Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Feb/21Today Feb/20, Huobi's volume for 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC (3:00--3:59 AM China time) was 1186 BTC, which makes it a False Slumber day
Today also, prices were badly affected by the second Karpeles Catastrophe -- another disappointing press release bt MtGOX.
Given the last fact, it would be wiser not to make any prediction for tomorrow Feb/21. Since we are not wise, we may risk it anyway, and in fact and offer
two predictions.
One alternative hypothesis is that the large drop in prices we saw today is temporary, and tomorrow's Slumber Point, if True, will fall near the trend of of the last 10 days. Such a recovery of the trend line after a False Slumber Point was observed after the episodes of Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17. The current trend can be modeled as the straight line P(i) = 4373.18 - 28.64*i, where i is the day's number in February. Setting i = 21 gives ~3772 CNY.
Another possibility is that today's drop is permanent --- like the drop by ~300 CNY on Feb/10, after the First Karpeles Catastrophe. In that case, there seems to be no way of estimating the magnitude of the drop, and the subsequent slope.
The prediction for Bitstamp, as usual, can be obtained from that of Huobi using the currency factor R = 6.12 CNY/USD.
So, under the first hypothesis, we have
Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-02-21, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3772 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 616 USD.
NOTE: To Man it was not given to know his Fate, and the Time of his Death; nor those of Bitcoin.
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