biggest, is far from working properly.

This can be one fundamental reason why BTC prices may go down significantly. Confidence into the exchanges must be high to attract new funds from investors.

Confidence is shaken now with all the DDOS.

Secondly, the withdrawal limit of 1000$ per day is a joke for investors. No serious investor will put hundreds of thousands of funds into an exchange if he can not take out funds within hours (max 1-3 days) to shift asset allocation quickly.

(This is no blame to people operating the exchanges. They are great entrepreneurs, do this often for free and doing a great job, but this is not enough, given the fact that 11,000 new coins are generated daily, 77,000 weekly, 335,000 monthly = 1.2 million $ at current BTC/USD rate)

I agree, these limits will cause a major drop on liquidity, and a decline in prices. (in addition to the already-insane bubble! )

Jeez, it's annoying and I don't like that he cares about interpretations of the elders scribbles, but it's not going to effect the market at all. You send and email you get your money fast. It's easy.

[S3052]

Fortunately for bitcoin, there is still so much rising publicity and interest that no major drop in prices is happening.

It would still be good to continuously improve liquidity and easy of transcations as this will help bitcoin to get its fair value ... which could be in the thousands when measured in USD if more and more businesses accept it.

[ribuck]

... help bitcoin to get its fair value ... which could be in the thousands when measured in USD ...

You have a financial interest in the market's response to your Technical Analysis, I presume. I mean, you're not a disinterested outsider, are you?

[S3052]

I have never made any secret about the fact that I like the bitcoin idea and hold some bitcoins.

At the same time, I always provide a fair analysis in both, up and downside directions.

[LZ]

If I remember correctly S3052 said it at very low rates at the beginning too.
So here is more an ideological interest than the financial interest. And I do
not think that the ideological interest may affect the integrity of the analysis.
His analysis predicts a growth and a decline at different times, so it is not
directed to only one side. There is nothing wrong that he has a few bitcoins.

[ribuck]

There is nothing wrong that he has a few bitcoins.

There's nothing at all wrong with S3052 holding coins, even if it's more than "a few". I just prefer to see it out in the open, that's all.

If S3052 had chosen to respond "none of your business", that would have been OK too.

[Stephen Gornick]

...the withdrawal limit of 1000$ per day is a joke for investors...

MagicalTux, the owner of MtGox, has repeatedly made it clear that serious traders can make arrangements with him for a higher limit.

From #bitcoin-otc on 2011-05-08:

(10:18:45 PM) MagicalTux: btw, people who live in europe and have nationality of a country located in europe can have their daily withdrawal limit (both in EUR and BTC) increased up to 50k$ by providing the required proofs, more infos at info@mtgox.com

[pjwaffle]

...the withdrawal limit of 1000$ per day is a joke for investors...

MagicalTux, the owner of MtGox, has repeatedly made it clear that serious traders can make arrangements with him for a higher limit.

From #bitcoin-otc on 2011-05-08:

(10:18:45 PM) MagicalTux: btw, people who live in europe and have nationality of a country located in europe can have their daily withdrawal limit (both in EUR and BTC) increased up to 50k$ by providing the required proofs, more infos at info@mtgox.com

I don't live in Europe, and I would never send the "required proofs"... How many people would?

That's the question.

[eMansipater]

lol, I would.  Not everybody is concerned with anonymity/privacy--I just want to see it succeed as an incredibly effective technology.  If you're trying to avoid taxes or something like that it's a decision that has nothing to do with the technology of bitcoin.  Personally, I'd advise against it.

[BitterTea]

The "big players" sitting on the sidelines now due to a lack of liquidity would love to provide KYC information in exchange for the removal or raising of transaction size limits, I'm sure.

[mikegogulski]

From #bitcoin-otc on 2011-05-08:

(10:18:45 PM) MagicalTux: btw, people who live in europe and have nationality of a country located in europe can have their daily withdrawal limit (both in EUR and BTC) increased up to 50k$ by providing the required proofs, more infos at info@mtgox.com

No love for legally-resident-in-Europe stateless persons, refugees or asylees, but it's a start!

[LMGTFY]

From #bitcoin-otc on 2011-05-08:

(10:18:45 PM) MagicalTux: btw, people who live in europe and have nationality of a country located in europe can have their daily withdrawal limit (both in EUR and BTC) increased up to 50k$ by providing the required proofs, more infos at info@mtgox.com

No love for legally-resident-in-Europe stateless persons, refugees or asylees, but it's a start!

Or foreign nationals legally resident in Europe, which affects non-European expatriates - Commonwealth citizens (e.g. Canadians, Australians), South Africans, etc, in Europe on working visas. I'd imagine the City of London, for example, is full of non-Europeans (apparently London-proper is the second-largest "New Zealand" city in terms of population - with more New Zealanders in it than the capital of New Zealand!)

[Current-C]

http://hostinga.imagecross.com/image-hosting-00/3828chart_pricechannel_flat.png

I keep looking at this and wondering if we're going to get any kind of meaningful pullback soon or if we're just going to drift sideways for the next couple months.  If we follow the pattern of the last two runs it looks to me like we could drift downward until early july or so down to about 2, then a huge rally would take us past 5.  Or maybe we'll just shoot for 5 now?  Exponential growth makes me nervous . . . 

[ribuck]

Exponential growth makes me nervous . . . 

Exponential shrinkage is what would make me nervous . . .

[FreeMoney]

http://hostinga.imagecross.com/image-hosting-00/3828chart_pricechannel_flat.png

I keep looking at this and wondering if we're going to get any kind of meaningful pullback soon or if we're just going to drift sideways for the next couple months.  If we follow the pattern of the last two runs it looks to me like we could drift downward until early july or so down to about 2, then a huge rally would take us past 5.  Or maybe we'll just shoot for 5 now?  Exponential growth makes me nervous . . . 

That channel has always seemed pretty convincing to me, but I just was thinking about the difference between those peaks. The first was on very thin volume. The orderbook completely emptied, if the guy who sold at .50 had listed .60 that channel would be at a way different angle, and I don't mean relative to now, but relative to the volumes before the peak. The second was more actively traded. So if you look for the price where a similar relative volume was actually traded and get a reasonable 'adjusted peak' you would see a steeper channel.

[Enky1974]

This is my version of the channel
http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/7425/channelp.png
sorry for the average quality but it's still clear. the channel at dec 2011 will range from 5$ to 20$ i drew 3 horizontal lines at 5,10,20$

[MoonShadow]

Exponential growth makes me nervous . . . 

Exponential shrinkage is what would make me nervous . . .

It probably makes him nervous because exponential growth might imply an exponential slide.

[nster]

I prediction is that anytime sold we will fall below 3$, 2.3~2.5$ perhaps even. than slowly back to 3$, stay there a while, then a rise up to 4.8$ ish and we'll see if we break the 5$