Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

Gox dies -> people replace their lost coins on stamp -> stamp goes up  or those people are then broke or are disinterested in bitcoin
Gox lives -> no more cheap goxcoins to compete with -> stamp goes up  cheap goxcoins will be flooding the rest of the market

[aminorex]

AFAIK it crashed once already, from ~5000 all the way down to 1, is that right?

(I came in late, the second bubble was already underway.)

That's right.  These bubbles always crash.  BTW, I'll make you a nice deal on some forum page count put options, if you're interested.

[schizoid]

Gox dies -> people replace their lost coins on stamp -> stamp goes up  or those people are then broke or are disinterested in bitcoin

Some will be, some won't. Those who won't will drive the stamp price higher.

Gox lives -> no more cheap goxcoins to compete with -> stamp goes up  cheap goxcoins will be flooding the rest of the market

If Gox enables withdrawals, goxcoins will no longer be cheap. This will happen almost instantly.

Once this Gox crap is resolved either way, stamp is going up.

[TERA]

If Gox enables withdrawals, goxcoins will no longer be cheap. This will happen almost instantly.

The cheap goxcoins will be the ones that people are already holding. They bought at 90-300 and never sold them.

[oda.krell]

But there's another observation that shouldn't be ignored: gox and stamp prices (to pick out the 2 big Western exchanges) have always been highly correlated. There's a large gap between absolute prices, but the correlation still exists (although I suspect it is lower now than it was 1 year ago -- I should look at this again).

That said, here's the observation: in the last week or two, it was apparent that stamp was rather reluctant to follow gox in its tumble to zero. There is no "instrumental" reason I can think of (as in: some obvious way for automated trading profiting on stable prices on stamp vs. falling prices on gox), so large scale manipulation non-withstanding (which I am always rather sceptical about as an explanation), I consider another interpreation:

The crash on gox revealed buying pressure that lay dormant in the otherwise "overpriced" market. Similar to how the SR closure started the rally, because it revealed the pent up buying pressure by bringing price temporarily low enough for the sideline fiat to enter.

Note that I'm unconvinced the 2nd explanation is the right one. I'm just pointing out that I *can* see another way for the price difference to resolve, other than the other exchanges being brought down by cheap gox btc.

That may be for the long run, after the dust settles, but the next days after (if?) MtGox is alive again it will be a bloodbath out there, I can't see any other option:

- Huge gap waiting to be closed (it won't be only Gox going to 600+, a lot of people want to be out of there ASAP).
- People scared with 90%+ of their money on BTCGox (there are a LOT of people like this) going to a more 50% fiat 50% BTC
- Huge warning these days of things that can go wrong on BTC world, result: People cashing benefits on relieable markets
- Few new money entering BTC world with all this "noise".
- ...

I'm bullish on the long run. And with long I mean +2 years, but next weeks (Gox dies or Gox resumes withdrawals, it's the same) are going to be RED on other markets.

Well, there you have the difference between us then: You are already _sure_ about what will happen, and I am not, and am willing to wait another day or two of more volume to see what reopening of withdrawals entails. Time will tell which strategy was the better one.

[schizoid]

If Gox enables withdrawals, goxcoins will no longer be cheap. This will happen almost instantly.

The cheap goxcoins will be the ones that people are already holding. They bought at 90-300 and never sold them.

And they will be worth $800 on gox. So why will they sell below $620 on stamp?

[KaTXi]

Well, there you have the difference between us then: You are already _sure_ about what will happen, and I am not, and am willing to wait another day or two of more volume to see what reopening of withdrawals entails. Time will tell which strategy was the better one.

Dude, if I were that sure I'd bet my house  
No, in Bitcoinland you are never sure of anything, a new surprise can come out (Bitstamp has the same problems than Gox, US considers terrorists all BTC holders...). What I'm saying is that if everything goes NORMAL (and that is a BIG if), prices should go down as soon as Gox reopens.

[TERA]

If Gox enables withdrawals, goxcoins will no longer be cheap. This will happen almost instantly.

The cheap goxcoins will be the ones that people are already holding. They bought at 90-300 and never sold them.

And they will be worth $800 on gox. So why will they sell below $620 on stamp?

They don't trust gox withdrawal and would rather get the hell out of gox and use stamp withdrawal which is more reliable and faster. Their profit is already so big they don't need to be greedy.

[magicmexican]

If Gox enables withdrawals, goxcoins will no longer be cheap. This will happen almost instantly.

The cheap goxcoins will be the ones that people are already holding. They bought at 90-300 and never sold them.

And they will be worth $800 on gox. So why will they sell below $620 on stamp?

They don't trust gox withdrawal and would rather get the hell out of gox and use stamp withdrawal which is more reliable and faster. Their profit is already so big they don't need to be greedy.

Nice assumption

[schizoid]

If Gox enables withdrawals, goxcoins will no longer be cheap. This will happen almost instantly.

The cheap goxcoins will be the ones that people are already holding. They bought at 90-300 and never sold them.

And they will be worth $800 on gox. So why will they sell below $620 on stamp?

They don't trust gox withdrawal and would rather get the hell out of gox and use stamp withdrawal which is more reliable and faster. Their profit is already so big they don't need to be greedy.

If they weren't greedy and didn't trust gox they wouldn't have sent their fiat to gox to buy the coins in the first place.

[JorgeStolfi]

I am still confused.  From the comments in that reddit thread, I understood that there is not a single bit of new news about MtGOX: they did not start testing, they did not resume withdrawals, there have been no reports from them or anything.  Did I understand it wrong?

[TERA]

If Gox enables withdrawals, goxcoins will no longer be cheap. This will happen almost instantly.

The cheap goxcoins will be the ones that people are already holding. They bought at 90-300 and never sold them.

And they will be worth $800 on gox. So why will they sell below $620 on stamp?

They don't trust gox withdrawal and would rather get the hell out of gox and use stamp withdrawal which is more reliable and faster. Their profit is already so big they don't need to be greedy.

If they weren't greedy and didn't trust gox they wouldn't have sent their fiat to gox to buy the coins in the first place.

You're talking about taking a risk for a 700% gain v.s. taking a risk for a 10% gain. They are willing to do the former but not that latter. Or perhaps even they had the fiat on gox from a long time ago when they used to trust gox.

[elasticband]

Gox dies -> people replace their lost coins on stamp -> stamp goes up  or those people are then broke or are disinterested in bitcoin
Gox lives -> no more cheap goxcoins to compete with -> stamp goes up  cheap goxcoins will be flooding the rest of the market

people have bought bitcoins lower thn $90 and have held, there is nothing to say all people will dump cheap gox coins. I do think we are likely to be pushed downward meet in the middle though.

[creekbore]

I am still confused.  From the comments in that reddit thread, I understood that there is not a single bit of new news about MtGOX: they did not start testing, they did not resume withdrawals, there have been no reports from them or anything.  Did I understand it wrong?

Jorge, if it's on REDDIT then it's true, absolutely, 100% certainty -- it's new technology and you just wouldn't understand.

[Vigil]

I am still confused.  From the comments in that reddit thread, I understood that there is not a single bit of new news about MtGOX: they did not start testing, they did not resume withdrawals, there have been no reports from them or anything.  Did I understand it wrong?

No. A bunch of whales just decided to take the risk and buy up.

[T.Stuart]

I am still confused.  From the comments in that reddit thread, I understood that there is not a single bit of new news about MtGOX: they did not start testing, they did not resume withdrawals, there have been no reports from them or anything.  Did I understand it wrong?

I think that a day ago people started to wake up to the fact that they might have been blinded by the sweeping negative emotion against Gox.

Not saying that everything will be OK there of course...

Also people waking up to easy arbitrage opportunities.

[Yololintian]

Anyone who doesn't realize some of their 300-700% profit made in one week is nuts imo.

[schizoid]

I am still confused.  From the comments in that reddit thread, I understood that there is not a single bit of new news about MtGOX: they did not start testing, they did not resume withdrawals, there have been no reports from them or anything.  Did I understand it wrong?

I read somewhere that the new gox transactions contain gox's custom txid. That suggests they are trying to fix the malleability problem instead of preparing for bankruptcy.

[equipoise]

MT Gox's green address used internally for customer BTC withdrawals is active for the first time in 2 weeks!

https://blockchain.info/address/1LNWw6yCxkUmkhArb2Nf2MPw6vG7u5WG7q

5 million bitcoins have gone through this address in the last 3 years, so it is very significant.

The transaction was confirmed: https://blockchain.info/address/1LNWw6yCxkUmkhArb2Nf2MPw6vG7u5WG7q

[Mythul]

This is either a giant bull trap or bear trap....can't decide