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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
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Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509031 times)
proudhon
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July 05, 2011, 05:05:48 PM
 #981

As I write this post, Mt Gox has dropped $3 from about $15.5 to $12.5 in a little over a day.  And it looks like this price action is confined to a channel.  If there is no breakout from the channel, we will be at the $1 price level in only 5 days.

Slow down there.  That's the same reasoning people were using to predict that we'd be at $100 by the end of June.
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SlipperySlope
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July 05, 2011, 06:15:48 PM
 #982

As I write this post, Mt Gox has dropped $3 from about $15.5 to $12.5 in a little over a day.  And it looks like this price action is confined to a channel.  If there is no breakout from the channel, we will be at the $1 price level in only 5 days.

Slow down there.  That's the same reasoning people were using to predict that we'd be at $100 by the end of June.

Agreed,I believe the channel will have a breakout, to at least a pause soon.
nealmcb
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July 06, 2011, 01:31:41 AM
 #983

The periodic postings here and at http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/ are interesting - thanks!  But I'd like to understand the theory behind them and the choice of technical indicators.  I have found the StackExchange-based Q&A sites to be a lot of fun to use and very good at helping an expert community achieve and share consensus on interesting questions, so I asked this question:

What technical indicators might be appropriate for analyzing Bitcoin currency trading? - Personal Finance and Money - Stack Exchange

Please share your insights - thanks!
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July 06, 2011, 05:30:42 AM
 #984

We're seeing a rebound after a two day selloff with big volume on both days. I would wait to see how it ends on the day just in case its a dead cat bounce. Then I might consider an entry.
proudhon
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July 06, 2011, 05:59:50 AM
 #985

We're seeing a rebound after a two day selloff with big volume on both days. I would wait to see how it ends on the day just in case its a dead cat bounce. Then I might consider an entry.

I took some nice profits on the way down at 16 and then again at 15.  I told myself I was just going to take the money and be happy, but I might put some back in if we get a dead cat bounce, which looks plausible.
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July 06, 2011, 07:18:14 AM
 #986

i think the big tell here is the volumes traded over the last few days.. when it was going down volumes were very low.. with the rally volumes are 10x greater.. suggesting a strong rebound

1P4pSRP6mZTt17TkEEA7aPMzKqUYGbYytn
like my post? send me some btc Smiley
S3052
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July 06, 2011, 11:03:12 AM
 #987

I have reset the poll.

Vote now.

Up
Down
Same?



Now its reset.
Sorry for thiserror.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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Chris Acheson
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July 06, 2011, 01:57:44 PM
 #988

Now its reset.
Sorry for thiserror.

It's locked now, for me at least.
cloon
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July 06, 2011, 04:11:48 PM
 #989

cant vote
anyone else?

donations to 13zWUMSHA7AzGjqWmJNhJLYZxHmjNPKduY
Alex Beckenham
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July 06, 2011, 04:21:32 PM
 #990

cant vote
anyone else?

Me neither. I thought it was just Chrome hiding the radio buttons again.

dserrano5
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July 06, 2011, 06:34:09 PM
 #991

cant vote
anyone else?

Me neither.


+1

brocktice
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July 06, 2011, 07:26:54 PM
 #992

I am guessing "stay the same" in a horizontal channel between, oh, 15 and 17. But just guessing (since I can't vote).

http://media.witcoin.com/p/1608/8----This-is-nuts

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MKW2012
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July 06, 2011, 08:05:50 PM
 #993

$15-$17

We're seeing big volume not seen since the middle of last month. I'm interested in if we can hold these levels.
marcus_of_augustus
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July 06, 2011, 11:48:11 PM
 #994

We're seeing a rebound after a two day selloff with big volume on both days. I would wait to see how it ends on the day just in case its a dead cat bounce. Then I might consider an entry.

I took some nice profits on the way down at 16 and then again at 15.  I told myself I was just going to take the money and be happy, but I might put some back in if we get a dead cat bounce, which looks plausible.

you bely your mentality here ...

it is not when you take profits but what you take profits in ...

for every sell there is a buy and vice versa ... sell dollars, buy a car ... buy gold, sell dollars .... buy bitcoin, sell jewellery/wife

what asset do you want to be in today is really the question? ... tomorrow is another day.


MKW2012
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July 07, 2011, 02:47:38 AM
 #995

So far we've avoided a dead cat bounce with Tuesdays intra-day low still the line in the sand. Seeing another day of higher highs and higher lows should bring more confidence in the market.

Mildly bullish.
TheMartin
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July 07, 2011, 03:34:16 AM
 #996

$15-$17
We're seeing big volume not seen since the middle of last month. I'm interested in if we can hold these levels.
I haven't got data of last month available and not shure if I get what you mean.

Could you quantify your statement please. What volume (Gox bid total till 14,00 = 4,020 BTC or Gox bid at 14,00 = 814 BTC for example) do you see now and what was the corresponding volume a month ago?

And how meaningful the market depth of Gox is ever? Does it really reflect all Bids and Asks or are there big hidden orders? And is market movement generated more from existing bid/asks or from new orders or is bid/ask even high dynamic - bids fast dissapearing when price turns down?

What is your impression so far?
MKW2012
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July 07, 2011, 04:12:26 PM
 #997

$15-$17
We're seeing big volume not seen since the middle of last month. I'm interested in if we can hold these levels.
I haven't got data of last month available and not shure if I get what you mean.

Could you quantify your statement please. What volume (Gox bid total till 14,00 = 4,020 BTC or Gox bid at 14,00 = 814 BTC for example) do you see now and what was the corresponding volume a month ago?

And how meaningful the market depth of Gox is ever? Does it really reflect all Bids and Asks or are there big hidden orders? And is market movement generated more from existing bid/asks or from new orders or is bid/ask even high dynamic - bids fast dissapearing when price turns down?

What is your impression so far?


I'm only referring to actual trades that have occured, not the pending limit orders. Bitcoincharts.com has data going back into June and even farther back in time.  As for big sell or buy orders which aren't near the current price, I take those as grain of salt. I've saw many times where those big orders disappear when they near the price those limit orders would be filled.
S3052
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July 07, 2011, 06:13:57 PM
 #998


Not sure what the issue was.
Could you try again? It should work again now.

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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MKW2012
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July 07, 2011, 06:25:51 PM
 #999


Not sure what the issue was.
Could you try again? It should work again now.

It works now.
MKW2012
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July 07, 2011, 07:36:08 PM
 #1000

So far we're seeing a continuation of yesterdays rally, although its not on as big of volume as yesterdays but it still credible. The $16.5-$17 level still proves to a key resistance level.
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