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Author Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com  (Read 3011632 times)
Anenome5
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September 15, 2013, 06:16:13 PM
 #9401

...
Now there's several good reasons why the difficulty will -not- get to 7 billion with the price of bitcoin at $125. There's ROI to think about, the cost of hardware must be amortized in, which means the difficulty is actually very likely to level off at more around 2 billion or less.
...

You're ignoring that:

1.  Miners pre-order their gear months in advance, so the gear ordered today is *locked in* -- it will mine even if it makes pennies over power cost.
I'm not ignoring that. I assume people have pulled back on their mining equipment orders in the last months as diff skyrocketed. If I were looking to buy today, I wouldn't.

2.  People are bad at math -- they will continue to come up with "but bitcoin will be worth moar" arguments & mine at a loss.
I don't think that's as widespread as you think. People with real money tend to do their due diligence, or else are quickly stripped of capital.

3.  Even when people are given a chance at a refund (the case with KNC?), they don't use it -- even when all evidence tells them to do so.  Some yet unnamed gambler's fallacy, i guess.
4.  People bought & are still buying USB miners -- case in point.
When the cost is a few $10 bills, no one cares that much if they make money. I look at that as the chewing gum of ASICs. You never need a reason to chew gum. But a Jupiter is a 6 course meal.

Democracy is the original 51% attack.
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September 15, 2013, 06:17:52 PM
 #9402

Maybe this is just too advanced for some...

But thought It might make someone smile... Cheesy


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Anenome5
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September 15, 2013, 06:20:56 PM
 #9403

7 billion is the upper limit of difficulty at a $125 price.

You wish!

You seem to think hardware prices will remain steady, in reality they will drop as fast as difficulty shoots up. Cointerra preorders are already being discounted at a rate of 50% per month now, not surprisingly perfectly in tune with D doubling per month,  and thats not going to stop until marginal production cost approaches mining profitability per TH.

The latter is easy to calculate (I went with cointerra's specs), but the question is, how much does it cost to make more 28nm asics ? I did the math in another thread given a $5000 price tag per 28nm wafer  (generous) and 2-3x cost for stuff like testing, packaging, PCBs and vendor markup, and it  results in a difficulty somewhere between 100 and 200 billion at todays BTC exchange rate and with EU electricity prices. Thats a ballpark figure, it may end up being half that or double that, but not 1/15th of that, no way.

I cant predict how fast we will reach those levels, it could be many years,  but the only thing limiting that is the ability of all asic vendors combined to produce and ship their products. There is no other limit. Considering the amount of vendors and the fact that at least some of them will be able to manage a supply chain better than BFL, I wouldnt be too surprised to see this happen in less than two years.
At 100 or 200 billion difficulty, the price of bitcoin would probably have to be a few thousand dollars to cover electricity costs. That's why it can't go that high. Even Cointerra miners aren't that efficient.

Democracy is the original 51% attack.
Anenome5
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September 15, 2013, 06:23:20 PM
 #9404

Maybe this is just too advanced for some...

But thought It might make someone smile... Cheesy
What wire gauge are you using, about 14?

Democracy is the original 51% attack.
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September 15, 2013, 06:30:58 PM
 #9405

...
Now there's several good reasons why the difficulty will -not- get to 7 billion with the price of bitcoin at $125. There's ROI to think about, the cost of hardware must be amortized in, which means the difficulty is actually very likely to level off at more around 2 billion or less.
...

You're ignoring that:

1.  Miners pre-order their gear months in advance, so the gear ordered today is *locked in* -- it will mine even if it makes pennies over power cost.
I'm not ignoring that. I assume people have pulled back on their mining equipment orders in the last months as diff skyrocketed. If I were looking to buy today, I wouldn't.

It's hard to agree with your logic when you yourself, faced with a decision to pull back your order, chose not to.  Because you think that *others* (who are more rational?) would Sad

Quote
2.  People are bad at math -- they will continue to come up with "but bitcoin will be worth moar" arguments & mine at a loss.
I don't think that's as widespread as you think. People with real money tend to do their due diligence, or else are quickly stripped of capital.

They're being "stripped of capital" even as we speak.  We're hopelessly temporal, even parting of fools and their money takes time.

Quote
3.  Even when people are given a chance at a refund (the case with KNC?), they don't use it -- even when all evidence tells them to do so.  Some yet unnamed gambler's fallacy, i guess.
4.  People bought & are still buying USB miners -- case in point.
When the cost is a few $10 bills, no one cares that much if they make money. I look at that as the chewing gum of ASICs. You never need a reason to chew gum. But a Jupiter is a 6 course meal.

A Jupiter may turn out to be a 6-course meal, i'm just not sure for whom.  

Nevertheless, you haven't responded to the main issue -- why do you think the people who are willing to send money to internet strangers are going to change their ways & pull back their orders, even though most ASIC companies make it plain that they'll point fingers and laugh if you ask for a refund?
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September 15, 2013, 06:32:46 PM
 #9406

At 100 or 200 billion difficulty, the price of bitcoin would probably have to be a few thousand dollars to cover electricity costs. That's why it can't go that high. Even Cointerra miners aren't that efficient.

Using cointerra's number,  at 100B difficulty, using todays BTC exchange rate, maximum electricity price for operational profitability is ~$0.06/KWH
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/ffa2bc17c6

I admit remembering wrong, and I thought I used 0.15, but that price is still within reach of many industrial miners.
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September 15, 2013, 06:47:04 PM
 #9407


 Did anyone made the joke about 'swedish' asic miners comes in parts and you have to build them yourself because it is 'cheaper' that way?

If they sell chips alone only, it could be done...

Well, the joke is you still have to supply your own PSU. And not only that, you'll also need to supply your own power supply on switch since the miner won't do it itself, apparently.
Wouldn't a power supply tester with an on/off button be a nice, clean version of this? e.g. http://dx.com/p/pc-computer-atx-power-supply-tester-with-on-off-switch-black-132273



Nice suggestion and available for $5 on Amazon. Multi-use items = win

I have something similar but it doesn't stay on.  It turns off once you release the "on" button.  And from what I've read, the circuitry in these devices isn't really meant for constant power and will most likely fail... or worse... burn down your house.
That's good to know Undecided Back to the reliable but non-beeping paperclip solution I guess.

"I am not The Avenger"
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September 15, 2013, 07:02:23 PM
 #9408

For the record, it's late September in some places. Looks like early September is down the tubes.
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September 15, 2013, 07:07:45 PM
 #9409

For the record, it's late September in some places. Looks like early September is down the tubes.

ok....if you classify late september at the 16th......which is mid september....
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September 15, 2013, 07:07:50 PM
 #9410

For the record, it's late September in some places. Looks like early September is down the tubes.

It's only half September, but let's hope for good news this week!

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September 15, 2013, 07:30:55 PM
 #9411


 Did anyone made the joke about 'swedish' asic miners comes in parts and you have to build them yourself because it is 'cheaper' that way?

If they sell chips alone only, it could be done...

Well, the joke is you still have to supply your own PSU. And not only that, you'll also need to supply your own power supply on switch since the miner won't do it itself, apparently.
Wouldn't a power supply tester with an on/off button be a nice, clean version of this? e.g. http://dx.com/p/pc-computer-atx-power-supply-tester-with-on-off-switch-black-132273



Nice suggestion and available for $5 on Amazon. Multi-use items = win
It'll even beep when you switch it on - try getting a paperclip to do that  Grin

I like that there's a device like this, but I have to say, paperclip for the win. It's free for most, they won't fall out, and.. there's no further investment lol.

When the cost is a few $10 bills, no one cares that much if they make money. I look at that as the chewing gum of ASICs. You never need a reason to chew gum. But a Jupiter is a 6 course meal.

I don't think you understand the math game behind difficulty and the human nature of bitcoining. Others have pretty much pointed out what I would've.

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September 15, 2013, 07:51:25 PM
 #9412

Just to be safe, could they please burn mine in for a week or ten days before shipping?



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September 15, 2013, 07:52:48 PM
 #9413

Just to be safe, could they please burn mine in for a week or ten days before shipping?

Funniest line of the week!   Grin
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September 15, 2013, 08:00:02 PM
 #9414

Just to be safe, could they please burn mine in for a week or ten days before shipping?

Funniest line of the week!   Grin

I imagine BFL would say they will.



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September 15, 2013, 08:25:51 PM
 #9415

The Genesis Block is garbage... no your math sucks... yes but chip manufacturers will do such and such.... but no the difficulty will not... you're forgetting that...  welcome to my ignore list... no wait what about the VAT?...  yes but blah blah blah...

If you're part of the group that have orders and will not be asking for a refund ever, just ignore everyone and sit tight.
If you're part of the group that don't have orders/asked/got refund, don't waste your time in this particular thread no one will listen to you.

... wait ... don't do that...

FIGHT!!! FIGHT!!! FIGHT!!!



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Mining for the hell of it.


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September 15, 2013, 08:33:24 PM
 #9416

No don't listen to RChevalier go and ask for a refund... It will just let me get my miner sooner.  Grin

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September 15, 2013, 08:47:04 PM
 #9417

No they didn't they paid for a product priced in dollars

no. I paid over 85BTC for Jupiter (with VAT and shipping) via BitPay. I also paid for PSU (220$). so now I have to mine at least 85BTC to get my investment back + pay for electricity (0.25$/kW).

do you think that I will get my BTC back and earn something, if I will start mining last day of September? You have got here answer for every question, so please answer this.) thanks.

Hi Xialla, I'm not entirely sure why anyone here would pre-order a product that mints Bitcoins with Bitcoins when the entire premise behind supporting the currency is the belief that overtime Bitcoins value will increase, which to be fair in the past three months it has gradually (after the media hype caused speculators to jump in and out). Furthermore you know my stance on pre-orders and secure payment choices. So personally I feel 85BTC was worth more to me three months ago than $7k +VAT.

In addition, why would you pay in BTC when you would have to pay VAT which could be avoided by registering yourself as a business, and having the mining equipment as a legitimate hardware expense, and the VAT on electricity back as a legitimate running cost?! It makes no sense. In essense I just wouldn't have paid for the equipment in BTC. Will you make $7k's worth of BTC back over time before the product becomes more expensive to run than it mines? I confidently think so, but no one can foresee the price of BTC in the future. Will it mine 85BTC? I cannot say, but based on the fact the compounding of network hashrate just cannot keep multiplying the way the calculator alludes to, month in, month out through to May, or June when the unit would supposedly be less profitable to run than the electricity costs (should BTC remain stable)

The Genesis Block calc is way out of touch with reality. There will be a large explosion in hashrate when KnC deliver, after which it will plateau before any additional increases by KnC and any other manufacturers when/if they are successful will create spkies and plateaus, just not have the same substantial effect as the first 28nm shipment unless they can continuously double the network which they won't. Thus it cannot be an exponential curve. I've written to the guys behind the Genesis Block about this, and they replied agreeing with me, I suggested some improvements and they said they would make them, but had other more pressing issues currently. My gut feeling is they won't. I believe they like the confusion it causes, maybe it's the attention and traffic to the site, maybe they are miners wanting to spook people. I think if BTC price holds ~$4k will be made back before the next batch ships. So that's around 32BTC. I don't see Hashfast delivering before KnC's next shipment, their T&Cs reflect that, and even if they paid primo money to TSMC, unless they lied about when they taped out, then they definitively are lying about their 'anticipated' 20-30th Oct delivery they used to secure funds, which is fraud.

That said if you paid by dollars and the BTC price continues a steady increase then you would have made your return faster than paying by BTC. Fact. But you are not buying an investment, you are buying a machine that creates Bitcoins, by a manufacturer that is capable of building a 28nm chip faster, and more competently than the rest, by not deceiving it's customer base with best case simulatied statistics.

If you are bullish on the long term value in BTC rising, as I am, then I just wouldn't tie any of your BTC up for a product that takes several months to deliver as you will always end up paying more than the fiat value equivalent was at the time of purchase.

Again you cannot blame KnC or raise vocal discontent based on your own desicions; wise, or mistaken.

Good, or bad, they were yours to make, and no one twisted your arm. Wink

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September 15, 2013, 09:01:02 PM
 #9418

Yeah I don't prescribe to this "you could have bought the equivalent of xx btc" bullcrap either.

When I bought mine I paid with a credit card to give myself the guaranty they would deliver or I would get my money back. (Plus about 6k airmiles.)
I doubt I would have went out of my way and dropped $4100 into more bitcoins at that time but buying an exciting new mining product was a no brainer for me.

So, it isn't the same as saying you could have bought and held and made more money...not at all.

This is where simple economics fails us. Satisfaction per economic unit is higher buying a mining device than it is simply buying more bitcoins.

In some peoples case it is also easier to buy a mining device than to buy bitcoins...something else to think about.


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September 15, 2013, 09:05:11 PM
 #9419

No they didn't they paid for a product priced in dollars

no. I paid over 85BTC for Jupiter (with VAT and shipping) via BitPay. I also paid for PSU (220$). so now I have to mine at least 85BTC to get my investment back + pay for electricity (0.25$/kW).

do you think that I will get my BTC back and earn something, if I will start mining last day of September? You have got here answer for every question, so please answer this.) thanks.

Hi Xialla, I'm not entirely sure why anyone here would pre-order a product that mints Bitcoins with Bitcoins when the entire premise behind supporting the currency is the belief that overtime Bitcoins value will increase, which to be fair in the past three months it has gradually (after the media hype caused speculators to jump in and out). Furthermore you know my stance on pre-orders and secure payment choices. So personally I feel 85BTC was worth more to me three months ago than $7k +VAT.

In addition, why would you pay in BTC when you would have to pay VAT which could be avoided by registering yourself as a business, and having the mining equipment as a legitimate hardware expense, and the VAT on electricity back as a legitimate running cost?! It makes no sense. In essense I just wouldn't have paid for the equipment in BTC. Will you make $7k's worth of BTC back over time before the product becomes more expensive to run than it mines? I confidently think so, but no one can foresee the price of BTC in the future. Will it mine 85BTC? I cannot say, but based on the fact the compounding of network hashrate just cannot keep multiplying the way the calculator alludes to, month in, month out through to May, or June when the unit would supposedly be less profitable to run than the electricity costs (should BTC remain stable)

The Genesis Block call is way out of touch with reality. There will be a large explosion in hashrate when KnC deliver, after which it will plateau before any additional increases by KnC and any other manufacturers when/if they are successful will create spkies and plateaus, just not have the same substantial effect as the first 28nm shipment unless they can continuously double the network which they won't. Thus it cannot be an exponential curve. I've written to the guys behind the Genesis Block about this, and they replied agreeing with me, I suggested some improvements and they said they would make them, but had other more pressing issues currently. My gut feeling is they won't. I believe they like the confusion it causes, maybe it's the attention and traffic to the site, maybe they are miners wanting to spook people. I think if BTC price holds ~$4k will be made back before the next batch ships. So that's around 32BTC. I don't see Hashfast delivering before KnC's next shipment, their T&Cs reflect that, and even if they paid primo money to TSMC, unless they lied about when they taped out, then they definitively are lying about their 'anticipated' 20-30th Oct delivery they used to secure funds, which is fraud.

That said if you paid by dollars and the BTC price continues a steady increase then you would have made your return faster than paying by BTC. Fact. But you are not buying an investment, you are buying a machine that creates Bitcoins, by a manufacturer that is capable of building a 28nm chip faster, and more competently than the rest, by not deceiving it's customer base with best case simulatied statistics.

If you are bullish on the long term value in BTC rising, as I am, then I just wouldn't tie any of your BTC up for a product that takes several months to deliver as you will always end up paying more than the fiat value equivalent was at the time of purchase.

Again you cannot blame KnC or raise vocal discontent based on your own desicions; wise, or mistaken.

Good, or bad, they were yours to make, and no one twisted your arm. Wink
I agree that as long as KNC delivers as advertised they are blameless as far as profitability of the machine.  The onus of determining whether their product was worth the money paid is on the consumer.

I'm not sure I get your whole buying in BTC or USD point though.  If you believe you should have held on to the purchase price worth of BTC rather than use it to buy the miner, then by that logic you also think it would have been better to also convert the USD price of the machine to BTC and hold it rather than spend it on the miner.  By tying up the money in pre-ordering a miner you are tying up the same value whether denominated in USD or BTC at time of purchase.
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September 15, 2013, 09:08:44 PM
 #9420

7 billion is the upper limit of difficulty at a $125 price.

You wish!

You seem to think hardware prices will remain steady, in reality they will drop as fast as difficulty shoots up. Cointerra preorders are already being discounted at a rate of 50% per month now, not surprisingly perfectly in tune with D doubling per month,  and thats not going to stop until marginal production cost approaches mining profitability per TH.

The latter is easy to calculate (I went with cointerra's specs), but the question is, how much does it cost to make more 28nm asics ? I did the math in another thread given a $5000 price tag per 28nm wafer  (generous) and 2-3x cost for stuff like testing, packaging, PCBs and vendor markup, and it  results in a difficulty somewhere between 100 and 200 billion at todays BTC exchange rate and with EU electricity prices. Thats a ballpark figure, it may end up being half that or double that, but not 1/15th of that, no way.

I cant predict how fast we will reach those levels, it could be many years,  but the only thing limiting that is the ability of all asic vendors combined to produce and ship their products. There is no other limit. Considering the amount of vendors and the fact that at least some of them will be able to manage a supply chain better than BFL, I wouldnt be too surprised to see this happen in less than two years.

The reason Cointerra are dropping their price like a stone is they have yet to raise enough capital to fund NRE and they are expected to tape out imminently. You have to pay for your NRE upfront to receive your tape out results.

Cointerra are stick between a rock, and a hard place, they are late to the party and this is their last ditch attempt to secure NRE costs for their 28nm ambition. They don't care what price they sell their chips at as much as just selling the damn things to cover NRE so they can produce more wafers and make less profit over a longer timeframe.

I do rate Cointerra for being honest about their delivery dates though, Hashfast are just outright lying. Neither company will produce the anticipated hashrates and power expectations they claim per chip though. Those are just simulated best case scenarios, and they will not reflect reality. That's not me taking a swipe, that's me being a realist, unless they are performing some ASIC voodoo. 28nm is 28nm, you can create 2TH chips if you want, the issue is powering and cooling the chip.

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