Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

One more BTC bull run and that's it. I'll be unemployed, living on passive income just like makrospex.

Merited, but bitcoin does not provide passive income, unless you are into rehypothecation games with blockfi, etc.
BTC is a hard money, but you need to exchange it to soft money to live off of (for now).

It's totally possible to replace a salary with interest payments on Bitcoin holdings without selling.
If you have held for enough years.
The only option I know is Celsius.

yes, blockfi and Celsius, but such interest is not "native" to bitcoin blockchain and comes from a third party re-hypothecating your btc that you "lend" to them.
Essentially, you have to assume that they don't go belly up somehow and would always return your btc.
Do you feel lucky, hodler?

That is true, you must investigate their reputation and trust them.

I've held since 2013, i feel like I earned the reward.  Superhuman patience is required that very few posses.

Freebitco.in gives you %4.08/year with a daily compounding interest. I have some bitcoins there. A bit risky but I am biting the bullet here.

I have been biting at the chomps about whether I should respond to this thread of conversation, and you surely have to weigh your risks when you put some of your BTC stash with some of those third party entities to "earn interest."

I can surely understand the urge to earn more BTC, but there is really no free lunch, and personally, I think that many peeps are going to be way the fuck better off to just accumulate as much BTC as you can by just buying it or any other reasonable way that is available to you without putting your principle at unnecessary risks.

Accordingly, if you are able to accumulate a sufficient amount of BTC, then you can live off of it's likely appreciation in value, which seems to be goddamned likely, especially if you have at least a 5 year timeline (3.5 years has been the historical bare minimum in BTC, but history does not guarantee future results). 

So, I am suggesting to accumulate enough that you can calculate a withdrawal rate that goes to a decent amount of years in your life that is likely to only affect maintenance levels of withdrawal of your BTC but then you can also go on a more aggressive withdrawal rate if you believe that your life is going to end at a certain period of time (which is likely difficult to measure with any kind of precision).

In previous posts, I have gone into detail about what I would consider to be a reasonable maintenance withdrawal rate, which is 1% per quarter.  Anyhow, you can apply BTC quantities to your own life style situation (or expectation of standard of living) to figure out how many BTC you would need in order to be able to sufficiently use BTC income to pay for all of your expenses or to supplement any other income that you might have in order to achieve a maintenance level of withdrawal versus a depletion of principle rate of withdrawal.  Of course the depletion of principle rate of withdrawal is the more aggressive of the withdrawal systems.

[Biodom]

I really like the look of this projected chart, especially the next ‘crash’ which shows the price at still over the current ATH. I can definitely live with that.

The problem with that chart is, the other 4 chars I shared were predicting $80-100k as the top, this one says it can go as high as $500k.

Where is the problem? If this one happens to be true and the others not, I won't be having enough btc to enjoy that  $500k. I know I'll be having at least 1, but is it enough?

People will he cashing out to lambos like there is no tomorrow once we go above 50-60k. I find it pretty unrealistic to see it going above $100k in this bull run but who knows... what if...

It seems that you should prepare for both realistically bullish and outlandish scenarios, including the possibility to that we reach $500k in the next cycle.

Based on my knowledge of your BTC holdings, to me, it does seem as if you would be selling too much if you are down to 1 BTC anywhere after (or above) $100k.  

On the other hand, it might end up working out for you to sell higher amounts, yet it seems that you gotta figure out what level is actually comfortable for you, even  if it seems extreme and unlikely to happen.

There were surely some BTC HODLers who thought that $5k was the absolute top in the 2017 cycle and maybe they had only 1BTC after that, but then they were then paralyzed in selling it above $10k too because they felt that they had already sold their stash or shot their wadd by too much and too early.

My current 'feel' is pretty much inline with planB major thesis.
Unless something happens to break it, I would use his graph as a guideline.
Predicted value is 55K at the halving, then slowly moving about 2-3 fold from there toward next halving.
However, going backwards, btc was "supposed' to be at $3700 when it peaked at almost 20K, so it was roughly 6X predicted.
Therefore, the range of the next ATH is most likely 55k-330K with about 180-190K mid range.
When to sell depends on when the true parabola starts going fast.

TL;DR If planB is correct, we are going to 55K-330K as the next ATH. Midrange target of 150-200K is very appealing, albeit I might sell some at 120K. t

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@Biodom
Give me some of that sweet, sweet HOPIUM 

[JayJuanGee]

Pointing in the right direction, let's go !!! BTC

I was about to send you a smerit for this lovely pic; however, I was not sure about the symbolism of it?  Does it mean top?  or a double top? 

TLDR:  looks simultaneously nice and scary

[Raja_MBZ]

.... well if it's this bullish and afternoon in china, just think of how bullish it will be in 4 hours.

Posters are saying that we will retest $420... but the price on stamp is NOT going below $430... so maybe we are going to bounce into the upper $400s before the weekend... no more test of the downward, maybe?  Price seems inclined to go up... at this point....

OMG, bitcoin is now below $420.

.
.
.

Oops, I mean below $10420.

[JayJuanGee]

is it safe to invest in btc now?

No.

It's never safe.

Better to hold onto dollars in order that you can pay your rent and buy your food.  That is safe.   





 

[SuperTA]

Altcoin dominance

Altcoins losing support. If the candle closes bellow this support it can go really bad for altcoins, possibly going to 20% dominance or even lower. You can see where the next support is, the green line bellow around 18%-20%.

[Biodom]

@Biodom
Give me some of that sweet, sweet HOPIUM  

that was not enough?  

in a fight between nice nippie pics and btc price projections, btc price wins for me, but I do appreciate the former.

[podyx]

is it safe to invest in btc now?

My guess is we'll be taking off to $50k+ in a few months

[GreatArkansas]

Daily Stochastic RSI of Bitcoin, almost the same as before, last July - August when it dumps from $13,000 to $9,300 and after it touched the bottom oversold area, it goes up to $12,000 area.
Touching bottom around $9,200 area almost 3 times since July.

[El duderino_]

#HODLsleep!!!

[SuperTA]

#HODLsleep!!!

[GreatArkansas]

Hourly trendline break out.

Possible pullback around $10,000 would be healthy for this, especially if we can now maintain above of 20 an 50 MA. The volume looks good and the current Bitcoin dominance is 70%.
#HODL

[Searing]

Pointing in the right direction, let's go !!! BTC

I was about to send you a smerit for this lovely pic; however, I was not sure about the symbolism of it?  Does it mean top?  or a double top? 

TLDR:  looks simultaneously nice and scary

I figure I need about $30k BTC to have a 'shot' at even getting dinner with her. Of course, she would have to be a Bitcoin Gold Digger.

Then again, I"m an old pervert for suggesting the above.

Meh! We all have our faults.

(Amazing how much more attractive I become to the world as Bitcoin goes up in price, go figure)

Brad

[HairyMaclairy]

2015 fractal that everyone loves to hate

[JSRAW]

#HODLsleep!!!

I am up.... 21 hours and counting  

~Snip
and it might even end up being on thursdays...   go figure.      

Sacrificing Bhai?

[HairyMaclairy]

Observing page 24,900.

Only 100 pages to go to 25 kilopages!

[degxtra1]

2015 fractal that everyone loves to hate

Not everyone
If this  amplification still hold we can expect 25K by end of October. Less than 60 days.
Crossing fingers.

[SuperTA]

Bitcoin Bull and Bear Cycles & halvings

from Chico Crypto

[GreatArkansas]

Here we go $11,000

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/cyv9yr/technical_analysis_reveals_danger_to_11k_castle/