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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509205 times)
proudhon
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November 24, 2011, 08:57:47 PM
 #1601

The last big stagnation was ~3, before the large dump.  I'm as confident as ever that we will not return to that price, just like every other time before.  Stagnation leads to large drop, there's a "rally" up from new lows which never reaches the previous stagnation price, and then after a new period of stagnation there's another large drop.  Repeat.
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November 24, 2011, 09:41:24 PM
 #1602

The last big stagnation was ~3, before the large dump.  I'm as confident as ever that we will not return to that price, just like every other time before.  Stagnation leads to large drop, there's a "rally" up from new lows which never reaches the previous stagnation price, and then after a new period of stagnation there's another large drop.  Repeat.
If you honestly think this behaviour is going to repeat forever, you're basically admitting that you're clueless.

It's only going to go like that as long as the general trend is down and it's easier to manipulate the price down than up. Once the price is low enough, there is a reversal and the exact same behaviour starts happening in reverse. For a confirmation of a reversal we would need $4 to break though.

So far $2 has been extremely solid as a bottom, we've seen nothing like it after the peak. This (third) time it's unlikely that we'll even see another test of $2 because the support strength of $2 is so massive. If we did see one, it would probably melt quickly and result in a massive crash. But I'm personally starting to favor the triple bottom scenario more than that.

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November 24, 2011, 10:04:04 PM
 #1603

The last big stagnation was ~3, before the large dump.  I'm as confident as ever that we will not return to that price, just like every other time before.  Stagnation leads to large drop, there's a "rally" up from new lows which never reaches the previous stagnation price, and then after a new period of stagnation there's another large drop.  Repeat.
If you honestly think this behaviour is going to repeat forever, you're basically admitting that you're clueless.

It's only going to go like that as long as the general trend is down and it's easier to manipulate the price down than up. Once the price is low enough, there is a reversal and the exact same behaviour starts happening in reverse. For a confirmation of a reversal we would need $4 to break though.

So far $2 has been extremely solid as a bottom, we've seen nothing like it after the peak. This (third) time it's unlikely that we'll even see another test of $2 because the support strength of $2 is so massive. If we did see one, it would probably melt quickly and result in a massive crash. But I'm personally starting to favor the triple bottom scenario more than that.
It will only go up if people want it to go up. Ixcoin isn't going up, even though it is ridiculously easy to manipulate the price up 1000-10000%.
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November 25, 2011, 10:09:12 PM
 #1604

This is heavy...

But the blood still not runs on streets, so i will wait awhile )

The blood is dried and the corpses are decomposing and stinky.
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November 26, 2011, 01:17:21 AM
 #1605

This is heavy...

But the blood still not runs on streets, so i will wait awhile )

The blood is dried and the corpses are decomposing and stinky.

Yeah, the blood is sort of oozing along... definitely not running

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molecular
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November 29, 2011, 11:36:51 PM
 #1606

If some commodity (bitcoin for example) has changed it's price significantly against some well established currency ($) shouldn't its trading volume decline? Because volume of 50 000 BTC at 0.06$ and 0.2$ represents proportionally different volume in $. It will stay the same only if the actual volume of the economy is larger.

Perhaps BTC exchangers should provide volume data in their other currencies? This will provide more realistic view in my opinion.

On bitcoincharts you can tick "volume in currency", that is what you mean, right?

slightly ot, but I just stumbled over a quote I'd like to share:

Very often people have figured out we are going to have a major move, but before that move takes place there is a huge counter-trend move down and it gets rid of all but the true believers.  That’s actually extraordinarily healthy because when it goes, it goes really clean to the upside....

dont know if this applies here, but I like the sound of it

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S3052
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November 30, 2011, 08:51:22 AM
 #1607

What you expressed above happens very often, basically kicking out the weak hands and this leads to very strong and healthy moves.
False signals are very frequent in all financial markets, and the art is to differentiate between false and real signals.

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November 30, 2011, 09:00:29 AM
 #1608

The poll is reset again.

What is your view on bitcoin prices over the next weeks?

Up?
Down?
Same as now?
Don't know?

Also, sign in for free here if you like to be closer to the analysis:
http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/forum.html#/news/

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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November 30, 2011, 10:38:32 AM
 #1609

The poll is reset again.

What is your view on bitcoin prices over the next weeks?

Up?
Down?
Same as now?
Don't know?

Also, sign in for free here if you like to be closer to the analysis:
http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/forum.html#/news/


sorry, may I ask you to do it again? I forgot to reset.

And as a benefit, I will issue a new sentiment analysis in the next days, making the link to the most likely direction of the bitcoin market.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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molecular
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November 30, 2011, 11:05:13 AM
 #1610

The poll is reset again.

What is your view on bitcoin prices over the next weeks?

Up?
Down?
Same as now?
Don't know?

Ever since I read somewhere that what people think the prices will do is often the opposite of what they really will do, I don't know how to vote any more. There's an urge to invert my vote.

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S3052
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November 30, 2011, 02:05:44 PM
 #1611

The poll is reset again.

What is your view on bitcoin prices over the next weeks?

Up?
Down?
Same as now?
Don't know?

Ever since I read somewhere that what people think the prices will do is often the opposite of what they really will do, I don't know how to vote any more. There's an urge to invert my vote.


You are not completely wrong. Actually, the sentiment is very often a contrarian indicator.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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molecular
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November 30, 2011, 09:57:16 PM
 #1612

I'm guessing some people at the bitcoin conference decided to invest a little money. They triggered EUR transfers to mtgox on monday and now the money is available to spend on BTC. That's why we cracked 3. Makes sense?

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slush
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November 30, 2011, 10:08:23 PM
 #1613

molecular, there was also that radio show with Roger last week, it can affect the price too.

BTCurious
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November 30, 2011, 10:11:12 PM
 #1614

Conference, radio show, Europe getting messed up, and on longer scale the ongoing occupy wallstreet and US liquidity issues. Did I miss anything?

Things I think will have less influence at this moment: Bitcoinica UI change, Bitcoin client 0.5, MtGox countdown.

proudhon
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November 30, 2011, 10:12:24 PM
 #1615

I'm guessing some people at the bitcoin conference decided to invest a little money. They triggered EUR transfers to mtgox on monday and now the money is available to spend on BTC. That's why we cracked 3. Makes sense?

I think that's an excellent guess.  Just like the US conference this will end up being temporary and the march downward will resume once the dust settles in the next few days.
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November 30, 2011, 10:16:37 PM
 #1616

I'm guessing some people at the bitcoin conference decided to invest a little money. They triggered EUR transfers to mtgox on monday and now the money is available to spend on BTC. That's why we cracked 3. Makes sense?

I think that's an excellent guess.  Just like the US conference this will end up being temporary and the march downward will resume once the dust settles in the next few days.

Try to rationilze why you were dead wrong all you like. How does the egg feel on your face?
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November 30, 2011, 10:17:31 PM
 #1617

I'm guessing some people at the bitcoin conference decided to invest a little money. They triggered EUR transfers to mtgox on monday and now the money is available to spend on BTC. That's why we cracked 3. Makes sense?

I think that's an excellent guess.  Just like the US conference this will end up being temporary and the march downward will resume once the dust settles in the next few days.

wrong again. no two events work the same way.  more likely, this conference will result in a sustained price rise beyond your expectations.  the general economy indicates that as well.
molecular
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December 01, 2011, 01:27:01 AM
 #1618

I'm guessing some people at the bitcoin conference decided to invest a little money. They triggered EUR transfers to mtgox on monday and now the money is available to spend on BTC. That's why we cracked 3. Makes sense?

I think that's an excellent guess.  Just like the US conference this will end up being temporary and the march downward will resume once the dust settles in the next few days.

wrong again. no two events work the same way.  more likely, this conference will result in a sustained price rise beyond your expectations.  the general economy indicates that as well.

I'm with cypherdocs sentiment.

I'm not sure why this song popped into my head: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0irL1M15DH8

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old_engineer
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December 01, 2011, 02:59:17 AM
 #1619

I'm guessing some people at the bitcoin conference decided to invest a little money. They triggered EUR transfers to mtgox on monday and now the money is available to spend on BTC. That's why we cracked 3. Makes sense?

I think that's an excellent guess.  Just like the US conference this will end up being temporary and the march downward will resume once the dust settles in the next few days.
Well, you've got to admit this is all better news than this summer with Senators calling for the outlawing of bitcoin, the Mt. Gox crash hack & shutdown, and mybitcoin's disappearance.

Personally, I don't care if bitcoin becomes the default world currency or not, which seems highly unlikely. A small bit part in the world economy is good enough for me.  One day, I want to see a sign like this:

"We accept Cash, check, credit card (VISA, MC, Discover, American Express), Travelers Cheque, PayPal, Dwolla, and Bitcoin"

Speaking of which, I'm guessing mtgox will rebrand itself with a better name that could be included in the above list, and won't make users laugh when they learn what it stands for.  Hmm... perhaps that's tomorrow's announcement?
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December 01, 2011, 03:01:46 AM
 #1620

I'm guessing some people at the bitcoin conference decided to invest a little money. They triggered EUR transfers to mtgox on monday and now the money is available to spend on BTC. That's why we cracked 3. Makes sense?

I think that's an excellent guess.  Just like the US conference this will end up being temporary and the march downward will resume once the dust settles in the next few days.
Well, you've got to admit this is all better news than this summer with Senators calling for the outlawing of bitcoin, the Mt. Gox crash hack & shutdown, and mybitcoin's disappearance.

Personally, I don't care if bitcoin becomes the default world currency or not, which seems highly unlikely. A small bit part in the world economy is good enough for me.  One day, I want to see a sign like this:

"We accept Cash, check, credit card (VISA, MC, Discover, American Express), Travelers Cheque, PayPal, Dwolla, and Bitcoin"

Speaking of which, I'm guessing mtgox will rebrand itself with a better name that could be included in the above list, and won't make users laugh when they learn what it stands for.  Hmm... perhaps that's tomorrow's announcement?

Whats so funny about a Magical Tux? Its deadly serious!  Cheesy
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