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Question: Next Bubble Top (resulting in a new ATH):
Will never reach a new ATH - 7 (6.9%)
$20,000-$49,999 - 20 (19.6%)
$50,000-$99,999 - 26 (25.5%)
$100,000-$149,999 - 21 (20.6%)
$150,000-$199,999 - 8 (7.8%)
$200,000-$249,999 - 6 (5.9%)
$250,000-$299,999 - 1 (1%)
$300,000-$350,000 - 1 (1%)
>$350,000 - 12 (11.8%)
Total Voters: 102

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21503317 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (138 posts by 32 users deleted.)
Biodom
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February 22, 2018, 01:37:31 AM


1. don't believe anything that call itself "real science", because it ain't.
2. The refutation is the quote from Sarah Kaplan that says that there were more species going extinct in prior events.

Duh! Prior event lasted for hundreds of thousands, even millions of years and
here we have 1% vertebrate extinction in 100 years.

1% in 100 years is a pretty big number IF it continues, but why won't it?


I think you need to balance that with discoveries.  It's like saying x people die every year, so the population will be zero in xy years.

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png

Which discoveries?
The example is not fitting since I was talking about multiple independent events and you are talking about one individual.

Here is an example of a proper extrapolation: if there are only A, C, G and T nucleotides present in DNA, than I only need to measure the % of one nucleotide (say, A) to find out the %% of all four. No need for further discoveries (in this example).

another one: if we grow turkeys for slaughter and ALL turkeys are grown for less than 3 years, what is the probability of a turkey, which is 1000 days old not to live beyond day 1096. About 100%.
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February 22, 2018, 01:51:02 AM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1), BTCMILLIONAIRE (1)

Some time ago we had a discussion here about a possible issue with the Lightning Network. Some big blocker was suggesting that the Lightning Network is doomed to fail because routing and because problems.

The potential problem is similar to a double spend attempt. Briefly and roughly: Alice has a channel with Bob, Alice sends funds to Bob and while Bob is offline she broadcasts the channel state as it was before she spent the funds, thus undoing the spend. However, if anyone broadcasts the correct (later) channel state, Alice is done: the whole channel balance goes to Bob. Serves her right for trying to cheat.

The problem is, if Bob's offline he knows nothing about Alice's wrongdoings, so there must be someone watching the channel for him. This someone could be rewarded by Bob with part of the funds if cheating is discovered (and therefore funds are gained by Bob). I speculated that a bounty market could come into existence. It seems there are already some bounty hunters in the present, clunky version of the LN. They are doing it for free at the moment, since the cost of watching a few channels is negligible.

It's in the comments. The video itself is technical. Mention of the bounty hunters was the topic that spurred the most attention in the discussion.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7xrq5g/lightning_network_and_discreet_log_contracts/
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February 22, 2018, 01:56:52 AM

Some time ago we had a discussion here about a possible issue with the Lightning Network. Some big blocker was suggesting that the Lightning Network is doomed to fail because routing and because problems.

The potential problem is similar to a double spend attempt. Briefly and roughly: Alice has a channel with Bob, Alice sends funds to Bob and while Bob is offline she broadcasts the channel state as it was before she spent the funds, thus undoing the spend. However, if anyone broadcasts the correct (later) channel state, Alice is done: the whole channel balance goes to Bob. Serves her right for trying to cheat.

The problem is, if Bob's offline he knows nothing about Alice's wrongdoings, so there must be someone watching the channel for him. This someone could be rewarded by Bob with part of the funds if cheating is discovered (and therefore funds are gained by Bob). I speculated that a bounty market could come into existence. It seems there are already some bounty hunters in the present, clunky version of the LN. They are doing it for free at the moment, since the cost of watching a few channels is negligible.

It's in the comments. The video itself is technical. Mention of the bounty hunters was the topic that spurred the most attention in the discussion.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7xrq5g/lightning_network_and_discreet_log_contracts/

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February 22, 2018, 01:57:26 AM

Wonder if he would've managed to withdraw if he didn't go for such absurd sums.

 It really does sound absurd.  Let's look at it - $20,000,000,000,000 worth of Bitcoin (at least that's the story)

I know offtopic posts are frowned upon here, and some topics are more off than other, but I'll risk it.

Have you heard about cryptocurrencies? Well there's this nifty thing called bitcoin, it's my favorite.
It's holding 10.5 k-ish.

 If we divide the current value into the exchange glitch number we get

 ~1,904,761,904 Bitcoins?

 #Helluvaglitch!
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February 22, 2018, 02:02:14 AM

Wonder if he would've managed to withdraw if he didn't go for such absurd sums.

 It really does sound absurd.  Let's look at it - $20,000,000,000,000 worth of Bitcoin (at least that's the story)

I know offtopic posts are frowned upon here, and some topics are more off than other, but I'll risk it.

Have you heard about cryptocurrencies? Well there's this nifty thing called bitcoin, it's my favorite.
It's holding 10.5 k-ish.

 If we divide the current value into the exchange glitch number we get

 ~1,904,761,904 Bitcoins?

 #Helluvaglitch!

The first Bitcoin Billionaire, then there was a solar flare.
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February 22, 2018, 02:02:50 AM


 If we divide the current value into the exchange glitch number we get

 ~1,904,761,904 Bitcoins?

 #Helluvaglitch!


I wonder what would have happened if he simply purchased close to his daily withdrawal max, then tried to withdraw.
The poor bastard might have pulled it off, lol
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February 22, 2018, 02:06:31 AM


 If we divide the current value into the exchange glitch number we get

 ~1,904,761,904 Bitcoins?

 #Helluvaglitch!


I wonder what would have happened if he simply purchased close to his daily withdrawal max, then tried to withdraw.
The poor bastard might have pulled it off, lol
Which only leaves one of two conclusions. Either he was being an honest guy and just wanted to provide us all with some lulz. Or he's too much of a moron to exploit and cheat. I'm hoping for the former, but given the average forum user I would probably have to put my money on the latter.
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February 22, 2018, 02:09:08 AM

Some time ago we had a discussion here about a possible issue with the Lightning Network. Some big blocker was suggesting that the Lightning Network is doomed to fail because routing and because problems.

The potential problem is similar to a double spend attempt. Briefly and roughly: Alice has a channel with Bob, Alice sends funds to Bob and while Bob is offline she broadcasts the channel state as it was before she spent the funds, thus undoing the spend. However, if anyone broadcasts the correct (later) channel state, Alice is done: the whole channel balance goes to Bob. Serves her right for trying to cheat.

The problem is, if Bob's offline he knows nothing about Alice's wrongdoings, so there must be someone watching the channel for him. This someone could be rewarded by Bob with part of the funds if cheating is discovered (and therefore funds are gained by Bob). I speculated that a bounty market could come into existence. It seems there are already some bounty hunters in the present, clunky version of the LN. They are doing it for free at the moment, since the cost of watching a few channels is negligible.

It's in the comments. The video itself is technical. Mention of the bounty hunters was the topic that spurred the most attention in the discussion.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7xrq5g/lightning_network_and_discreet_log_contracts/

Anyone who pretends lightning network is a valid scaling solution for bitcoin to be used in day to day transactions and mainstream adoption is a conman IMO.  It has some benefits like doing instant arb between exchanges and things like that, but that's it.  It is not something for normal people to use to buy something at a restaurant.  Jihan Wu was not lying when he said the benefits of LN were vastly overstated and the cons vastly understated.

There is no reason for bitcoin to exist as a settlement layer because it's just a valueless currency and currencies like airline miles are never used for settlement.  Gold and silver are far superior settlement instruments and it's impossible for bitcoin to defeat them.  Bitcoin fails as a settlement system (money) because there are better options available, and fails as a currency because it doesn't scale, while also being designed to centralize, thus invalidating it's entire value prospect.  So just what the fuck is it's purpose supposed to be?

#fuckcryptoconmen

#thegoyimknow

#inphysicalsilverwetrust
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February 22, 2018, 02:13:13 AM

Some time ago we had a discussion here about a possible issue with the Lightning Network. Some big blocker was suggesting that the Lightning Network is doomed to fail because routing and because problems.

The potential problem is similar to a double spend attempt. Briefly and roughly: Alice has a channel with Bob, Alice sends funds to Bob and while Bob is offline she broadcasts the channel state as it was before she spent the funds, thus undoing the spend. However, if anyone broadcasts the correct (later) channel state, Alice is done: the whole channel balance goes to Bob. Serves her right for trying to cheat.

The problem is, if Bob's offline he knows nothing about Alice's wrongdoings, so there must be someone watching the channel for him. This someone could be rewarded by Bob with part of the funds if cheating is discovered (and therefore funds are gained by Bob). I speculated that a bounty market could come into existence. It seems there are already some bounty hunters in the present, clunky version of the LN. They are doing it for free at the moment, since the cost of watching a few channels is negligible.

It's in the comments. The video itself is technical. Mention of the bounty hunters was the topic that spurred the most attention in the discussion.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7xrq5g/lightning_network_and_discreet_log_contracts/

I'm guessing that I may be the aforementioned big blocker. What with our continued conversations over my skepticism and all.

Thanks for posting. I'll read.

There's a lot of layers here. As just one example: 'how much channel state is exposed to outsiders to allow such to police random actors?' But I'll reserve detailed discussion until after I land.
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February 22, 2018, 02:17:59 AM

Quote
JayJuanGee post



Can you be more specific you hate-filled nutjob?   Probably not, because you don't really have anything to contribute beyond your various non-topical talking points.

JayJuanGee, can I interest you in a few trillion dollars of Jewish treasuries?

Well, if you would interact with me on the first question, then perhaps I would be willing to entertain the idea of interacting you with further questions

HOWEVER


YOU FUCKING TURD




you did not even address my first question before going on to asking an additional question.

You quasi-incoherent delusional trolling FUCK!!!!!!    Roll Eyes
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February 22, 2018, 02:22:33 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (25), BitcoinNewsMagazine (1), Dunkelheit667 (1), soullyG (1)

So stop quoting the trolls so we don't all have to read their posts over and over
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February 22, 2018, 02:23:18 AM
Last edit: February 22, 2018, 02:42:22 AM by RoomBot

24777$ prediction game   

Crikey!

How much I gotta buy to make this happen?
Quote
09/03/2018 Roombot

 Grin
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February 22, 2018, 02:26:00 AM

What is bitcoin

A  purely   "peer-to-peer"   version   of   "electronic   cash"   allowing   "online   payments"   to   be   sent   "directly   from   one   party   to   another"   without   going   through   a   financial    institution.  


that's it!!!

make of it what you will

its all up to you

 
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February 22, 2018, 02:27:32 AM

Quote
JayJuanGee post



Can you be more specific you hate-filled nutjob?   Probably not, because you don't really have anything to contribute beyond your various non-topical talking points.

JayJuanGee, can I interest you in a few trillion dollars of Jewish treasuries?

Well, if you would interact with me on the first question, then perhaps I would be willing to entertain the idea of interacting you with further questions

HOWEVER


YOU FUCKING TURD




you did not even address my first question before going on to asking an additional question.

You quasi-incoherent delusional trolling FUCK!!!!!!   Roll Eyes


AHHHH.... Good Morning!!! ... Cheesy Cheesy

That moment of the morning when you have the pleasant surprise to find JJG fighting with the windmills.  Cheesy Cheesy


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February 22, 2018, 02:31:01 AM


 If we divide the current value into the exchange glitch number we get

 ~1,904,761,904 Bitcoins?

 #Helluvaglitch!


I wonder what would have happened if he simply purchased close to his daily withdrawal max, then tried to withdraw.
The poor bastard might have pulled it off, lol
Which only leaves one of two conclusions. Either he was being an honest guy and just wanted to provide us all with some lulz. Or he's too much of a moron to exploit and cheat. I'm hoping for the former, but given the average forum user I would probably have to put my money on the latter.


Quote
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
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February 22, 2018, 02:31:11 AM



Crikey!

How much I gotta buy to make this happen?
Quote
09/03/2018 Roombot

 Grin

Well, I am sure if you had a cool $100 Million USD or about 10000 BTC, you could probably move this market in a direction more to your liking. A friendship with either Barry of DCG or one of the CEOs of Bitfinex would probably be most helpful as well.
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February 22, 2018, 02:32:14 AM

I know offtopic posts are frowned upon here, and some topics are more off than other, but I'll risk it.

Have you heard about cryptocurrencies? Well there's this nifty thing called bitcoin, it's my favorite.
It's holding 10.5 k-ish.


What is that supposed to mean?  You are bullish and hoping, or what?

Let me ask you a semi-personal question which is a kind of after-the-fact assessment regarding how you faired through our dip down to $6k?  Are you of the opinion that you largely ran out of money to buy BTC between $6k and $8k, even though you were able to buy some BTC in those price ranges?  Were you able to adjust some of your strategy in order to possibly better prepare in the future, or are you largely hoping that we are out of this downward price pickle?

Let me report my own personal scenario from the mid-September 2017 40% correction down from $4,980 to $2,970 - which was that after going through that situation, I had to readjust a considerable amount of my preparations, which actually caused me to oversell a bit from our BTC rebounding back up from $2,970, and really I did not feel that I completely recuperated until we started to break upwards back into new ATHs.. and then the icing on the cake restructuring came for me around 2x higher in the $10k arena and further more when we passed $15k which allowed a fuckload of restructuring and even added cockiness....

So, I am anticipating that even though you are making recovery plans from the unexpected over correction of 70% down to $5,920 that you are going to be in a much better position to really restructure your plan as BTC gets back up and maybe even becoming more solid in your approach as we assume the ATH again (assuming that we accomplish such either this year or a worse bull case scenario would be that it takes longer than a year to get above ATH again).... yeah, yeah, yeah, Beara readers, I understand also that there are also bear scenarios that could cause worse outcomes, even though I believe that a lot of us in this thread, including yours truly put a bit more weight on the probability of bull scenarios in the coming year rather than bear scenarios.. and that is part of the reason that we are in bitcoin and part of the reason why we get so freaking excited about bitcoin.
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February 22, 2018, 02:40:24 AM



The average Aussie bogan is far better off than the average Murican peckerwood.  For starters minimum wage is A$18.29 which is US$14.25.  
 

Doesn't Australia have incredibly high tax rates?

Seems to be about the same as the US after counting state and local taxes.
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February 22, 2018, 02:42:33 AM

What is bitcoin

A  purely   "peer-to-peer"   version   of   "electronic   cash"   allowing   "online   payments"   to   be   sent   "directly   from   one   party   to   another"   without   going   through   a   financial    institution.  


that's it!!!

make of it what you will

its all up to you


GET the fuck out of here with your Bcash shill phraseological attempt at trying to confine bitcoin to some kind of definition.    Roll Eyes    Tongue
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February 22, 2018, 02:43:45 AM

There's a lot of layers here. As just one example, how much channel state is exposed to outsiders to allow such to police random actors. But I'll reserved detailed discussion until after I land.

It's a complete fraud for mainstream adoption.  

First people say everyone needs to run a bitcoin node because that will make it decentralized even though mining is designed to completely centralize, now your 80yr old grandmother is supposed to not only figure out how to use the vastly more complicated LN and have 2000 channels open at once to the dentist, grocery store, and random cat food dispensery she visits sometimes out of town, but she also needs to divide her entire bank account split into 2000 different piles, lock them into those separate channels that can't be combined to spend at once, then hire a 3rd party to watch the channels for her HAHA.

This shit is a complete scam for mainstream adoption UNLESS you turn it into a hub and spoke replica of the banking system that already exists where there's only a few large bank nodes and ALL transactions are routed through them.  In other words, the cashless society control grid the bankers always wanted.  

This is why I do not trust a single fucking idiot in the entire bitcoin space.  There is no way in hell the developers or people who work on LN don't know this.  It's unworkable any other way.

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