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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.8%)
7/28 - 11 (9.1%)
8/4 - 16 (13.2%)
8/11 - 7 (5.8%)
8/18 - 6 (5%)
8/25 - 8 (6.6%)
After August - 72 (59.5%)
Total Voters: 121

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26484718 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
deadfi$h
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February 21, 2014, 01:30:05 AM
 #93121

Man I wish I had $1000 to play with on Gox. The risk/reward ratio is getting crazy.

At these prices there is no insolvency. They can just buy up their own coin, re-open, and increase their holdings 6 fold.
seleme
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February 21, 2014, 01:30:11 AM
 #93122

Lol, this is mental  Grin
oroboras
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February 21, 2014, 01:30:42 AM
 #93123



Well the good news is Gox can only go down about $93.

I hope it does - if it goes all the way, I'll have 165btc* for less than £0.01 Tongue



*that I would never see, or be able to withdraw, obviously XD
JorgeStolfi
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February 21, 2014, 01:30:49 AM
 #93124

Dear @windjc, could you please put me on "ignore"?  Thanks...
zakalwe
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February 21, 2014, 01:30:58 AM
 #93125

It's clearly happening something unusual. I can't believe ppl is selling at this price.
Arcas
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February 21, 2014, 01:31:12 AM
 #93126

Bitstamp is starting to topple as well.
bronco
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February 21, 2014, 01:31:28 AM
 #93127

will we see $0 on Gox?
JorgeStolfi
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February 21, 2014, 01:31:41 AM
Last edit: February 22, 2014, 01:02:30 AM by JorgeStolfi
 #93128

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for feb/20

The prediction for today Feb/20 (like that for Feb/10), was foiled by a Karpeles Catastrophe.

Prediction posted on: Tuesday 2014-02-18Wednesday 2014-02-19, 21:57 UTC
Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-02-19Thursday 2014-02-10, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Huobi's predicted price: 3800 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3530 CNY
Error: 270 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 621 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 585 USD
Error: 36 USD

However, Huobis's volume at 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC was 1186 BTC, which technically makes it a False Slumber Point and therefore
outside the scope of the Method.  On the other hand, volume in the next hour (20:00 -- 20:59 UTC) was only 146 BTC, which
is well below the Slumber thredhold of 500 BTC.

The Huobi prediction is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and prediction. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.


EDIT: fixed the date of posting (19, not 18) and prediction vaild for (20, not 19).
delaro
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February 21, 2014, 01:32:16 AM
 #93129

bitcoinbuilder down
adamstgBit
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February 21, 2014, 01:32:31 AM
 #93130

92.3 on gox

 Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked
Arcas
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February 21, 2014, 01:33:06 AM
 #93131

92.3 on gox

 Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked
Bitstamp is beginning to react as well. This could be a long evening.
TeeBone
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February 21, 2014, 01:33:33 AM
 #93132

CHOO-CHOO MOTHAFOS !! ROFL
HairyMaclairy
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February 21, 2014, 01:33:38 AM
 #93133

Still 0.367 on bitcoin builder. Madness.
windjc
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February 21, 2014, 01:33:52 AM
 #93134

Dear @windjc, could you please put me on "ignore"?  Thanks...

Done my friend.
Dragonkiller
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Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Available Now!


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February 21, 2014, 01:33:58 AM
 #93135

lol the professor that predicted $10 bitcoins might end up being right
deadfi$h
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February 21, 2014, 01:34:08 AM
 #93136

What's the strategy for people selling on Gox? Surely it's smarter to keep the money in BTC at these prices vs gamble that they can get a fiat withdrawal to go through any time soon.
shmadz
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February 21, 2014, 01:34:14 AM
 #93137

Twas the night before Goxxing, when all through Mark's house
Not a feature was working, not even Mark's mouse
The bitcoin were slung through trades with despair,
In hopes that St. Solvency soon would be there

-snip-

Beautiful

Agreed. Had to quote this to make it easier for me to find, I suspect I will read this through many times...


Thank you humanitee, it gave me many a chuckle.
HairyMaclairy
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February 21, 2014, 01:34:35 AM
 #93138

bitcoinbuilder down

Maybe he has the brains to call a trading halt.  
JorgeStolfi
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February 21, 2014, 01:34:43 AM
 #93139

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Feb/21

Today Feb/20, Huobi's volume for 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC (3:00--3:59 AM China time) was 1186 BTC, which makes it a False Slumber day

Today also, prices were badly affected by the second Karpeles Catastrophe -- another disappointing press release bt MtGOX.

Given the last fact, it would be wiser not to make any prediction for tomorrow Feb/21.  Since we are not wise, we may risk it anyway, and in fact and offer two predictions.

One alternative hypothesis is that the large drop in prices we saw today is temporary, and tomorrow's Slumber Point, if True, will fall near the trend of of the last 10 days.  Such a recovery of the trend line after a False Slumber Point was observed after the episodes of Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17.  The current trend can be modeled as the straight line P(i) = 4373.18 - 28.64*i, where i is the day's number in February. Setting i = 21 gives ~3772 CNY.

Another possibility is that today's drop is permanent --- like the drop by ~300 CNY on Feb/10, after the First Karpeles Catastrophe.  In that case, there seems to be no way of estimating the magnitude of the drop, and the subsequent slope.

The prediction for Bitstamp, as usual, can be obtained from that of Huobi using the currency factor R = 6.12 CNY/USD.

So, under the first hypothesis, we have

Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-02-21, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price:  3772 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 616 USD.



NOTE: To Man it was not given to know his Fate, and the Time of his Death; nor those of Bitcoin.
solex
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February 21, 2014, 01:35:01 AM
 #93140

92.3 on gox

 Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

I'm getting sick of gox. I just want it to disappear now.
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