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Question: June 30 24-Hour High:
<$4,000 - 9 (7.6%)
$4,000-$4,500 - 0 (0%)
$4,500-$5,000 - 7 (5.9%)
$5,000-$5,500 - 6 (5.1%)
$5,500-$6,000 - 13 (11%)
$6,000-$6,500 - 13 (11%)
$6,500-$7,000 - 9 (7.6%)
$7,000-$7,500 - 12 (10.2%)
$7,500-$8,000 - 17 (14.4%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 9 (7.6%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 4 (3.4%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 0 (0%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 2 (1.7%)
>$10,000 - 17 (14.4%)
Total Voters: 118

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 20305372 times)
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Rosewater Foundation
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June 13, 2018, 12:12:47 AM

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

Doom isn't really a number. This is why I have such a hard time with the poll we already have. Undecided
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JayJuanGee
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June 13, 2018, 12:14:22 AM

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

I'm not a programmer, but I am imagining that you are contemplating some kind of algorithm that takes from the posted words in the WO thread to give each poster a speculation direction score or price prediction accuracy score?

That seems to be an even more difficult algorithm than programming a chartbuddy 2, which has been lacking in this thread for more than two years since RichieT's "rage quit." 
centralbanksequalsbombs
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June 13, 2018, 12:15:58 AM

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

Great idea - thank you Theymos;

A couple of suggested criterion for anyone working on this:
1) biggest issue here is if someone games the code to manipulate results - thus OPEN SOURCE
2) price prediction must be matched with a time frame - once price hit, +1 score? or would those game this by playing volatility and pick a price close to current price? (must be atleast a # % away from current price?)
3) negative scores for incorrect predictions
BitcoinNewbie15
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June 13, 2018, 12:21:16 AM

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

That seems to be an even more difficult algorithm than programming a chartbuddy 2, which has been lacking in this thread for more than two years since RichieT's "rage quit." 

Thank you lol, I have finally gotten my answer on this. Chartbuddy used to post in this thread all the time years ago, and when I finally came back to the forum recently I noticed it was gone. I have been wondering what happened to it!

At least now I have some closure  Cry lol
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June 13, 2018, 12:22:59 AM

Yes, I understand that some folks like to gamble, so I suppose to each his own in that regard.  Personally, I get much more comfort from attempting to employ a strategy that aims to lessen the gambling component, to the extent feasible and reasonable.
I concur. I found a way to move in that direction that is working for me at the moment. My safety short, dictated by dreams of mammoths, has been exactly that: an attempt to lessen the gambling component, more than an actual bet.

A successful attempt, I should add. Had it gone really wrong, I'd have lost some 20-30% of my play money - which isn't that much anyway. I purposefully set my stops in advance (ballpark, tweakable stops) to avoid falling prey to emotions. Luckily, it went well. The mammoths weren't playing games with me. I more than doubled my play money, and I haven't even fully closed the position yet. Maybe I'll manage to rebuild a larger position (at a lower, more dangerous entry level), but only if we see a few up runs - and if I get a little lucky in timing.

My language is that of a gambler, granted  - "dangerous... if... little lucky...", but the attitude is more like that of a safety game in bridge: You give up the best possible outcome to mitigate the worst. For my short to fail, the price had to go over 12k. Isn't this kind of "bet" sensible?

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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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June 13, 2018, 12:27:22 AM

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

I'm not a programmer, but I am imagining that you are contemplating some kind of algorithm that takes from the posted words in the WO thread to give each poster a speculation direction score or price prediction accuracy score?

That seems to be an even more difficult algorithm than programming a chartbuddy 2, which has been lacking in this thread for more than two years since RichieT's "rage quit." 

cool idea.

could be as simple as parsing for the phrase "my speculation price: $xxxxx" or something in a post. everyone who wants to play just adds that phrase and a price in their post.

unless im reading this wrong, which is always a strong possibility with me.
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June 13, 2018, 12:28:02 AM

centralbanksequalsbombs
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June 13, 2018, 12:36:46 AM

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

Great idea - thank you Theymos;

A couple of suggested criterion for anyone working on this:
1) biggest issue here is if someone games the code to manipulate results - thus OPEN SOURCE
2) price prediction must be matched with a time frame - once price hit, +1 score? or would those game this by playing volatility and pick a price close to current price? (must be atleast a # % away from current price?)
3) negative scores for incorrect predictions

On the topic of predictions, lightning network for Bitcoin will fan more fire for the blazing Bitcoin revolution....I predict Bitcoin at 14k within 18months, 20k within 26months, 35k within 48months, 50k within 60months

Onto scamcoins update TODAY:



UPDATE:


as noted above 'combination' = BTG + litecoin + monero + vertcoin + groestlcoin
predicted to be become 5x BCH's market value

Predicting Bitcoin Cash (BCH) will be the worst and will fall in relative terms while everything else grows relative to BCH.

Real Bitcoin is most superior in store of value now and going forward - lightning network emerging!

Lightning network and Bitcoin's superiority will be the story of the year. Altcoins have experienced and may likely continue to experience a relative death.

Will reiterate - great entry point to buy Bitcoin at these levels.
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June 13, 2018, 12:43:34 AM

Just start with a forum competition: big announce for all forum including locals, make Google form with price prediction at the end of the week and username > Google spreadsheets. Prediction +/- 5% of actual price gives 3 points, 10% – 2 points, 15% – 1 point, less than 1% is 5 points. At the end of the month 50% highest score owners goes in the next round (month). Top 10 receives a traders rank with 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points system.
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June 13, 2018, 12:48:56 AM

I'm not a programmer, but I am imagining that you are contemplating some kind of algorithm that takes from the posted words in the WO thread to give each poster a speculation direction score or price prediction accuracy score?

No, I'm imagining a game that's at least somewhat separate from normal posts. At the very least you'd have to specifically indicate your prediction in your post contents so that the system could understand. (But I'm really imagining a separate website that's not linked to posts.)

Interpreting post contents is too difficult. Modern AI is powerful enough that you could probably do it with >90% accuracy, but it'd still be too inaccurate to actually be satisfying, and designing and training an AI to be even halfway decent would take tons of time.

2) price prediction must be matched with a time frame - once price hit, +1 score? or would those game this by playing volatility and pick a price close to current price? (must be atleast a # % away from current price?)

There are many possible ways of doing it. If I were to create the game, I think I'd do it in the style of parimutuel betting, but using play-money chips. So:
 - If you're willing to bet at least 10 chips, you could create a new prediction, like "I predict that the price will be between x and y at time t".
 - People could bet on either side of existing predictions.
 - Once the prediction is decided, the chips of the wrong side would be distributed amongst the betters on the right side, somewhat-proportionally to their respective bets. However, the rewards formula would need to give more reward to people who placed bets earlier than others. (You could copy the rewards formula from one of the existing parimutuel betting sites.)
 - Whenever you have less than 10 chips, you're given chips so that you have 10 chips. So even if you're constantly wrong, you can still keep playing.
 - Your speculation score equals your current number of chips.

It sounds like it'd be fun to write the game as I described, but it'd probably take me ~40 hours, and I just can't spend that kind of time on such a niche feature.

Just start with a forum competition: big announce for all forum including locals, make Google form with price prediction at the end of the week and username > Google spreadsheets. Prediction +/- 5% of actual price gives 3 points, 10% – 2 points, 15% – 1 point, less than 1% is 5 points. At the end of the month 50% highest score owners goes in the next round (month). Top 10 receives a traders rank with 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points system.

Something like that would be fine, but I don't want to run any manual competitions. If someone wants to do that, you'd just have to create an unchanging URL from which the forum can automatically import scores.
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June 13, 2018, 12:49:11 AM

Sold all of my BTC now.
 Undecided

This is the end.
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June 13, 2018, 12:51:39 AM

Sold all of my BTC now.
 Undecided
This is the end.

Do you own one of these perchance ?

Raja_MBZ
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June 13, 2018, 12:52:55 AM

Sold all of my BTC now.
 Undecided

This is the end.

A message like this from a "legendary" confirms this really is the bottom.

EDIT: seems like you're a "hero" but how in the world you've more than a thousand merit and still just a Hero?
Vin
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June 13, 2018, 12:55:22 AM

Sold all of my BTC now.
 Undecided
This is the end.

Do you own one of these perchance ?



I like this hat : )
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June 13, 2018, 12:56:40 AM

Sold all of my BTC now.
 Undecided

This is the end.

A message like this from a "legendary" confirms this really is the bottom.

EDIT: seems like you're a "hero" but how in the world you've more than a thousand merit and still just a Hero?
sure does seem like that would be it when everyone else is freaked out.
Vin
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June 13, 2018, 12:56:48 AM

Sold all of my BTC now.
 Undecided

This is the end.

A message like this from a "legendary" confirms this really is the bottom.

EDIT: seems like you're a "hero" but how in the world you've more than a thousand merit and still just a Hero?

I don`t not know @Raja

Just make a joke nothing else.

*Sorry for this*
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June 13, 2018, 01:07:23 AM
Merited by BitcoinNewbie15 (1)

Meta idea: since people are always making price predictions, I was thinking that it'd be cool to add a "Speculation score" number under your posts/merit/activity while in the speculation section, with the score based on some continuously-running price prediction game. I probably don't have time to develop a game like that, though. But if someone else creates it off-site with the necessary APIs, your site could provide the scores for the forum. Anyone want to create it?

That seems to be an even more difficult algorithm than programming a chartbuddy 2, which has been lacking in this thread for more than two years since RichieT's "rage quit." 

Thank you lol, I have finally gotten my answer on this. Chartbuddy used to post in this thread all the time years ago, and when I finally came back to the forum recently I noticed it was gone. I have been wondering what happened to it!

At least now I have some closure  Cry lol

It was surely popular for the whole WO community, but apparently, it was not so popular for any individual as to motivate such individual (or bot) to program and run a new chartbuddy.
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June 13, 2018, 01:22:07 AM

fleshed out game score idea

I like it
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June 13, 2018, 01:25:31 AM


The social engineers are about. This thing is gonna tumble. I can feel it in my bones now.


I swear that I have nothing to do with this bear market.  Angry You're not catching that feeling from me!
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June 13, 2018, 01:48:30 AM

Sold all of my BTC now.
 Undecided

This is the end.

Let's see. You came onto this forum in May 2014. Pretty much in the beginning of bitcoin's longest bear market. You watched the price go from 700 to 150 over 18 months. And now, as the price is threatening to break down below 6k you claim this is the end (of something whatever it is) and that you sold all your BTC (I have to assume a small amount).

I can't tell whether you are trolling or not. But you are being silly.
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