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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 504285 times)
ineededausername
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December 12, 2011, 02:45:16 AM
 #1681

lulz... all for a measly 2 bitcoins!

(BFL)^2 < 0
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bittenbob
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December 12, 2011, 02:51:38 AM
 #1682

lulz... all for a measly 2 bitcoins!
A 2 bitcoins that cant even be distributed with the given parameters. For some of us 2 BTC is a significant amount. Do not underestimate what people will do for a bitcoin or two.
finway
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December 12, 2011, 03:19:01 AM
 #1683

Why the latest prediction irrelevant to Bitcoin ?

notme
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December 12, 2011, 03:29:03 AM
 #1684

lulz... all for a measly 2 bitcoins!
A 2 bitcoins that cant even be distributed with the given parameters. For some of us 2 BTC is a significant amount. Do not underestimate what people will do for a bitcoin or two.

That concept has always been fascinating to me. Do people realize that you can't buy a McDonald's Happy Meal with the equivalent of one bitcoin right now?

But you can get a mcdouble, a small fry, and a large sweet tea.  That should feed a kid.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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netrin
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December 12, 2011, 03:32:08 AM
 #1685

When you can buy a McDonald's Happy Meal with any amount of bitcoin, you'd feed a school for 1 BTC.

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December 12, 2011, 10:57:35 AM
 #1686

I didn't do it for the 2 BTC per se. I did it because I saw a competition, and had some idea for a good way to win. The 2 BTC would be nice though Tongue
Time will tell who won (or not). Smiley

btc_artist
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December 12, 2011, 09:08:26 PM
 #1687

Watching

BTC: 1CDCLDBHbAzHyYUkk1wYHPYmrtDZNhk8zf
LTC: LMS7SqZJnqzxo76iDSEua33WCyYZdjaQoE
notme
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December 13, 2011, 12:50:35 PM
 #1688

new massive wall at 3.5 means?

I take it as a challenge

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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December 13, 2011, 02:30:51 PM
 #1689

lulz... all for a measly 2 bitcoins!
A 2 bitcoins that cant even be distributed with the given parameters. For some of us 2 BTC is a significant amount. Do not underestimate what people will do for a bitcoin or two.

That concept has always been fascinating to me. Do people realize that you can't buy a McDonald's Happy Meal with the equivalent of one bitcoin right now?

Or the other way around: do people realize you can buy a bitcoin for the price of a happy meal?

I discovered for myself (when 1 BTC was about 2 EUR), that I value 1 BTC much higher than 2 EUR and subsequently made a bank transfer to intersango right away Wink

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proudhon
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December 13, 2011, 04:38:25 PM
 #1690

new massive wall at 3.5 means?

I take it as a challenge

That guy is doing everyone who wants to see bitcoin become an online currency a huge favor.  Without that wall, if the exchange rate were to go over 3.40 the price could very quickly get out of control again, run up in another giant speculative bubble, and subsequently come violently crashing back down.  While that'd be a wonderful turn of events for speculators it would deliver another trust-destroying blow to the prospects of bitcoin as a currency.

kokjo
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December 13, 2011, 04:45:13 PM
 #1691

new massive wall at 3.5 means?

I take it as a challenge

That guy is doing everyone who wants to see bitcoin become an online currency a huge favor.  Without that wall, if the exchange rate were to go over 3.40 the price could very quickly get out of control again, run up in another giant speculative bubble, and subsequently come violently crashing back down.  While that'd be a wonderful turn of events for speculators it would deliver another trust-destroying blow to the prospects of bitcoin as a currency.


you sir are wrong, people would create more asks, and thereby creating a "wall". and the price would only spike, and not come up very high. also if the price rise, people would move their bid, and there by removing much of the bid-presure.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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December 13, 2011, 04:53:01 PM
 #1692

These massive 'fake' walls are often removed once enough pressure builds on them anyway. Both going up and going down. So we shall see.
proudhon
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December 13, 2011, 05:06:02 PM
 #1693

That guy is doing everyone who wants to see bitcoin become an online currency a huge favor.  Without that wall, if the exchange rate were to go over 3.40 the price could very quickly get out of control again, run up in another giant speculative bubble, and subsequently come violently crashing back down.  While that'd be a wonderful turn of events for speculators it would deliver another trust-destroying blow to the prospects of bitcoin as a currency.

There are many, many more people speculating on Bitcoin now than when we went to 30. This alone will make it much more difficult for such violent price changes. If the price would go to 3.40 everyone who bought at 3.30 would be placing asks at 3.50 creating a lot of friction. Speculators are exactly what prevents what you call a "wonderful turn of events for speculators".

I agree with you to a degree.  Let me clarify that I'm not suggesting that if the price breaks 3.4 then the price will immediately slide all the way up the ask side.  I do think, however, that the price pushing through the 3.5 zone will likely erode tendencies to place asks, and as the price continues to rise, that tendency will likely further erode until we do find ourselves in the same situation we were in from April to June.
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December 13, 2011, 09:32:28 PM
 #1694

That guy is doing everyone who wants to see bitcoin become an online currency a huge favor.  Without that wall, if the exchange rate were to go over 3.40 the price could very quickly get out of control again, run up in another giant speculative bubble, and subsequently come violently crashing back down.  While that'd be a wonderful turn of events for speculators it would deliver another trust-destroying blow to the prospects of bitcoin as a currency.

There are many, many more people speculating on Bitcoin now than when we went to 30. This alone will make it much more difficult for such violent price changes. If the price would go to 3.40 everyone who bought at 3.30 would be placing asks at 3.50 creating a lot of friction. Speculators are exactly what prevents what you call a "wonderful turn of events for speculators".

I agree with you to a degree.  Let me clarify that I'm not suggesting that if the price breaks 3.4 then the price will immediately slide all the way up the ask side.  I do think, however, that the price pushing through the 3.5 zone will likely erode tendencies to place asks, and as the price continues to rise, that tendency will likely further erode until we do find ourselves in the same situation we were in from April to June.

I think the same more or less. If we hit 3.5 it will fly to 4. I'm long BTC:)

If my optimistic outlook turns out, then if you buy now, and ignore the market for an entire year, when you return those bitcoins will be worth ~50% more.
old_engineer
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December 14, 2011, 01:35:10 AM
 #1695

new massive wall at 3.5 means?

I take it as a challenge

That guy is doing everyone who wants to see bitcoin become an online currency a huge favor.  Without that wall, if the exchange rate were to go over 3.40 the price could very quickly get out of control again, run up in another giant speculative bubble, and subsequently come violently crashing back down.  While that'd be a wonderful turn of events for speculators it would deliver another trust-destroying blow to the prospects of bitcoin as a currency.

I agree that the big sell wall will help dampen enthusiasm, which is good for bitcoin.  The price has been going up almost continuously for a month, setting an expectation of more price increases.  Though I think another bubble would be short-lived, it would be better to just not have one at all.

I've gone bearish, oddly enough, and I think the price is going to dip below $3 again sometime in the next month due to the holidays.  I've sold a few thousand btc over the past 2 days to keep the price below $3.25 (and my handiwork is clearly visible on the charts, which amuses me).  I'm all out now, and at a significant profit (I bought this batch at $2.2x).  I'll likely scoop up the coins again when/if they drop below $3, and if the price never drops again, well, I'm fine with that too - I'm just trying to keep the price relatively stable so that bitcoin is a useable currency.
cbeast
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December 14, 2011, 01:45:34 AM
 #1696

new massive wall at 3.5 means?

I take it as a challenge

That guy is doing everyone who wants to see bitcoin become an online currency a huge favor.  Without that wall, if the exchange rate were to go over 3.40 the price could very quickly get out of control again, run up in another giant speculative bubble, and subsequently come violently crashing back down.  While that'd be a wonderful turn of events for speculators it would deliver another trust-destroying blow to the prospects of bitcoin as a currency.

I agree that the big sell wall will help dampen enthusiasm, which is good for bitcoin.  The price has been going up almost continuously for a month, setting an expectation of more price increases.  Though I think another bubble would be short-lived, it would be better to just not have one at all.

I've gone bearish, oddly enough, and I think the price is going to dip below $3 again sometime in the next month due to the holidays.  I've sold a few thousand btc over the past 2 days to keep the price below $3.25 (and my handiwork is clearly visible on the charts, which amuses me).  I'm all out now, and at a significant profit (I bought this batch at $2.2x).  I'll likely scoop up the coins again when/if they drop below $3, and if the price never drops again, well, I'm fine with that too - I'm just trying to keep the price relatively stable so that bitcoin is a useable currency.

I think I can speak for all Bitcoin users around the world that we certainly appreciate such a magnanimous gesture.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
ineededausername
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December 14, 2011, 02:15:45 AM
 #1697

new massive wall at 3.5 means?

I take it as a challenge

That guy is doing everyone who wants to see bitcoin become an online currency a huge favor.  Without that wall, if the exchange rate were to go over 3.40 the price could very quickly get out of control again, run up in another giant speculative bubble, and subsequently come violently crashing back down.  While that'd be a wonderful turn of events for speculators it would deliver another trust-destroying blow to the prospects of bitcoin as a currency.

I agree that the big sell wall will help dampen enthusiasm, which is good for bitcoin.  The price has been going up almost continuously for a month, setting an expectation of more price increases.  Though I think another bubble would be short-lived, it would be better to just not have one at all.

I've gone bearish, oddly enough, and I think the price is going to dip below $3 again sometime in the next month due to the holidays.  I've sold a few thousand btc over the past 2 days to keep the price below $3.25 (and my handiwork is clearly visible on the charts, which amuses me).  I'm all out now, and at a significant profit (I bought this batch at $2.2x).  I'll likely scoop up the coins again when/if they drop below $3, and if the price never drops again, well, I'm fine with that too - I'm just trying to keep the price relatively stable so that bitcoin is a useable currency.

I think I can speak for all Bitcoin users around the world that we certainly appreciate such a magnanimous gesture.

We found the Manipulator Stabilizer! Cheesy

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old_engineer
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December 14, 2011, 03:25:46 AM
 #1698


I think I can speak for all Bitcoin users around the world that we certainly appreciate such a magnanimous gesture.
It's not entirely magnanimous since I just cashed out at a slight profit, making up for all my losses on the way down from $17.  But it'll be nice to not watch the charts like a hawk for a while, kind of looking forward to it, really.


We found the Manipulator Stabilizer! Cheesy

It's been really funny seeing people complain about market volatility literally every time I'm not stabilizing the market, like this past weekend when I was otherwise occupied.

And for the paranoid out there, I'm not that big of a player, with just barely 5 digits USD invested, though I've been 2-5% of all volume on mtgox the past few months.  2% is 42,000 btc over a month, or 1400 per day.  Getting three bids and three asks of 250 btc fulfilled is 1500, which really isn't that much considering that I only try to make $0.02 or so per trade, which comes out to 1500*.02 = $30 - far less than my time is worth, honestly.  Total bitcoin volume seems fairly low to me, as you can see if you look at bitcoincharts.com and click "volume in currency".  It's still lower than it was this past summer.  Bitcoin is still a toddler and barely walking.
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December 14, 2011, 05:03:50 AM
 #1699

People say funny things about volume. When bitcoin was worth 10x as much as today, we might expect the volume in dollars to be 10x more. Let's compare volume during time periods with comparable prices, between $2 and $4...




Nothing unusual there

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December 14, 2011, 05:22:09 AM
 #1700

Shit.... That's a lot of volume.  However, I think it's more realistic to expect similar amounts.  Because the USD market is so much bigger and it dominates fiat-btc exchange, USD holders can easily control the price.  Therefore, volume in USD is more reliablly comparable over the long term (at least so far).

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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