Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

[edited out]

it's up to the market to decide.  
Bitcoin is the most secure database humanity has invented, and the market participants will outbid each other for being able to use it.  

Right now only a bunch of freaks are using it. But wait until mainstream catches up. We have seen nothing yet... (compare it to the internet)

Lookie uie poo-ie.. ... 

All diplomatic (and professional) about the matter.

 

breaking character busted...

be gentle with me #nohomo

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[coolcoinz]

investors are screwed.

Are they really? I don't feel screwed, but I don't have to send BTC on a daily basis. If I had to pay my employees in BTC, I'd feel a bit screwed.

Let's say we had no ordinals and there were people willing to send a couple satoshis and pay a higher fee than the value of transaction, wouldn't that put us in the same situation? Bitcoin's fee was made for this and there's no real solution, unless we ban ordinals, but then we'll be deciding what is and what isn't allowed.
Rollback taproot?  

[vroom]

investors are screwed.

Are they really? I don't feel screwed, but I don't have to send BTC on a daily basis. If I had to pay my employees in BTC, I'd feel a bit screwed.

Let's say we had no ordinals and there were people willing to send a couple satoshis and pay a higher fee than the value of transaction, wouldn't that put us in the same situation? Bitcoin's fee was made for this and there's no real solution, unless we ban ordinals, but then we'll be deciding what is and what isn't allowed.
Rollback taproot?  

and segwit. let's go full bch retard 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

investors are screwed.

Are they really? I don't feel screwed, but I don't have to send BTC on a daily basis. If I had to pay my employees in BTC, I'd feel a bit screwed.

Let's say we had no ordinals and there were people willing to send a couple satoshis and pay a higher fee than the value of transaction, wouldn't that put us in the same situation? Bitcoin's fee was made for this and there's no real solution, unless we ban ordinals, but then we'll be deciding what is and what isn't allowed.
Rollback taproot?  

and segwit. let's go full bch retard 

bcash already pumpin

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[darkangel11]

hahahahaha..

Fair enough.  I surely prefer the price to go up rather than down, but many times, I have found that there are many instances in which it is NOT good to run out of fiat to be able to continue to buy on the way down, even when we may well believe that it is not likely to go there.

I don't even know whether I should list all of the times in which I ran out of money or came pretty damned close to running out of money, so when the BTC price dipped and continued to dip and I continued to buy, the amounts that I was buying at or near (what ended up being) the bottom ended up being relatively token amounts.. but I still wanted to keep up the ability to buy on the way down, even if it was ONLY small amount.

Since i am going down this road, I will provide a couple of examples.

In January 2015 BTC prices dipped all the way down to about $156 or something like that, and it stayed there for right around a day or two, and I made one or two purchases.. that were below $200 at about $180-ish.. I mostly did not have any money to buy because I had been buying all the way down from about $400 to $200 and the BTC price kept dipping and/or refused to go up.. and then in about October 2015 when it dipped down to nearly $200.. I was able to buy some BTC, but still not a whole hell of a lot, since I had mostly been buying the whole year when the BTC prices were mostly bouncing between $220 and $270.. and probably spending a large amount of that time below $250.  That whole year (2015), I felt like I had mostly ran out of cash.. and I ended up adding about 20% to 25% to my BTC stash - and even though I spent the whole year with my BTC stash in the negative, I had brought my average cost per BTC down from about $550 in the beginning of the year to about $500 per BTC in the end of the year, and all of that likely made a difference, even though my portfolio was in the negative until about May 2016.. when the BTC price went mostly above my average cost per BTC and for the most part stayed there... (and of course, no guarantees of repetition)..

A more recent example, would have had been in 2022 with my mostly preparing and hoping in the earlier part of the year that the BTC price would (at worst) bottom out around upper $20ks or lower $30ks and I had BTC buy orders down to about $20k-ish that I though would not end up filling, but I was glad to keep them there... and then in about May 2022 when the BTC price dropped so quickly below $35k.. I was like "oh shit... this is not going as anticipated" and I ended up cancelling and restructuring a lot of my buy orders between $21k-ish and $33k-ish and caused them to go down to $19k-ish.. and then ultimately, I had to restructure my bottoms several times.. as we know what happened (and continued to happen in 2022), the dip kept dipping.. and so it felt kind of good to be able to continue to be able to buy, even though I mostly felt bad a lot of the time.. until more recently (earlier this year when we had a pretty damned decent uppity move to get us back above the 200-week moving average.. ..which was actually just below $22k in May 2022 and currently is a bit higher than $26k... so it is nice to get back above it.. even if it is far from guaranteed that "we" are going to stay above it.. in our resumption of UPpity.. and I am hardly going to proclaim to have knowledge that goes much beyond 50/50 when it comes to such a question regarding what are the odds that "we" are able to stay above the 200-week moving average...even though the 200-week moving average has been a pretty damned decent bottom indicator and it has continued to move up through all of bitcoin's history.. and there are not any guarantees in regards to always moving up either.. even though it has been doing so.. "so far."

My punchline has always gravitated towards trying to be able to be prepared financially and psychologically as much as we are able to do for price movements in either direction.. and even the extreme-ass ones... and surely bitcoin has had those kinds of dynamics that I believe to be part of the ways that battles take place with such a disruptive and revolutionary product in which the status quo richie are being removed from their wealth and fighting it all the way.. so the picture is not going to be clean, neat and/or unambiguous along this journey.. and there are likely going to continue to be casualties along the way, and any of us who prefer to NOT be (or become) a casualty should be attempting to keep some value in both camps.. even if we are largely and mostly end up being overly-committed in the camp of dee cornz... in order to maintain financial and psychological health along the path and even in the various end stages.. or places that we may well be wanting to enjoy some of our likely ongoing profits along the way.. (again, no guarantee with our being on the upper levels of the citadel status either)..

I always fall for it.
In 2018 I felt that everything below 10k was a bargain, so I kept buying at 10, 9, 8... then we went to 6 for a while and that's where I run out of money. Then we went to 3 and I thought - fuck that I'm out of here, time to take my mind off of it. There was so much negativity in the air that I just couldn't stand it.

In 2022 I did pretty much the same thing buying from 29k all the way down. In my head it was all simple and easy. We'll go to 30 and bounce back like we did the first time... or we'll go lower into the real bear market territory of 22-23k, which is right above the last ATH (fair level to end the bear market at). I also left myself a last little bit of money in case we dipped a bit below 20k like 18-19k, which was my worst case scenario, but who could've predicted that there's a (un)stable coin owner who decides to buy bitcoin and then dump it all at once to crash the market, or that an exchange owner who meets with SEC chair for a tea is really an insolvent scammer...

So I never manage to get the bottom, I'm too impatient. Every time there's a bear market I handle it better though.

bcash already pumpin

So is BSV - Ver and Faketoshi must be having a party.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

bcash already pumpin

So is BSV - Ver and Faketoshi must be having a party.

haha maybe 2017 allover again...  


fEeS toO hiGh... BtC bRoKen ...  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

[ChartBuddy]

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[HI-TEC99]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

"The 2024 halving could send Bitcoin's price 4-8x higher."

Twitter Thread https://twitter.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1655566037838962691

The key word is "could" as in all other speculations - and here it's just about playing with numbers because x4-x8, in this case, refers to the current price, and if we took the last ATH as a reference value, then we couldn't even write x2 -x4. In fact, his analysis is very simple and has already been seen countless times.

I have to agree with you, and also add.

Why in all this analisys they understimate so much the actual conjucture, or other things involved?, i know they are the predictions bassed pure on graphs analisys and some math, but come on guys we CANT ASSURE this its gonna happen, it was not so lineal in the past and its not gonna be so lineal in the future, if that was so easy to predict and with the halving the price jumps x4 or x8 we can see already now a bull run for people trying to enter and catch that x4, or x8.

But this its clearly not happening right now.

Also the BTC now its really linked with the real economics factors and the real world, so i think we have to be more cautelous.

A big recession in the world or other war like China-Taiwan can blow up all the "analisys", fundamentals also matters.

Are you trying to argue that "it might be different this time" Volgastallion?



hahahahahaha


You must be new here.....





oh wait......






oh golly gee...

maybe u r be newie pooie? 





 

.....i would really like to know Satoshis opinion on that shit.

Fuck satoshi.

Who cares what he thinks (or thought)?  Can't go crying to daddy satoshi.

We're BIG boys and girls now.... on our own.

 

 

 

Nah, not crying at all.
I just would like to know, like i wrote.

I also value Gachapin's opinion, by the way. Why shouldn't i?
It's not that if don't like something  i expect everyone else to not like it too  
because now i'm a BIG boy, too

We each said our part...

no problema.

I had said what I thought about your post...  and you said what you think about it in response to what I had said.. and.. so there you have it.

I will "try not to" hold it your appeal to authority against you...


Perhaps?

 

To the extent that my future potential memory of the topic even matters, maybe in one or two years (or 5 or 6 years), I will forget that you even said it?

Perhaps?


and will you forget the trauma that you felt from my seemingly "anti-satoshi" blasphemy?  maybe you will and maybe you won't?


      

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation