Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[True Myth]

They have been asking me for sources of daily info on bitcoin because they want to invest in bitcoin when it goes live on robinhood in February.

So newcomers would better save like 0.25% fees and buy from some unestablished exchange rather than going with a reputable one, i.e. trading since 5+ years? I don't get it. But yeah, I'm Swiss, so you know...

I asked that question. There were 2 common responses.

1. No fees
2. "I can trade between stocks and crypto without transferring funds."

*Edit - they already have robinhood accounts for stocks.

So... just found this:

" Cryptocurrency prices are notoriously volatile. To counter that, Robinhood Crypto gives users an estimated price, and once users confirm a buy or sell order, they scan a gamut of trading venues, exchanges and market centers to find the lowest offer, TechCrunch explained. To account for wild price fluctuations, the service puts a 'collar' around your order; If it can't find a price within this margin, it will wait until one surfaces to execute your order or inform you."

Sounds like an awful lot of work for no fees being charged.

[explorer]

They have been asking me for sources of daily info on bitcoin because they want to invest in bitcoin when it goes live on robinhood in February.

So newcomers would better save like 0.25% fees and buy from some unestablished exchange rather than going with a reputable one, i.e. trading since 5+ years? I don't get it. But yeah, I'm Swiss, so you know...

I asked that question. There were 2 common responses.

1. No fees
2. "I can trade between stocks and crypto without transferring funds."

*Edit - they already have robinhood accounts for stocks.

So... just found this:

" Cryptocurrency prices are notoriously volatile. To counter that, Robinhood Crypto gives users an estimated price, and once users confirm a buy or sell order, they scan a gamut of trading venues, exchanges and market centers to find the lowest offer, TechCrunch explained. To account for wild price fluctuations, the service puts a 'collar' around your order; If it can't find a price within this margin, it will wait until one surfaces to execute your order or inform you."

Sounds like an awful lot of work for no fees being charged.

Will they offer crypto withdrawals?  Or just rehypothecate with abandon, like stocks?

[matt4054]

1. No fees
2. "I can trade between stocks and crypto without transferring funds."

*Edit - they already have robinhood accounts for stocks.

Hmm, ok, insightful. Well at least that kind of makes sense. Looks like convenience is underrated sometimes

[Last of the V8s]

@SamouraiWallet
23m23 minutes ago
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@gotenna
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-but is it safe?

[True Myth]

They have been asking me for sources of daily info on bitcoin because they want to invest in bitcoin when it goes live on robinhood in February.

So newcomers would better save like 0.25% fees and buy from some unestablished exchange rather than going with a reputable one, i.e. trading since 5+ years? I don't get it. But yeah, I'm Swiss, so you know...

I asked that question. There were 2 common responses.

1. No fees
2. "I can trade between stocks and crypto without transferring funds."

*Edit - they already have robinhood accounts for stocks.

So... just found this:

" Cryptocurrency prices are notoriously volatile. To counter that, Robinhood Crypto gives users an estimated price, and once users confirm a buy or sell order, they scan a gamut of trading venues, exchanges and market centers to find the lowest offer, TechCrunch explained. To account for wild price fluctuations, the service puts a 'collar' around your order; If it can't find a price within this margin, it will wait until one surfaces to execute your order or inform you."

Sounds like an awful lot of work for no fees being charged.

Will they offer crypto withdrawals?  Or just rehypothecate with abandon, like stocks?

It seems like no one is sure if you can deposit or withdraw crypto. I searched online for some more info and found lots of people asking the same question with no one having answers. I would speculate that you can not make withdrawals in the form of crypto.

[HairyMaclairy]

I don’t believe that the banks have banned employees from personal trading outside of work hours, despite what the media might have said.

Doesn't have to be official or even legal for it to be real. Who is to say why someone was sacked instead of the guy two cubicles over?

These are major employers in socialist countries with highly skilled knowledge workers who have access to employment tribunals and unfair dismissal laws.   We aren’t taking about teenagers at Dairy Queen in Alabama.

[RoomBot]

Guys, I need to know if the price is going to go up or down over the next 48 hours. Please, this very important!!

It will go up. 


And down.


And up.

-- in the next 48 hours, guaranteed!

[JayJuanGee]

Oddly enough it wasent Bob's finaincials that I was slightly worrying about..it was hes state of mind. For someone ready to step into the next path of their life he is sooooo angry!  /s
 

Since I agree with you so much, I am reluctant to quibble, but quibble I must.


Rather than "sooooooooo angry!", I would characterize Bob's online persona as:

 

FLAMBOYANTLY INTENSE!!!!


Get a Grip, Bob.


Get a FUCKING GRIP!!!!
 

[Colonel Panic]

On a different.. wall observing kinda note, the UK annual self assessment tax MUST be paid by January 31st. I’m sure many people that spent well in 2017 (knowing they had massive BTC profits to fall back on) didn’t really plan ahead so needed to cash out a few Bitcoins to pay their tax bill... I’m one of these people. I cashed out at £10600 (approx $14k) but I’m sure others have been holding to the last minute hoping.... it goes a bit higher than now...

31st Jan payment deadline is for tax year 16-17, so CGT on sales before last April

Edit: so your tax is due Jan 2019. No rush.

[RoomBot]

Legendary members don't need these merits because there's no point

Oh yeah ? I JUST GAVE YOU 10 MERITS ! WHAT ARE YOU GONNA DO ABOUT IT ?!?? HUH ?!

Let's see who runs out first. +11
We're not allowed to sell them, but uh, I have an address in my profile you can donate to.

"You can only send 50 merit to a given user per 30 days. You have already sent 11 merit to that user."

Sheeit.

I wanted to blow my load on you.

uh,oh!  That's what happens when BF is out of town.

[jojo69]

ASSLESS CHAPS

ASSLESS CHAPS

ASSLESS CHAPS

IF THEY ARE NOT ASSLESS THEY ARE NOT CHAPS

well, yeah...

but it is just so much fun to say    

 Yep.  Plain old run-of-the-mill pants.

please, don't remind me of pantsgate

too soon man, too soon

[vanobe]

Guys, I need to know if the price is going to go up or down over the next 48 hours. Please, this very important!!

It will go up. 


And down.


And up.

-- in the next 48 hours, guaranteed!

Alternatively it might go down. 


And up.


And down.

-- in the next 48 hours

[RoomBot]

Guys, I need to know if the price is going to go up or down over the next 48 hours. Please, this very important!!

It will go up. 


And down.


And up.

-- in the next 48 hours, guaranteed!

Alternatively it might go down. 


And up.


And down.

-- in the next 48 hours

Oh, sh!t!  I never thought of that!~~~~~~!!!!!!!!1111

[explorer]

They have been asking me for sources of daily info on bitcoin because they want to invest in bitcoin when it goes live on robinhood in February.

So newcomers would better save like 0.25% fees and buy from some unestablished exchange rather than going with a reputable one, i.e. trading since 5+ years? I don't get it. But yeah, I'm Swiss, so you know...

I asked that question. There were 2 common responses.

1. No fees
2. "I can trade between stocks and crypto without transferring funds."

*Edit - they already have robinhood accounts for stocks.

So... just found this:

" Cryptocurrency prices are notoriously volatile. To counter that, Robinhood Crypto gives users an estimated price, and once users confirm a buy or sell order, they scan a gamut of trading venues, exchanges and market centers to find the lowest offer, TechCrunch explained. To account for wild price fluctuations, the service puts a 'collar' around your order; If it can't find a price within this margin, it will wait until one surfaces to execute your order or inform you."

Sounds like an awful lot of work for no fees being charged.

Will they offer crypto withdrawals?  Or just rehypothecate with abandon, like stocks?

It seems like no one is sure if you can deposit or withdraw crypto. I searched online for some more info and found lots of people asking the same question with no one having answers. I would speculate that you can not make withdrawals in the form of crypto.

Whereupon I would speculate that no work is being done, and no (or little) crypto is being purchased or held, requiring no fees to pay for such.  Yes, of course I am a cynic.  No wonder they cater to those with scant resources.

[Torque]

In the end, it's all a gamble, I just like the odds better on some of them that few people see for now (then everyone else will see it and have their "Napster" moment, that one dies and gets "torrented", but the world changes anyway.)

Mostly is that latecomers feel that btc can hardly make another 10X+ from current levels, so they end buying lottery tickets priced $1 or less to have their chance for a 100-bagger, without even looking at the monetary base or any other technical spec of their tickets.

I feel like this is the *real* reason. The delusion these people feel is trying to justify the "reasons" why they are doing it, but they can't ignore the underlying reality.

Also, will it surprise them when Bitcoin does indeed do another 10X or 100X? It will, the only factor is how long it will take. Bitcoin is held by < 0.01% of the world population. Not every millionaire in the U.S. has any bitcoin. Wall Street hasn't even begun to up-leverage Bitcoin, because they don't have a way to do it effectively yet.

[explorer]

In the end, it's all a gamble, I just like the odds better on some of them that few people see for now (then everyone else will see it and have their "Napster" moment, that one dies and gets "torrented", but the world changes anyway.)

Mostly is that latecomers feel that btc can hardly make another 10X+ from current levels, so they end buying lottery tickets priced $1 or less to have their chance for a 100-bagger, without even looking at the monetary base or any other technical spec of their tickets.

I feel like this is the *real* reason. The delusion these people feel is trying to justify the "reasons" why they are doing it, but they can't ignore the underlying reality.

Also, will it surprise them when Bitcoin does indeed do another 10X or 100X? It will, the only factor is how long it will take. Bitcoin is held by < 0.01% of the world population. Not every millionaire in the U.S. has any bitcoin. Wall Street hasn't even begun to up-leverage Bitcoin, because they don't have a way to do it effectively yet.

  Projecting one's own motives and beliefs/understanding onto the great unwashed is I think the most common delusion among (otherwise?) intelligent people.  In this echo chamber,  BTC is best because technical analytical blah blah, where clearly the world at large cares not at all.  It is the $$ and adoption of these uninformed and unintelligent masses that is required to make 'progress'.  Catering to them may be a sell out, but it is undeniably effective.

[Neo_Coin]

[sirazimuth]

well now...
just got my head wrapped around this merit business then I see we
now have copper members.  Theymos has been busy I guess...

[explorer]

well now...
just got my head wrapped around this merit business then I see we
now have copper members.  Theymos has been busy I guess...

Is it still 50BTC to change your username?

[Typex]

This guy makes a good case for why the CME futures expiry tomorrow will be a nonevent: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7syd2c/expiring_futures_tomorrow_not_so_fast/

The CME futures expire tomorrow, and everyone is panicking that Wall Street will manipulate the price downward to gain the most profit... But it's not that simple; CME has limits on what any given entity can hold, that make it almost unprofitable given the cost of manipulation.

Any entity is limited to owning 1k contracts containing 5btc each. Every $5 move in bitcoin is a $25 profit/loss on a contract. In the recent month, we saw the price move from $19k to $10k potentially tomorrow at expiration - accounting for a $9k price move, meaning $45M possible profit (per entity holding the maximum 1k contracts; every $1k move in btc price equals a $5M profit/loss). I am a realist, and do believe that multiple entities could collect and agree on a direction (for example 10 groups) meaning the profit would be $450M for the month of January. However, open interest today says this isn't happening (more on that below).

To manipulate the price today, it costs about $15M to buy all the btc within $1k of the current price (based on the depth chart in GDAX). The group of 10 entities (referenced above) could agree to spend $15M to move the price lower by $1k, thus gaining the group of 10 a total of $50M (or a $35M profit for the group by spending $15M). This will not hold the price down the $1k, however, and many traders would instantly gobble up the orders at the lower price, meaning the entities would need to do this multiple times to keep the price low. A realistic strategy for Wall Street is going to be to hold their "manipulation money" until right before the market closes, and push price down in the hours leading up to expiration (4pm London time, or 11am Eastern Time for CME futures).

As the market matures and becomes more balanced, these opportunities will be harder to accomplish, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable that this could happen tomorrow, but likely in the 9am-11am hours, and likely immediately rebound back.

Finally, the open interest on the futures expiring tomorrow is currently at 1,459 contracts, meaning the total bitcoin in play here is 7,295 btc or ~$80M, meaning the cost of manipulation will dramatically cut into profits. This also means there is not a group of 10 entities teaming up to manipulate the price.

Just food for thought as people prepare for the Wall Street futures dip tomorrow...

TLDR; I don't think it'll happen, the business case and open interest just isn't there.

Its also possible many of those orders are from the same person or entities.  The net cost to buy and sell to each other is effectively zero.
I guess we will see tomorrow.