Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[S3052]

Targets, i.e. on the DJI below 1000 over the next 2-5 years.

DJIA below 1000 over the next 2-5 years? Really? You don't mean 10000?

This is not a typo. Yes, below 1,000 , possibly below 400.

I went short at 12,450 and will add to this short position as long as the DJI stays below 12,900. I have a larger position in the NDX (NASDAQ 100) which is underperforming vs. the DJI (this is a bearish sign).

[1714207794]

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[1714207794]

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[wobber]

Silver and Gold will top in the next 4 weeks and then decline for months. Silver down to below 30, then to 20 $ and below 10$

S, That's what you said on your twitter account. Why do you think that? The world's commodities are up in the sky and with the possible W global crisis I bet gold will be above $2000 by mid 2012 and silver somewhere to $100. Not to mention wars that are yet to come, civil unrests etc and US economy is F-ED up. By Ben.

Also silver is very undervalued and gold is overvalued. The ratio is way off center and this is another supporting argument.

[barbarousrelic]

Also silver is very undervalued and gold is overvalued. The ratio is way off center and this is another supporting argument.

There is no way to determine what the proper "center" should be for the gold:silver ratio.

[S3052]

Silver and Gold will top in the next 4 weeks and then decline for months. Silver down to below 30, then to 20 $ and below 10$

S, That's what you said on your twitter account. Why do you think that? The world's commodities are up in the sky and with the possible W global crisis I bet gold will be above $2000 by mid 2012 and silver somewhere to $100. Not to mention wars that are yet to come, civil unrests etc and US economy is F-ED up. By Ben.

My reasoning is based on technical chart analysis.

I am happy to bet 50 BTC that Silver will dip below 30$ before May 31, 2011 (intraday prices based Spot in USD).

[sturle]

BTC/USD short term trend change: DOWN after reaching 0.8 and breaking below 0.75. 0.50, better 0.56 $ must hold to keep longterm rally.

I think it will stay sideways and keep around 0.70$. This is only based on opinion though 

I think it will climb again.  Slowly at first, then accelerating.  I don't know exactly when this begins, of course.  I base my expectation on two observations:

1. Interest is growing.  I have been selling BTC for NOK and EUR on #bitcoin-otc for a long time.  Primarily for selling bitcoins I mined myself for currencies useful to me.  My offer is by far the longest standing on the channel.  During the last weeks I have been selling more and more, and I get a new customer almost every day now.  Old customers come back to buy more.  I sell much more than I mine, and have to  buy BTC at mtgox to satisfy demand.  I do this at almost no profit (for NOK at least) to help spread Bitcoin by better availability, and it works!

2. A lot of people are waiting for an opportunity to buy at mtgox.  The sum of money in the visible bids on mtgox is as high now as before the jump above parity with USD.  You don't keep money at mtgox and active bids unless you have an intention to buy bitcoins.

[S3052]

>sturle

Fundamentally , I agree with you 100%. BTC7USD can take off big time if the trend continues.

From a technical standpoint, there are big hurdles to pass. Update shortly on bitcoinwatch.

[nster]

BTC/USD short term trend change: DOWN after reaching 0.8 and breaking below 0.75. 0.50, better 0.56 $ must hold to keep longterm rally.

I think it will stay sideways and keep around 0.70$. This is only based on opinion though 

I think it will climb again.  Slowly at first, then accelerating.  I don't know exactly when this begins, of course.  I base my expectation on two observations:

1. Interest is growing.  I have been selling BTC for NOK and EUR on #bitcoin-otc for a long time.  Primarily for selling bitcoins I mined myself for currencies useful to me.  My offer is by far the longest standing on the channel.  During the last weeks I have been selling more and more, and I get a new customer almost every day now.  Old customers come back to buy more.  I sell much more than I mine, and have to  buy BTC at mtgox to satisfy demand.  I do this at almost no profit (for NOK at least) to help spread Bitcoin by better availability, and it works!

2. A lot of people are waiting for an opportunity to buy at mtgox.  The sum of money in the visible bids on mtgox is as high now as before the jump above parity with USD.  You don't keep money at mtgox and active bids unless you have an intention to buy bitcoins.

I meant for the short term trend, I was disagreeing with the DOWN. So far, AFAIK, I am pretty right

[S3052]

BTC/USD short term trend change: DOWN after reaching 0.8 and breaking below 0.75. 0.50, better 0.56 $ must hold to keep longterm rally.

I think it will stay sideways and keep around 0.70$. This is only based on opinion though 

Just to clarify. I never said it will go down below 0.7

I just said, the short term TREND is down as long as 0.8 $ is not broken to the upside. And prices went down from 0.78 to 0.72 (again hitting 0.72 today)

[nster]

BTC/USD short term trend change: DOWN after reaching 0.8 and breaking below 0.75. 0.50, better 0.56 $ must hold to keep longterm rally.

I think it will stay sideways and keep around 0.70$. This is only based on opinion though 

Just to clarify. I never said it will go down below 0.7

I just said, the short term TREND is down as long as 0.8 $ is not broken to the upside. And prices went down from 0.78 to 0.72 (again hitting 0.72 today)

MTGox is not the greatest indicator... atm, in reality, it is 0.75 ish. Today's high was 0.758 and hit 0.721 low. When it goes down by 3 cents in a few hours like that, you can't base yourself on that. The scenario that I thought was the most likely was that it would stay around the 0.70-0.75 mark, though at this point I thought it would be closer to 0.72, and in reality it is 0.75 (again MtGox, not the greatest indicator)

I probably did not interpret your definition of down INcorrectly. I thought a few cents like that was generally sideways, because there is no TRUE sideways in bitcoins.

[S3052]

don't worry, I am glad we have this fruitful discussion. It's all a matter of definition. You can say that between 0.7 - 0.8 we are in a sideways territory. I will publish my analysis in the next minutes to bring this into the broader perspective.

[S3052]

1

[nster]

Yea, the big question in the short term is if we break below 0.70$ or not... If we can stay above 0.70$ for the next week, we are in good shape

[S3052]

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/

http://twitter.com/#!/BitcoinAnalyst

[wobber]

S3052, do you really think bitcoin will value $10?

[S3052]

As long as the trend continues, 10$ is not unachievable.
who thought prices double every 6 weeks? Who thought bitcoins rise 13fold in only 5 months last year?

and, dont forget , I did not give a time target yet. We will need to evaluate the price action once (and if) BTC/USD make a new all time high.

[FreeMoney]

I am happy to bet 50 BTC that Silver will dip below 30$ before May 31, 2011 (intraday prices based Spot in USD).

I want that action. Where do we watch the price?

Will do up to 200BTC if you like.

[da2ce7]

Just a bit of fundamental prospective, The Bitcoin economy size was much smaller when we hit the $1.1 peak.  At that time the amount of good and services offered by the economy, by my estimation supported around a 10c price. So there was a 10x speculation.

As S3052 said, when the market was a 1.1, it could continue going up to 1.5, 1.7 and higher, or there could be a break, there was break.

The $1.1 peak showed that the investors expected the Bitcoin economy to grow 10x as large, in the medium investment term.

Since the $1.1 peak, (that shows how large the economy is expected to grow in the medium term), we market has been consolidating on the expected short-term market size.  This seems to be around 70-80c,  by seeing that it has not breached the 50c the real size of the economy growth has been 'better than expected.'

When the goods and services market size is larger than a size that is required to support 50c, we will then see out next rally to the previous target size of $1.1 (as the market is now convinced that we will achieve the medium term goal).  We will likely see that it will rally much higher as new medium term goals are set. ($5, $10, $50, etc)

The key question is:  What price would the goods and services market support now?
My answer is: at least 20c, maybe near 50c...   We are qualitatively at least twice as large as when we hit $1.1

We are on track, as the market hasn't broken 50c price yet.

[bitcool]

I am happy to bet 50 BTC that Silver will dip below 30$ before May 31, 2011 (intraday prices based Spot in USD).

I want that action. Where do we watch the price?

Will do up to 200BTC if you like.

Me three. Please let me know how this works.

[S3052]

Freemoney and bitcool:

Will do 50 btc with each of you.

On silver spot price trading below 30 at least intraday before may 31, 2011.

[FreeMoney]

Freemoney and bitcool:

Will do 50 btc with each of you.

On silver spot price trading below 30 at least intraday before may 31, 2011.

Consider it booked. I just want to know what source you consider valid for this. I watch Kitco, don't know if that's lame or rigged or whatever.