Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[infofront]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Whole of BTC-world knows this story and everybody is with Elwar, just so Nice to read and to hear he’s ok....

GoGoGo Elwar and be safe!!!

Has a major media outlet picked it up yet?

I heard a story on NPR about it today.

I am surprised by a belligerent reaction to what is essentially building a floating house.
Not sure that I understand this.

Me either. What's the difference between that and an anchored sailboat?

[jojo69]

Me either. What's the difference between that and an anchored sailboat?

Elwar's rhetoric

[Retina]

Bitcoin - What's is Your Plan If That Guy is Wrong?

One day Bitcoin is breaking out for the next leg higher, and the bull run has begun, two days later, the sky is falling, sell now and buy lower. You have to be kidding. The best was one group I follow on Facebook as a sentiment indicator, who sold recently and is posting "where are you adding next, I have my levels, where are yours?" Ohh brother. You think the market cares about your levels? What if it doesn't get to your levels then what?

First if you are trading that is it, fine. You are all in, all out, and at the end of the year, you made 10k, you pay your taxes on it. Fair enough, I trade, I know many that trade, and that is pretty much the strategy. Yet investing is different. If you are long term and looking to hold for the long run, or a significant level like $1,000,000 than does it matter if you bought at 4k or 5k? I know, that is not my call, Wences Casares of Xapo CEO and a director of PayPal gave it at least a 50% chance of hitting that level in 7-10 years. Hey who am I to argue with him? Sure I think it is a moonshot, I really don't have a 7-10 year target, but regardless in the next 3-5 years I believe it will be higher. Maybe 50k who knows, I remember Lennart telling me back in the day when it was $1 the thought of it hitting $100 was crazy. I guess 20k was ludicrous! One note "don't push against a bull market".

If you bought 1 Bitcoin at 3500 you might be thinking, wow now is the time to trim it off. If this was a swing trade, or a position trade where you had a specific target than fine. However if you are an investor, and you are thinking, I will sell at 5200 and buy back at 4500, you might be disappointed in the outcome.

First Taxes:

Using a moderate tax rate of 22% on capital gains, your taxable income from this trade is 5200-3500 or 1700. Multiplying by 22% your tax liability is $375. Subtracting $375 from 5200 you get 4826. So Bitcoin has to move below 4826 for the trade to actually work. Ok the initial support is at 4700 and main support is at 4500. So you have the potential of realized gains of $126 at the low end, and $326 at the high end. If you are adding inventory you can buy a whopping 0.072 Bitcoins increasing your stack from 1 to 1.072. Hey every penny counts. But lets look at the other side of the coin.

Bitcoin rallies to 6000 from here, and now you are sitting with no Bitcoin or half a stack. The Bi-Polar analysts go bull crazy and you buy in reducing your inventory to 0.80 including your tax liability. So what is your risk to reward here? You are risking 0.20 Bitcoin to make 0.08 Bitcoin , uhhhhh not so good. This is the reality and why many continue to erode their portfolio. Do not push against a bull. You either believe Bitcoin is going up in the long term or down in the long term. Position that way and build an inventory.

You can do this by position trading. Say you own 2 Bitcoin and have 5k available to trade with. You swing or position trade and the capital gains goes into buying more Bitcoin . Valid strategy, I use it, I love it! However if you are just buying and selling based on some bozo on Facebook , or TV that is telling you to get out, and claims to make 3500% a year, you might want to look in the mirror. Wait don't do that I have some cheap island, beach front property in Belize for sale, only 1 Bitcoin , call me at 1-800-4suckas. If I was making 300% every year I would not be posting on Trading View, I would be looking at that new Callaway Driver (boy its nice) and shaking hands with Tiger at the Masters. What a win, that was epic! Bottom line do not make trades investments, and investments trades. You will lose in the long term mixing strategies.

Pessimism Abound:

With so much pessimism and with so many selling their coins bragging how they are geniuses, they are now waiting for the Big Dip. What if it doesn't come?. Bull markets are born in Pessimism and die in Euphoria. Are we Euphoric yet? No we have an abundance of pessimists waiting for a dip to 4500 some even a retest of the low at 3200. Talk about waiting for a water truck in the desert. Now we have used gold as a comparison before, but lets zoom in on the dip in gold .

Source:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/2HvpiCMY-Bitcoin-What-s-is-Your-Plan-If-That-Guy-is-Wrong/

[Phil_S]

I am surprised by a belligerent reaction to what is essentially building a floating house.
Not sure that I understand this.

Me either. What's the difference between that and an anchored sailboat?

Probably the question of rules and regulations, as usual.

https://www.facebook.com/patri.friedman/posts/10157265003694766

2) Even the actual "high seas" (roughly 200+ nm from land) are not a magical realm of freedom where you can just plant a flag and be an independent polity. There are many rules and regulations that apply - including the need to plug into international law through the flagging system (for a vessel) or coastal state approval (for a fixed structure).

[VB1001]

“The bond that links your true family is not one of blood, but of respect and joy in each other's life. Rarely do members of one family grow up under the same roof.”

Yes, just like WO is like a small family, behind a screen but very nice.

I think I need to share this even if I will probably regret doing so.

[...]

yeah that was just the thing to wake up to sipping my morning coffee.

trying to erase that image from my mind now. wish me luck..

Hey, I just felt I had to share my wisdom!

My balls feel great today, even after an even harder day than yesterday... I just arrived since early morning.

I have always said alcohol is the best thing ever invented. Only second to Bitcoin maybe.

Ok, nice story about your balls...

But where you say it was the party?

There are more effective remedies for these cases.

[Retina]

Same I want to add cap photo my profile but I can not find any option.  

[TrumpD]

Same I want to add cap photo my profile but I can not find any option.  

You would be able to find such an option once your merit will be 100 and you will be a full member on here.

[dyask]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Whole of BTC-world knows this story and everybody is with Elwar, just so Nice to read and to hear he’s ok....

GoGoGo Elwar and be safe!!!

Has a major media outlet picked it up yet?

I heard a story on NPR about it today.

I am surprised by a belligerent reaction to what is essentially building a floating house.
Not sure that I understand this.

Me either. What's the difference between that and an anchored sailboat?

The floating house is more like a prison than an anchored sailboat. 

[VB1001]

Same I want to add cap photo my profile but I can not find any option.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2834773.0

[El duderino_]

PUMP UP THE VOLUME

Pump UP everything ....

Good morning WO’s and yet another very fine day @belgium

Keep BTC going...

[Retina]

PUMP UP THE VOLUME

Pump UP everything ....

Good morning WO’s and yet another very fine day @belgium

Keep BTC going...

Good morning Big Honorable brother  

[El duderino_]

^
Don’t let me blush 

[Paashaas]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Whole of BTC-world knows this story and everybody is with Elwar, just so Nice to read and to hear he’s ok....

GoGoGo Elwar and be safe!!!

It comforts me to see Elwar and his wife are doing well.

Death penalty? Life sentence? for a seastead? Thailand is way to dangerous.

Elwar should building seasteads elswhere whithout any attacks from goverments.

[HairyMaclairy]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Whole of BTC-world knows this story and everybody is with Elwar, just so Nice to read and to hear he’s ok....

GoGoGo Elwar and be safe!!!

Has a major media outlet picked it up yet?

I heard a story on NPR about it today.

I am surprised by a belligerent reaction to what is essentially building a floating house.
Not sure that I understand this.

Me either. What's the difference between that and an anchored sailboat?

Maybe Thailand is full of ladyboispussies scared that it will set a precedent and China will come building a ton of floating bases off the coast?

Bingo.  

International law says that if you can’t be bothered defending something, it obviously doesn’t matter to you, and  it’s ok for others to take it.  

That’s why the US patrols around the Chinese bases on the Spratlys.  To stop them shutting down the waterway.

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Whole of BTC-world knows this story and everybody is with Elwar, just so Nice to read and to hear he’s ok....

GoGoGo Elwar and be safe!!!

It comforts me to see Elwar and his wife are doing well.

Death penalty? Life sentence? for a seastead? Thailand is way to dangerous.

Elwar should building seasteads elswhere whithout any attacks from goverments.

Indeed but more important one should be able to do it where he wants with no trouble from anyone ...0

[VB1001]

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1119358330739331074

New #bitcoin chart: Stock-to-Flow Multiple

Like the Mayer Multiple (bitcoin price / 200w moving average), SF Multiple (bitcoin price / SF model price) indicates tops and bottoms.
- ATH 2011, 2013, 2017 is 3-13x
- bottom after ATH = 50%
- after halvings price lags SF model price

https://twitter.com/gravitywave2/status/1119310237658439681

An alternative view of @100trillionUSD's stock-to-flow/price relationship showing how price oscillates around the fundamental prediction of scarcity-based market value. Big thanks to planB for doing the work on that, and to @saifedean for popularizing the SF concept.

It's happening, history will repeat itself again, beautiful graphics.

Good Morning WO,s !!!

[Toxic2040]

one hour short fibs because I know you boys are hungry. #btd

1h


look at those lips...magnificent  #dyor
2h

#happy420

[Paashaas]

It's happening, history will repeat itself again, beautiful graphics.

Good Morning WO,s !!!

Nice to wake up with a satisfying graph.

This one is from 2012 untill now, i expect a big green candle around 2020/2021.

[jojo69]

[Kylapoiss]

Alcohol(ism) is fun.

You wake up at 5AM, feeling shitty as f, open one beer and the shit is gone, just rainbows.

Summer is coming.

Fun.

I wonder how I managed to be sober for almost half a year.

Seriously though, I enjoy my beer as much as any dude, I've drank six tonight myself but alcoholism is no joke. You don't want to get liver disease or colon cancer, if it's serious you need to get help. There's no shame in that, life is beautiful, I mean look how much fun we have shitposting with complete strangers everyday.

Good morning WO bros!

Oh don't worry, I have it under control, been writing long posts about it in here. I was sober for quite a long time, just a week off now and that obviously goes with drinking every day. I'll be sober for 2 months again from next week, need to get that body ripped!

At least I admit what I am, easier to keep it under control that way.

Thanks for the worries anyway

Time to open another beer.