Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AlcoHoDL]

(I know backing up is for coward pussies but still I beg to differ)

i know what an idiot i am. thus, like a squirrel who buries nuts all over the place, i count on at least finding one good backup somewhere.

in all seriousness though the rule of 3s (i think its called) 3 backups on 2 different media, one of which is offsite. and i dont count "the cloud" as any of those.

i do rolling backups so they go back quiet a ways.

Forgive me if I've droned on about it in this thread before, but one time I had a laptop stolen with wallets for anywhere between $15k and $40k worth of coins. This was in 2015. During the peak of the bull run it was closer to $200k.

I did make a backup indeed; however, my backup was on a USB stick contained in the laptop case, which was also stolen.   I can look up my coin addresses in their respective block explorers, and see my balances just sitting there, laughing at me.

I guess the moral of the story is, don't keep your backups all in one place, and yes, the offsite idea is a good one. There's no shame in burying your nuts in different places.

Yeah, man, that must really suck... Watching those addresses for any movement... Seeing the funds are safu, but not accessible. Damn!

This reminds me of the story of a guy in the UK who dumped (as in threw away in the trash) a computer in which there was a hard drive containing around $5M worth of coins. Just a guess on the actual number, can't remember exactly, but it was in the order of millions of dollars IIRC. He went at the huge landfill where they dump the loads of trash from the city, desperately looking for that damned drive. I don't think he ever found it.

tl;dr: Always backup, and always keep your backups in separate physical places from each other and from the source.

Edit: I think this is the story.

[lightfoot]

This whole concept is scary af...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-experts-suggest-using-blockchain-tech-in-social-credit-system

The social credit system establishes a score representative of every citizen’s trustworthiness. The score is largely influenced by artificial intelligence and the processing of data from the millions of CCTV cameras installed in mainland China.

....

In mid-November last year, Andre Szykier, the CTO at Bitcoin ATM operator Blockchain BTM, suggested that cryptocurrency speculation will likely negatively influence one’s social credit rating.

Pretty cool concept: Government can just round up the troublemakers with little effort.

[Globb0]

If that 4% thing is right and you have enough coins. You can get 4% from freebitcoin

So you could withdraw the 4% eternally without degrading the principle at all

Oh and without the 20x longs

Would you really put all your Bitcoin stash there to earn that 4% and be confident that they will be safu during all of your remaining lifetime?

Guess not.

Also that doesn't mitigate the volatility risk nor the catastrophic event one. You still have all your eggs in the same single asset and just add a great lot of third party risk.

I thought one of the goals of "retiring" was to be able to sleep at night.

Sure no risk in margin trading. Right.

[bkbirge]

This whole concept is scary af...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-experts-suggest-using-blockchain-tech-in-social-credit-system

The social credit system establishes a score representative of every citizen’s trustworthiness. The score is largely influenced by artificial intelligence and the processing of data from the millions of CCTV cameras installed in mainland China.
....
In mid-November last year, Andre Szykier, the CTO at Bitcoin ATM operator Blockchain BTM, suggested that cryptocurrency speculation will likely negatively influence one’s social credit rating.

Pretty cool concept: Government can just round up the troublemakers with little effort.

LOL, I know right? Glorious future make happy. I can't wait for the time when our credit rating is affected by our social rating. Or HR managers can search the blockchain for the last time you double parked so they can modify their offer accordingly. This is next level pod people stuff. OTOH, it can dovetail nicely into cultures with strong caste systems, don't want those uppity Ahirs marrying into the Kallars, so there is that. 

[dragonvslinux]

Weekly MACD close to a bull-cross (first time since February 2019, that would confirm a long-term trend change):



Daily MACD losing bearish momentum now heading towards bear-cross (notice the potential for a single candle fakeout 17/12/19 and 24/10/2019):



Monthly MACD bear-crossed (but is now trying to bull-cross again the following month creating potential as well for a "macd fakeout")



Weekly bulls vs Daily bears and exhausted Monthly bears. Still waiting for volatility given the indecision on different time-frames...
Also, don't trust the macd, clearly it can give out "fake" signals

[jojo69]

This whole concept is scary af...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-experts-suggest-using-blockchain-tech-in-social-credit-system

The social credit system establishes a score representative of every citizen’s trustworthiness. The score is largely influenced by artificial intelligence and the processing of data from the millions of CCTV cameras installed in mainland China.

....

In mid-November last year, Andre Szykier, the CTO at Bitcoin ATM operator Blockchain BTM, suggested that cryptocurrency speculation will likely negatively influence one’s social credit rating.

Pretty cool concept: Government can just round up the troublemakers with little effort.

"round up" ??

why bother?  have the AI dispatch an elimination drone algorithmically.  Take those pesky human operators and their silly consciences out of the equation entirely.

[lightfoot]

LOL, I know right? Glorious future make happy. I can't wait for the time when our credit rating is affected by our social rating. Or HR managers can search the blockchain for the last time you double parked so they can modify their offer accordingly. This is next level pod people stuff. OTOH, it can dovetail nicely into cultures with strong caste systems, don't want those uppity Ahirs marrying into the Kallars, so there is that. 

Great point! I didn't even think about linking it into the marriage certification process. It's like breeding wolves into nice obedient dogs.

Hm...

[LUCKMCFLY]

I think Bitcoin is leveling up, more and more adoption ...

Is bitcoin's price rising steadily with an occasional bubble or is it leveling up every 4 years?

Source: https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1220031106986078211

[fillippone]

I have been to a local Bitcoin meet-up this evening.
Host/Valet: Giacomo Zucco
Special Guest: Saifedean Ammous.
I think you know the guy.



Best quote of the night:

“The most subversive thing you can to with bitcoin is saving”

 ❤ï¸�#nohomo

That was great!

Edit: the concept has been told a few times:

"The only crime you should do with Bitcoin is saving and that's the most powerful of the crimes"
@saifedean

https://twitter.com/mir_btc/status/1219341317500821505?s=21

In case you are interested:
here you can find the slides:

The Fiat Standard - Saifedean Ammous

And the video:
https://www.facebook.com/BlockchainEduIT/videos/867427720365144/
(fast forward after Mir and other introductory talks if you don't speak Italian.Saif presentation is in English and starting around 14:00 mark)

[bitserve]

If that 4% thing is right and you have enough coins. You can get 4% from freebitcoin

So you could withdraw the 4% eternally without degrading the principle at all

Oh and without the 20x longs

Would you really put all your Bitcoin stash there to earn that 4% and be confident that they will be safu during all of your remaining lifetime?

Guess not.

Also that doesn't mitigate the volatility risk nor the catastrophic event one. You still have all your eggs in the same single asset and just add a great lot of third party risk.

I thought one of the goals of "retiring" was to be able to sleep at night.

Sure no risk in margin trading. Right.

Maybe we are talking about different things. Why would you want to margin trade?

Also, people that margin trade do it because they hope to gain orders of magnitude more than that 4% yearly. Of course most end just losing eventually.

[erre]

If that 4% thing is right and you have enough coins. You can get 4% from freebitcoin

So you could withdraw the 4% eternally without degrading the principle at all

Oh and without the 20x longs

I still somewhat trust freebitco.in and i'm an early adopter and user of that site (my referral number is 78, if someone want to subscribe ).
From 2013 I roll the free dice every now and then, and I hope a day I will win the big price. Imho the best faucet around.

But when they started to accept money they became shady, they say they are mining to cover user's profits but a cloud mining operation with 4% fix annual profit for everyone (compounded daily) is even more shady. And during the last year they also started taking bets and all kind of promotions and services.

I won't put my stash there.

[El duderino_]

Only 1k350bucks away from 4-dig.....

Let us crooze right into there

[Dabs]

If you read about the 4% rule (of thumb) ... I think in one link it says that not spending it all is also considered a failure, or being too conservative or safe. I say the more money you keep with you even if you can't spend it yourself (your heirs certainly can), then wouldn't that be better? Maybe for them, not for you if you're dead.

Still, that is why some people have modified their withdrawal rate to less than 4%. Maybe 3.5% or 3%. Some people focus on just dividends and earnings and leave their equity and capital untouched. That's another way of looking at it.

About the only thing common with traditional financial fiat investments are that, plenty of them HODL too. They keep their stuff for decades.

[JayJuanGee]

JJG, it's Thursday.
Well, according to @jupiter9, where else? - in Jupiter of course.

His level of dumb is kind of funny.  Gotta give him that, I suppose...  

You just can't see what Jupiter9 does, it's all clearly written in the sky!
OPen your eyes and you will see (and believe)...


EDIT: Wait, i think the effect of my acid is fading out. Shit, the writings are gone too, now

Well, yeah, it is seeing and feeling.  

He is dealing with invisible gravitational force fields and all of that, too... so much beyond merely seeing.  


Much more powerful than any of us non-believers is capable of comprehending, and he is connected with a specialty area that just analyses the profundity of this accurate yet frequently subliminal information.

Many of us are in pure denial about the level of importance that needs be placed upon such woo woo force fields.

Probably the market needs those kinds of people.. I suppose.  

To the extent that they are actually acting on their bullshit ideas about how the world works (such as putting finances behind their woo woo conceptions), some of them might get lucky in their lives and even reach fortunes based on one or two lucky calls (as long as they do not continue to bet on those kinds of things), but probably the vast majority of them who actually put money behind their bets get caught by their likely to be much worse than martingale betting style and are just continually giving their money to much more grounded people.  So in the end, it is quite likely that most of them have little to no money to actually pump into such bullshit ideas, and instead they are largely talk rather than actually acting upon their phoney baloney nonsense that would not really work in the real world - beyond mere coincidence from time to time.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

People seriously leave their BTC long term on a random centralized website where they don’t control the private keys just to get a reported 4% interest?

You can get over 100% profits quite regularly just by HODLING.

Fuck that!

Not your keys, not your BTC!

[JayJuanGee]

We only are serious when it comes to WO 

We become more serious when members start to spread fucktwat ideas in the thread to seriously suggest all or nothing trading (such as selling all your BTC) or getting meaningfully involved in any kind of shitcoin.. beyond playing around a little because it might possibly perform better than bitcoin in the short term.

Cannot be nice to members who propagate reckless practices in regard to BTC holdings, even if they might be engaging in such reckless practices themselves.   Could that be called spreading dumb?  which is not tolerable.. and even roach might be more tolerable than that because at least the vast majority of people understand that it is reckless in and of itself to take any of the ideas of an actual bug seriously.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Risk and Performance, interesting thinking of PlanB

#bitcoin risk & return (-74% & 206%) is off the chart!
Looking at 50 years price data: bonds, gold and stocks are on the same risk & return line, consistent with EMH and CAPM. But bitcoin is far above that line. IMO that is the reason why the market overestimated bitcoin risk.

Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1220055061235216384

[StartupAnalyst]

People seriously leave their BTC on a random centralized website where they don’t control the private keys just to get a reported 4% interest?

You can get over 100% profits quite regularly just by HODLING.

Fuck that!

Not your keys, not your BTC!

Sometimes human greed forces people to do very stupid things...

Recently, I myself almost got into such trouble, did not want to pay the intermediaries for imported goods from Europe and decided to buy in my country at a lower price, but already in use. They tried to sell me a VERY high quality Chinese copy, but I was lucky and I realized it was not the original! 

[Paashaas]

https://twitter.com/WhalePanda/status/1220061533058883584

[LFC_Bitcoin]

https://twitter.com/WhalePanda/status/1220061533058883584

Imminent BCH crash?

Edit - Just looked, it’s up over 70% in 30 days!

WAT