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Author Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com  (Read 3007604 times)
Ytterbium
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September 15, 2013, 03:44:11 PM
 #9381

If they sell chips alone only, it could be done...

Well, the joke is you still have to supply your own PSU. And not only that, you'll also need to supply your own power supply on switch since the miner won't do it itself, apparently.



Oh please for the love of all that is holy just don't!!!  The alternative:



Uh... just to be clear that's just some pic I found on the internet.

I'm hoping KnC includes something in the box, they said they were looking for a solution.

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September 15, 2013, 03:44:20 PM
 #9382

I see the emotions rising with hashrate a few posts previous.  Some days ago someone supposed that the large commercial farms would die off as they have payroll added to expenses.  I don't see that lowering the hashrate.  They go out of business, the owners take the miners home or auction them off, either way they'll be back online hashing.



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Ytterbium
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September 15, 2013, 03:47:49 PM
 #9383

I see the emotions rising with hashrate a few posts previous.  Some days ago someone supposed that the large commercial farms would die off as they have payroll added to expenses.  I don't see that lowering the hashrate.  They go out of business, the owners take the miners home or auction them off, either way they'll be back online hashing.

They would only need payroll to expand. Simply keeping the systems running would pretty much be free.

I think we'll see something like the plateu we saw with GPU mining.  Large operations that start soon will easily cover the initial investment in the short run, and in the long run be marginally profitable to operate.

But, once you hit a certain threshold, it'll still be profitable to continue to mine, but it won't be profitable for new entrants to get started, or even for existing places to expand.

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September 15, 2013, 04:10:27 PM
 #9384


 Did anyone made the joke about 'swedish' asic miners comes in parts and you have to build them yourself because it is 'cheaper' that way?

If they sell chips alone only, it could be done...

Well, the joke is you still have to supply your own PSU. And not only that, you'll also need to supply your own power supply on switch since the miner won't do it itself, apparently.
Wouldn't a power supply tester with an on/off button be a nice, clean version of this? e.g. http://dx.com/p/pc-computer-atx-power-supply-tester-with-on-off-switch-black-132273



Nice suggestion and available for $5 on Amazon. Multi-use items = win

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September 15, 2013, 04:17:52 PM
 #9385

There's an easy way to tell where the difficulty rate should end up depending on the current price of bitcoin needed to cover electricity costs.

The "natural" position for the difficulty to come to a rest at, as we know, is at a place where the proceeds from mining is just over the cost of electricity needed to mine.

So, look at the difficulty per month that corresponds to the current price of bitcoin and that's the upper limit of difficulty, realistically.

So here I have a readout. 53 BTC is the cost of one Jupiter paid the first week when Bitcoin was $130, and hosting was another 22 BTC--75 total, but you have to remember you're not paying for electricity costs anymore so set that to zero, and 520 gh/s is the 30% improvement over 400 they mentioned (and that's probably still low).



A Jupiter, depending on local power costs, costs between $50 and $100 a month to run. So if the price of bitcoin is $125 as it is right now, then we can mine profitably until ~1 btc a month is generated.

Which on that image is between April and May of next year, assuming it's close to right (which is questionable).

But notice the difficulty on the left that corresponds to that mining amount: 7 billion difficulty.

7 billion is the upper limit of difficulty at a $125 price.

Now there's several good reasons why the difficulty will -not- get to 7 billion with the price of bitcoin at $125. There's ROI to think about, the cost of hardware must be amortized in, which means the difficulty is actually very likely to level off at more around 2 billion or less.

At 1 billion we're making 6 btc a month, at 2 billion it's 3 per month. Not bad. We will have long since achieved positive ROI.

If the price of bitcoin remains at less than $200 next year, we will be cemented in place as the new mining kings. Because, having run the difficulty up to its natural place, there's not enough low-hanging rapid profit left for people to invest in miners. Too risky, not enough quick profit.

We're going to ROI in a month and change. Anyone buying a miner in January might have to wait a year to ROI, if they ever can achieve it at all.

Now, all bets are off if bitcoin runs up to $1,000 next year, and then everyone buying miners now will look like a genius, and here's the scary and hard to even think about part--we won't even mind making only a few tenths of a bitcoin per month at that point, because that will be a couple hundred dollars.

And the mining game will start all over again Smiley

March 2014, here we come.


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September 15, 2013, 04:22:34 PM
 #9386

I wish KnC could definitively tell us what the hashrate of the miners will be.

Based on the KnC forum comments about the chip timeframe, September isn't sounding as likely right now...
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September 15, 2013, 04:24:33 PM
 #9387

I wish KnC could definitively tell us what the hashrate of the miners will be.

Based on the KnC forum comments about the chip timeframe, September isn't sounding as likely right now...

As soon as they have chips in hand, I'm sure they will let us know.
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September 15, 2013, 04:25:48 PM
 #9388

March 2014, 30 000Th/s network, i dont think so….

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September 15, 2013, 04:45:43 PM
 #9389

Amusing how a delivery date of Nov 1st seems to be considered a fail, a day late...sure as shit beats a year late Smiley Mid Oct deliveries are looking likely though. Within two weeks doesn't mean after two weeks either...could be next or even this week. Remember ..under promise, over deliver?
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September 15, 2013, 04:53:31 PM
 #9390

No they didn't they paid for a product priced in dollars

no. I paid over 85BTC for Jupiter (with VAT and shipping) via BitPay. I also paid for PSU (220$). so now I have to mine at least 85BTC to get my investment back + pay for electricity (0.25$/kW).

do you think that I will get my BTC back and earn something, if I will start mining last day of September? You have got here answer for every question, so please answer this.) thanks.

Unfortunately, no way...
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September 15, 2013, 05:02:57 PM
 #9391

...
Now there's several good reasons why the difficulty will -not- get to 7 billion with the price of bitcoin at $125. There's ROI to think about, the cost of hardware must be amortized in, which means the difficulty is actually very likely to level off at more around 2 billion or less.
...

You're ignoring that:

1.  Miners pre-order their gear months in advance, so the gear ordered today is *locked in* -- it will mine even if it makes pennies over power cost.
2.  People are bad at math -- they will continue to come up with "but bitcoin will be worth moar" arguments & mine at a loss.
3.  Even when people are given a chance at a refund (the case with KNC?), they don't use it -- even when all evidence tells them to do so.  Some yet unnamed gambler's fallacy, i guess.
4.  People bought & are still buying USB miners -- case in point.
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September 15, 2013, 05:19:47 PM
 #9392

So here I have a readout. 53 BTC is the cost of one Jupiter paid the first week when Bitcoin was $130, and hosting was another 22 BTC--75 total

*preorders starts 3/6 (source: https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-12 and mail in my outlook)
*during preorders start was price ~120$/BTC (source: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg150zczsg2013-06-03zeg2013-06-09ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv)

*preorders closing 10/6 (source: https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-17)
*during preorders stars was price ~100$/BTC (source: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg150zczsg2013-06-03zeg2013-06-09ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv)

so jupiter costs from ~58.3BTC to ~70BTC (if you paid lasts days of preorder window) (VAT + shipping excluded, but most of EU guys like me should multiply by 1.2 - so 70BTC - 84BTC) + 160$ shipping + ~200$ for PSU (I'm to lazy count real price of hosting)

another point is hashrate of Jupiter. according to their website is expected hashrate 400Gh/s (source: https://www.kncminer.com/products/jupiter), so please try to calculate with confirmed official values. (I know, that is expectation of 30% raise but you can't take it as fact)

regarding genesis calculation: not sure how it works, but I think that if you pick current month (September in this case), it is calculated like you just start mining. calculation is also tricky in another fact - it is based on 100% uptime (not possible) and with constant diff increase. because during end of September/first mid of October lot of guys receive their ASIC (Bitfury, KNC), diff increase will be much higher than is now and will grow really faster - just because new vendors, November batch of Jupiters, etc.

don't get me wrong, I'm on same boat like you with preorder, but your numbers are from wet dream or you don't want to admit cruel reality.
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September 15, 2013, 05:20:49 PM
 #9393

There are many things that can be done I think if you don't believe you'll be ROI.

1.Ask KNC to place you in the beginning pre-orders for second gen. hardware if possible instead of cancelling.

2.Ask for a refund!

3.Sell it off.

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September 15, 2013, 05:23:53 PM
 #9394


 Did anyone made the joke about 'swedish' asic miners comes in parts and you have to build them yourself because it is 'cheaper' that way?

If they sell chips alone only, it could be done...

Well, the joke is you still have to supply your own PSU. And not only that, you'll also need to supply your own power supply on switch since the miner won't do it itself, apparently.
Wouldn't a power supply tester with an on/off button be a nice, clean version of this? e.g. http://dx.com/p/pc-computer-atx-power-supply-tester-with-on-off-switch-black-132273



Nice suggestion and available for $5 on Amazon. Multi-use items = win
It'll even beep when you switch it on - try getting a paperclip to do that  Grin

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September 15, 2013, 05:41:18 PM
 #9395

...
Now there's several good reasons why the difficulty will -not- get to 7 billion with the price of bitcoin at $125. There's ROI to think about, the cost of hardware must be amortized in, which means the difficulty is actually very likely to level off at more around 2 billion or less.
...

You're ignoring that:

1.  Miners pre-order their gear months in advance, so the gear ordered today is *locked in* -- it will mine even if it makes pennies over power cost.
2.  People are bad at math -- they will continue to come up with "but bitcoin will be worth moar" arguments & mine at a loss.
3.  Even when people are given a chance at a refund (the case with KNC?), they don't use it -- even when all evidence tells them to do so.  Some yet unnamed gambler's fallacy, i guess.
4.  People bought & are still buying USB miners -- case in point.


So you think it's better to buy BTC than mine them and end up with the same number of BTC or slightly less?
I assume that's the argument you make in point 2?

Then you make the point that people are still buying USB miners, which goes and demonstrates that your own logic is poor and possibly your maths too since if people will pay for a USB miner don't you think that Jupiter might just sell too? Assuming you don't use it to mine something else that is.
Selling a Jupiter after it's broken even would beat buying BTC by any maths ..and if a gamble on the price of BTC was the prime motivation then trading with some leverage would make more sense than simply buying and selling them with the fees and faffing about that can entail.

There's another option some people with a little sense may have planned too. Buy 2 rigs, instantly sell one and keep the other(s)...I'd bet that would work out well for day 1 people. Best of all probably. That's also what I'd do instead of cancelling.

I wasn't aware that the chance of a refund from KnC had expired, and I know they aren't late on delivery yet...so point 3 is bollocks too, why would anyone get a refund when they only just ordered and so far nothing is awry...and they still have that safety margin to use? People looked at the possibilities and decided to order a rig, until their minds are changed by something more concrete than trolls "evidence" they have no reason to jump ship. None of us know for sure what's going to happen in the next six months, it's all best guess based on past performance and promises from various manufacturers.



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September 15, 2013, 05:55:26 PM
 #9396

7 billion is the upper limit of difficulty at a $125 price.

You wish!

You seem to think hardware prices will remain steady, in reality they will drop as fast as difficulty shoots up. Cointerra preorders are already being discounted at a rate of 50% per month now, not surprisingly perfectly in tune with D doubling per month,  and thats not going to stop until marginal production cost approaches mining profitability per TH.

The latter is easy to calculate (I went with cointerra's specs), but the question is, how much does it cost to make more 28nm asics ? I did the math in another thread given a $5000 price tag per 28nm wafer  (generous) and 2-3x cost for stuff like testing, packaging, PCBs and vendor markup, and it  results in a difficulty somewhere between 100 and 200 billion at todays BTC exchange rate and with EU electricity prices. Thats a ballpark figure, it may end up being half that or double that, but not 1/15th of that, no way.

I cant predict how fast we will reach those levels, it could be many years,  but the only thing limiting that is the ability of all asic vendors combined to produce and ship their products. There is no other limit. Considering the amount of vendors and the fact that at least some of them will be able to manage a supply chain better than BFL, I wouldnt be too surprised to see this happen in less than two years.
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September 15, 2013, 06:05:04 PM
 #9397

7 billion is the upper limit of difficulty at a $125 price.

You wish!

You seem to think hardware prices will remain steady, in reality they will drop as fast as difficulty shoots up. Cointerra preorders are already being discounted at a rate of 50% per month now, not surprisingly perfectly in tune with D doubling per month,  and thats not going to stop until marginal production cost approaches mining profitability per TH.

The latter is easy to calculate (I went with cointerra's specs), but the question is, how much does it cost to make more 28nm asics ? I did the math in another thread given a $5000 price tag per 28nm wafer  (generous) and 2-3x cost for stuff like testing, packaging, PCBs and vendor markup, and it  results in a difficulty somewhere between 100 and 200 billion at todays BTC exchange rate and with EU electricity prices. Thats a ballpark figure, it may end up being half that or double that, but not 1/15th of that, no way.

I cant predict how fast we will reach those levels, it could be many years,  but the only thing limiting that is the ability of all asic vendors combined to produce and ship their products. There is no other limit. Considering the amount of vendors and the fact that at least some of them will be able to manage a supply chain better than BFL, I wouldnt be too surprised to see this happen in less than two years.

And when will we see 14nm ASICs?  http://hothardware.com/News/Intel-Shows-14nm-Broadwell-Consuming-30-Less-Power-Than-22nm-Haswell/



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September 15, 2013, 06:07:04 PM
 #9398


Not any time soon, if ever. But for other reasons, and thats a different discussion. But its the one thing I wouldnt lose sleep over as a wannabee or soon to be asic miner.
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September 15, 2013, 06:08:25 PM
 #9399


 Did anyone made the joke about 'swedish' asic miners comes in parts and you have to build them yourself because it is 'cheaper' that way?

If they sell chips alone only, it could be done...

Well, the joke is you still have to supply your own PSU. And not only that, you'll also need to supply your own power supply on switch since the miner won't do it itself, apparently.
Wouldn't a power supply tester with an on/off button be a nice, clean version of this? e.g. http://dx.com/p/pc-computer-atx-power-supply-tester-with-on-off-switch-black-132273



Nice suggestion and available for $5 on Amazon. Multi-use items = win

I have something similar but it doesn't stay on.  It turns off once you release the "on" button.  And from what I've read, the circuitry in these devices isn't really meant for constant power and will most likely fail... or worse... burn down your house.
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September 15, 2013, 06:16:09 PM
 #9400

...
Now there's several good reasons why the difficulty will -not- get to 7 billion with the price of bitcoin at $125. There's ROI to think about, the cost of hardware must be amortized in, which means the difficulty is actually very likely to level off at more around 2 billion or less.
...

You're ignoring that:

1.  Miners pre-order their gear months in advance, so the gear ordered today is *locked in* -- it will mine even if it makes pennies over power cost.
2.  People are bad at math -- they will continue to come up with "but bitcoin will be worth moar" arguments & mine at a loss.
3.  Even when people are given a chance at a refund (the case with KNC?), they don't use it -- even when all evidence tells them to do so.  Some yet unnamed gambler's fallacy, i guess.
4.  People bought & are still buying USB miners -- case in point.


So you think it's better to buy BTC than mine them and end up with the same number of BTC or slightly less?
I assume that's the argument you make in point 2?

If you want to make money?  Definitely.  If you want to mine for fun -- buy a rig & mine, but don't lie to yourself & others that ur making monyz.

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Then you make the point that people are still buying USB miners, which goes and demonstrates that your own logic is poor and possibly your maths too since if people will pay for a USB miner don't you think that Jupiter might just sell too? Assuming you don't use it to mine something else that is.
Selling a Jupiter after it's broken even would beat buying BTC by any maths ..and if a gamble on the price of BTC was the prime motivation then trading with some leverage would make more sense than simply buying and selling them with the fees and faffing about that can entail.

Slowdownthere, Tiger.  Yes, people are buying USB miners, which shows that people will mine at a loss -- the point i attempted to make.  And made.  Presto!
If you are buying a rig to sell to a greater fool, you might well succeed -- there's no shortage of fools here.
If you feel that buying BTC is gambling and pre-ordering miners beats it "by any maths," you lack understanding of maths, BTC, mining, gambling, or any combination of the above.

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There's another option some people with a little sense may have planned too. Buy 2 rigs, instantly sell one and keep the other(s)...I'd bet that would work out well for day 1 people. Best of all probably. That's also what I'd do instead of cancelling.

Another gambler's fallacy -- why sell just one of the two instead of both, if mining with them is unprofitable?  Why not keep them both if it is Huh

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I wasn't aware that the chance of a refund from KnC had expired, and I know they aren't late on delivery yet...so point 3 is bollocks too, why would anyone get a refund when they only just ordered and so far nothing is awry...and they still have that safety margin to use? People looked at the possibilities and decided to order a rig, until their minds are changed by something more concrete than trolls "evidence" they have no reason to jump ship. None of us know for sure what's going to happen in the next six months, it's all best guess based on past performance and promises from various manufacturers.

I have never suggested that KNC's refund window has closed -- has it?  Point 3 stands -- you have a chance at a refund, you talk about a hence-to unmentioned expiry date, and... You don't ask for the refund.  Case in point, see?

Finally, you're right -- none of us know anything for certain, but those of us blessed with the gift of reason can make sound predictions.  U, of course, are welcome to ignore those.
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