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Author Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com  (Read 3006429 times)
qiuness
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September 13, 2013, 02:03:11 PM
 #9241

looking at thegenesisblock i did some math and things are looking grim..wanted to know what you guys think about it.

Given facts:
- With an initial mining date of October
- Difficulty ~140 mil (now 110 + 30% over the next week)
- 1 Jupiter @ 400 MH/s
- BTC@140$

Results. This scenario with an increase of 77% until march next year will not break even!
Considering that in October we will most likely see 40-50%/11day increase since KNC is shipping, November and December mark the months of newcomers such as (CoinTerra and HashFEst)
The likelihood that the difficulty will taper off until march 2014 is next to 0.

Maybe i`m not seeing all the sides of the cube, but it is not looking good.
With BTC @ 180$ will have profited ~400$

=

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vesperwillow
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September 13, 2013, 02:14:00 PM
 #9242

Necroing the PSU discussion. I've been looking around and really like the pricing versus the stability on these:

http://www.jonnyguru.com/modules.php?name=NDReviews&op=Story4&reid=344

The 850 Watt version is at least as good but it would be interesting to hear about some OC options from KNC and how much extra power one could expect to need in case of a moderate OC.


I don't understand why folks don't simply get a really nice 1kw psu even if they only plan to use 800. It's a little bit more change, but what's a few dollars to ensure you have growth room, especially compared to the price of the miners?

This isn't a knock on you btw, I just keep seeing the PSU discussion.

looking at thegenesisblock i did some math and things are looking grim..wanted to know what you guys think about it.

Given facts:
- With an initial mining date of October
- Difficulty ~140 mil (now 110 + 30% over the next week)
- 1 Jupiter @ 400 MH/s
- BTC@140$

Results. This scenario with an increase of 77% until march next year will not break even!
Considering that in October we will most likely see 40-50%/11day increase since KNC is shipping, November and December mark the months of newcomers such as (CoinTerra and HashFEst)
The likelihood that the difficulty will taper off until march 2014 is next to 0.

Maybe i`m not seeing all the sides of the cube, but it is not looking good.
With BTC @ 180$ will have profited ~400$

I constantly run math, and while my heart is entwined with the KNC system, I have to say the math isn't showing promise for anyone getting machines after october. At least if you're looking for btc->usd roi. A better bet, using TGB calculations, is Cointerra's 2TH unit. The December $14k pricing and January $6k pricing are pretty much parallel to each other with regard to btc->usd roi.

This is why I'm on edge wondering if KNC will offer more hash power for the 1st quarter for less money. The price drop on the Jupiter was nice, but it's not enough.

The only other idea which comes to mind is leasing shares from the miners, to get 51-75% of your investment cost back to you up front. This would offload the burden.

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September 13, 2013, 02:27:34 PM
 #9243

I don't understand why folks don't simply get a really nice 1kw psu even if they only plan to use 800. It's a little bit more change, but what's a few dollars to ensure you have growth room, especially compared to the price of the miners?

This isn't a knock on you btw, I just keep seeing the PSU discussion.


I thought that the 850Watt was already giving lots of margin and you can grow with two excellent 500W PSUs instead of a really nice 1000W and get a stabler and safer setting (if one dies for example) for the same buck.  It is not that clear cut. That said notice the link I posted was a 1000W PSU, which, by the way, seems to have slightly worse stability in the tests than the 850 W version.

I agree with your assessment in profitability and the Cointerra 2TH units. I think the wildcard there is really how much KNC is willing to do for their customers, especially in terms of discounts or upgrade possibilities for second gen. So far Cointerra's statements seem to be slightly less caring about the existing customers than KNC which could tilt your "heart" towards sticking with KNC now and for second gen.

I guess we will begin to see how both companies unravel in that department with what KNC actually ends up delivering in September.    

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September 13, 2013, 02:44:54 PM
 #9244

For ideal efficiency you want no more than ~60% load on the PSU. So people are getting a 1,000 watt PSU to achieve that. 850w is adequate but not targeted towards efficiency, on a device that will be operating full bore, 24/7, it makes sense.

Also you could get two 500w PSUs and feed one to each side, but I wonder if you face an additional risk if one board is powered on before the others? Might that cause problems?

Democracy is the original 51% attack.
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September 13, 2013, 02:48:53 PM
 #9245

For ideal efficiency you want no more than ~60% load on the PSU. So people are getting a 1,000 watt PSU to achieve that. 850w is adequate but not targeted towards efficiency, on a device that will be operating full bore, 24/7, it makes sense.

Also you could get two 500w PSUs and feed one to each side, but I wonder if you face an additional risk if one board is powered on before the others? Might that cause problems?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170332.msg3124339#msg3124339

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September 13, 2013, 02:52:16 PM
 #9246

For ideal efficiency you want no more than ~60% load on the PSU. So people are getting a 1,000 watt PSU to achieve that. 850w is adequate but not targeted towards efficiency, on a device that will be operating full bore, 24/7, it makes sense.

Also you could get two 500w PSUs and feed one to each side, but I wonder if you face an additional risk if one board is powered on before the others? Might that cause problems?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170332.msg3124339#msg3124339



Thank you for beating me to that.. everytime I see someone post the "half load efficiency" stuff it makes my eyes twitch

btc_uzr
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September 13, 2013, 03:19:55 PM
 #9247

looking at thegenesisblock i did some math and things are looking grim..wanted to know what you guys think about it.

Given facts:
- With an initial mining date of October
- Difficulty ~140 mil (now 110 + 30% over the next week)
- 1 Jupiter @ 400 MH/s
- BTC@140$

Results. This scenario with an increase of 77% until march next year will not break even!
Considering that in October we will most likely see 40-50%/11day increase since KNC is shipping, November and December mark the months of newcomers such as (CoinTerra and HashFEst)
The likelihood that the difficulty will taper off until march 2014 is next to 0.

Maybe i`m not seeing all the sides of the cube, but it is not looking good.
With BTC @ 180$ will have profited ~400$

You should modify your calculations to match reality.

Let's say 26th is day1 [1] and diff is 140mil. KnC might deliver until 15th of October ~2-2.5PH [2], then assume that in this time frame blocks pass by fast until last KNC device is online (17th of October) and diff is finally adjusted to the according level of hashrate. So a possible total of upto 3,5PH/s results in diff of ~500M, maybe at October 20th in place. Then it will slab and stuck at this level I guess.

Maybe bitfury increases it a little further until end of October,  but not dramatically. Then I expect that it remains at this level it reaches at the end of October (maybe +10%) until KNC starts November delivery. Then next jump seems to be in December when vmc or others start delivery through out January and February [3]. Then KNC next generation appears in March [4].


[1] https://www.cloudhashing.com/frequently-asked-questions
  Cloudhashing ordered from KNC and their FAQ states "A2: We expect mining for September contracts to start by 26th September 2013 (...)"

[2] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.msg3125451#msg3125451

[3] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820

[4] https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-24
 "We will then release our new generation of devices, which will begin shipping in March 2014"

*edit:
-have forgotten November delivery from KNC, added some other thoughts as well
-added new srcs

!! File Complaints Against KnCMiner NOW !!
..and Thou shalt spread the coin in the name of cryptography for eternity
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September 13, 2013, 03:31:30 PM
 #9248

KNC setting up the datacentre:

That's Sam right there on the left:




Sam again:


If this post helped you and you feel generous you know what to do: 1P9tXFy9bVgzrfPGeV7F8np26ZtFdCCWvz
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September 13, 2013, 03:36:44 PM
 #9249

looking at thegenesisblock i did some math and things are looking grim..wanted to know what you guys think about it.

Given facts:
- With an initial mining date of October
- Difficulty ~140 mil (now 110 + 30% over the next week)
- 1 Jupiter @ 400 MH/s
- BTC@140$

Results. This scenario with an increase of 77% until march next year will not break even!
Considering that in October we will most likely see 40-50%/11day increase since KNC is shipping, November and December mark the months of newcomers such as (CoinTerra and HashFEst)
The likelihood that the difficulty will taper off until march 2014 is next to 0.

Maybe i`m not seeing all the sides of the cube, but it is not looking good.
With BTC @ 180$ will have profited ~400$
again with this bs...
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/9b3c1f63cb  
use this as a reference if you really want to calculate your earnings in dollar for the next 3 months. after that it won't work with this calculation anymore, but this is pretty much the worst case imo...
(notice the increased power cost for germany, another 1k for VAT, 250 psu and 150 shipping cost extra AND only 400 gh/s AND $ per btc at 100 AND a pretty much unlikely doubling of the hashrate from now to october)
NOW:
let's do the same with 500 gh/s and 850W (850 should be max. with OC (which would, again, be more gh/s)):
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/9dd2b831fc

I am actually more than willing to put my money where my mouth is if that stops this fucking stupid posts about roi shit. anyone interested can pm me for a nice little bet on roi of knc's jupiter delivered until mid october.

Who wants to be a billionaire? Me!
You could help Wink 1Dvja1RFCqxdnYRgjTntwGvdCeUisU4xp
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September 13, 2013, 03:36:55 PM
 #9250

They ought to give out one of those cooler master bags with each order....
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September 13, 2013, 03:41:58 PM
 #9251

looking at thegenesisblock i did some math and things are looking grim..wanted to know what you guys think about it.

Given facts:
- With an initial mining date of October
- Difficulty ~140 mil (now 110 + 30% over the next week)
- 1 Jupiter @ 400 MH/s
- BTC@140$

Results. This scenario with an increase of 77% until march next year will not break even!
Considering that in October we will most likely see 40-50%/11day increase since KNC is shipping, November and December mark the months of newcomers such as (CoinTerra and HashFEst)
The likelihood that the difficulty will taper off until march 2014 is next to 0.

Maybe i`m not seeing all the sides of the cube, but it is not looking good.
With BTC @ 180$ will have profited ~400$

I'm actually counting on difficulty to start tapering off for a while at around 2.201 Billion by February, and here is why.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0

The thread creator did a pretty good job of estimating the total worst case scenario based on all announced vendors which are suppose to come online and at what time and based off of this information, the genesis block looks to be accurate up until around mid February. I think this is an pretty accurate assessment but even with this bleak of an outlook, any KNC's delivered before Oct 15 should still make ROI (Albeit a low profit) or at-least get close to it.

The only possibilities it does not take into account is
1. Shadow corps which could theoretically exist that start dumping massive amounts of computing power into the network between now and December.
2. Failures by any of the other ASIC vendors to deliver on time.

Both of these would have a significant impact on ROI, however we just down know... I am betting at least one of KNC's competitors is going to be delayed.  

But as someone else also mentioned earlier on in the forum, by November they're will still be people willing to buy the hardware used. I personally depending on the outlook intend on selling my Jupiter's around the end of November and using those funds as my ROI/profit, which will then go into the next gen hardware around march.
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September 13, 2013, 03:43:54 PM
 #9252

Simple racks, but does the trick Smiley Great news.

Seem legit!

Psst.. Got Ether?
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September 13, 2013, 03:56:42 PM
 #9253

Simple racks, but does the trick Smiley Great news.

Seem legit!

+1
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September 13, 2013, 03:59:15 PM
 #9254

KNC setting up the datacentre:

That's Sam right there on the left:




Sam again:



BOXES OF FANS!!!!!!

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September 13, 2013, 03:59:47 PM
 #9255

God damn those pics. More people will be betting YES now. lol.

I want to win big here Sad
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September 13, 2013, 04:00:47 PM
 #9256

i wonder what psu model those are?

http://www.canadacomputers.com/product_info.php?cPath=33_443&item_id=061579
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September 13, 2013, 04:10:49 PM
 #9257

God damn those pics. More people will be betting YES now. lol.

I want to win big here Sad

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy  ROFL me too!
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September 13, 2013, 04:12:51 PM
 #9258

But as someone else also mentioned earlier on in the forum, by November they're will still be people willing to buy the hardware used. I personally depending on the outlook intend on selling my Jupiter's around the end of November and using those funds as my ROI/profit, which will then go into the next gen hardware around march.


For how much? Grin

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September 13, 2013, 04:17:05 PM
 #9259


Lol, very much the same model I posted earlier. Very stable!



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September 13, 2013, 04:18:14 PM
 #9260

No you clearly have no idea what you are talking about. It is illegal to mention the word 'investment', or promise a 'return on investment' and then make that part of your terms of sale via the use of a clickwrap when you are an unregulated financial service.

Bullshit.  In order for something to be illegal in the U.S, there needs to be a law that says it's illegal. What law says it's illegal to say "investment" or "return on investment"

Earlier you were saying it was fraudulent to buy something with a credit card with the intention of canceling the order, which is clearly bonkers.

Quote
"Please read this carefully, as with all things Bitcoin one should treat this as an investment and make the decision best for you based on the liquid-able funds available at the moment when placing an order.

I accept the terms and the potential risks involved with placing an order."


If you want to hold and transmit money in any way you will need to comply with money transmitter laws. Bitcoin has been recognised as a currency on a Federal level. Bitsyncom has claimed to offer an investment by which they hold your funds and offer a return over a given period and then made you click to agree to those terms.

To compound this, there is the shadiness of the fact they pre-mined and purposely delayed equipment with a premeditated knowledge of the effect on promised returns, this is known and provable and had a direct detrimental effect on their customers 'investment', along with the allegations by their own staff they were in possession of significant numbers of chips from the end of June, before dropping all contact for a couple of months until legal action was threatened.

There is a significant difference between the above and what they should have stuck to, i.e. they manufacture a machine that spits Bitcoins, that is all the machine does, and is not priced on a return on investment.

Again, what you are saying is totally insane.  FinCEN SPECIFICALLY EXCLUDED people who SOLD PRODUCTS WITH BITCOINS from needing to register as money transmitters or needing to comply with KYC.   It's not illegal to sell stuff with bitcoin in the U.S without registering as a money transmitter.

Secondly, bitcoin isn't even recognized as a currency at the federal level, a single judge in one case said it could be money regarding the PirateAt40 case.  That only applies to that single case, and if upheld on appeal at the circuit level would only apply to the circuit (a group of states).

Pirate would have to appeal the case all the way to the supreme court and lose in order for that ruling to be the official law of the land.

You don't live in the U.S. and you clearly do not understand how the US legal system works, or what the laws actually say.

Obviously if Yifu refused refunds and never delivered the products, he would be likely be sued and possibly lose.  However, giving the refunds it's unlikely a lawsuit would be successful, and if it was it could only be for the cost of the boards, etc that people purchased in anticipation of the chips.

Claiming that Avalon units were financial instruments simply because he used the word 'investment' or "ROI" is insane.  People use the word investment all the time when advertising products. Things like awnings or clearcoat for your car are advertised as "great investments"

If you think it's illegal in the us to use the word "investment" when advertising a product then show me the specific chapter and paragraph in the legal code that makes it illegal.  If you can't find it, then you can't make that claim, period.

Also, you seem to be getting more and more shrill lately. I have no idea why you're hammering on this bizarre legal theory about Avalon but it's definitely completely insane.

Quote

Oh shit, better lock that guy up!

Quote

OMG THAT GUY IS SELLING COMICS AND CALLING THEM INVESTMENTS, AND EVEN USING NUMBERS!? HOW IS THIS MONSTER NOT IN JAIL!??!!?

Seriously dude you seem to have lost your mind.

If it was illegal, there would be a specific law that said it was illegal.  Of course, there isn't, because it's obviously not.

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