Bitcoin Forum
August 08, 2020, 05:26:12 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.20.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: How much of your corn do you plan on cashing out in the next massive bull run?
None - 22 (18.6%)
1-10% - 15 (12.7%)
11-20% - 14 (11.9%)
21-30% - 16 (13.6%)
31-40% - 6 (5.1%)
41-50% - 12 (10.2%)
51-60% - 9 (7.6%)
61-70% - 5 (4.2%)
71-80% - 4 (3.4%)
81-90% - 2 (1.7%)
91-99% - 3 (2.5%)
100% - 10 (8.5%)
Total Voters: 118

Pages: « 1 ... 20470 20471 20472 20473 20474 20475 20476 20477 20478 20479 20480 20481 20482 20483 20484 20485 20486 20487 20488 20489 20490 20491 20492 20493 20494 20495 20496 20497 20498 20499 20500 20501 20502 20503 20504 20505 20506 20507 20508 20509 20510 20511 20512 20513 20514 20515 20516 20517 20518 20519 [20520] 20521 20522 20523 20524 20525 20526 20527 20528 20529 20530 20531 20532 20533 20534 20535 20536 20537 20538 20539 20540 20541 20542 20543 20544 20545 20546 20547 20548 20549 20550 20551 20552 20553 20554 20555 20556 20557 20558 20559 20560 20561 20562 20563 20564 20565 20566 20567 20568 20569 20570 ... 27087 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21784927 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2338
Merit: 3032


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
June 13, 2018, 12:14:22 AM

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

I'm not a programmer, but I am imagining that you are contemplating some kind of algorithm that takes from the posted words in the WO thread to give each poster a speculation direction score or price prediction accuracy score?

That seems to be an even more difficult algorithm than programming a chartbuddy 2, which has been lacking in this thread for more than two years since RichieT's "rage quit." 
1596864372
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1596864372

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1596864372
Reply with quote  #2

1596864372
Report to moderator
1596864372
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1596864372

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1596864372
Reply with quote  #2

1596864372
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1596864372
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1596864372

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1596864372
Reply with quote  #2

1596864372
Report to moderator
centralbanksequalsbombs
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 378
Merit: 274

Bitcoin :open immutable decentralized global fair


View Profile
June 13, 2018, 12:15:58 AM

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

Great idea - thank you Theymos;

A couple of suggested criterion for anyone working on this:
1) biggest issue here is if someone games the code to manipulate results - thus OPEN SOURCE
2) price prediction must be matched with a time frame - once price hit, +1 score? or would those game this by playing volatility and pick a price close to current price? (must be atleast a # % away from current price?)
3) negative scores for incorrect predictions
BitcoinNewbie15
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 574
Merit: 292

Bitcoin isn't a bubble. It's the pin!


View Profile
June 13, 2018, 12:21:16 AM

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

That seems to be an even more difficult algorithm than programming a chartbuddy 2, which has been lacking in this thread for more than two years since RichieT's "rage quit." 

Thank you lol, I have finally gotten my answer on this. Chartbuddy used to post in this thread all the time years ago, and when I finally came back to the forum recently I noticed it was gone. I have been wondering what happened to it!

At least now I have some closure  Cry lol
d_eddie
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1134
Merit: 936



View Profile
June 13, 2018, 12:22:59 AM

Yes, I understand that some folks like to gamble, so I suppose to each his own in that regard.  Personally, I get much more comfort from attempting to employ a strategy that aims to lessen the gambling component, to the extent feasible and reasonable.
I concur. I found a way to move in that direction that is working for me at the moment. My safety short, dictated by dreams of mammoths, has been exactly that: an attempt to lessen the gambling component, more than an actual bet.

A successful attempt, I should add. Had it gone really wrong, I'd have lost some 20-30% of my play money - which isn't that much anyway. I purposefully set my stops in advance (ballpark, tweakable stops) to avoid falling prey to emotions. Luckily, it went well. The mammoths weren't playing games with me. I more than doubled my play money, and I haven't even fully closed the position yet. Maybe I'll manage to rebuild a larger position (at a lower, more dangerous entry level), but only if we see a few up runs - and if I get a little lucky in timing.

My language is that of a gambler, granted  - "dangerous... if... little lucky...", but the attitude is more like that of a safety game in bridge: You give up the best possible outcome to mitigate the worst. For my short to fail, the price had to go over 12k. Isn't this kind of "bet" sensible?

vapourminer
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2954
Merit: 1543

what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


View Profile
June 13, 2018, 12:27:22 AM

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

I'm not a programmer, but I am imagining that you are contemplating some kind of algorithm that takes from the posted words in the WO thread to give each poster a speculation direction score or price prediction accuracy score?

That seems to be an even more difficult algorithm than programming a chartbuddy 2, which has been lacking in this thread for more than two years since RichieT's "rage quit." 

cool idea.

could be as simple as parsing for the phrase "my speculation price: $xxxxx" or something in a post. everyone who wants to play just adds that phrase and a price in their post.

unless im reading this wrong, which is always a strong possibility with me.
Last of the V8s
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1554
Merit: 3915


Be a bank


View Profile
June 13, 2018, 12:28:02 AM

centralbanksequalsbombs
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 378
Merit: 274

Bitcoin :open immutable decentralized global fair


View Profile
June 13, 2018, 12:36:46 AM

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

Great idea - thank you Theymos;

A couple of suggested criterion for anyone working on this:
1) biggest issue here is if someone games the code to manipulate results - thus OPEN SOURCE
2) price prediction must be matched with a time frame - once price hit, +1 score? or would those game this by playing volatility and pick a price close to current price? (must be atleast a # % away from current price?)
3) negative scores for incorrect predictions

On the topic of predictions, lightning network for Bitcoin will fan more fire for the blazing Bitcoin revolution....I predict Bitcoin at 14k within 18months, 20k within 26months, 35k within 48months, 50k within 60months

Onto scamcoins update TODAY:



UPDATE:


as noted above 'combination' = BTG + litecoin + monero + vertcoin + groestlcoin
predicted to be become 5x BCH's market value

Predicting Bitcoin Cash (BCH) will be the worst and will fall in relative terms while everything else grows relative to BCH.

Real Bitcoin is most superior in store of value now and going forward - lightning network emerging!

Lightning network and Bitcoin's superiority will be the story of the year. Altcoins have experienced and may likely continue to experience a relative death.

Will reiterate - great entry point to buy Bitcoin at these levels.
4rt3m
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 756
Merit: 146



View Profile
June 13, 2018, 12:43:34 AM

Just start with a forum competition: big announce for all forum including locals, make Google form with price prediction at the end of the week and username > Google spreadsheets. Prediction +/- 5% of actual price gives 3 points, 10% – 2 points, 15% – 1 point, less than 1% is 5 points. At the end of the month 50% highest score owners goes in the next round (month). Top 10 receives a traders rank with 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points system.
theymos
Administrator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3836
Merit: 7876


View Profile
June 13, 2018, 12:48:56 AM

I'm not a programmer, but I am imagining that you are contemplating some kind of algorithm that takes from the posted words in the WO thread to give each poster a speculation direction score or price prediction accuracy score?

No, I'm imagining a game that's at least somewhat separate from normal posts. At the very least you'd have to specifically indicate your prediction in your post contents so that the system could understand. (But I'm really imagining a separate website that's not linked to posts.)

Interpreting post contents is too difficult. Modern AI is powerful enough that you could probably do it with >90% accuracy, but it'd still be too inaccurate to actually be satisfying, and designing and training an AI to be even halfway decent would take tons of time.

2) price prediction must be matched with a time frame - once price hit, +1 score? or would those game this by playing volatility and pick a price close to current price? (must be atleast a # % away from current price?)

There are many possible ways of doing it. If I were to create the game, I think I'd do it in the style of parimutuel betting, but using play-money chips. So:
 - If you're willing to bet at least 10 chips, you could create a new prediction, like "I predict that the price will be between x and y at time t".
 - People could bet on either side of existing predictions.
 - Once the prediction is decided, the chips of the wrong side would be distributed amongst the betters on the right side, somewhat-proportionally to their respective bets. However, the rewards formula would need to give more reward to people who placed bets earlier than others. (You could copy the rewards formula from one of the existing parimutuel betting sites.)
 - Whenever you have less than 10 chips, you're given chips so that you have 10 chips. So even if you're constantly wrong, you can still keep playing.
 - Your speculation score equals your current number of chips.

It sounds like it'd be fun to write the game as I described, but it'd probably take me ~40 hours, and I just can't spend that kind of time on such a niche feature.

Just start with a forum competition: big announce for all forum including locals, make Google form with price prediction at the end of the week and username > Google spreadsheets. Prediction +/- 5% of actual price gives 3 points, 10% – 2 points, 15% – 1 point, less than 1% is 5 points. At the end of the month 50% highest score owners goes in the next round (month). Top 10 receives a traders rank with 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points system.

Something like that would be fine, but I don't want to run any manual competitions. If someone wants to do that, you'd just have to create an unchanging URL from which the forum can automatically import scores.
Vin
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1114
Merit: 1008


View Profile
June 13, 2018, 12:49:11 AM

Sold all of my BTC now.
 Undecided

This is the end.
Raja_MBZ
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1610
Merit: 1383


Any questions related to my signature site? PM me!


View Profile
June 13, 2018, 12:52:55 AM

Sold all of my BTC now.
 Undecided

This is the end.

A message like this from a "legendary" confirms this really is the bottom.

EDIT: seems like you're a "hero" but how in the world you've more than a thousand merit and still just a Hero?
Vin
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1114
Merit: 1008


View Profile
June 13, 2018, 12:55:22 AM

Sold all of my BTC now.
 Undecided
This is the end.

Do you own one of these perchance ?



I like this hat : )
kingcolex
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2282
Merit: 1248



View Profile
June 13, 2018, 12:56:40 AM

Sold all of my BTC now.
 Undecided

This is the end.

A message like this from a "legendary" confirms this really is the bottom.

EDIT: seems like you're a "hero" but how in the world you've more than a thousand merit and still just a Hero?
sure does seem like that would be it when everyone else is freaked out.
Vin
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1114
Merit: 1008


View Profile
June 13, 2018, 12:56:48 AM

Sold all of my BTC now.
 Undecided

This is the end.

A message like this from a "legendary" confirms this really is the bottom.

EDIT: seems like you're a "hero" but how in the world you've more than a thousand merit and still just a Hero?

I don`t not know @Raja

Just make a joke nothing else.

*Sorry for this*
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2338
Merit: 3032


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
June 13, 2018, 01:07:23 AM
Merited by BitcoinNewbie15 (1)

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

That seems to be an even more difficult algorithm than programming a chartbuddy 2, which has been lacking in this thread for more than two years since RichieT's "rage quit." 

Thank you lol, I have finally gotten my answer on this. Chartbuddy used to post in this thread all the time years ago, and when I finally came back to the forum recently I noticed it was gone. I have been wondering what happened to it!

At least now I have some closure  Cry lol

It was surely popular for the whole WO community, but apparently, it was not so popular for any individual as to motivate such individual (or bot) to program and run a new chartbuddy.
jojo69
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1834
Merit: 2480


no FOMO


View Profile
June 13, 2018, 01:22:07 AM

fleshed out game score idea

I like it
bones261
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1806
Merit: 1823



View Profile
June 13, 2018, 01:25:31 AM


The social engineers are about. This thing is gonna tumble. I can feel it in my bones now.


I swear that I have nothing to do with this bear market.  Angry You're not catching that feeling from me!
windjc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2044
Merit: 1057


View Profile
June 13, 2018, 01:48:30 AM

Sold all of my BTC now.
 Undecided

This is the end.

Let's see. You came onto this forum in May 2014. Pretty much in the beginning of bitcoin's longest bear market. You watched the price go from 700 to 150 over 18 months. And now, as the price is threatening to break down below 6k you claim this is the end (of something whatever it is) and that you sold all your BTC (I have to assume a small amount).

I can't tell whether you are trolling or not. But you are being silly.
infofront
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2100
Merit: 2106


Shitcoin Minimalist


View Profile
June 13, 2018, 01:51:45 AM



Welp, you heard it.
Vlada69
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 238
Merit: 5

In Kano we trust


View Profile WWW
June 13, 2018, 01:56:01 AM

Third time 6k is the charm Wink Either we will go towards 10k+ but we also might test 3k before that.
Pages: « 1 ... 20470 20471 20472 20473 20474 20475 20476 20477 20478 20479 20480 20481 20482 20483 20484 20485 20486 20487 20488 20489 20490 20491 20492 20493 20494 20495 20496 20497 20498 20499 20500 20501 20502 20503 20504 20505 20506 20507 20508 20509 20510 20511 20512 20513 20514 20515 20516 20517 20518 20519 [20520] 20521 20522 20523 20524 20525 20526 20527 20528 20529 20530 20531 20532 20533 20534 20535 20536 20537 20538 20539 20540 20541 20542 20543 20544 20545 20546 20547 20548 20549 20550 20551 20552 20553 20554 20555 20556 20557 20558 20559 20560 20561 20562 20563 20564 20565 20566 20567 20568 20569 20570 ... 27087 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!