Well you seem to be touching on two different topics, Raja.
One topic is regarding how much of the value of your BTC stash would you be willing to trade with, and another topic is what kinds of indicators you use to decide whether to get in or out.
This is how I see any trade or swinging: if there's a good indicator, trade with a big stash; however, if there's a bad or weak indicator, trade with a little stash.
Each of those are individualistic determinations, and I will let you know that I have a pretty decent proportion of my wealth in bitcoin as compared with my traditional investments (such as stocks and things like that), and I also have a very tiny percent into shitcoins. So only about 1% - maybe 2% upon favorable fluctuations, is in shit coins, and I find little to no value in trading any kind of shit coins.
Well, 10% of my whole BTC stash doesn't even make a complete half of a full bitcoin, so there's definitely a whole lot of difference in your way of thinking and in my way of thinking when it comes to the "percentage of BTC holding that you may risk on sh!tcoins". If my 10% holdings of BTC were equivalent to more than $50k or something, I'd probably not be thinking of risking much in alts as I know that they're similar to leveraged gambling; however, when that 10% makes less than $5k, I think it's fine to just go ahead and risk it as it's not a very big amount, especially when the swing setup is looking quite strong (at least to me).
During shitcoin pumpening season in 2017, there were guys (and maybe even a gal or two) who were putting nearly all of their bitcoins into shitcoins, and they did pretty decently (on paper) as long as they figured out a good time to get out. Some of them got burned too, because they could not figure out when to get out, so yeah, Raja, your suggestion that this is a good time to get into shitcoins based on expectations about market cap, might work out for you, but I personally believe that shit coin purging is going to continue for a quite a bit longer, but hey, I might be wrong, and surely there are a lot of arguments out there, currently, that alt coin pumpening season is coming is coming is coming, and yeah they might be right.. but then again, they might be desperately attempting to save their bag holdings of shit to stop bleeding so much, even though their bleeding is not yet close to being done.
We probably will never get to see another altseason as good as the one of 2017, which especially includes the bull runs of all those low-caps that pumped 1000x and more in January 2018. Even if you take a look at the top 5 coins (by market-cap), it's quite funny that:
-Ethereum: still no scaling, no sharding, no PoS, no 2.0.
-Ripple: lol, centralized
-Bitcoin Cash: lol, fake
-Litecoin: almost every sh!tcoin got more Github commits than LTC in the last few years.
-Binance Coin: overvalued, will probably also be categorized as security in the US as it fits in every category of Howey test.
...so ultimately, you come back to BTC. However, when you open and look at Bakkt's official website, you notice that everywhere they've mentioned "digital asset
s", which makes you realize that the crypto story doesn't really end up on BTC (I know this is quite irrelevant to this thread as it's made specifically for BTC maximalists, but this is just my opinion
).
When it comes to shitcoins, I am nearly a total chicken shit, so likely I am not the right person to ask regarding any of them, because even during their outrageous pumpening in 2017, I remained sufficiently happy with my mediocre 78x return on bitcoin value (from 2015 to late 2017).
"mediocre" 78x return
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