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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 510148 times)
FreeMoney
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November 09, 2010, 07:29:36 PM
 #81

I'm not saying to trust the order book as a great predictor though, it is easy to drop orders in on market moves and we don't know where those will be.
It isn't perfect, and sometimes people dumps loads of USD or BTC which moves the market more than it is possible to predict.  Large blockers of 10k or more are rarely sold out in one large movement.  When there is one just above current market price, and none below, the market can only move quickly in one direction.  Turned out I was right this time.  The price dropped all the way from 0.32 to 0.2 in minutes.  It may happen again.  Upwards resistance is strong from about 0.295.  I can't see any blockers downwards.

Mtgox said hopefully he will show us all bids/asks as soon as today. But yeah, there isn't much in the visible range.

Something to consider also is that people may be willing to buy a lot of coins at say 15 cents, but don't bother to load up LR/mtgox when the price is over 30 cents because it doesn't seem likely to go that low. When it does, it takes these people time to get money on site.

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S3052
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November 09, 2010, 08:47:51 PM
 #82

Interim bitcoin forecast and bitcoin technical analysis update:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4159453#post4159453

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November 09, 2010, 10:24:16 PM
 #83

Thanks for the donation today. Much appreciated.

>15years analysis experience

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November 09, 2010, 11:11:09 PM
 #84

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=264527&page=2

>15years analysis experience

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sturle
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November 10, 2010, 10:50:19 AM
 #85

I'm not saying to trust the order book as a great predictor though, it is easy to drop orders in on market moves and we don't know where those will be.
It isn't perfect, and sometimes people dumps loads of USD or BTC which moves the market more than it is possible to predict.  Large blockers of 10k or more are rarely sold out in one large movement.  When there is one just above current market price, and none below, the market can only move quickly in one direction.  Turned out I was right this time.  The price dropped all the way from 0.32 to 0.2 in minutes.  It may happen again.  Upwards resistance is strong from about 0.295.  I can't see any blockers downwards.
Something to consider also is that people may be willing to buy a lot of coins at say 15 cents, but don't bother to load up LR/mtgox when the price is over 30 cents because it doesn't seem likely to go that low. When it does, it takes these people time to get money on site.
Perfectly right.  After a short visit to 0.14, the large buy orders are coming in now.  The upwards resistance has become invisible, and there are almost no coins for sale below 0.23.  I think it is time for a rise again, at least on a short term.  Still without using any waves, triangles or trend lines.  Just my untrained eyes. :-)

Sjå http://bitmynt.no for veksling av bitcoin mot norske kroner.  Trygt, billig, raskt og enkelt sidan 2010.
I buy with EUR and other currencies at a fair market price when you want to sell.  See http://bitmynt.no/eurprice.pl
I support the roadmap.  If a majority of miners ever try to forcefully take control of Bitcoin through a hard fork without 100% consensus, I will immediately split out and dump all my forkcoins, and buy more real Bitcoin.
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November 10, 2010, 04:20:31 PM
 #86

My untrained eyes say, up until 0.23-0.24 and then down again. Trend is still negative. If it breaks through this barrier it might go up again, but looking at the current market depth, there are more sellers then buyers, so I guess it will not be happening.
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November 10, 2010, 07:58:33 PM
 #87

Someone from forexfactory moved our thread to the category "Forums > Commercial Forum (beta) > Under Evaluation".

I don't understand it but as long as people can see it I am fine and don't think we need to fight this battle.

Here is the new link:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=264527&page=2

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kiba
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November 10, 2010, 09:03:04 PM
 #88

People might think it is some kind of spams.

It does not help if the people posting in questions have a low post history.

When you promote bitcoins on other forum, please establish yourself with the community in questions. At least 100 posts.

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November 10, 2010, 09:05:27 PM
 #89

Good advice. Thanks.

Let me find out with them why they have moved it. At least I want to ask one question (to find out whether it was because I am not yet trusted enough on this forum or if they think it is because of bitcoins not widely accepted as commodity / currency.

Any objections before I ask them?

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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November 10, 2010, 09:56:15 PM
 #90

Good advice. Thanks.

Let me find out with them why they have moved it. At least I want to ask one question (to find out whether it was because I am not yet trusted enough on this forum or if they think it is because of bitcoins not widely accepted as commodity / currency.

Any objections before I ask them?


It doesnt help our cause that wikipedia deleted the bitcoin article. You should ask an admin or mod if there is an issue.
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November 10, 2010, 10:31:48 PM
 #91

As promised, here tonight's Bitcoin Forecast and Bitcoin Technical Analysis Update.

Our forecast over the past weeks and even short term over the past days was fulfilled in an almost text book manner. (just look at the previous updates).
Sometime we will also be wrong, so please recognize that you trade at your own risk.


Analysis Nov 10 charts: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4162925#post4162925
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows.
The support level between 0.13 - 0.17$ was reached quickly, but proved to be formidable (see the longterm logarithmic uptrend line, posted here again). As long as prices do not close below this level, we are in an uptrend.
If this level is broken, a deeper correction to the 0.06 level is then possible (while at lo probability).

Strong upside targets are now 0.50 $ (previous high), parity 1.00 $, and then the 1.30 - 1.50 area (upper trendchannel).

2. Short term update
Prices broke out of the triangle and forecast was fulfilled almost perfectly (Nov 8 update: "I expect the target of 0.10-0.13 to be hit in the next 1-3 days").
Price fell out of bed rapidly and crashed from 0.50$ - 0.14$ by a whopping 72% within 48 hours.
This level held and we have also seen reduced selling (lower volume as price fell).
RSI and MACD are diverging which is a positive sign.
Short term trend has turned up which will be confirmed by breaking the downward sloping trendline from the 0.50$ high (currently around 0.23$).

Key resistance is 0.30$ which shows huge selling volume in the order book. Further upside is only possible once this resistance has been cleared significantly.


Next update Friday, Nov 12th

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November 12, 2010, 09:21:28 PM
 #92

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4169733#post4169733

I have also started to post my analysis at
http://mtgox.com/blog

which may be extended in the future.

thanks to MtGox.


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BrightAnarchist
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November 13, 2010, 12:03:49 AM
 #93

I think that despite the crash, BTC prices count best as a five wave move to their peak, with an extended fifth "blowoff" move. This means they trade like commodities IMO.

This would imply that after a low-volume corrective period, we should eventually have another move and take out the highs.

Just my 2 bit opinion.
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November 13, 2010, 01:19:03 AM
 #94

The correction to the 0.13-0.17 resistance level was an important moment for the bitcoin currency, this notably has been the first time that the RSI has dropped (abet, briefly), blow 30.  I think that the bitcoin market has been fundamentally changed, and will be much wiser in the future.

Firstly, now that the market has experienced a more full range of, say ‘emotions,’ the established resistance points will be much stronger, it will now take a much larger volume to move the price to the 0.5 and 1 points.

Secondly, fundamentally, I believe that the many in the bitcoin community are at a better understanding that bitcoin must use to trade real goods and services to be fundamentally sound, this will be reflected in the more cautious speculation we are now seeing.

One off NP-Hard.
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November 13, 2010, 08:06:42 PM
 #95

Here is the additional service I am offering, see separate thread:
http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1779.0


All,

as some of you have experienced, I cover BTC/USD in the trading discussion and also on MtGox blog, and I will continue to do so.

Since I have been successfully analyzing key financial markets over the past 12 years, I am extending my service now to the following financial instruments and  - as I love so much the Bitcoin idea - will only accept bitcoins as payment.

    * Gold

    * Silver

    * DJI

    * Nasdaq 100

    * EUR/USD

    * USD index (DXY)


I am using technical analysis (indicators, wave principles, etc), coupled with sentiment measures and my personal experience.

Since I am not a web developer, I am starting this simply here on the forum via requests per mail. Initially, I will accept 20 requests per week only. Initially, price is as follows: Every specific guidance = answer of your question and analyzing it will cost 30 bitcoins, to be paid upfront to     16B4Xg1YZX3Endqm6RDeLaXWi4tBnWi2Gc

Time horizon is not intraday, but rather days, weeks and months. I will respond to your request within 48h, unless stated otherwise.

Once I have answered 20 requests per week, I will close the consultancy in the respective week.

Examples of requests can be as follows:
* How do you see Gold in USD developing over the next 4 weeks, (or 7 days, 2 months)
* I am trading DJI. What is your recommendation (long/short) over the next 7 days? What are possible entry and exit points?
etc.

Buy low and sell high!

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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S3052
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November 15, 2010, 08:57:37 AM
 #96

This is to post an interim alert on BTC/USD.
Based on price and volume developments over the past days, we see the most likely short term direction DOWN.

Prices may test the longterm uptrend line (currently around 0.13-0.165) before potentially continuing the rally.

Only a break above 0.35$ will invalidate this picture.
S3052

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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S3052
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November 15, 2010, 08:17:52 PM
 #97

I feel no need to post another update this evening. All has been said this morning, so I am posting this again, with minor finetuning.

The market is dead (for now).


"Based on price and volume developments over the past days, we see the most likely short term direction DOWN.
Prices may test the longterm uptrend line (currently around 0.13-0.165) or at least the 0.20 support area before potentially continuing the rally.
Only a break above the 0.30-0.35$ range will invalidate this picture."

Next update Wednesday, Nov 17th (provided the market starts to wake up again)

Your S3052



Donate a couple of coins to keep it alive.
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>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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S3052
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November 15, 2010, 10:48:40 PM
 #98

As prices are not moving a lot recently, here for you tonight a theoretical section around Elliott Waves, applied to BTC/USD:


The last big rally start started around Oct 7 can be counted in textbook manner as an impulsive 5-wave. The decline from the Nov 6 high could take the shape of 11 different correction pattern.
The simplest pattern is the a-b-c zigzag decline, which is illustrated in the posted chart.

Let's now also consider time relationships. The rally from Oct 7 lasted 29 days. Common Fibonacci time retracements are 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%. This points to the following time targets for an end of the correction that started Nov 6:
1) Nov 16 (+11 days, 38.2%)
2) Nov 21 (+15 days, 50%)
3) Nov 24 (+18 days, 61.8%)


Watchout: Time targets are less critical than price targets and wave patterns. Hence, use time targets as additional tool, never as the only one.

Your S3052



http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4174416#post4174416

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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Anonymous
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November 16, 2010, 05:03:50 AM
 #99

http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7686377/

Techinacal analysis now with video  Cheesy
S3052
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November 16, 2010, 08:04:38 PM
 #100

This is AWESOME!

and the guy looks much better than me :-)

Please continue :-)

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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