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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 503705 times)
ribuck
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January 23, 2011, 09:49:59 PM
 #201

New all time closing high at MtGox.

"Closing price" seems a pretty arbitrary notion for an exchange that's open 24 hours per day. One could equally look for the "highest all time 2.03pm price at MtGox".
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S3052
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January 23, 2011, 10:06:48 PM
 #202

Fair point. I considered that and waited 3 days before publishing it (we are now 3 days above 0.4$, meaning that for sure one turn of the earth was covered).

Closing prices are always difficult for currencies since they are traded 24/7.

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January 23, 2011, 11:41:04 PM
 #203

What method is used then?

The last price as-of 11:59:59 PM using NAT (Nome -Bering Time) -- a timezone that is GMT-11 I believe? http://www.timezonecheck.com/

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January 24, 2011, 10:45:16 AM
 #204

Maybe there should be some norm that the closing price is at 00:00 GMT.

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January 24, 2011, 11:29:25 PM
 #205

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.

Please donate to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

We continue to be in a bitcoin rally. The correction is liekly to be over and BTC/USD are at new highs.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
The longterm rally is intact, as long as 0.28-0.29 $ is not broken to the downside.
Overall , there are are two alternate options.
1) The first one is a continued rally towards high targets: Parity 1.00 $, 1.3-1.5 $.
2) The second one is that we may see the biggest correction in the past 3-6 months.

Option 1) has won for the time being and the rally is gaining traction.



2. Short term update

Short term we are consolidating at the high level around 0.39-0.42. A break above 0.42 will lead to prices moving towards 0.45, then 0.5, before possibly accelerating again.

Next update Wednesday, Jan 26th.

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January 24, 2011, 11:38:59 PM
 #206


New chart here:
http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=203

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January 26, 2011, 10:06:27 PM
 #207

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update. Please donate to keep it alive. Donations have gone down significantly , so I am thinking about modifying my approach (it takes me about 5 hours per week in total and I am not sure if it is worth the effort). Please indicate me if you want me to continue or not. I am still passionate about it, but I need some help. Thank you.

1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

We continue to be in a bitcoin rally. The -25% correction from mid January is over and BTC/USD are unambigously in a healthy uptrend.

Analysis

1. Long term outlook

The longterm rally is intact, as long as 0.28-0.29 $ is not broken to the downside.

The bitcoin rally has now the following big targets: Parity 1.00 $, 1.3-1.5 $. The break out of the triangle (as shown in last update) indicates a rise toward 0.7-0.8.

Key trend following indicators, i.e MACD are confirming this view.

Bollinger price bands are also stretched upwards after the break out from 0.4 $.


2. Short term update

No change vs. last update: We are consolidating just above 0.4 $. A break above 0.42 will lead to prices moving towards 0.45, then 0.5, before possibly accelerating again.

Volume is also picking up which is a healthy sign , especially as it remains above 0.4$.

Next update Friday, Jan 28th.

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http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=207

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January 28, 2011, 10:40:09 PM
 #208

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update. Please donate to keep it alive. Thank you for the donations, it helps me a lot.

1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

The forecast is well on track: We continue to be in a bitcoin rally. The -25% correction from mid January is over and BTC/USD are unambigously in a healthy uptrend.

Analysis

1. Long term outlook

The longterm rally is intact, as long as 0.30-0.32 $ is not broken to the downside (I lifted the support level based on the recent rally and acknowledging that 0.3 is the strong barrier).

The bitcoin rally has the following big targets: Parity 1.00 $, 1.3-1.5 $. The break out of the triangle (as shown in last update) indicates a rise toward 0.7-0.8.

Key trend following indicators, i.e MACD continue to confirm this view.

Bollinger price bands are also stretched upwards after the break out from 0.4 $ and show a nice uptrend.

chart: http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=211

2. Short term update

No change vs. last update: We are consolidating just above 0.4 $. A break above 0.42 will lead to prices moving towards 0.45, then 0.51 (strong sell order at mtgox), before possibly accelerating again.

Volume is very healthy supporting proces to stay above 0.4$.

Next update Monday, Jan 31th.

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fabianhjr
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January 28, 2011, 11:28:05 PM
 #209

Hey the link is broken. Thanks for the update. Cheesy

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January 28, 2011, 11:57:04 PM
 #210

corrected.
The link works now.

And in the meanwhile, prices already fulfilled the shortterm forecast , reaching 0.445

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January 30, 2011, 07:45:28 PM
 #211

I posted this also in a new thread:
In our efforts to grow the bitcoin idea, it would be useful to show laymen that Bitcoins are the best investment vs. most other financial instruments.
To show that effectively, comparative charts of BTC / USD vs. Gold, Silver, DJI, other commodities would  be brilliant.

Who has the technical capability to add this into some existing bitcoincharts sites?

thanks for leting me know.

I would like to add this perspective ideally regularly into my Bitcoin Analyses.

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LZ
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January 31, 2011, 07:05:29 AM
 #212

What is next?


"Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment." © S3052
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January 31, 2011, 07:19:33 AM
 #213

The most likely outlook from a charting view is a continued rally .
once 0.5-0.51 is broken substantially to the upside, the rally may accelerate towards 1$

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January 31, 2011, 09:16:37 AM
 #214

What is next?

Correction. Price is almost at 0.5, so many people begin to withdraw their bitcoins because they don't believe it will cross over 0.5 easily. Same situation as you highlighted @ 0.3 level...

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January 31, 2011, 12:24:15 PM
 #215

Let see what the current sentiment is:

I have reset the poll again. So, folks, tell us what you think: Up, same or down?

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January 31, 2011, 09:27:59 PM
 #216

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.

Please donate to keep it alive:

1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

The rally is accelerating, coupled with strong buying volume.



Analysis

1. Long term outlook

The bitcoin rally has more legs. Today, a new all time intraday high on MtGox has been reached (today 0.52 $, up +200% from just a one and a half months ago). Closing all time high has already been made a week ago which signaled the upmove.

Now we see the following big targets: Parity 1.00 $, 1.3-1.5 $.

For perspective, while the move towards 1 $ seem to be huge, if you think about the overall min-size of the bitcoin market, much higher targets are plausible and should not surprise anyone. Condition for that is further money inflow. Just for example, if a couple of $ million flow into the market, we may see 10 $ or 100$ per bitcoin fast.

Key trend following indicators, i.e MACD continue to confirm this view. The "upward hook" from today (see chart below) signals a further acceleration of the rally.


2. Short term update

Not a lot of words needed, the charts speak for themselves. Clear uptrend .Prices may pause to give buyers a last chance to buy around the 0.5 level before moving higher.

Support levels are 0.47 $, 0.45 $, but As long as o.4 $ holds, there is no doubt about the bitcoin rally.


Next update Friday, 4th. (I am out travelling the next days. Next update will be Friday. In case sth materially changes I will try to put a short message into the blog and forum).

Your S3052

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ribuck
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January 31, 2011, 09:35:36 PM
 #217

...In case sth materially changes...

Heh, while you were composing that, it materially changed!
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January 31, 2011, 09:37:11 PM
 #218

That's life  Smiley

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February 04, 2011, 07:12:17 PM
 #219

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.

Please donate to keep it alive: (I need some BTC to make this worthwhile for me longterm)

1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9


The rally is continuing with strong momentum. Surprises continue to be likley on the upside.

Analysis

1. Long term outlook

The forecast is totally on track. Parity has been reached more or less (i.e. 1$ on Feb 1 on bitcoincentral, 0.95$ on mtgox), much faster as many have expected (I have been probably one of the few who has said that we may already reach it by end Jan '11 (sorry, I was wrong by 1 day, please forgive me).

Key indicators like the MACD also confirm the accelerating nature of the bitcoin market (see first chart).


Now, many ask what the next targets are..?

I did some trendline analysis based on log scale, which is more realistic given the exponential rise over the past months.

as you see in the second chart below, upper trendline resistance lies in the 1.5$ to 1.7$ range, which is significant more upside (almost another 100%).


2. Short term update

After the 3-wave corrective "bull flag" that developed from the 0.95$ high, prices broke out today to the upside on high volume (22,000 USD).

As long as price do not break the 0.4-0.45 $ area, there is no doubt about the bitcoin rally. Short term support is now the 0.70-0.65$ zone.


charts to be found:
http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=221

Next update Monday, 7th.

Your S3052

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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February 07, 2011, 09:26:28 PM
 #220

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.

Please donate to keep it alive: (I need some BTC to make this worthwhile for me longterm)

1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9


Sometimes no change is a good thing. While I am always happy to analyze and find out something completely different, this often does not make sense when it comes to technical market analysis. Instead, my forecast is fully on track:The rally is continuing with strong momentum. Surprises continue to be likely on the upside.

Analysis

1. Long term outlook

After dollar parity has been reached more or less (i.e. 1$ on Feb 1 on bitcoincentral, 0.95$ on mtgox), the market is now consolidating on a very high level which is bullish.

Both, volume patterns and the key trend indicator MACD are confirming the accelerating nature of the bitcoin market (charts see http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=229).


Based on logscale trendline analysis (see Monday's log scale chart), next big targets are in the 1.5$ to 1.7$ range, which is significant more upside (almost another 100%).

As long as price do not break the 0.4-0.45 $ area, there is no doubt about the bitcoin rally.


2. Short term update

Prices are consolidating around 0.83-0.90 $ and the "doji" candlesticks (see longterm chart above) indicate that there is still buying power, which is preventing prices to fall at the moment.

Short term support is now the 0.80-0.83 area where some people may be able to buy bitcoins before the rally continues higher (there was huge buying volume around 0.8 last week which acts as support now). If this level is breached, the 0.70-0.65$ zone should prove formidable.

charts see http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=229


Next update: Friday, 11th (I will be travelling as of tomorrow. I will try to post an update in between, but I rather prepare all of you that it might not work, and then positively surprise vs. under-delivering).

Your S3052

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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