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Question: May 18 Bitcoin Closing Price (Stamp):
$0 - 1 (0.7%)
<$5,000 - 7 (4.6%)
$5,000-$5,500 - 2 (1.3%)
$5,500-$6,000 - 0 (0%)
$6,000-$6,500 - 5 (3.3%)
$6,500-$7,000 - 15 (9.9%)
$7,000-$7,500 - 17 (11.3%)
$7,500-$8,000 - 24 (15.9%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 18 (11.9%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 15 (9.9%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 10 (6.6%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 7 (4.6%)
$10,000-$20,000 - 16 (10.6%)
>$20,000 - 14 (9.3%)
Total Voters: 151

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21167488 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (23 posts by 12 users deleted.)
JimboToronto
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April 04, 2019, 02:38:55 AM
Merited by bones261 (2), cAPSLOCK (1), HI-TEC99 (1)

Lawl.

I get home from the ball game and a few frosties to find we're back to where we were less than half a day ago and some people are acting like the roof fell in.

People are asking if the bull market is over and even Gemtwit has crawled out from under his rock to go weeeeeee.

One tiny correction and whiners are acting like Chicken Little.

It's still well over $5k for Chrissakes. Grow a set.
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jojo69
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April 04, 2019, 03:08:35 AM

How are the Jays looking Jimbo?

Mariners are on FIRE early.
infofront
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April 04, 2019, 03:49:27 AM
Last edit: April 04, 2019, 05:19:29 AM by infofront
Merited by kurious (2), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), Paashaas (1), ChinkyEyes (1), fillippone (1), yoraccoon (1)

Inspired by Kurious' recent post, I'd like to post about some related things I've been thinking about:

It seems there are two schools of thought regarding the bubble cycle we've just begun.

  • That it will be the same length as every other cycle, as dictated by the halvings. Bubble top: late 2021/early 2022
  • Or, that the cycles have been lengthening, and therefore our current cycle will be the longest and hit the top later than in previous cycles. Bubble top: late 2022/early 2023

There's a great debate, on this exact subject, between two of the best analysts on crypto twitter here: https://twitter.com/filbfilb/status/1078316170493734918

It seems that scenario 2 is the consensus among the majority of analysts (and previously myself) - that the next bubble will gain a lower percentage than previous bubbles, and it will take longer. Something like this:



However, there are reasons to believe that may not be the case:

  • Bakkt, ETFs, and institutional adoption are likely to be involved in the next bubble. This alone isn't quite as convincing as it's often made out to be. Institutional adoption almost has to be there to take us to the next level, and is baked into every pricing scenario >$50k IMO.
  • We may be in the third of four four-year cycles (forming a 16-year super cycle). The four-year cycles can be loosely broken down as 4 phases, the four classic market phases: Accumulation, Uptrend, Distribution, Downtrend.



    The 16 year super cycle can be broken down  the same way, which means we've just begun the four-year Distribution phase, which is essentially the topping phase. If our prices follow this model, then the next bubble top will be the blow of top of the blow off top. It will be the mother of all bubbles ($300K+ possible).  This theory is touched on here, with graphs. He says these kind of cycles are often found in other commodities.
  • We're reaching the vertical section of the S-curve. Crypto usage rates are notoriously hard to calculate. Kaspersky recently said that 10% of people have bought something online with crypto. We know there is another portion of crypto users who just speculate and hodl, without ever buying anything. If we put that number of people at 50% (pulling this out of my ass) of people purchasing with crypto, we've got 15% of potential crypto users actually using crypto.



    Of course, since the dawn of the space age, the S curve hasn't looked much like an S:



    Assuming price follows adoption, as it has with every technology which has followed Metcalfe's law that I'm aware of, the crypto twitter/tradingview/bitcointalk seeming consensus of ~$90K-100K is overly conservative.
    Keep in mind, if Bitcoin were Facebook, we'd still be at pre-IPO levels (circa 2009)


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April 04, 2019, 03:51:11 AM

Toxic2040
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April 04, 2019, 04:31:52 AM

The lioness..she hunts.

1h


Buy the dips.
4h

#stronghands'19
jojo69
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April 04, 2019, 04:37:50 AM

re: the blow off top of the blow off top

Another great post infofront, thank you.

but I have to say, it is just this kind of thinking that prevented me from cashing in last time...
JimboToronto
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April 04, 2019, 04:42:11 AM

How are the Jays looking Jimbo?

Mariners are on FIRE early.

The Jays are in a serious rebuild at the moment. They released or traded most of their recent post-season team within the last year or so and traded away their longest tenured player, Keven Pillar, just yesterday for a 21-year-old pitching prospect and a couple of journeymen. In the process they trimmed their payroll from around $150M to about $50M.

Despite that they're 3-4, ahead of both New York and Boston, mainly on the strength of their starting rotation.

We're all waiting for Vlad Guerrero Jr., the #1 prospect in all of baseball to be brought up but that probably won't happen until May to ensure an extra year of team control. Meanwhile they also have highly rated prospects Cavan Biggio and Bo Bichette waiting in the wings. They're kinda where the Yankees were 3 years ago with the Baby Bombers (Judge, Sanchez, etc.) waiting to break through.

Attendance has dropped even more than the payroll. Instead of drawing 40,000 per game, they're lucky to get 10,000 for a weeknight game. They probably get more Jays fans at Safeco Field.  Cheesy Part of that might be the fact that hockey's still going.

I'm staunchly hodling my season ticket seats behind home plate though. Like Bitcoin, the Jays' future is looking very good.
_____

Congrats on your Mariners' 7-1 record. Our 2 teams are almost sisters, being born the same year. Cheers!  Cool
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April 04, 2019, 04:44:06 AM

bitcoin will fall under 3000 soon
never trust this fake pump
to quote President Trump, "WRONG".

Quote
Hueristic
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April 04, 2019, 04:44:33 AM

bitcoin will fall under 3000 soon
never trust this fake pump

These trolls make it so easy to ignore.
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April 04, 2019, 04:55:30 AM

But guys, what's up with the hats? Care to explain?

Homer, I have a priority one override request.

Please get this OG a hat.



 Sorry I'm a little late, I was in a hard-fought bidding war while trying to make the new hat.  It comes with a life-time1 satisfaction guarantee as usual.



avatar-sized



1 life-time satisfaction guarantee is commensurate with the life-time of your satisfaction
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April 04, 2019, 04:58:02 AM
Last edit: April 04, 2019, 06:09:44 AM by mindrust
Merited by Arriemoller (1)

5-6k feels just like 500-600 from 2015-2016. And $3k probably was the $200 which isn't  coming back again.

From now on, assuming it'll follow the same pattern, the price may get stuck between $4k and $6k for a year.

Too cheap to sell after seeing $20k but also at the same time, too expensive to buy after seeing sub $4k not long ago.

This, gentlemen is:

Torture.

Welcome to consolidation.
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April 04, 2019, 05:00:31 AM

god damn homer
mirakal
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April 04, 2019, 05:11:28 AM

bitcoin will fall under 3000 soon
never trust this fake pump

These trolls make it so easy to ignore.

That's alright, we need people like them to make this market more entertaining.
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April 04, 2019, 05:14:24 AM

bitcoin will fall under 3000 soon
never trust this fake pump

These trolls make it so easy to ignore.

Trolls are part of ecosystem Cheesy For proper balance, we need some trolls too, sometimes it gives a fresh perspective that what not to do in the critical situation,
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April 04, 2019, 05:17:29 AM

The way I see it is we move up to the -0.236 and over the $5.5k range upwards or we are going to fall off this cloud..perhaps spectacularly. Consolidation at the $5k range would also be a good sign though not as bullish. If we do fall back to a pattern of lower lows getting to a end of year 10k target diminish. I dont know about you but years end of 2019 is starting to feel  like its closing in and not so far off to me. Gainz will continue until moral improves. #dyor

D

#stronghands'19 
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April 04, 2019, 05:19:48 AM
Merited by mindrust (1)

Everyone expects the same as the last cycle or two.
I think that it would be different: something resembling 2013.

An approximate scenario: Hard up starting by the end of summer 2019, early fall (maybe 3.7K-6K oscillation beforehand), going much further than expected, could be 20K or even higher earlier in 2020 (Q1 or Q2), hard and fast correction to 7-8K, then re-acceleration into the end of 2020 with prices peaking at about 90-160K.
Dems take the Senate, introduce some wealth taxing legislation.
Bitcoin is in a hard correction during 2021-2022, maybe longer, a really long bear market (stock market is crashing as well).
Do you think that these neato 4-year cycles would continue forever?

TL;DR This would be a fast and furious cycle followed by a longer recession.
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April 04, 2019, 06:23:50 AM



 actual perceived value vs actual potential value
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April 04, 2019, 06:32:21 AM

I want that correction! Buy order ready at $4600:
A suggestion:   Don’t use round numbers for your limit orders. Put it $20 or $30 above because if the price is going to bounce, it will bounce above $xx00.  If the prices touches $xx00 then it’s going to drop below that amount.
It could eat though half the wall at $4600 and not drop below, but then your order depends on which of the $4600 orders are processed first by the exchange. at $4601 yours should be processed before all the $4600 orders.

Hairy is correct, as seems to be a frequent pattern in recent times with these price and practice matters.

In sum, best practice is that you should be setting your buy orders a bit higher than the round numbers and also your sell orders a bit lower than the round numbers.  

When you assert that price might possibly do x, y or z and half way eat through such round numbers blah blah blah.. you are being both intellectually lazy and likely more greedy than you need to be.    The odds are against you, too, especially if you look at how the BTC price usually behaves and even if you want to attempt to rationalize away your bad practice(s), seeming laziness and lack of desire to improve your approach.  

Yeah but if the wall is at 4620 you need to put your order in @4625 or something. Walls do tend to be on the round numbers but even the walls cut infront of eachother..
Look at the books to place your orders..

Even though I have a system in which I steadfastly follow what Hairy suggested, not placing either my buy orders or my sell orders at round numbers.  I rarely go so far as to structure my orders around random walls on the order book.. unless I just coincidentally notice such walls and I want to get my order filled before that wall is touched upon, as you suggested eddie. 

For me, I would rather just stick with my system that is based on my own attempts to keep emotions out of the matter, so I don't really care very much if the orders get filled or not.. .but like you mentioned if there is some obvious issue or even certain key resistance or support points, then I will attempt to tweak my orders around those kinds of possible sticking points.
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April 04, 2019, 06:44:03 AM
Merited by infofront (1)

Ginko has done it again :

https://twitter.com/martik/status/1113037703774396416
https://bitcoinist.com/russia-bitcoin-kremlin-economist/

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April 04, 2019, 06:51:55 AM
Last edit: April 04, 2019, 07:28:33 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by P_Shep (2), Paashaas (1), nutildah (1)

Still unanswered: How LN is going to help when Layer 1 is already clogged to the point of uselessness.

We will cross that bridge when we get there.  

If this price pump continues, we could get there next week. Unfortunately, there is no solution on the horizon under discussion.

You are fucking ridiculous on this point, jbreher.  Dumbass BIG BLOCKERS have been acting chicken little on this topic since at least late 2015, and they have been wrong, wrong wrong.. except to the extent to which they have engaged in some spam attacks to attempt to make it look like their wrong chicken little speculations were coming true.

And, get the fuck out of here with your exaggeration that there is no plan in BTC.. because with segwit and other tweaks including lightning network, batching and some other technical mumbo jumbo stuff, BTC transactions are getting processed... and fees also will adjust to help to channel and incentivize transactions too...

so fuck off in your attempting to act like there is neither progress in bitcoin or that there is some kind of supposed emergency situation in bitcoin that justifies a block increase - which is still not necessary, even though you and your dumb BIG blocker buddies keep trying to present such nonsense solutions to increase the block size limits as if they were "obvious solutions," and they are not.. they are just stupid.. and counter to any necessary solution.. you want to break bitcoin like you and your buddies broke your impotent bcash(es) variants?

You claim to be a bitcoiner, but I have to question you with your stubborn continued persistence spouting out such repetitive nonsense that has been debunked over and over and over in the past 3.5 years.  There is no there there.. so focus your lil selfie.   Angry Angry Angry


Once the blocks are full, no additional people can open a LN channel. Nobody can close an LN channel. (Not without out-paying those txs already waiting to be built into a block).

you are speculating about something that has never happened.. Even in December 2017/January 2018 (when your bitmain buddies and Roger Ver had enough money to engage in their spam attack), transactions still went through, as long as higher fees were paid... so if the fees might go up during such clogging periods.   By the way, funny how bitmain is now broke.. ver might not be doing so well.. and maybe still hoping for calvin ayere to keep haning out with you other social pariahs.

Nobody can post evidence of stolen channel funds as a result of counterparty posting an earlier channel state. Nobody can get BTC into or out of exchanges. ...

Let's see how it plays out... sounds like you are making shit up, for the moment.. so let's see if it becomes a BIGGER issue that is does not get resolved... Lots of smart people working and submitting ideas in bitcoin core, so they are likely to continue figuring out a variety of things as they already have been with the passage of time.. And maybe you should be discussing these technical matters in another thread, anyhow?  you fuck with attempts at technical mumbo jumbo, here.

All y'all are hanging your hopes on a promise that has no chance to deliver its stated benefits.

You and your BIG BLOCKER nutjob buddies have already proven yourselves to be inclined towards exaggerations about supposed dire outcomes, and likely going to happen again... with exaggerated points like you are making here.

Sure, LN will have important use cases. But at the cost of crippling the base layer? Collective delusion.

Of course, LN will have important use cases.. at least you recognize that aspect.. and if you think that there some kind of crippling then get the fuck out of here.  Don't use lightning then nor build upon it, and go over to your shitcoin (I mean various bcashes) projects to whine about how horrible bitcoin is, while bitcoin is going to leave those bcashes crappies in the dust in terms of innovations, development, adoption and even ongoing price performance..
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