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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509207 times)
kokjo
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December 07, 2011, 10:23:22 AM
 #1641

it goes up, unless it goes down?

No no, you got it all wrong. It goes up, unless it happens to go below a certain minimum. This is not foretelling, this is analysis.
potato/potato. the only thing that S3052 can predict that i don't, is the tripping points..

And your irony detection is apparently as good as your tripping point prediction Wink
i dont know how i should reply to that, with out making myself look stupid...

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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zby
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December 07, 2011, 11:22:09 AM
 #1642

For me it seems more likely that we are now in the corrective wave and that it will take another 2-3 days before we resume the main up trend.

Right, and a typical corrective pattern would see another drop to about $2.6 as we saw 4 Dec, before continuing the upward trend.

Does not look like that any more - or does it?
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December 07, 2011, 01:49:19 PM
 #1643

potato/potato. the only thing that S3052 can predict that i don't, is the tripping points..

Do I read this right? The only thing you don't predict are the tops and the bottoms, but what? you can see the trends after they've begun? Following the good 'ole buy high sell low strategy? If that's work'n for you, keep it up.

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kokjo
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December 07, 2011, 03:50:34 PM
 #1644

potato/potato. the only thing that S3052 can predict that i don't, is the tripping points..

Do I read this right? The only thing you don't predict are the tops and the bottoms, but what? you can see the trends after they've begun? Following the good 'ole buy high sell low strategy? If that's work'n for you, keep it up.
mostly. its more like a buy middel, sell middel strategy.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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December 08, 2011, 07:43:13 PM
 #1645

We have just issued a new bitcoin chart and bitcoin price forecast to subcribers

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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molecular
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December 08, 2011, 09:29:23 PM
 #1646

We have just issued a new bitcoin chart and bitcoin price forecast to subcribers

translation for non-subcribers: something will happen soonish.

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jojkaart
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December 08, 2011, 09:30:53 PM
 #1647

We have just issued a new bitcoin chart and bitcoin price forecast to subcribers

translation for non-subcribers: something will happen soonish.

Actually, it's just the scheduled weekly report. Happens around the same time every week.
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December 08, 2011, 09:43:28 PM
 #1648

We have just issued a new bitcoin chart and bitcoin price forecast to subcribers

translation for non-subcribers: something will happen soonish.

Actually, it's just the scheduled weekly report. Happens around the same time every week.

PREDICTION:  There will be a day next week with a vowel in its name.

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December 10, 2011, 06:44:55 PM
 #1649

New Stock market outlook: 2012 will bring the crash in the stock market // see here: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/stocks-metals-etc.html

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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December 10, 2011, 10:32:08 PM
 #1650

New Stock market outlook: 2012 will bring the crash in the stock market // see here: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/stocks-metals-etc.html

I find the most compelling argument against this eventuality is that there is still a chance that it could transpire in 2011.


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December 11, 2011, 12:33:16 AM
 #1651

New Stock market outlook: 2012 will bring the crash in the stock market // see here: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/stocks-metals-etc.html

I find the most compelling argument against this eventuality is that there is still a chance that it could transpire in 2011.



So the most compelling argument against it is just "for it, quicker"?  Brilliant!

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tvbcof
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December 11, 2011, 02:55:04 AM
 #1652

New Stock market outlook: 2012 will bring the crash in the stock market // see here: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/stocks-metals-etc.html
I find the most compelling argument against this eventuality is that there is still a chance that it could transpire in 2011.
So the most compelling argument against it is just "for it, quicker"?

Yes.  I find it more likely that there will be a crack-up before 1/1/2012 than after 12/31/2012.

Brilliant!

Thanks!


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December 11, 2011, 11:36:41 AM
 #1653

New Stock market outlook: 2012 will bring the crash in the stock market // see here: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/stocks-metals-etc.html

I find the most compelling argument against this eventuality is that there is still a chance that it could transpire in 2011.



It is entirely possible that the downturn starts before xmas. Almost everyone expects a Santa rally, perhaps optimism is too high for this to materialize.

But anyway, if the plunge protection team (PPT) in the US is successful again to spark a Santa rally, in January this will be completely retraced.

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BTCurious
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December 11, 2011, 11:53:45 AM
 #1654

Do changes in the stockmarket change the bitcoin price yet? Or are they still mostly uncorrelated?

S3052
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December 11, 2011, 01:15:18 PM
 #1655

Overall, there is probably not a strong correlation.

At the same time, in case many big players in the bitcoin market are also heavily invested in the stock market and other risky assets, when all these crash (which I believe will happen big time), then they may also need to convert BTC back to cash to compensate.

But as said, this is a small fraction of the players.

And even more likely, there can be huge money inflows from investors who abandon the stock market and precious metals when they see that BTC is more promising.

I.e. bitcoin prices have mid term upside back to the all time highs, which can be a 10x increase. Just an example. They wont get those returns with Gold, Silver, stocks.

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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zby
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December 11, 2011, 03:23:43 PM
 #1656

For me it seems more likely that we are now in the corrective wave and that it will take another 2-3 days before we resume the main up trend.

Right, and a typical corrective pattern would see another drop to about $2.6 as we saw 4 Dec, before continuing the upward trend.

Did not happen - how do you interpret this?  The bid walls stopped the C down wave and now we are back in the main up trend (and more precisely in the third wave of it)?
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December 11, 2011, 04:47:48 PM
 #1657

zby and others:

this is exactly the reason why I do not count the minor subwaves. the risk for error is too high.

I have focused more on the bigger picture which told me that the likelihood is very high that we will enter a major rally.

I think we are in the wave 3 up now which will be much stronger than wave 1 (and wave 1 was +56% !!!)

Some people may be surprised if BTCUSD slices through 4 $ like butter.

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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fastandfurious
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December 11, 2011, 04:49:11 PM
 #1658

zby and others:

this is exactly the reason why I do not count the minor subwaves. the risk for error is too high.

I have focused more on the bigger picture which told me that the likelihood is very high that we will enter a major rally.

I think we are in the wave 3 up now which will be much stronger than wave 1 (and wave 1 was +56% !!!)

Some people may be surprised if BTCUSD slices through 4 $ like butter.


Are you going for a pump and dump? Smiley
ineededausername
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December 11, 2011, 05:28:36 PM
 #1659

zby and others:

this is exactly the reason why I do not count the minor subwaves. the risk for error is too high.

I have focused more on the bigger picture which told me that the likelihood is very high that we will enter a major rally.

I think we are in the wave 3 up now which will be much stronger than wave 1 (and wave 1 was +56% !!!)

Some people may be surprised if BTCUSD slices through 4 $ like butter.


Do you mean three-digit prices in 2012?

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netrin
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December 11, 2011, 06:07:54 PM
 #1660

Right, and a typical corrective pattern would see another drop to about $2.6 as we saw 4 Dec, before continuing the upward trend.

Did not happen - how do you interpret this?  The bid walls stopped the C down wave and now we are back in the main up trend (and more precisely in the third wave of it)?

"Shit happens"

I have to agree with S3052. Wave movements smaller than Mt. Gox spreads are as informative as quantum noise. If you've got time, there's a long discussion regarding the December counts, otherwise to summarize, I counted five regressive counts 3 December, and expected wave iv to continue bouncing. I was wrong.

My count places bitcoin in a third of the fifth today based on strictly valid waves since $2. It depends on which scales you trust most. At the moment, I don't trust any of them. Smiley



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